Preview Round 9, 2024 : Hawks v Saints, 1:45pm Sat 11th May, UTAS

[Platten44]

He’ll (Gunston) will earn a reprieve this week with Chol and Lewis ruled out. You don’t think the brains trusts at Carlton would have been concerned about Mackay’s yips? For the record Gunston has kicked 4 goals from 5 games and 11 points.

Did you watch the game? Gunston was exceptional.he totally out played Liam Jones and he led a winning forward line.

 

[theiaofseed]

Tough week at the selection table with both Breust and Mitchell needing to come back in.

 

[perrdan86]

Tough week at the selection table with both Breust and Mitchell needing to come back in.

I hope we get to see the return of Mitchell using his speed off half back. It was so good to see Weddel back running and carrying from half back. Makes a huge difference to the ball movement.

 

[CHUBBSS]

I quite like a forward line of Gunston, dear and Sicily, worth bringing in serrong or Phillips if it gives us this opportunity. Gives dear structure and allows Watson and Ginny to work in with some smart players supporting. (Don’t think Gunston can play every game but while his up god his valuable in how we play - players seemed to really understand what he wanted to didn’t just make him run for the ball)

Sicily created a lot of scoring opportunities, almost had another in the last few seconds last week to.

It’s worth more than a thought as we rejig the backline to allow cj and seamus to fit in. Also creates some space for a few to grow. I’ve always like an undersized backline if they can play taller, means they can burn their opponents on rebound a lot more effectively.

If this happens tho Karl has to come to the wing gets found out in defence far too much. Can still role back if needed.

 

[Brucie Buffer]

Small forwards get limited opportunities and the Wiz has had 9 shots on goal. I don’t see the point in limiting his opportunities further by playing him as sub. When he’s near the ball or chasing quite often something happens. Yes he has the yips but let him work through that in the seniors. It’ll click.

If we need to bring in another back it’s Serong over Phillips, I didn’t think he did a lot wrong and was stiff to be dropped.

 

[threesixpio]

Possible ins (in the mix):

Mitch Lewis - back within the next week or two. Will likely be a chance for this game. (Best 22 when fit)
Luke Breust - will be a test and presume a big chance to return. (Best 22 when fit)

Mabior Chol - back from suspension, battling a wrist/forearm injury, wait and see and where he fits into structure.
Seamus Mitchell - will be back after being managed, who comes out?
Ethan Phillips - has been very impressive at VFL level, will be close to debut, Sicily dependant.

Chad Wingard - still requires conditioning at VFL and will play more game time to push an AFL case.
Changkuoth Jiath - is back this week through VFL for conditioning and will be an option in 1-2 weeks.
Denver Grainger-Barras - has been training back from injury, will likely see VFL for match fitness, form and likely in the side later this season.

Colour =
Green - Likely to come in, not confirmed but 100% in the mix.
Yellow - A chance to come in, in the middle. Unsure.
Red - Unlikely to come in, in the mix.

Possible outs (on the chopping block):

Harry Morrison - quiet game but worked hard, a chance to be dropped or sub.
Josh Ward - quiet game, damaging with it and worked hard, chance to be dropped to work on his game more or sub.
Cam MacKenzie - subbed from the game in the third quarter so a chance to be a dropped to work in the VFL or sub, a decent game.

Jack Gunston - a chance to be rested and managed soon, could it be this week?
James Worpel - below on form the last month, still performing okay but heat will come for his role.
Nick Watson - will be an option to be dropped to get confidence and work in the VFL, although unlikely and maybe sub again, although also unlikely.

James Sicily - will play if fit, will see how his shoulder feels throughout the week.

Colour =
Red - on the chopping block this week, big or more likely chances to be out.
Yellow - a chance to go out, whether dropped or rested.
Green - will play if fit, wait and see for fitness.

This is just my opinion of the possible ins and outs, there’s a bit to play out this week for the options and who could return/go out.

Bored and on the train to work?

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Just to weigh in on the Gunston debate...

Yes, he is not at his absolute peak and his goalkicking has been less than ideal, but Hawthorn have been struggling for marking targets inside the forward 50 as it is and Gunston (who has played 4.5 out of 8 games), has taken the most marks inside 50 of any Hawthorn listed player. Viewers are often obsessed with 'athleticism' (which Gunston has no doubt lost a bit) but he remains elite at positioning and football smarts which is why he has been able to take as many marks inside 50 as he has (and why someone like Chol, with all the athleticism in the world, has taken fewer marks from more games).

Gunston has generated 15 shots on goal in 4.5 games, and contributed 4 assists. On average, that's the most shots on goal of any player in the team. Yes, he has been wasteful and it is a concern. However, I think the likelihood is that this will turn. Admittedly, some shots have been hard up on the boundary around 50 out when others might look to pass but some have been shots that he would kick 8-9 times out of 10. It hasn't been a case of the traditional 'yips' where he has been missing sodas and/or the ball has been flying off the side of his boot due to terrible technique. He has typically been narrowly missing tougher shots with a decent ball strike and kicking slightly narrow when going round the corner. It's not a "he needs to overhaul his entire technique" kind of situation.

With Lewis and Chol out, selecting Gunston is honestly a no brainer. Given the opportunities he's been creating (i.e. more than anyone else), I would likely select him even when one of Chol or Lewis return. When both return, the situation can be reassessed to see if he has turned his goalkicking accuracy around. I'd back him in that he has.

 

[Baz_hawk]

Missed the Box Hill match this weekend but looking at the summary it would suggest Serong was our best and Phillips had a good game.

Both possible options this week, especially if Sicily doesn't come up on the short turn around.

 

[Roddy]

Can anyone take a stab as to what the chances of Sis getting up are this week?

 

[barbster]

Surely we’re a good chance this week. We will go into the game with some much needed confidence, Saints are pretty average and it’s at our second home. I expect Breust to come straight in now that he is fully fit, he did kick 6 against the saints last year. Not fussed who makes way.

 

[cryptor]

Can anyone take a stab as to what the chances of Sis getting up are this week?

64.38%

 

[Roddy]

64.38%

 

[Hawker55]

Surely we’re a good chance this week. We will go into the game with some much needed confidence, Saints are pretty average and it’s at our second home. I expect Breust to come straight in now that he is fully fit, he did kick 6 against the saints last year. Not fussed who makes way.

I am confident we will win the flag now.

 

[Yardie]

With Lewis and Chol out, selecting Gunston is honestly a no brainer. Given the opportunities he's been creating (i.e. more than anyone else), I would likely select him even when one of Chol or Lewis return. When both return, the situation can be reassessed to see if he has turned his goalkicking accuracy around. I'd back him in that he has.

I've been on record that Gunston should be at Box Hill for the remainder of the season, as I see the development of the youngsters working together as the way forward.

However, the bolded is spot on.

 

[nelk boys]

We'll win this week.

Confidence just growing within the group. Our mids will run rampant.

 

[TylerDurden]

We'll win this week.

Confidence just growing within the group. Our mids will run rampant.

I look at their midfield and all I see is Steele and Ross. They've got a ton of outside run, but reckon they struggle for depth on the inside.

If Meek can give our bulls first look, we should be able to get it done.

 

[Sixpence]

I look at their midfield and all I see is Steele and Ross. They've got a ton of outside run, but reckon they struggle for depth on the inside.

If Meek can give our bulls first look, we should be able to get it done.

Is Marshall still injured? If so, Meek will destroy their backup.

 

[nelk boys]

I look at their midfield and all I see is Steele and Ross. They've got a ton of outside run, but reckon they struggle for depth on the inside.

If Meek can give our bulls first look, we should be able to get it done.

Day and Newk need to hit the scoreboard. Need to drag their direct opponents forward. Reckon Day will have 35+ and 2 goals.

Heeney is the prototype of exposing the aerial weakness of other mids.

 

[TylerDurden]

Is Marshall still injured? If so, Meek will destroy their backup.

Played last week.

 

[barbster]

Day and Newk need to hit the scoreboard. Need to drag their direct opponents forward. Reckon Day will have 35+ and 2 goals.

Heeney is the prototype of exposing the aerial weakness of other mids.

I’m more concerned with Watson hitting the scoreboard. Hopefully he has some composure this weekend and kicks a couple.

 

[beside the seaside]

I look at their midfield and all I see is Steele and Ross. They've got a ton of outside run, but reckon they struggle for depth on the inside.

If Meek can give our bulls first look, we should be able to get it done.

Sinclair is probably the one you need to worry about. Had a really good game inside on the weekend.

That and Marshall who can get on top of his opponent.

Your mids destroyed us in that first game last year so you'll definitely have some confidence going in.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

I've been on record that Gunston should be at Box Hill for the remainder of the season, as I see the development of the youngsters working together as the way forward.

However, the bolded is spot on.

I certainly see the merit in that view.

However, key/marking forwards is our thinnest area, especially for youth.

There is really only Ramsden and Dear - both of whom are very early in their careers, very raw and are still getting opportunities regardless (Ramsden 3 games already this season, Dear debut - much earlier than anyone thought - on the weekend).

Our focus needs to be the youth and the future (and this is likely Gunston's last season) but we don't need Ramsden and/or Dear playing every game at this stage of their development. If anything, I think that has more potential to hinder overall team development as you can lose your structure and playing style if you are relying on developing kids to play key roles all year. You also don't want to keep having to swing Sicily/Scrimshaw and others forward to cover deficiencies, as this just leaves other areas vulnerable (and the 'playing together' and 'team development' argument works best when players are playing in the position they will hold in the future). I think Dear and Ramsden will develop just fine with a handful of games each and with Gunston likely to retire, increased responsibility next year. As such, I would select based on merit - which likely means Gunston in when Lewis and/or Chol are out and then "who's performing best" for that 3rd tall spot when they are both in.

With all that said, getting games into the youth and have them play together is definately a principle I agree with us employing, especially in the areas where the youngsters are a little more developed than we see in the KPF area (ie. small forwards, young mids, etc).

 

[burner1]

Will we show up with the same intensity? Both the Roos and dogs wins came after big losses where we seemed fired up and cracked in.

The saints good outside users may be an issue on the bigger Tassie ground. We also managed to push extra bodies around the contest vs the dogs to win the ground ball which will be harder. And they likely have better matchups for Gunston and dear.

 

[TylerDurden]

Sinclair is probably the one you need to worry about. Had a really good game inside on the weekend.

That and Marshall who can get on top of his opponent.

Your mids destroyed us in that first game last year so you'll definitely have some confidence going in.

He usually cuts us up from half back, so I'm ok with that.

 

[Guardian Hawk]

Sinclair is probably the one you need to worry about. Had a really good game inside on the weekend.

That and Marshall who can get on top of his opponent.

Your mids destroyed us in that first game last year so you'll definitely have some confidence going in.

I'm not sure how much that game will mean, especially given the way your midfield obliterated us in the second game, especially early.

Sam Mitchell made special mention of it in his presser after the game (which is unlike him) about the ease in which you walked it out of the middle and how disappointing it was, given it was an area we had otherwise been competitive in (Noting Crouch was the main destroyer and is not available now)

With that said, of course Hawthorn will still have some belief, especially coming off a win and being down in Tassie - but I think they know as well as anyone that they will have to play at 100% and bring very high pressure all game to have a chance (with the Saints still rightfully being favourites). We are just at different stages of the development journey (and have some key absences in key areas with limited depth) and so need to bring our best (and maintain it all game) to beat anyone not named North.