Prediction Run to the finish line 2023

[fishardansin]

Upload it to google sheets, share it and then paste the share link in the forum. Then we’ll stick it

For those who don't know about Squiggle, where I am getting the data from, check them out:

Squiggle: AFL prediction & analysis

Squiggle is the home of computer-aided AFL footy tipping

squiggle.com.au

 

[ghostdog]

If we lose today we face a brutal reality over the next few weeks.

All good though. We've already overachieved

 

[eth-dog]

history suggests otherwise

History also has a 22 instead of 23 game season

 

[Yoda_]

History also has a 22 instead of 23 game season

11 wins could very well get you in the finals (in 23 round season) for all we know. No point making statements as facts mate. You're better than that

 

[doug85]

IF we win in the first week of finals, I would go full blown nuffy

Wait, you’re not at full blown nuffy?

I’m digging a shelter and buying sacks of rice

 

[Zephyr Effekt]

I don't want finals unless it includes wins against Adelaide and Sydney along with two from Geelong, Footscray and Collingwood.

* that.

Give me finals anyway it comes.

 

[eth-dog]

11 wins could very well get you in the finals (in 23 round season) for all we know. No point making statements as facts mate. You're better than that

I didn't. I said unlikely. Which is true.

 

[doug85]

11 wins could very well get you in the finals (in 23 round season) for all we know. No point making statements as facts mate. You're better than that

Think about what you just said and who you’re talking about

 

[eth-dog]

Think about what you just said and who you’re talking about

Also read the post. I said unlikely. I didn't say it won't.

Sorry, I forgot who I was talking to.

 

[Bombers36]

5th - we are ****in 5th! Bring on the Cats


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[doug85]

Also read the post. I said unlikely. I didn't say it won't.

Sorry, I forgot who I was talking to.

Calm down. I actually agree with your post. Just having some fun with Yoda

 

[Tassieboy]

Carlton winning probably helps

 

[Tassieboy]

I know it doesn’t always work out this way but we will likely win against North and West Coast; and likely to lose to Collingwood. That means we might need to win 2 of Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Sydney and GWS. I think we are playing finals.

 

[doug85]

I know it doesn’t always work out this way but we will likely win against North and West Coast; and likely to lose to Collingwood. That means we might need to win 2 of Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Sydney and GWS. I think we are playing finals.

I reckon we’ll beat Sydney. GWS and the dogs are 50/50s imo

 

[Schnitzengruben]

When we win our first elim final, I'm gonna give you the biggest noogie eth-dog

 

[outersanctum]

Huge win against Crows. I think finals are realistic chance irrespective of the next fortnight. If we win against Cats and Dogs then clearly finals are almost a lock. If we win 1 out of the 2 then we would still be looking very likely. Lose both and it gets harder but I still think we have a good shot.

I think you can assume 2 wins from Norf and WCE. That gives you 11 wins and I think you need 13.. so the real absolute key games for this group are Sydney and GWS. They are both winnable and if we win both of those then we play finals. If we drop either of them then we need to pull an upset against Pies in the last round (and there is a good chance they will be resting players with their position locked) in a win and in situation.

Clearly I'd love to win over the next two weeks but I don't think either are season ending.

 

[SpeckieMcVeigh]

I know it doesn’t always work out this way but we will likely win against North and West Coast; and likely to lose to Collingwood. That means we might need to win 2 of Geelong, Western Bulldogs, Sydney and GWS. I think we are playing finals.

None of those games are easy either.

 

[Yoda_]

None of those games are easy either.

If we make finals, we've earnt it

 

[outersanctum]

If we make finals, we've earnt it

The league, for all its flaws, is a very even one. Most years the teams that make finals have earnt it. No such thing as an 'easy' draw really.

For this team, it isn't just the W/L it is how we have played. In most games we have looked competitive.. we've had statement wins against Melbourne and Richmond. We pushed Port to the line x 2. We had Pies within reach until a 20 minute flat patch. We have beaten all teams that we were heavily favoured against. We had good wins against Suns and Giants and FC.

It has been a very consistent, solid season thus far. The only disappointments for me have been our flat start against Saints, the Brisbane game and the last quarter against Pies. Other than that.. I really can't find too many flaws with how we have played. That makes me happy.

 

[ant555]

11 wins could very well get you in the finals (in 23 round season) for all we know. No point making statements as facts mate. You're better than that

If you actually do the ladder predictor multiple times 13 wins is the safe number 95% of the time you do it. 11 wins only got you into finals a very small percentage of times and it will not this year. Also one would think you would be good enough to actually read what was said before going the man. He did say unlikely and the fact is with an extra game it is actually unlikely given a few in the frame have a draw as well. It could well be 12.5 is the cut off. I have run the ladder predictor with a lot of different results and 12 wins got sides into the eight twice out of twenty.

 

[Bombers36]

I'm not discounting the possibility but it's hardly a lock. St Kilda have a pretty easy 4 weeks after this week so if they win, they'll be hard to pass.

And if Gold Coast get pumped again this week (likely), I doubt that will be the case come Monday.

Saints pretty much cooked now - especially with King out for the rest of the season - I think GCoast will beat them this week and put them out of their misery. Its not the Saints we need to worry about - the Crows play 4 of their last 7 games at home & also play WCoast so could conceivably win 5 more games and still play finals. For me I think the Saints will drop out of the 8 and the Crows will come back in - this will probably happen this week

 

[Mercurial89]

Saints pretty much cooked now - especially with King out for the rest of the season - I think GCoast will beat them this week and put them out of their misery. Its not the Saints we need to worry about - the Crows play 4 of their last 7 games at home & also play WCoast so could conceivably win 5 more games and still play finals. For me I think the Saints will drop out of the 8 and the Crows will come back in - this will probably happen this week

Some of the saints best form has been with King out of the side earlier this year so we have a sizable chunk of games as evidence that they can cope without him.

 

[FlyingV]

11 wins could very well get you in the finals (in 23 round season) for all we know. No point making statements as facts mate. You're better than that

Cringe.

 

[eth-dog]

Saints pretty much cooked now - especially with King out for the rest of the season - I think GCoast will beat them this week and put them out of their misery. Its not the Saints we need to worry about - the Crows play 4 of their last 7 games at home & also play WCoast so could conceivably win 5 more games and still play finals. For me I think the Saints will drop out of the 8 and the Crows will come back in - this will probably happen this week

Nah. Saints have Gold Coast who have lost 3/4 by an average margin of 57 points, with their win being against Hawthorne. After that they have North, Hawthorne, Carlton and Richmond. Win 4 of those and they're in.

They're on the same amount of points with an arguably easier fixture left. We probably drop out this week.

 

[Don Won]

I ran the squiggle about 32 times on my way to work, and the majority of the time it was some combination of Adelaide, bulldogs, geelong and Essendon in 5-8. Makes these three weeks very interesting, good to see how we stack up.

 

[Call Me Cake]

Lot of the teams vying for spots in the 8 are playing each other in the back end of the season

Which bodes a little better for us

However we must not take Norf or even the Eagles lightly or bank them before the matches are even played. Every week is a hard week.