Analysis Season 2023 - Statistics and Analytics Thread

[jjami15]

I keep a record of this. Not so much wins and losses... More raw %'s. This is how it stood after Round 7:

View attachment 1680443

Slope basically means "if you draw a line of best fit through each of the %'s for each quarter, a team's percentage changes by that amount each quarter". So our percentage falls by 15% on average each quarter.

Wow, that is some impressive data that you have there. It is interesting though that our first and second quarters show that we do start our games fairly well and therefore there is the mindset albeit unintentionally or intentionally to drop away in that last quarter. I am glad that we are 6 and 2.

 

[Elixuh]

We have had mostly negative fourth quarters this year but for different reasons.

Eg

Have had a decent lead by the third quarter and game is basically done

Got reamed by port and game over by the third

Lights out at the Gabba allowing Melb to ream us when we had a large lead

I wouldn’t say we are a bad fourth quarter team. I’d only say that if we were losing matches by virtue of the fourth quarter - whether that’s losing a lead or losing an arm wrestle of a match.

We haven’t done that this season.

 

[martinson]

In 2021; Melbourne had one win over 10 goals (about 100 vs suns)

I remember when Fitzroy kicked the highest score ever. And absolutely burying teams when we were near the top of the ladder. Bur for one reason or another that didn't help us in real pressure games when we were under the pump.

I don't think burying teams is worth anything except a percentage boost on that particular day. But the mark of a great team is to keep the pressure gauge up to the extent that the opposition never gets a real sniff.

Remember 2004 when we absolutely buried St Kilda I think it was in one of the final H/A matches and my mates were all saying no one could ever possibly beat us. But we copped a few injuries , a couple of things went against us and we were vulnerable.

My point being big wins are good for the ego ,not much else.

 

[McIvor]

AFL Ladder 2023

AFL Ladder 2023.

www.footywire.com

14th in W-L. 8th highest points for, 4th highest points against.

Top 2 in the other quarters though.

Had a look deeper and thought the last quarter numbers are pretty poor on our part - althgh great in Q2 and 3

2023
Q1 -	Lions by 38	W5-L2-D1-T8
Q2 -	Lions by 91	W5-L2-D1-T8
Q3 -	Lions by 54	W6-L1-D1-T8
Q4 -	Opp by 37	W3-L5-D0-T8
Total	Lions by 146	W19-L10-D3-T32
2023
Quarter	Goals Lions	Goals Opp	Difference
Q1	30	24	6
Q2	31	17	14
Q3	37	28	9
Q4	22	29	-7
TOTAL	120	98	22

 

[martinson]

I remember when Fitzroy kicked the highest score ever. And absolutely burying teams when we were near the top of the ladder. Bur for one reason or another that didn't help us in real pressure games when we were under the pump.

I don't think burying teams is worth anything except a percentage boost on that particular day. But the mark of a great team is to keep the pressure gauge up to the extent that the opposition never gets a real sniff.

Remember 2004 when we absolutely buried St Kilda I think it was in one of the final H/A matches and my mates were all saying no one could ever possibly beat us. But we copped a few injuries , a couple of things went against us and we were vulnerable.

My point being big wins are good for the ego ,not much else.

All the champion teams of any era have been the most physically intimidating.

Not a matter of playing scintillating footy and winning by 10 goals.

It's all about physical pressure around the contest and never relenting from that.

 

[Grasshopper17]

It's also possible that this, which such a strong showing in the first half, is giving us data points of we are doing more then enough to win games and then easing off to prepare for the next week.

I might be giving them the benefit of the doubt there though haha.

Mmmm... You may have a point. However I'd want to take a bit of a longer, more heads up view.

During the early 2000s teams used to come to the Gabba and they were already beaten before the first bounce. Maybe we'd absolutely belted the living suitcase out of somebody else last week... Or maybe also we'd belted that team last time we played them.

Look at Geelong v Sydney. I'm quite certain that if Geelong hadn't won that Grand Final by 81 points, there is no way they'd have beaten the Swans by 93 points the other week down at Geelong. And I don't care how many Sydney had out.

So to me there's a real mental aspect to this. Think about our Semi Final vs Melbourne last year... Remember what Zorks and co mentioned the whole night: "Melbourne are suspect in second halves, don't give up, we'll come back at them". Well guess what, there will be teams out there who are probably thinking the same thing about us right now.

Compare that to when we played Melbourne in Round 15 last year. The half time margin was 30 points: not that different to the semi. But Melbourne didn't have that reputation back then, so we basically just chucked in the towel.

So running out games and last quarters well is not just about winning the game you're playing in that moment. It's about getting right into their head the next time you play them, and getting right into the heads of other teams you are about to play. Just look at Collingwood - they're in almost everyone's heads.

 

[M Malice]

Had a look deeper and thought the last quarter numbers are pretty poor on our part - althgh great in Q2 and 3

2023
Q1 -	Lions by 38	W5-L2-D1-T8
Q2 -	Lions by 91	W5-L2-D1-T8
Q3 -	Lions by 54	W6-L1-D1-T8
Q4 -	Opp by 37	W3-L5-D0-T8
Total	Lions by 146	W19-L10-D3-T32
2023
Quarter	Goals Lions	Goals Opp	Difference
Q1	30	24	6
Q2	31	17	14
Q3	37	28	9
Q4	22	29	-7
TOTAL	120	98	22

2nd quarters are impressive, backs the "vibe" I have at the game that when the coaches get hold of them at quarter time the team soaks up the information and puts it into action

On the 4th quarters I agree with a couple of posters from yesterday who said we are changing our style and attempting to shut down the game far too early and this leads to a slight subconscious drop off in our pressure game. Could be the coaches not wanting to run our players into the ground though ie. fatigue management, it's a long season.

 

[Sanchez365]

It's hard to comment too much on our fourth quarters, things are normally getting a little blurry by then if you catch my drift.

There's no doubt we have some concept of conservation going on. The mindset of the players (either coached or not) is just get the win and hold the lead. It's also hard to keep up the pressure game we are playing for 4 quarters, and tbh the only time is has completely dropped away was after the lights went out against Melbourne.

I'm also pretty sure Melbourne scored about 7 goals in that time, which if you take that away our last quarters all of a sudden are break even score wise against our opponents and don't stick out as such a big deal.

As a team we have been developing into the season nicely and as a collective are getting better every week. The forward half pressure didn't drop away too much against Carlton last week (in the 4th), so its something we are building on. I think we are still trending in the right direction and I'm feeling a lot more convinced of our play this season then I was at any point last year.

 

[Grasshopper17]

Pretty heartened to hear on SEN yesterday Zorks bring up the last quarter (unprompted, like Fages in his press conference), and how they'd like to improve that. Seems they may actually make this a focus in coming weeks.

Let's see.

 

[M Malice]

Pretty heartened to hear on SEN yesterday Zorks bring up the last quarter (unprompted, like Fages in his press conference), and how they'd like to improve that. Seems they may actually make this a focus in coming weeks.

Let's see.

Hodgey on SEN saying the Lions are his tip for the flag this season, they seem to have fixed their problem re defensive run, they have everything you need to win a flag.

 

[The Flying Belgian]

Hodgey on SEN saying the Lions are his tip for the flag this season, they seem to have fixed their problem re defensive run, they have everything you need to win a flag.

I think it'll take the footy world a little while to wake up to what we're doing defensively, and by that I mean all 18 players on the field. People bagged out the defensive unit last year, but it should have been easy to see that when the mids and forwards don't defend, there's only so much the backs can do. Our pressure acts looks to be far above anyone else's.

 

[Nathan Barley]

I think it'll take the footy world a little while to wake up to what we're doing defensively, and by that I mean all 18 players on the field. People bagged out the defensive unit last year, but it should have been easy to see that when the mids and forwards don't defend, there's only so much the backs can do. Our pressure acts looks to be far above anyone else's.

Still a way to go I think. We're mid table for points against. I don't think we'll ever be a team to strangle oppositions consistently but it should help cover for when our forwards can't get on top. Or Charlie gets shut down

 

[Nunez]

You may be correct. However there are plenty of studies that show clear links between the two.

Would be interesting to see the same data but with the port game removed+ post blackout removed. I think those two games are skewing this quite a bit and suspect it'll look a lot better come years end.

 

[Dalions]

Would be interesting to see the same data but with the port game removed+ post blackout removed. I think those two games are skewing this quite a bit and suspect it'll look a lot better come years end.

Melbourne had kicked 45 points to 3/4 time in that game so without that last 12 mins, defensively it was an awesome game.
Port was a write off start to finish, even the first half we were never really in it, kinda lucky in the first half.

 

[Tom14]

Would be interesting to see the same data but with the port game removed+ post blackout removed. I think those two games are skewing this quite a bit and suspect it'll look a lot better come years end.

Outside of the Port game the worst points we've conceded this year is 87 against the Giants - and that took quite a lot of frankly lucky bounces from hack kicks outside of their D50 to occur, plus some very good accuracy.

Other than that all our scores against have been below 85, and we've failed to score above 85 just twice.

 

[Tom14]

From Footy Classified last night:

 

[Tom14]

Update on expected score against - St Kilda continues to get lucky with their opponent's conversion against them, with north scoring 31 less than expected. For comparison, North scored 13 more than expected against us.




Champion Data has the discrepancy even higher on their expected score numbers:

 

[Mr Ripper]

Update on expected score against - St Kilda continues to get lucky with their opponent's conversion against them, with north scoring 31 less than expected. For comparison, North scored 13 more than expected against us.

Ross has the opposition spooked.

 

[Tom14]

Will take this opportunity to plug the Shinboner patreon page - the writer is a Norf fan but does analysis on the whole comp. This was his review/look ahead for us last year: Look Back/Look Ahead: Brisbane - The Shinboner

Here's the interesting table I'd love to see for this year:

Brisbane’s defensive rank (points per 100 possession chains)	Round 1-9	Round 10-23
Opposition scores from stoppages	1st	16th
Opposition scores from turnovers	4th	13th
Opposition scores from their defensive half	4th	15th
Opposition scores from their forward half	7th	10th

My guess is that we'd be much improved but still in the 4-8 range for these areas. I have a suspicion that the port game in particular would have been really bad for scores from stoppages.

 

[ZoBlitz]

I was also going to give props to the Shinboner, provides some really fascinating analysis. His latest post is about Dunkley's game against Carlton (I think that's available for non-Patreon supporters as well but apologies if not).

 

[Tom14]

I was also going to give props to the Shinboner, provides some really fascinating analysis. His latest post is about Dunkley's game against Carlton (I think that's available for non-Patreon supporters as well but apologies if not).

I reckon it might be available for everyone now, I think the non-north review posts/follow up from the weekend of footy ones start as patreon exclusives for a day or so and then go public?

 

[Sanchez365]

I was also going to give props to the Shinboner, provides some really fascinating analysis. His latest post is about Dunkley's game against Carlton (I think that's available for non-Patreon supporters as well but apologies if not).

That last clip as well really typified why I have been so impressed by Dunkley. We didn't have a midfielder that would play with that defensive mindset who is happy to sit behind the play and support the defense like him. He was a dream pickup in the off season and I hazard a guess his example is why others in the forward line have really improved their defensive focus.

 

[Royboy1961]

I remember when Fitzroy kicked the highest score ever. And absolutely burying teams when we were near the top of the ladder. Bur for one reason or another that didn't help us in real pressure games when we were under the pump.

I don't think burying teams is worth anything except a percentage boost on that particular day. But the mark of a great team is to keep the pressure gauge up to the extent that the opposition never gets a real sniff.

Remember 2004 when we absolutely buried St Kilda I think it was in one of the final H/A matches and my mates were all saying no one could ever possibly beat us. But we copped a few injuries , a couple of things went against us and we were vulnerable.

My point being big wins are good for the ego ,not much else.

Hi Martinson, love your post. I too have been following this game for decades and have watched our team thrash opposition sides. As you have already said it’s both good for the ego and percentage and very little else. Winning by more than 4 goals in my opinion is a comfortable win these days. I was fortunate to be able to the game against Carlton on Friday night and was happy with the performance. Carlton is a talented side and we were able to execute a game plan that took away their strengths. Dunkley was phenomenal our two key backs were sensational and forward line fabulous. If we kicked straight from gettable shots we should have won by two or three more goals. The lions now seem to have a trend to play a slower shutdown brand of football in the last quarter to try to limit the oppositions scoring. They have been playing this style for a while and to their credit even stopped Collingwood from scoring big in the last quarter which is difficult to do. I only watch the game live in Victoria so am not as conversant with their game style at Brisbane. Supporters but have noticed that that we are now working on our defensive game which was our weakest link last year. We have now recruited faster backman that can apply pressure and the midfield are now playing more accountable football. Their is no point in playing our A game at the moment but we do need to still work on our defensive side of our game still.

 

[Elixuh]

From Footy Classified last night:

View attachment 1682707

Damn they’re onto us.

 

[KissKiss]

I was also going to give props to the Shinboner, provides some really fascinating analysis. His latest post is about Dunkley's game against Carlton (I think that's available for non-Patreon supporters as well but apologies if not).

I hadnt seen their work before that is really impressive. Will have to check more of them out