Discussion Round 24: StKilda vs Carlton

[stkildathunda]

Its probably bit early but i was bored so decided to do a Preview of next weeks game.

ROUND 24 MATCH PREVIEW: STKILDA VS CARLTON

The equation is quite simple for the Saints, win and they earn themselves a home final at Etihad against the Swans and lose and they face them up at ANZ Stadium. For Carlton they have already locked in a home final in a MCG blockbuster against the Bombers. In essence it’s a meaningless game for the Blues and then they also have to contend with the curse of the bye, where only a handful of teams have won coming off the weeks break.

Carlton have flagged that they might throw Jarred Waite in the deep end and play him without any match practice. Coming back from injury this is always a concern and last time it backfired on them as Waite injured himself very early on and were forced to sub him out of the game. They will also be tempted to bring Michael Jamieson back after a couple games back from injury, especially given they need to try and combat the twin towers of Nick Riewoldt & Justin Koschitzke.

StKilda will more then likely go in unchanged but they do have Irish recruit, Tommy Walsh knocking on the door and the calls from the Saints fans for him to play is getting louder & louder every week. After a bag of 6 goals last week & being named emergency he is extremely close to being named. Can the Saints go in with three blokes over 195cm? Given Carlton’s lack of tall defenders it could certainly be a masterstroke to try and stretch them. Finding someone to come out of the side will be the hard task with everyone performing well against the Kangaroos. Alternativly Steven Baker could come in to play on one their small forwards in Betts/Garlett.


KEY MATCHUPS

Sean Dempster vs Marc Murphy – Last time Dempster was put onto Murphy at half time after Murphy dominated the 1st half.
Dempster managed keep him to only 7 touches in the entire 2nd half. Not sure if they will go with this again but stopping Murphy is one the keys to defeating Carlton.

Sam Gilbert vs Chris Judd – Gilbert ran with Judd in first half last time and had his measure. For some reason Ross Lyon took him off him after half time and Judd went onto dominate and get the Blues over the line. Think its well worth the gamble to see if he can do it again.

David Armitage vs Chris Yarran – Yarran is their key playmaker and you need to stop him (just look at Leon Davis against Saints couple weeks ago if you don’t know why) and think Armitage could be given the job to keep him accountable. Armitage has also shown he can kick goals and can also run with him through the midfield.

Ben McEvoy vs Robert Warnock – Carlton have the edge in this area with the man mountain Warnock. Can expect Warnock to dominate the hitouts but McEvoy should have the edge around the ground. Really needs to stand up and win his own ball and compete well to try and make Warnock as ineffective as possible.

Zac Dawson vs Jarred Waite – If Waite plays then Zac will take him, otherwise he will have to play on Kruezar or Warnock, whoever the resting ruckman is.


With it all on the line for the Saints you can expect them to come out all guns blazing and the Blues will have to be on their game from the start. The main concern for them is the fact a win has no affect on any end result and coming off a bye they might just think they will cruise into the finals. Last time these teams met the Blues got over the line by few points after a disgraceful umpiring decision gifted them a goal late in the game. The Saints were given no hope in that game as it was in middle of their form slump but they stood up and showed there was fight in them afterall. They have improved since that game and question marks remain around Carlton as they are yet to really win a big match when it matters most.


Given the Saints are playing for a home final and Blues aren’t playing for a great deal I think it will see them salute in a classic.

Saints by 15 points

 

[LordJimmy]

Sam Gilbert vs Chris Judd – Gilbert ran with Judd in first half last time and had his measure. For some reason Ross Lyon took him off him after half time and Judd went onto dominate and get the Blues over the line. Think its well worth the gamble to see if he can do it again.

Getting a bunch of soft touches doesn't amount to dominating. He was just about playing for us, he used the ball so poorly.

It doesn't matter, though. We have better players with bigger hearts than him in the middle. We can do this.

 

[Look2Me4Guidance]

I'm sticking Boogie Dempster on Simpson. Quell some quality inside 50 delivery.

 

[saintkildaman]

Jones/Dempster/Polo on Yarran anybody?

He needs to be shut down, as his run and carry we destroy us.

 

[Look2Me4Guidance]

Jones/Dempster/Polo on Yarran anybody?

He needs to be shut down, as his run and carry we destroy us.

Needs to be hurt the other way. I'd nominate Vegas but can't see how we could squeeze him in. Maybe we drop a tall back given Carlton will come in smallish up front.

 

[stkildathunda]

Getting a bunch of soft touches doesn't amount to dominating. He was just about playing for us, he used the ball so poorly.

It doesn't matter, though. We have better players with bigger hearts than him in the middle. We can do this.

He was integral part of why they won, thats all i remember and he killed us after Ross released Gilbert.

 

[stkildathunda]

Jones/Dempster/Polo on Yarran anybody?

He needs to be shut down, as his run and carry we destroy us.

Yea i was trying for life of me to find a good matchup on him. Polo wouldnt be a bad option.

 

[Zagg]

Firstly, excellent preview AT

Similar to what a few people said last week, I feel that if we can't beat Carlton then we won't have any impact in the finals (as the top 3 teams are much better than them). I'm relatively confident, but not with quite the same bravado as last week - as the Blues have hurt us in the last couple of games.

We need to get our hands on the ball in the middle from the start of the game. North had their little run yesterday when they won a bunch of clearances in a row - we can't let that happen against Carlton as they can get on a roll.

Really struggling to think if it's worth making any changes - Gram & Raph were probably two of our lesser lights against North, but it was a very decent team effort.

I agree on Dempster to Murphy. Have we got anyone fast enough to tag Yarran? Either way I think it'd be better to sacrifice our spare man in defence to stop him getting free.

On a final note, I'll be confident of beating Sydney home or away, but saving the airfare & hotel cost of a Sydney trip would be nice!

Saints by 21.

 

[iloveleigh]

Hm, what about Peake to Yarran? I know its pretty left field but he is probably our only player with the speed to compete with him. His defensive efforts are also good, and being such an offensive player he may be able to hurt Yarran on the attack.
Just food for though, doubt it will happen

 

[Rough_Edges]

St. Kilda vs. Carlton @ MCG Sat Night

Huge game.

Win = home final @ Etihad! (unless Sydney win by 85~ pts), lose and we go back too the SHITHOLE that is ANZ stadium (unless Bris beat Syd).

Destiny in our own hands.

We just have to win.

Can we leave out the Tommy Walsh rubbish this week. Just before it starts

Had 40 shots on goal this week. Forward line was as functional as it has been all year. Ross won't change this (unless injuries).

 

[Armitage2Riewoldt]

Re: St. Kilda vs. Carlton @ MCG Sat Night

I think we already have a thread. But...

As someone else mentioned. I think this is our best 22. Maybe Gamble and Geary are swappable depending on opposition. But probably as sub.

So yeah, can't see any unforced changes for the rest of the year.

Unless Super Sub goes nuts.

 

[saintsrfreak]

Re: St. Kilda vs. Carlton @ MCG Sat Night

Thunda already made one

 

[stkildathunda]

Firstly, excellent preview AT

Similar to what a few people said last week, I feel that if we can't beat Carlton then we won't have any impact in the finals (as the top 3 teams are much better than them). I'm relatively confident, but not with quite the same bravado as last week - as the Blues have hurt us in the last couple of games.

We need to get our hands on the ball in the middle from the start of the game. North had their little run yesterday when they won a bunch of clearances in a row - we can't let that happen against Carlton as they can get on a roll.

Really struggling to think if it's worth making any changes - Gram & Raph were probably two of our lesser lights against North, but it was a very decent team effort.

I agree on Dempster to Murphy. Have we got anyone fast enough to tag Yarran? Either way I think it'd be better to sacrifice our spare man in defence to stop him getting free.

On a final note, I'll be confident of beating Sydney home or away, but saving the airfare & hotel cost of a Sydney trip would be nice!

Saints by 21.

Cheers mate

Yea ill be confident in beating Sydney up there if it comes to that, but it wont as we will win this one

Agreed we seem to get smashed on the scoreboard when the opposition takes control of the clearances. This probably has lot to do with Lenny missing and also Macca not being a genuine tap ruckman like some the other rucks about..

 

[stkildathunda]

Re: St. Kilda vs. Carlton @ MCG Sat Night

http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/showthread.php?t=863833

Probably should have had it discussion, not preview Tried to edit it but can so maybe a mod can merge them and edit title??

 

[Kildonan]

Done

 

[Confuscius]

Getting a bunch of soft touches doesn't amount to dominating. He was just about playing for us, he used the ball so poorly.

It doesn't matter, though. We have better players with bigger hearts than him in the middle. We can do this.

when we last played I made a mental note to remember that game for Brownlow night. There was no way Judd was in the best 5 for Carlton, let alone for both sides. But I get the feeling he may pull a vote or two.

 

[CrashTestDummy]

Jones/Dempster/Polo on Yarran anybody?

He needs to be shut down, as his run and carry we destroy us.

I'd say Peake could rebound easily off any of their quicks.

 

[saintsrfreak]

when we last played I made a mental note to remember that game for Brownlow night. There was no way Judd was in the best 5 for Carlton, let alone for both sides. But I get the feeling he may pull a vote or two.

C.Judd 3 votes....

 

[Papa Juggs]

This is a complete dead rubber for them but not us.

They would want to stay out of the way and rest up for finals.

Unless the Lions win then I'm all good with whatever happens.

 

[sauce_head]

Not sure the blues will take it too easy. that would effectively be two byes in a row - not good for form going in v the Dons. Expecting a tough encounter. We usually leave our best footy for the best teams, so we will not be playing at 100% v the Blues. I also do note that we have won more games against the top 4 than the Blues this year (I think).

Either way, I would not be suprised if the Bears knock off South Melbourne after they have had two immense efforts the last two weeks, they could be a little flat. If that is the case we should just agree with the Blues to play a bit of circle work and test out Walsh - just for you rough edges...

 

[LordJimmy]

when we last played I made a mental note to remember that game for Brownlow night. There was no way Judd was in the best 5 for Carlton, let alone for both sides. But I get the feeling he may pull a vote or two.

Oh, he'll get the three votes because he was sighted with the ball, plus, being at the game, the Carlton supporters start applauding obnoxiously whenever he has it - which announces to everyone that he indeed has possession.

He was one of the worst players on the ground that night, though. Just shocking, really. He only had one remotely effective kick - a goal assist when the umpires called a free to him for no reason as we were rebounding, which caught our defense scrambled. Not exactly one to hang your hat on. As for the first half, I had to check with people nearby if he was actually playing at half time.

People have singled out Raph for WOG that night, he had a few turnovers and was admittedly pretty bad - but I'll take 2 or 3 turnovers from Raph ahead of the 10+ that Judd dished up. Any time.

 

[dg102]

Raph is playing like 2 backman now compared to his work when we last played. We really should have won that game! Was one of our "Honourable defeats", if there is such a thing.

[youtube]Ia1cJvqCND0[/youtube]

Love Siposs's 60M BOMB! at 2:25.

Last Time

Round 7, 9 May 2011 Etihad Stadium St Kilda defeated by Carlton 81-84.

 

[West Vic Saint]

Does anyone know yet if the match is on Ten or Fox?

 

[stkildathunda]

Does anyone know yet if the match is on Ten or Fox?

TV times around the country for saints v blues saturday night (thanks to Matrix on SS for finding them

)

vic metro 7.30 (30 min delay)
nsw and qld metro 10.30 (3.5 hr delay)
Live on Foxtel Main Event (ch 518) in Brisbane
cairns and gold coast same as above but on Southern Cross channel
adelaide and perth DOES NOT GET THE GAME, channel ten and fox are showing the eagles crows game on BOTH channels

 

[ChrisFooty]

So Perth and Adelaide get worse coverage than the northern states for this match. Go figure.