Round 21 (finals week 1) trades

[Rancid_Beasties]

#1 in my league, playing a team that is clearly better (on average) than mine.

uniques before trades are:

lower, birchall, rockliff, bartel, hale, pavlich, rioli (anticipated 628)

vs

heppell, adcock, montagna, m.murphy, lobbe, s.johnson, s.chapman (anticipated 661)

We both have petrie out so we are both relying on our backups.

POSSIBLE TRADES ($139.8k in the bank):

1. Lower to Suckling (for +16 points, -$26.3)
Lower is in such good form, and the other premium backs, including Suckling, so erratic, that I am contemplating leaving him as is.
2. Petrie to McEvoy (for +19 points, -$8k, based on Hale's recent form as I've bumped his expected average up to 75, actually averages 67)
I think this is probably the move I have "locked in"... I have hale, lobbe and petrie all playing and with hale being $70k less and lobbe being $140k less.
3. Rioli to S.Johnson (for +24 points, -$93.2k)
This is an insanely high risk move, if I lose I will have to deal with SJ's bye next week. But I cancel out the risk SJ scores 170 again and destroys me. I have showed so much faith to Cyril but he just hasn't repaid it.
4.Bartel to S.Thompson (for +11 points, -$19.1k) probably the best move in terms of covering my bases in case I lose this week.

What are peoples thoughts? Do I go for 1 and 4 and probably cop a loss this week, but set myself up for next week? Or do I go the no guts, no glory option (2 and 3)?

 

[AJP123]

Considering:

OUT: Hibberd, Prestia
IN: Suckling, Callinan.

4 Trades left, 77.5K in the bank

This is just a matter of if, not when. Sadly, I came fifth in my main league, one more game won and I would have pipped Dr DT by Percentage. Having said that, assuming he loses, I should have an easy Semi-final win against him next week.

Given I'm going for a league win from the unlikely position of fifth, I'm trying to figure out if it's worth saving my trades this week, then upping the ante next week. Reason for this is that if I bring Suckling in this week, he replaces Heppell or a premium on my back bench - not too much of a points increase. Next week, however, he'll definitely be needed - Enright cover. Having said that, if I do that (double-trade as above next week), I can't bring in GAJ for Bartel next week like I'd been planning to do.

I guess the only advantage in waiting to trade next week is if one of my premiums goes down with a LTI - that might affect my trading. Or is such a safety precaution purely a mirage?

 

[Waspy79]

If you are in an elimination final it is not the time to conserve trades... bring in Suckling.

My conundrum is if I don't hold on to Bailey as my second ruck, which ruckman should I be bringing in this week and for the remainder of the season to replace him (I have Cox as my first ruck)?

Sandilands
Mumford
McEvoy
Jacobs
Leunberger

Other?

 

[Glenno23]

If you are in an elimination final it is not the time to conserve trades... bring in Suckling.

My conundrum is if I don't hold on to Bailey as my second ruck, which ruckman should I be bringing in this week and for the remainder of the season to replace him (I have Cox as my first ruck)?

Sandilands
Mumford
McEvoy
Jacobs
Leunberger

Other?

Mummy or McEvoy. Sandi's toe could go again

I am using my last 2 trades this week. In Elimination finals, so need to be agressive. Have all bench players (bar ruck) playing and look safe job wise.

Need to downgrade a back (Lower, Heppell or Puop) all will give me the money i need to do the upgrade. The beauty of the upgrade is, it will allow me to move Petrie back to 2nd ruck next week and keep Lobbe on the bench as back up for the last 3 weeks

Can't go Chappy, as i already have Selwood in mids and SJ up forward, next 2 highest priced are Pav or Cloke.

Questions: Who do i trade out? keeping in mind, i will need some backline back up in PF if i make it, as i have Scotland and Gibbs in backs

Puops: lowest average recently
Heppell: GF bye, but scoring the best atm, would be good cover in PF
Lower: very consistent

Wjo do i trade in:

Pav: Gives me another MPP and more wiggle room with 0 trades
Cloke: Higher roof?

Cheers

 

[dopesayo]

#1 in my league, playing a team that is clearly better (on average) than mine.

uniques before trades are:

lower, birchall, rockliff, bartel, hale, pavlich, rioli (anticipated 628)

vs

heppell, adcock, montagna, m.murphy, lobbe, s.johnson, s.chapman (anticipated 661)

We both have petrie out so we are both relying on our backups.

POSSIBLE TRADES ($139.8k in the bank):

1. Lower to Suckling (for +16 points, -$26.3)
Lower is in such good form, and the other premium backs, including Suckling, so erratic, that I am contemplating leaving him as is.
2. Petrie to McEvoy (for +19 points, -$8k, based on Hale's recent form as I've bumped his expected average up to 75, actually averages 67)
I think this is probably the move I have "locked in"... I have hale, lobbe and petrie all playing and with hale being $70k less and lobbe being $140k less.
3. Rioli to S.Johnson (for +24 points, -$93.2k)
This is an insanely high risk move, if I lose I will have to deal with SJ's bye next week. But I cancel out the risk SJ scores 170 again and destroys me. I have showed so much faith to Cyril but he just hasn't repaid it.
4.Bartel to S.Thompson (for +11 points, -$19.1k) probably the best move in terms of covering my bases in case I lose this week.

What are peoples thoughts? Do I go for 1 and 4 and probably cop a loss this week, but set myself up for next week? Or do I go the no guts, no glory option (2 and 4)?

definitly go options 1 and 4, or just go option 1 and trade rioli to somebody else like o'keefe, fyfe or franklin

Mummy or McEvoy. Sandi's toe could go again

I am using my last 2 trades this week. In Elimination finals, so need to be agressive. Have all bench players (bar ruck) playing and look safe job wise.

Need to downgrade a back (Lower, Heppell or Puop) all will give me the money i need to do the upgrade. The beauty of the upgrade is, it will allow me to move Petrie back to 2nd ruck next week and keep Lobbe on the bench as back up for the last 3 weeks

Can't go Chappy, as i already have Selwood in mids and SJ up forward, next 2 highest priced are Pav or Cloke.

Questions: Who do i trade out? keeping in mind, i will need some backline back up in PF if i make it, as i have Scotland and Gibbs in backs

Puops: lowest average recently
Heppell: GF bye, but scoring the best atm, would be good cover in PF
Lower: very consistent

Wjo do i trade in:

Pav: Gives me another MPP and more wiggle room with 0 trades
Cloke: Higher roof?

Cheers

id trade out puops and trade in cloke

 

[Noobz0r]

How are the rest of the matchups looking?

I'm listed first:

Goddard v Lower
Adcock v Heppell

Pendlebury v Judd
S Thompson v Bartel
Montagna v Mitchell

O'Keefe v Goodes
Sylvia v Higgins
Rioli v S Johnson

 

[Rancid_Beasties]

definitly go options 1 and 4, or just go option 1 and trade rioli to somebody else like o'keefe, fyfe or franklin

I'm actually now leaning towards 1 and 2, but trading out hale for mcevoy instead of petrie. That way I get to keep petrie as cover for bartel in the second week (and a choice as to whether to play rioli in the 3rd and 4th week of finals). +35 points this week to catch up to my opponent on averages, and cover for bartel in the second week. Sounds like the most balanced option right?

 

[faisan]

Ok guys I need some help.

I have 4 trades and $219k in the bank.

I need to upgrade 1 more back and also find someone to cover Petrie. My rucks are Cox, Petrie, Vardy, and Keefe right now.

I am ranked 1st and 2nd in my leagues and really want to win to avoid the Geelong bye. My opponents have Cox/McEvoy and Cox/Smith/Bailey as their rucks

so I have cut my options down to 3 main ones:

Option 1 - trade Petrie -> McEvoy, and Hibberd to best DEF (Broughton/Suckling)

Option 2 - keep Petrie and trade Vardy -> Jolly, and Hibberd -> Birchall

Option 3 - keep Petrie and trade Vardy -> Ryder, and Hibberd -> Suckling

If I keep Petrie, I can swing one of my DPP forwards into my midfield to cover Marc Murphy in week 3 finals. I can then use my last 2 trades to sideways Gibbs and Heppell (if I make it that far)

What would you do? I would really prefer Suckling to Birchall but cant afford him if I get Jolly. Is Ryder too big a risk?

Or should I bring in McEvoy and Broughton and play one of my rookies in week 3 or 4?

 

[tragicforces]

Looking to upgrade Z Smith and S Buckley this week. I have $120k.

Who are the better options.

1. Leuenberger and Fisher
2. Jolly and Deledio
3. McEvoy and cheap back like Johncock
4. Mummy and Fisher
5. Any ruck and play Lower off the bench

Leaning towards option 1. Lower's average at Subi is not great. He gets all his big scores playing away.

 

[tragicforces]

I'd go option 1. Option 2 too big a risk and 3 means you'll have cover problems in re 24

Ok guys I need some help.

I have 4 trades and $219k in the bank.

I need to upgrade 1 more back and also find someone to cover Petrie. My rucks are Cox, Petrie, Vardy, and Keefe right now.

I am ranked 1st and 2nd in my leagues and really want to win to avoid the Geelong bye. My opponents have Cox/McEvoy and Cox/Smith/Bailey as their rucks

so I have cut my options down to 3 main ones:

Option 1 - trade Petrie -> McEvoy, and Hibberd to best DEF (Broughton/Suckling)

Option 2 - keep Petrie and trade Vardy -> Jolly, and Hibberd -> Birchall

Option 3 - keep Petrie and trade Vardy -> Ryder, and Hibberd -> Suckling

If I keep Petrie, I can swing one of my DPP forwards into my midfield to cover Marc Murphy in week 3 finals. I can then use my last 2 trades to sideways Gibbs and Heppell (if I make it that far)

What would you do? I would really prefer Suckling to Birchall but cant afford him if I get Jolly. Is Ryder too big a risk?

Or should I bring in McEvoy and Broughton and play one of my rookies in week 3 or 4?

 

[SloppyJoe]

#1 in my league, playing a team that is clearly better (on average) than mine.

uniques before trades are:

lower, birchall, rockliff, bartel, hale, pavlich, rioli (anticipated 628)

vs

heppell, adcock, montagna, m.murphy, lobbe, s.johnson, s.chapman (anticipated 661)

We both have petrie out so we are both relying on our backups.

POSSIBLE TRADES ($139.8k in the bank):

1. Lower to Suckling (for +16 points, -$26.3)
Lower is in such good form, and the other premium backs, including Suckling, so erratic, that I am contemplating leaving him as is.
2. Petrie to McEvoy (for +19 points, -$8k, based on Hale's recent form as I've bumped his expected average up to 75, actually averages 67)
I think this is probably the move I have "locked in"... I have hale, lobbe and petrie all playing and with hale being $70k less and lobbe being $140k less.
3. Rioli to S.Johnson (for +24 points, -$93.2k)
This is an insanely high risk move, if I lose I will have to deal with SJ's bye next week. But I cancel out the risk SJ scores 170 again and destroys me. I have showed so much faith to Cyril but he just hasn't repaid it.
4.Bartel to S.Thompson (for +11 points, -$19.1k) probably the best move in terms of covering my bases in case I lose this week.

What are peoples thoughts? Do I go for 1 and 4 and probably cop a loss this week, but set myself up for next week? Or do I go the no guts, no glory option (2 and 3)?

Are those the only combinations of choices? If not, I would go with options 1 and 3. Lower is too inconsistent, Suckling is a gun, Rioli again is a bit inconsistent/injury prone and you need Johnson - even if you lose, I bet you'll find that whoever you play next week has the Johnson issue as well. I doubt McEvoy against the pies will outscore hale by much. Bartel isn't far behind Thompson either.

Ok guys I need some help.

I have 4 trades and $219k in the bank.

I need to upgrade 1 more back and also find someone to cover Petrie. My rucks are Cox, Petrie, Vardy, and Keefe right now.

I am ranked 1st and 2nd in my leagues and really want to win to avoid the Geelong bye. My opponents have Cox/McEvoy and Cox/Smith/Bailey as their rucks

so I have cut my options down to 3 main ones:

Option 1 - trade Petrie -> McEvoy, and Hibberd to best DEF (Broughton/Suckling)

Option 2 - keep Petrie and trade Vardy -> Jolly, and Hibberd -> Birchall

Option 3 - keep Petrie and trade Vardy -> Ryder, and Hibberd -> Suckling

If I keep Petrie, I can swing one of my DPP forwards into my midfield to cover Marc Murphy in week 3 finals. I can then use my last 2 trades to sideways Gibbs and Heppell (if I make it that far)

What would you do? I would really prefer Suckling to Birchall but cant afford him if I get Jolly. Is Ryder too big a risk?

Or should I bring in McEvoy and Broughton and play one of my rookies in week 3 or 4?

Jolly is in good form, but is liable to be injured/rested/touched up by McEvoy. Ryder has the bye last round. I reckon get in McEvoy and Suckling and then try to cover Murphy with a Smith or Mzungu - you will find that many people will be doing the same.

 

[Waspy79]

Mummy or McEvoy. Sandi's toe could go again

Interesting as I am leaning towards your Jacobs.

 

[Rancid_Beasties]

Are those the only combinations of choices? If not, I would go with options 1 and 3. Lower is too inconsistent, Suckling is a gun, Rioli again is a bit inconsistent/injury prone and you need Johnson - even if you lose, I bet you'll find that whoever you play next week has the Johnson issue as well. I doubt McEvoy against the pies will outscore hale by much. Bartel isn't far behind Thompson either.

The guy who is likely to play me next week if I lose does not have johnson. In fact, the only cats player he has is enright (who I also have), and having johnson and bartel benched as well could cost me the game.

SJ averaging 75 at aami and 80 against the crows, against a career average of 85 has me a bit worried. Swans and the pies in the last two are also not exactly the easiest 2 games for him to keep up his recent scoring trend.

What about mumford against the tigers (instead of mcevoy)? We have an insipid ruck department and have had some big scores from ruckmen against us over the last few years.

Pretty much have lower for suckling locked in.

What are people's thoughts on Robert Murphy? Hasn't had the best season, but has dominated against essedon in recent years, averages over 100 in his last 8 against them, including four tonnes and a lowest score of 82. Also opens up a fwd/back link with talia so he can cover enright next week and gibbs in week 3.

 

[Premiers2007]

Want to trade out Cotchin;

Cant choose between Dal Santo (avg: 105.56), Redden (Avg: 109.33) or Rockliff (108.50)

I have all better players already.

 

[Doofus44]

love some help guys. i have 5 trades, 16K, and this is my team
Backs - Gibbs, Goddard, Deledio, Fisher, Enright, Lower, Puopolo (Shaw, Hibberd, Jacobs)
Mids - Swan, Pendles, Ablett, Boyd, Hodge, Montgna (prestia, Mzungu, Bewick)
Rucks - Cox, Sandi (Bailey, derickX)
Forwards - Franklin, N Riewoldt, Sylvia, Cloke, Pavlich, Goodes, Rioli (Darling, Tapscott, Howe)

i finished 2nd so i have a 2nd chance, but id obviously rather skip next week if i can, i am thinking of going;
Darling - Callinan (gives me some money and provides a link with Mzungu)
Shaw - Suckling (who will replace puopolo on the field)

do people think this is a good idea, i have a tough match up, OR should i maybe just get Callinan in and then if i lose this week get 2 more premiums in next week?

also should Mzungu be replacing any of my starters??

Cheers guys

 

[joeyavalanche]

love some help guys. i have 5 trades, 16K, and this is my team
Backs - Gibbs, Goddard, Deledio, Fisher, Enright, Lower, Puopolo (Shaw, Hibberd, Jacobs)
Mids - Swan, Pendles, Ablett, Boyd, Hodge, Montgna (prestia, Mzungu, Bewick)
Rucks - Cox, Sandi (Bailey, derickX)
Forwards - Franklin, N Riewoldt, Sylvia, Cloke, Pavlich, Goodes, Rioli (Darling, Tapscott, Howe)

i finished 2nd so i have a 2nd chance, but id obviously rather skip next week if i can, i am thinking of going;
Darling - Callinan (gives me some money and provides a link with Mzungu)
Shaw - Suckling (who will replace puopolo on the field)

do people think this is a good idea, i have a tough match up, OR should i maybe just get Callinan in and then if i lose this week get 2 more premiums in next week?

also should Mzungu be replacing any of my starters??

Cheers guys

well you need to get rid of shaw anyway and with the lack of defensive options you should probably bring suckling in this week if it means you may get the week off.
ive had suckling for a good few months now and have been more than happy backing him in every week.

id def do both trades this week

 

[Rancid_Beasties]

Want to trade out Cotchin;

Cant choose between Dal Santo (avg: 105.56), Redden (Avg: 109.33) or Rockliff (108.50)

I have all better players already.

Rockliff or Redden, can't go wrong. Nicky dal is a bit overpriced now IMO and has a tough run home although theres no doubting he is the most in form of the 3 players you mentioned.

 

[Doofus44]

thanks mate, i am leaning towards doing it but then thought that i would only have 3 left and possibly still need to get rid of gibbs and enright down the track and the possiblity of having to trade out premiums that are rested which is bound to happen

 

[Tippaz]

my final downgrade:
237k Hibberd -> 80k Schneider

leaves me with 2 trades and 161k
i lose my def/mid link with Jacobs but i gain an extra fwd/mid link for Prestia so i've got adequate cover
i could do Rawlings -> Suckling but i won't... gonna need those trades when teams rest players

 

[demon21]

My forward line is Fyfe, Goodes, Petrie, Franklin, Sylvia, Riewoldnt, Mzungu. So looking to upgrade Petrie who would use choose out of Okeefe, Cloke and Pavlich

 

[06Premiers]

I think Cloke is in the best form ATM, but Pav has been reliable lately, and I'm not that confident in ROK. Can't you carry Petrie for this week and save a trade?

I have a bit of a dilemma this week. I'm not convinced both Cox and Zmith will play, plus Zmith has done nothing lately. So looking at a ruck trade of Griffin to Leuey. Then go Hibberd to Adcock which will leave me with 2 trades left but a good D rotation for byes/injuries. Or should I not worry about the ruck situation and go Lower to Fisher/Suckling straight up and have Puops as my cover for Gibbs/Heppell/Enright byes?

So basically:

Griffin -> Leuey
Hibberd -> Adcock

OR

Lower -> Fisher/Suckling

 

[demon21]

I think Cloke is in the best form ATM, but Pav has been reliable lately, and I'm not that confident in ROK. Can't you carry Petrie for this week and save a trade?

I could do that but then would have to play Howe or lynch, I do have 7 trades left so can afford to trade if i choose too.

 

[06Premiers]

I guess go for it since the cover is not that great, plus you have plenty of trades in the bank. Another reason to go for it is if it's an elimination final. You don't wanna get knocked out with heaps of trades left.

 

[Rancid_Beasties]

I've made up my mind. Once it gets a bit closer to lockout all I am going to do is trade lower to suckling. I'm gonna show faith in Hale to cover Petrie.

 

[Magic33]

After a little last minute help. Finished second. I have 175K and 7 trades, so I'm basically making 2 trades this week just to get rid of them.
My team:
Deledio, Gibbs, Goddard, Fisher, Broughton, Heppell, Adcock (Stanley, Lower, Golby)
Swan, Pendles, Boyd, Ablett, Bartel, Hodge (Mzungu, Jacobs, Callinan)
Cox, Smith (Petrie, Bailey)
Fyfe, Goodes, Pavlich, Chapman, Franklin, Sylvia, Riewoldt (Lobbe, I. Smith, Howe)

Thinking:
1) ZSmith > Leuenberger (thinking him over Mumford, McEvoy and others b/c he plays GC this week)

2a) Lower > Suckling. Then I'd have to decide which defender to bench. This was my original plan, but now I'm considering...
2b) "Upgrade" one of Bartel, Hodge, Sylvia or Riewoldt...in order to try squeeze a few extra points

Any thoughts?