Analysis Season 2023 - Statistics and Analytics Thread

[Denno]

4th quarter is a bit of a weird one, how much does it really mean? I would guess that close to 50% of games are pretty much over early in the 4th quarter. We were probably a great 4th quarter team 2014-2016 because the game was over.

We seem to have the ability to kick enough goals to get a buffer of 4-5 goals and when other teams push us we can keep them just out of reach of really putting us under pressure.

100%.

I'm not reading anything into 4th quarter stats at all (yet). Think we've done the hard work prior, and it may be a directive (who knows?) to ensure we don't burn out later in the year.

Far more comfortable with the way we're playing compared to previous years, on exposed form so far.

Yet again, next to nothing in the Melb media on us after our latest win. Everything about Collingwood and Melbourne being the top 2 seeds.

Maybe that's a good thing............

 

[M Malice]

100%.

I'm not reading anything into 4th quarter stats at all (yet). Think we've done the hard work prior, and it may be a directive (who knows?) to ensure we don't burn out later in the year.

Far more comfortable with the way we're playing compared to previous years, on exposed form so far.

Yet again, next to nothing in the Melb media on us after our latest win. Everything about Collingwood and Melbourne being the top 2 seeds.

Maybe that's a good thing............

Our away game against the Crows in 2 weeks will be a huge game as far as the media narrative goes, particularly if the Crows beat the Dogs this weekend IMO.

The Crows are Melbourne footy media darlings at the moment, some even talking them up as flag chances.

 

[KissKiss]

I got you

Updated to the end of Round 9

View attachment 1688932

Im probably more interested in how the real contending opposition are going from this.

Collingwood and Melbourne finish hard. They have belief and fitness to come at teams in the last. We matched them well at home but playing away with a hostile crowd baying them home will be a real challenge. There is no switching off and playing safe against them.

Geelong is the opposite it seems (although their form has flipped so may need reviewing). If you can match them to start the game they will drop away in the last. So its a different mindset which we know how to do.

Port you need to go at them hard but they are a real up and down team. Think we will match up better next time

 

[DERRINALPHIL]

I keep a record of this. Not so much wins and losses... More raw %'s. This is how it stood after Round 7:

View attachment 1680443

Slope basically means "if you draw a line of best fit through each of the %'s for each quarter, a team's percentage changes by that amount each quarter". So our percentage falls by 15% on average each quarter.

Could I ask for you to update this week on week?

 

[Grasshopper17]

Could I ask for you to update this week on week?

You mean this?

 

[25 years on]

There are two factors when they happen at the same time concern me, first, our forth quarter ease up when we are comfortably in front and the oppositions shit or bust attacks gets a couple of goals, other teams see this and see shit or bust play is our weakness. The other is that when we start a quarter complacent we can't turn that round quick enough to stop the opposition getting a lot of scoring opportunities

 

[Grasshopper17]

There are two factors when they happen at the same time concern me, first, our forth quarter ease up when we are comfortably in front and the oppositions s**t or bust attacks gets a couple of goals, other teams see this and see s**t or bust play is our weakness. The other is that when we start a quarter complacent we can't turn that round quick enough to stop the opposition getting a lot of scoring opportunities

So basically any time we concede consecutive goals.

Yeah, me too.

 

[DERRINALPHIL]

You mean this?

Your weekly analysis of our quarter by quarter scores

 

[Nunez]

I'd be a lot more concerned if I were Collingwood and constantly giving up leads and having to make a comeback to win. People applaud them for their ability to do so, but I'd almost guarantee it will bite them on the ass in finals.

 

[M Malice]

I'd be a lot more concerned if I were Collingwood and constantly giving up leads and having to make a comeback to win. People applaud them for their ability to do so, but I'd almost guarantee it will bite them on the ass in finals.

It bit them in the arse in 2022.. lot harder to come back in big finals against the best teams.

QF- Cats 11-12-78 d Magpies 10-12-72.

PF- Swans 14-11-95 d Magpies 14-10-94.

 

[Tom14]

Small snippet from Daniel Hoyne's appearance on SEN's sportsday last night - worth noting that in the audio format it was a bit hard to clearly work out the exact parameters of the stat raised:

• Brisbane #2 for turning our posession into a score; #1 for preventing a score when the opposition gains possession

Not clear to me whether this is a scores for and against from intercept measure purely or if it is whenever possession is won/lost (i.e. including stoppage, kick-ins etc). Might be more in the show he does with David King today (at least the 10 minutes of it that aren't gambling ads). The other caveat that wasn't clear was whether this stat included or excluded round 1.

In any case whatever this measure was, only twice has a team been #1 in both categories - the Cats last year and in 2007.

Also shouted out Cam Rayner for his performance on the weekend - second highest rated player after Joe, second most contested possessions in the second half after Neale, number one pressure player in the second half.

 

[JasRulz63]

Also shouted out Cam Rayner for his performance on the weekend - second highest rated player after Joe, second most contested possessions in the second half after Neale, number one pressure player in the second half.

This is the most exciting stat.

It does make you wonder how much having players like Dunkley in the club helps the defensive culture and buy in of the other players. Even just seeing how hard he works would be an eye opener since we haven't really had a midfielder that works that hard defensively in a while.

 

[martinson]

This is the most exciting stat.

It does make you wonder how much having players like Dunkley in the club helps the defensive culture and buy in of the other players. Even just seeing how hard he works would be an eye opener since we haven't really had a midfielder that works that hard defensively in a while.

Improved defensive efforts with quite a few players . Cameron ,Hipwood, McCarthy going to new levels, even Joe.

Maybe the penny's dropping that if you work really hard defensively it can result in goals.

 

[JasRulz63]

Here's an interesting stat.

Pressure act differential (vs opponent)
1. Brisbane +37.9
2. Gold Coast +17.4
3. Sydney +17.3
4. Port +12.8
5. WC 10.1
6. Freo +6.9

Conversely we are 16th in tackle differential (-5.8).

AFL Team Statistics

AFL team statistics.

www.wheeloratings.com

 

[Elixuh]

Here's an interesting stat.

Pressure act differential (vs opponent)
1. Brisbane +37.9
2. Gold Coast +17.4
3. Sydney +17.3
4. Port +12.8
5. WC 10.1
6. Freo +6.9

Conversely we are 16th in tackle differential (-5.8).

AFL Team Statistics

AFL team statistics.

www.wheeloratings.com

I think it’s an interesting strategy with the way HtB and correct disposal is interpreted. Overcommitting to tackling can lead to a breakdown in defence when the oppo is allowed to just throw the ball out and keep it moving forward.

 

[JasRulz63]

I think it’s an interesting strategy with the way HtB and correct disposal is interpreted. Overcommitting to tackling can lead to a breakdown in defence when the oppo is allowed to just throw the ball out and keep it moving forward.

Yeah, might as well start recording an "off load" stat like in rugby.

 

[Grasshopper17]

I think it’s an interesting strategy with the way HtB and correct disposal is interpreted. Overcommitting to tackling can lead to a breakdown in defence when the oppo is allowed to just throw the ball out and keep it moving forward.

Also in the current climate of dangerous tackles being penalised and players being suspended left, right and centre, it makes sense to be tackling less if there's an alternative.

That said we did lay 75 tackles against Carlton so

 

[Tom14]

Here's an interesting stat.

Pressure act differential (vs opponent)
1. Brisbane +37.9
2. Gold Coast +17.4
3. Sydney +17.3
4. Port +12.8
5. WC 10.1
6. Freo +6.9

Conversely we are 16th in tackle differential (-5.8).

AFL Team Statistics

AFL team statistics.

www.wheeloratings.com

My guess to be honest is that most of this differential would be because we are the most direct team in the comp and handball the least in the comp - it is harder to record pressure acts if the opposition isn't using it by handball a lot (less opportunities). But I do think there is something to our defensive approach which is leading to some of the differential and we are 6th in pure numbers of pressure acts that we average per game.

I looked at this earlier in this thread and the opposition tackles against was also pretty low but after a few more weeks seems to be just below AFL average.

 

[M Malice]

Defensively we are moving forward in waves... IIRC it was Fagan who mentioned us staying focused/brave and continued moving forward when challenged by the Magpies fast play on/running past handball receives method. This is resulting in significantly more knock downs in handball chains, not as many going into a tackle or getting sucked into a contest, it is particularly noticeable on the TV coverage ie. player/s will arrive quickly on screen to pressure a handball receiver, we are sprinting to those situations not dawdling.

 

[Tom14]

Defensively we are moving forward in waves... IIRC it was Fagan who mentioned us staying focused/brave and continued moving forward when challenged by the Magpies fast play on/running past handball receives method. This is resulting in significantly more knock downs in handball chains, not as many going into a tackle or getting sucked into a contest, it is particularly noticeable on the TV coverage ie. player/s will arrive quickly on screen to pressure a handball receiver, we are sprinting to those situations not dawdling.

It is striking to see how many times one of our mids jumps up to block a handball over the top - even if it gets through often the handball is even more loopy and high than usual which allows the rest of the defense to catch up, or if it forces the ball carrier to hold the ball that's another split second for another player to catch up and tackle from behind/pressure.

 

[SizeMatters]

Improved defensive efforts with quite a few players . Cameron ,Hipwood, McCarthy going to new levels, even Joe.

Maybe the penny's dropping that if you work really hard defensively it can result in goals.

About ****ing time too.

This is our year. Booked hotel and flights to Melbourne for grand final weekend.

 

[buttermuffs]

Defensively we are moving forward in waves... IIRC it was Fagan who mentioned us staying focused/brave and continued moving forward when challenged by the Magpies fast play on/running past handball receives method. This is resulting in significantly more knock downs in handball chains, not as many going into a tackle or getting sucked into a contest, it is particularly noticeable on the TV coverage ie. player/s will arrive quickly on screen to pressure a handball receiver, we are sprinting to those situations not dawdling.

Our next matchup will be interesting because from watching Collingwood on the weekend it seemed like they are adjusting. Whenever the Giants tried to intercept a handball chain it was sometimes met with the Collingwood player taking their time and choosing to hold it longer. It meant they often had a lot of space since GWS were more focused on the handball intercept than pressuring the player. Mainly saw this out of stoppage. Will be interesting to see how it progresses.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

 

[Dalions]

Our next matchup will be interesting because from watching Collingwood on the weekend it seemed like they are adjusting. Whenever the Giants tried to intercept a handball chain it was sometimes met with the Collingwood player taking their time and choosing to hold it longer. It meant they often had a lot of space since GWS were more focused on the handball intercept than pressuring the player. Mainly saw this out of stoppage. Will be interesting to see how it progresses.


Sent from my iPhone using BigFooty.com

GWS’s pressure rating was at around 119 on the weekend which is basically an all time low.
Anything under 160 is pretty shabby

 

[KissKiss]

GWS’s pressure rating was at around 119 on the weekend which is basically an all time low.
Anything under 160 is pretty shabby

I thought we were racked up a really low pressure rating against Collingwood as well? Something like this sitting back to intercept the high hand ball over the top wasnt counted.

I do note that our forward line pressure has been very high under the traditional measure though

 

[Sanchez365]

I thought we were racked up a really low pressure rating against Collingwood as well? Something like this sitting back to intercept the high hand ball over the top wasnt counted.

I do note that our forward line pressure has been very high under the traditional measure though.

That was mainly a theory I had, may not be super true haha. I think it was the north game though where we had that stat.