Prediction Run to the finish line 2023

What does the next 6 weeks look like

  • 6 & 0

    Votes: 7 11.9%
  • 5 & 1

    Votes: 2 3.4%
  • 4 & 2

    Votes: 11 18.6%
  • 3 & 3

    Votes: 21 35.6%
  • 2 & 4

    Votes: 14 23.7%
  • 1 & 5

    Votes: 2 3.4%
  • 0 & 6

    Votes: 2 3.4%

  • Total voters
    59

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I think if we dont win 3 of the next 4 then its not our year and we shouldn't be playing finals
We should make it if we get 2 over Adelaide, Geelong, Bulldogs and Sydney. I don't see it right now though.
 
We can compete with the best and were stiff against the 2nd best team in the comp..But we are still in the 8 (just!) and our draw gets a little better from heron - with only 1 interstate game left destiny is in our own hands. Really really would like to beat a fellow contender in Adelaide on Sunday though…!!


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Call me pessimistic but the loss to freo will come back to bite us imo.

Adelaide and swans are no easy beats.
 

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12 wins for the season will almost certainly get you into the 8 - we are favoured to win against the Crows and if we do that we will be on 9 wins...so only really need 3 more...
Our last 7 games include North, Sydney, GWS, Bulldogs & WCoast - 5 all very winnable games - so any 3 of those and we are in (dont think we can beat Pies or Cats)
 
12 wins for the season will almost certainly get you into the 8 - we are favoured to win against the Crows and if we do that we will be on 9 wins...so only really need 3 more...
Our last 7 games include North, Sydney, GWS, Bulldogs & WCoast - 5 all very winnable games - so any 3 of those and we are in (dont think we can beat Pies or Cats)
12 wins is unlikely to get you in. Lose to Adelaide and it's all but over.
 
12 wins is unlikely to get you in. Lose to Adelaide and it's all but over.
12 wins is usually enough - average wins needed to make the 8 over last 10 yeasr is 11.7 - so 12 usually gets the job done....
Even if we do lose to Adelaide (which I dont think will happen) we are not out of it - depends on how other results and games play out...
You really are pessimistic about this eth-dog ....any particular reason why?
 
12 wins is usually enough - average wins needed to make the 8 over last 10 yeasr is 11.7 - so 12 usually gets the job done....
Even if we do lose to Adelaide (which I dont think will happen) we are not out of it - depends on how other results and games play out...
You really are pessimistic about this eth-dog ....any particular reason why?
It’s also a 23 game season this year.
 
12 wins is usually enough - average wins needed to make the 8 over last 10 yeasr is 11.7 - so 12 usually gets the job done....
Even if we do lose to Adelaide (which I dont think will happen) we are not out of it - depends on how other results and games play out...
You really are pessimistic about this eth-dog ....any particular reason why?
Yes, but you're forgetting that there are 23 games this season, not 22. So 12 wins is unlikely to get the job done. If we lose to Adelaide (which is a fair chance of happening), we have to win 5 of the last 7 including:

Geelong in Geelong (which if we lose means we need 5 from 6)
Western Bulldogs (a side we've beaten ONCE since 2014)
Sydney (a 50/50 game at best)
Collingwood at the MCG

The other 3 should be wins but we need 13 wins. Hell, even if we beat Adelaide they have a better percentage and have GWS, GC and Sydney in Adelaide in their run home as well as West Coast.
 
Yes, but you're forgetting that there are 23 games this season, not 22. So 12 wins is unlikely to get the job done. If we lose to Adelaide (which is a fair chance of happening), we have to win 5 of the last 7 including:

Geelong in Geelong (which if we lose means we need 5 from 6)
Western Bulldogs (a side we've beaten ONCE since 2014)
Sydney (a 50/50 game at best)
Collingwood at the MCG

The other 3 should be wins but we need 13 wins. Hell, even if we beat Adelaide they have a better percentage and have GWS, GC and Sydney in Adelaide in their run home as well as West Coast.
I agree it’s a tough run home, but I reckon a team could sneak in with 12 wins.
 
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Assuming WB and St Kilda cling to their spots in the 8, it seems a race between us, Adelaide and Geelong for the last two spots.

13 is the magical number for us, especially given Adelaide's likely higher percentage and Geelong having a draw. A win this week against Adelaide would be massive. By far the biggest match that will define the composition of the final 8 this season.


Adelaide's fixture - 8 wins 119%

Should win

GWS (AO)
Gold Coast (AO)
Sydney (AO)
West Coast (OS

Expected loses

Port Adelaide (AO)
Melbourne (MCG)
Brisbane (G)

50/50

Essendon (Marvel)

Geelong's Fixture - 7.5 wins

Should win

North (GHMBA)
Fremantle (GHMBA)

Expected loses

Brisbane (G)
Collingwood (MCG)

50/50

Essendon (GHMBA)
Port Adelaide (GHMBA)
St Kilda (Marvel)
Western Bulldogs (GHMBA)
 
Assuming WB and St Kilda cling to their spots in the 8, it seems a race between us, Adelaide and Geelong for the last two spots.

I dont think you can assume St Kilda will make the 8...
They have Melbourne this week - likely loss, then GCoast in GCoast after that - probably 40/60 chance...
They also face the Cats, Tigers & Brisbane in Brisbane on their run home - they could potentially drop all 5 of those and only win 3 more games
If we beat Adelaide this week we will be on the same points & similar % to the Saints - so I see them as the most likely of current teams in the 8 to drop out
 
I dont think you can assume St Kilda will make the 8...
They have Melbourne this week - likely loss, then GCoast in GCoast after that - probably 40/60 chance...
They also face the Cats, Tigers & Brisbane in Brisbane on their run home - they could potentially drop all 5 of those and only win 3 more games
If we beat Adelaide this week we will be on the same points & similar % to the Saints - so I see them as the most likely of current teams in the 8 to drop out
You were calling St Kilda a virtual lock 2 weeks ago.

And Melbourne have lost 4 out of their last 6, apart from beating Collingwood they've struggled. They'll also be warm favourites against GC, who are doing their mid to late season implosion.
 
You were calling St Kilda a virtual lock 2 weeks ago.

And Melbourne have lost 4 out of their last 6, apart from beating Collingwood they've struggled. They'll also be warm favourites against GC, who are doing their mid to late season implosion.

Melbourne will beat St.Kilda this week bookmark it - and GCoast are deservedly warm favourtes against the Saiints...

1688593886833.png
 
Melbourne will beat St.Kilda this week bookmark it - and GCoast are deservedly warm favourtes against the Saiints...

View attachment 1729997
I'm not discounting the possibility but it's hardly a lock. St Kilda have a pretty easy 4 weeks after this week so if they win, they'll be hard to pass.

And if Gold Coast get pumped again this week (likely), I doubt that will be the case come Monday.
 
Adelaide game is key; win and go to 5th. Lose and drop to 9th. I didn’t realise how important this game was…. Maybe I should put more money on Adelaide to help us.
Good way to hedge your feelings too
 
I know it's not the be all and end all, especially for a team trying to take a more reserved route but this game feels different for the club. A real right of passage that we just take care of business should see us win and then take care of the ones we need to.


I have changed my tune about not caring what finals looks like, etc. etc. If we make it and lose, the nuffies will come, I won't care because this group was tipped by many to be a bottom 4 team. Finals experience will hold kids like Durham, Hobbs, Caldwell, Menzies etc in good stead for next year. See what these kids do in the face of adversary.


IF we win in the first week of finals, I would go full blown nuffy
 

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Prediction Run to the finish line 2023

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