Analysis Season 2023 - Statistics and Analytics Thread

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ZoBlitz said:
Need to give you some kind of award Tom14 for regularly subjecting yourself to David King to provide this information for us.
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Tom is that monk from the da Vinci Code that whips himself while watching David King
 

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Elixuh said:
Tom is that monk from the da Vinci Code that whips himself while watching David King
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stanley kubrick so youre keen on musicccc GIF by Maudit
 

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This evening's result is not only marvellous for the elimination of the Bulldogs, but it also means we have beaten 4 top 8 teams on the road for the first time in our (merged) club's history.

Our previous best was in 1999 when we beat Carlton, Port Adelaide and Sydney, all away.
 
Posted in the match thread about the Shinboner website's finals dossier for Brisbane. This will be posted publicly later today I think but here's a few interesting snippets from it and I'll edit in a link to the full thing later so you can read it for yourself:

A snapshot of Brisbane’s home and away season​



Brisbane’s strengths: How they beat you​

It feels a little odd to use a game where Brisbane coughed up a 24-point lead with seven minutes to go as proof of how their ball movement improved, but what’s forgotten is up until that point, the Lions had sliced through Melbourne’s vaunted defence time and time again.

Over the first half of the season, their style of movement meant they would have been less likely to. Think back to Round 3 against the Western Bulldogs where they were content to take the percentage play time and time again, gifting the opposition exactly what they wanted.

Although Brisbane has always been a kick-heavy team – in the top two for kick to handball ratio in each of the last five years – as 2023 wore on they found the right balance in using it to attack, and it was on show against the Demons.

The key is how Brisbane looked for – and found – the soft spots in Melbourne’s defence. Here’s one elongated example…
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videopress.com

04-brisbane-v-melbourne-1-mp4

videopress.com videopress.com

Not sure the above video comes across as easily as it does on the shinboner page - so worth looking at the original post when it goes public.

Josh Dunkley’s arrival – along with Ashcroft until his season ending injury – simplified Brisbane’s midfield rotation considerably.

In 2022 it was Lachie Neale as an ever present, followed by Jarryd Lyons and Hugh McCluggage as distant second and third bananas, then a rotating, changing cast elsewhere from week to week.

This year it’s been Neale and Dunkley as full-time, reliable on-ballers. Having Dunkley as the two-way player in tight has allowed the Lions to be the best side in the competition in clearance differential. Their +153 this year is a far cry from their 2022 numbers: +13 and 10th in the league.

Although the Lions don’t light games on fire with their scoring from stoppages – 11th for points per clearance win – it’s the sheer weight of numbers which overwhelms opponents.

11th for points per clearance win translates to fifth for total points from clearances and fuels their forward half game. If a team is constantly winning stoppages, simple logic reasons they’ll have the ball closer to goal more often than not.

Having those two midfield linchpins has allowed Brisbane to mix and match their partners depending on game situation and player availability.
Click to expand...


The question: Are Brisbane a much better side than previous years?​

No doubt there have been improvements in certain areas this year. Dunkley has been vital, Ashcroft important until his injury, and Jack Payne has blossomed into a reliable key defender, allowing Harris Andrews to run his own race behind the ball.

For all that, there are still plenty of lingering questions on how Brisbane’s team defence will hold up without a contest advantage in high pressure games, and whether they can maintain the execution needed for their ball movement to translate into scoreboard pressure.

They’re the ultimate ‘prove it in finals’ test case. But of their five finals campaigns under Chris Fagan, this looms as the year where they don’t necessarily have to be much better than previous years to reach a Grand Final. Those incremental improvements, two home finals, and the overall evenness of the competition could all fall in Brisbane’s favour.
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BrainOfMorbius said:
I respect Squiggle and I think this suggests we (I) have massively underrated GWS this year. Are they a some kind of decent chance of making the GF? They are right up there in contention.

View attachment 1799833
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I think so. They're a heck of a team. A 6 day break leading into the Prelim against Collingwood will sort them out one way or the other... get through that and anything's possible.
 

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Grasshopper17 said:
Updated quarter by quarter stats ahead of this weekend's matches. Be on the lookout for both Melbourne and the Giants to finish very strongly.

View attachment 1803304
Click to expand...
A shame we don't have one for the last month on the teams left in the race.
That would be a bit more relevant heading into the GF.
 
Section 5 said:
A shame we don't have one for the last month on the teams left in the race.
That would be a bit more relevant heading into the GF.
Click to expand...
I see what you are trying to do here. And I'm all in.

Last 5 weeks (4 home and away rounds + finals week 1):

Screenshot_20230915_094552_Sheets.jpg
 
Belated post following on from the tuesday night Champion data segment on SEN - how contested ball is a big indicator for our record:



The key point is that we are 17-1 when we don't lose contested ball by double digits (i.e. -9 or better), but 1-5 when we lose contested ball by 10.

I like to nitpick champion data (and I had a quiet morning at work) so I actually went and looked at the other top 4 teams to see if we were a significant outlier on this stat. And in reality I think we are:

Pies

Contested ball differentialRecord
-10 or worse3-2
-9 or better16-3

Dees

Contested ball differentialRecord
-10 or worse2-1
-9 or better15-6

Port

Contested ball differentialRecord
-10 or worse4-4
-9 or better13-3

Port have the closest profile to us with a 4-4 record when they lose contested ball by double digits, so maybe it is an indicator of having a defence less able to compensate for when you are losing contested ball?
 
TeamP WDL
Western Bulldogs442123
Port Adelaide4221219
North Melbourne4221120
Geelong411724
Sydney4015124
Collingwood382315
St Kilda382216
Carlton382216
Adelaide382018
Hawthorn381721
Richmond3812125
Melbourne371918
West Coast371522
Essendon3618117
Fremantle341816
Gold Coast25187
Greater Western Sydney1587
TOTAL6213076308

Let's get back up to and over 50% by the end of the season, eh?
 
BrainOfMorbius said:
TeamP WDL
Western Bulldogs442123
Port Adelaide4221219
North Melbourne4221120
Geelong411724
Sydney4015124
Collingwood382315
St Kilda382216
Carlton382216
Adelaide382018
Hawthorn381721
Richmond3812125
Melbourne371918
West Coast371522
Essendon3618117
Fremantle341816
Gold Coast25187
Greater Western Sydney1587
TOTAL6213076308

Let's get back up to and over 50% by the end of the season, eh?
Click to expand...
What's this? We aren't even listed there?
 
Grasshopper17 said:
I see what you are trying to do here. And I'm all in.

Last 5 weeks (4 home and away rounds + finals week 1):

View attachment 1803394
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The 6 teams left in the finals.
Their last 5 games % per quarter and ACPQ rank
Taken from Grasshopper17 above chart.

Melbourne played: Nth, Blues, Hawks, Swans, Pies.
GWS played.......: Swans, Power, bombers, Blues, Saints.
Lions played......: Dockers, Crows, Pies, Saints, Power.
Carlton played...: Saints, demons, Suns, GWS, Swans.
Port played.......: Cats, GWS, Dockers, Tigers, Lions.
Pies played.......: Hawks, Cats, Lions, Bombers, Demons.

Team ACPQ Rank Year
(Last 5 games)		% per Quarter 1Quarter 2Quarter 3Quarter 4ACPQ
Last 5 Games
Melbourne2 (2) 84.9160.9126.9254.138.19%
GWS 1 (3)102.9117.9147.5140.513.19%
Brisbane lions16 (5)104.3112.6127.1125.9 6.37%
Carlton13 (6) 95.8121.8 79.2126.3 4.32%
Port10 (8)101.2113.6120.6 97.3-0.43%
Pies15 (17)102.7144.3126.4 62.1-11.05%
 
BrainOfMorbius said:
Sorry, it's our results against each team since the merger
Click to expand...
I can think of several times over the years where we've beaten ourselves but can't see that in the table?
 
Updated quarter by quarter stats.

Full season:

Screenshot_20230918_132511_Sheets.jpg

And the last 5 weeks (Preliminary Final teams only):

Screenshot_20230918_132720_Sheets.jpg

It's interesting to look at the remaining 4 teams. Our opponent, Carlton, did win their last quarter against Melbourne but they conceded 8 scores to 6 and to be honest looked out on their feet. The game before that they lost the last quarter (and the 3rd quarter) to Sydney, a team who has really struggled to run out games this year, as evidenced by the chart above. And it was comprehensive: 4 scores to 8 in the third and 3 scores to 7 in the last. Before that, they got blown off the park by the Giants in the last quarter and a half.

In the other game, Collingwood are highly regarded for their ability to run out games and win the close ones. But in their Qualifying Final, they really were obliterated in the last quarter, and were lucky to only concede 5 scores while having 2 of their own. The game before that, admittedly a nothing 2nd half against Essendon, they still conceded 10 scores to 7 after half time. Our last quarter was impressive against them, even Dad's army Geelong kicked 5 goals to 3 against them in the last. You have to go back to Round 19 against Port to find the last time they comprehensively outscored any team in the last quarter.

Even their opponents, the Giants, despite being at the top of both tables above, in their two finals they have "done enough" rather than putting the foot on the throat. 10 scores against to 2 in the last quarter against Port, after conceding 5 to 4 against St Kilda.

On the flipside, in our recent last quarters we've had 7 shots to 2 against Port, 9 to 3 against St Kilda, 8 to 6 against Collingwood. It's actually a pretty good recent record, certainly compared to the 3 remaining teams, and that's certainly something I didn't think I'd be writing a month ago. Indeed, our last quarters have been our best in the last 5 weeks 😳
 
Grasshopper17 said:
Updated quarter by quarter stats.

Full season:

View attachment 1809047

And the last 5 weeks (Preliminary Final teams only):

View attachment 1809048

It's interesting to look at the remaining 4 teams. Our opponent, Carlton, did win their last quarter against Melbourne but they conceded 8 scores to 6 and to be honest looked out on their feet. The game before that they lost the last quarter (and the 3rd quarter) to Sydney, a team who has really struggled to run out games this year, as evidenced by the chart above. And it was comprehensive: 4 scores to 8 in the third and 3 scores to 7 in the last. Before that, they got blown off the park by the Giants in the last quarter and a half.

In the other game, Collingwood are highly regarded for their ability to run out games and win the close ones. But in their Qualifying Final, they really were obliterated in the last quarter, and were lucky to only concede 5 scores while having 2 of their own. The game before that, admittedly a nothing 2nd half against Essendon, they still conceded 10 scores to 7 after half time. Our last quarter was impressive against them, even Dad's army Geelong kicked 5 goals to 3 against them in the last. You have to go back to Round 19 against Port to find the last time they comprehensively outscored any team in the last quarter.

Even their opponents, the Giants, despite being at the top of both tables above, in their two finals they have "done enough" rather than putting the foot on the throat. 10 scores against to 2 in the last quarter against Port, after conceding 5 to 4 against St Kilda.

On the flipside, in our recent last quarters we've had 7 shots to 2 against Port, 9 to 3 against St Kilda, 8 to 6 against Collingwood. It's actually a pretty good recent record, certainly compared to the 3 remaining teams, and that's certainly something I didn't think I'd be writing a month ago. Indeed, our last quarters have been our best in the last 5 weeks 😳
Click to expand...
Something I observed in our last couple of games was the number of goals we kicked in red time. I saw this as previously a weakness of ours. That was always the strength of the 3peat teams. You always knew they would never give up.
 
LongLion said:
Something I observed in our last couple of games was the number of goals we kicked in red time. I saw this as previously a weakness of ours. That was always the strength of the 3peat teams. You always knew they would never give up.
Click to expand...
Yeah this too is interesting.

Red time records in Finals:

Collingwood 2-1 (13) v Melbourne 0
Collingwood 0 v Melbourne 0-2 (2)
Collingwood 1-1 (7) v Melbourne 1-3 (9)
Collingwood 0 v Melbourne 1-0 (6)
--------------------------------------------------
Collingwood 3-2 (20) v Melbourne 2-5 (17)

Carlton 1-1 (7) v Sydney 0-2 (2)
Carlton 2-0 (12) v Sydney 1-1 (7)
Carlton 1-0 (6) v Sydney 2-1 (13)
Carlton 1-0 (6) v Sydney 1-2 (8)
--------------------------------------------------
Carlton 5-1 (31) v Sydney 4-6 (30)

St Kilda 0-2 (2) v GWS 3-2 (20)
St Kilda 4-1 (25) v GWS 2-0 (12)
St Kilda 3-0 (18) v GWS 2-0 (12)
St Kilda 1-1 (7) v GWS 0
--------------------------------------------------
St Kilda 8-4 (52) v GWS 7-2 (44)

Brisbane 1-1 (7) v Port 1-1 (7)
Brisbane 3-1 (19) v Port 2-0 (12)
Brisbane 4-0 (24) v Port 1-2 (8)
Brisbane 1-2 (8) v Port 2-0 (12)
--------------------------------------------------
Brisbane 9-4 (58) v Port 6-3 (39)

Melbourne 0 v Carlton 2-0 (12)
Melbourne 0-3 (3) v Carlton 0-1 (1)
Melbourne 1-2 (8) v Carlton 0-1 (1)
Melbourne 0-2 (2) v Carlton 2-1 (13)
--------------------------------------------------
Melbourne 1-7 (13) v Carlton 4-3 (27)

Port 2-0 (12) v GWS 2-3 (15)
Port 0-4 (4) v GWS 0-4 (4)
Port 0 v GWS 0-3 (3)
Port 0-4 (4) v GWS 1-0 (6)
--------------------------------------------------
Port 2-8 (20) v GWS 3-10 (28)

So overall it's

TeamForAgainst%Scores forScores againstScores %Weighted %
Brisbane9-4 (58)6-3 (39)148.7139144.4146.6
Sydney4-6 (30)5-1 (31)96.8106166.7131.8
St Kilda8-4 (52)7-2 (44)118.2129133.3125.8
Carlton9-4 (58)5-13 (43)134.9131872.2103.4
GWS10-12 (72)10-12 (72)100.02222100.0100.0
Collingwood3-2 (20)2-5 (17)117.75771.494.6
Melbourne3-12 (30)7-5 (47)63.81512125.094.4
Port8-11 (59)12-14 (86)68.6192673.170.8

Interestingly though, we scored 9 goals to 6 in red time against Port, which means we scored 10 goals to 5 for the rest of the game. I think as a general trend, the only concrete observation is that scoring is heavier in red time, at both ends.
 
Grasshopper17 said:
Updated quarter by quarter stats.

Full season:

View attachment 1809047

And the last 5 weeks (Preliminary Final teams only):

View attachment 1809048

It's interesting to look at the remaining 4 teams. Our opponent, Carlton, did win their last quarter against Melbourne but they conceded 8 scores to 6 and to be honest looked out on their feet. The game before that they lost the last quarter (and the 3rd quarter) to Sydney, a team who has really struggled to run out games this year, as evidenced by the chart above. And it was comprehensive: 4 scores to 8 in the third and 3 scores to 7 in the last. Before that, they got blown off the park by the Giants in the last quarter and a half.

In the other game, Collingwood are highly regarded for their ability to run out games and win the close ones. But in their Qualifying Final, they really were obliterated in the last quarter, and were lucky to only concede 5 scores while having 2 of their own. The game before that, admittedly a nothing 2nd half against Essendon, they still conceded 10 scores to 7 after half time. Our last quarter was impressive against them, even Dad's army Geelong kicked 5 goals to 3 against them in the last. You have to go back to Round 19 against Port to find the last time they comprehensively outscored any team in the last quarter.

Even their opponents, the Giants, despite being at the top of both tables above, in their two finals they have "done enough" rather than putting the foot on the throat. 10 scores against to 2 in the last quarter against Port, after conceding 5 to 4 against St Kilda.

On the flipside, in our recent last quarters we've had 7 shots to 2 against Port, 9 to 3 against St Kilda, 8 to 6 against Collingwood. It's actually a pretty good recent record, certainly compared to the 3 remaining teams, and that's certainly something I didn't think I'd be writing a month ago. Indeed, our last quarters have been our best in the last 5 weeks 😳
Click to expand...

Timing our run baby!
 
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