Prediction Run to the finish line 2023

[fishardansin]

Upload it to google sheets, share it and then paste the share link in the forum. Then we’ll stick it

For those who don't know about Squiggle, where I am getting the data from, check them out:

Squiggle: AFL prediction & analysis

Squiggle is the home of computer-aided AFL footy tipping

squiggle.com.au

 

[Don Won]

We aren't favoured against Freo by any measure that I've seen, whether it's the bookies, squiggle or anything else.

Added to that, no team has one first-up after the bye when playing a team that had played the week before.

(Freo did look very bad so I don't think that we are without a hope).

 

[Lore]

I'd rather make the finals and lose than miss the finals completely. I get the argument - but doubt any professional sporting club would agree with it.

I’m not saying we should aim to miss finals… just that this club has a nasty habit of getting ahead of itself after making the eight by the skin of our teeth and then getting flogged in week 1. It causes more problems than it’s worth.

 

[jdstorm]

We aren't favoured against Freo by any measure that I've seen, whether it's the bookies, squiggle or anything else.

Sportsbet has us 2.10 to freo’s 1.75 so it’s not exactly a huge margain.

Freo has also been bad this year and has no momentum so expecting to have a decent chance against Freo isn’t wrong

 

[eth-dog]

Sportsbet has us 2.10 to freo’s 1.75 so it’s not exactly a huge margain.

Freo has also been bad this year and has no momentum so expecting to have a decent chance against Freo isn’t wrong

I never said it was a big margin. You said we were favoured. We're not.

 

[DallasCrane316]

For those who don't know about Squiggle, where I am getting the data from, check them out:

Squiggle: AFL prediction & analysis

Squiggle is the home of computer-aided AFL footy tipping

squiggle.com.au

So if I’m reading that correctly, that’s predicting we win 4 out of the next 10 games?

And Doggies and Cats both win 8 out of the next 10 games??

 

[Lore]

Speaking of Squiggle, that is the craziest I've seen it for a long time.

Goes to show how even the competition is.

 

[cAsEy_18]

Speaking of Squiggle, that is the craziest I've seen it for a long time.

Goes to show how even the competition is.

View attachment 1716485

I have no idea what any of that means, but I think they got west coast about right.

 

[faible]

I have no idea what any of that means, but I think they got west coast about right.

Top Right is good. Bottom Left is bad. Basically.

Port the strongest offensive side, Melbourne the strongest defensive side. Usually the Premier is a good mix of both. Very even year.

 

[Lore]

I have no idea what any of that means, but I think they got west coast about right.

It's like an algorithm that figures out how offensively and defensively capable each team is and predicts the result of each game (including a bunch of factors like home game advantage, but not injuries).

Then if the team over or under performs, the club's icon on the chart moves accordingly, leaving a trail of club coloured line behind it. So it sorta jumps all over the place after 14 rounds, but it jumps around even more erratically when the results defy expectations.

I guess in a way it also represents some of the changes to the game (like 6-6-6 and the stand rule) that lead to huge momentum swings and runs of goals for and against, which can lead to some really massive wins, or very even high scoring ones.

By the end of the season most premiership teams end up in the top right corner, and the shit teams in the bottom left

 

[ant555]

Bookies (and me) disagree with you - both the Saints & Essendon are $1.50 to make the 8 which means we are twice as likely to make it than to miss.
Freo are well out of form and we will be pretty much full strength - plus we have a good record against Port at the G...We should be able to win at least one of those games...Have some faith Ethan..!!

Bookies are in business to take money from people.

 

[Don Won]

I’m not saying we should aim to miss finals… just that this club has a nasty habit of getting ahead of itself after making the eight by the skin of our teeth and then getting flogged in week 1. It causes more problems than it’s worth.

Hopefully, the club and the fans have learned from past experience

 

[Lore]

Hopefully, the club and the fans have learned from past experience

unlikely

 

[Yoda_]

Bookies are in business to take money from people.

give us your money so we can extort you for every last dollar

"but remember, gamble responsibly"

 

[Bombers36]

Bookies are in business to take money from people.

Yes - and once they have taken the money off people they will then often (depending on their hold) lay it off or bet it with other bookies to minimise their holding or potential loss/risk. The market - be it who makes the 8 or any other markets (provided there is enough liquidity) usually evens itself out in the end....
So it is no mistake that Essendon and St.Kilda are $1.50 to play finals - thats the collective opinion of mug punters, bookies, professional punters and anyone else involved who decides to play in that space...

gamble responsibly!

 

[ant555]

Yes - and once they have taken the money off people they will then often (depending on their hold) lay it off or bet it with other bookies to minimise their holding or potential loss/risk. The market - be it who makes the 8 or any other markets (provided there is enough liquidity) usually evens itself out in the end....
So it is no mistake that Essendon and St.Kilda are $1.50 to play finals - thats the collective opinion of mug punters, bookies, professional punters and anyone else involved who decides to play in that space...

gamble responsibly!

No shit . I know exactly how they operate. I did not need a lesson.
I am smart enough not to bet on football as the margins are too small. The risk v reward is very narrow unless you take a multi.
Anyway the money sets the market so saying the bookie’s have someone as favourite is not always a great indicator. It is Wright of money and the weekly markets generally start undersized both sides.

My only footy bet this year is fifty dollars on us to play finals when we where double figures.
My only footy bet last year was Geelong to make the GF .

 

[ant555]

I suspect it is going to be 13 - 10 that gets you in so we are looking at minimum 5 losses along with the Saints and Dogs.
Crows minimum 4 losses.
Tigers with a draw is interesting. They could scrape in with only 4 losses. Only 3 losses would make them safe.
Geelong .GC. GWS . Fremantle can probably only afford to lose 3 from here.

 

[boncer34]

Gary O'Donnell has declared our season a failure if we don't make finals from here.

eth-dog

 

[Yoda_]

dated June 11, 2023

Next 4 weeks are as critical as they come for us;

Carlton to be put to the sword, we win, solid top 6 and go 2 games clear inside the 8
Fremantle are a bipolar side, we win over in the West and media start talking us up more seriously
Power at home is a game I would chalk as a loss but who knows, if they keep winning, surely they need to fall eventually?
Crows at home is another that needs us to continue locking in wins we should be winning even though they are playing a good brand of football in a similar spot to us competing for that 6-10th spot on the ladder as well.
Get through this at least 2:2 and we head into the last 1/3 of the season 9-7 needing to win at least 2 against Cats, Dogs, Swans (h), Eagles (h), Roos (h), Giants (a) and Collingwood to lock up a spot in September would be a good achievement for the 3rd youngest list in 2023.

Reviewing this, I don't see why we can't beat Fremantle (away), Geelong (are they part it?), Crows (at home needs to be looking good for us).

It is easy for us to lock away the crap sides (Hawks, Giants, North, Eagles) but for us to be taken seriously), we should be going hell for leather to knock off a Cats (GMHBA), Power (MCG), Pies (Rd 23, MCG), Dogs (Marvel) and people sit up and take notice.

 

[ant555]

dated June 11, 2023



Reviewing this, I don't see why we can't beat Fremantle (away), Geelong (are they part it?), Crows (at home needs to be looking good for us).

It is easy for us to lock away the crap sides (Hawks, Giants, North, Eagles) but for us to be taken seriously), we should be going hell for leather to knock off a Cats (GMHBA), Power (MCG), Pies (Rd 23, MCG), Dogs (Marvel) and people sit up and take notice.

Not looking so good at half time.
Not really sure how you can be making a number of points about what is missing from the list ( in other threads )and then be saying we should be winning this game and that game

 

[Bjchan13]

Its alright gaiz. We beat Port next week

 

[ant555]

 

[fishardansin]

Watching the Adelaide and Collingwood game, the talk coming out of the game is that Adelaide can't win away from home. They have an easy game next week with North at home, then their next away game is against us. They will be building that game up as a final. Based off our game last night and their ability to get a run on against Collingwood it isn't looking good. Considering we will go in as underdogs in every other game in the next block of 4 games, it is vital we win that.

There is a good chance that that game will be the difference between 8th and 9th for both clubs.

 

[eth-dog]

Need to win 5 from 8. It's a tough draw to get that. Adelaide are good, Geelong in Geelong is always tough, Dogs are very tough as well. Need to nab two in the next 4 IMO.

 

[TheUnicorn]

Adelaide literally knocked us out of the 8 with the final game of the season when they win vs Wet Toast.

 

[Bjchan13]

Need to win 5 from 8. It's a tough draw to get that. Adelaide are good, Geelong in Geelong is always tough, Dogs are very tough as well. Need to nab two in the next 4 IMO.

I think if we dont win 3 of the next 4 then its not our year and we shouldn't be playing finals