September Daily Punt - Spring is in the air

[Main Man]

I can understand why people wouldn't want to back him first up over 1200M but I'm not going to pot his NRM run, the fence might have been okay that day but not convinced it was any better than the middle, a lot of jockeys getting it completely wrong if it was.

Fwiw UTL's return didn't rate through the roof with me, it was a nice return and he is open to improvement but if he doesn't improve than plenty of horses in this race are capable of returning similar figures. For eg Defcon only rated 0.5 lengths lower and ran a marginally stronger last 200M rating.

Obviously if he does improve he will take beating but as I said there are plenty here including Xtravagant capable of beating him on his first up run.

His Flem 1200M runs have been good but is yet to win at the track and trip, will be dictated to by pace and can see him flashing late again, whether its Xtravagant that beats him I don't know.

I will say that I reckon there is more chance of X coming out and blowing them away than their is of UTL doing the same.

 

[rideclutch]

Happy that Omei is running despite the Waller spin, won't be winning.

Also if Xtravagant doesn't win or go pretty close they may as well send him home. Chautauqua like or bust IMO if they have Cox Plate goals.

 

[Main Man]

Happy that Omei is running despite the Waller spin, won't be winning.

Also if Xtravagant doesn't win or go pretty close they may as well send him home. Chautauqua like or bust IMO if they have Cox Plate goals.

If he puts in a Chautauqua like performance than we could have legit threat to Winx, however I wouldn't be expecting it as much as I would like to see it.

I'm thinking if he wins or goes close but is strong through the line (thats what I want to see both visually and on the clock) then he is on track for the 1400/1600M Spring targets.

As for Omei, she is the threat to Astern for mine but think he will beat her, the fact that he has drawn out will mean a better price but I think she is the one who has drawn poorly on the inside, I personally hate get back horses drawing inside, Astern could be off and gone whilst she is still looking for runs.

The magic man was getting them boxed in 5 horse fields at the Championships last year, 0 wins from his last 28 rides in Sydney with 17 of them coming on horses with an SP of under $10.

 

[Richoman Tigers]

race before the NRM:

http://www.nzracing.co.nz/RaceInfo/44583/7/Race-Detail.aspx

NRM:

http://www.nzracing.co.nz/RaceInfo/44583/8/Race-Detail.aspx

this is the race immediately after his NRM win

http://www.nzracing.co.nz/RaceInfo/44583/9/Race-Detail.aspx

note, emily monk would have run second in the group 1 on times, she has transferrable form over further which would slot in about g3 level. the winner of the last was back at the provincials 2 starts later and looks like it really got assisted by the bias.

like i said i'm going to pot the NRM. where beating volk stok n barrel by 9 with a bias assist over 1400 is probably not transferrable to beating one of our better sprinters first up over 1200 down the straight, on a likely wet track where UTL and Sooboog both have runs under their belt. his guineas is great, he's my second favourite for the CP but just at 1200 i can't have him at the 3.50-3.70 and he won't start under 5's.

If X can't beat sooboog then they may as well retire it. Absolute camel!!!

 

[Gavin Excell]

Counterattack will be in Sydney I believe.

If he punctures badly after taking a sit (which is the plan this time) then its forget about it for this campaign, might as well pack the bags and go home.

The Australian Guineas is a complete forget job from my point of view, went too fast at the end of a long campaign and was entitled to puncture badly. He was still clearly the best of the on pace horses in the race.

Certainly the most interesting runner at Flemington on Saturday in what is an underwhelming set of nominations I must say.

You may well be correct re Counterattack but its been entered both states.

Back on X what price you prepared to take?

 

[Main Man]

You may well be correct re Counterattack but its been entered both states.

Back on X what price you prepared to take?

Don't know regarding X until final field is out, to be honest not that keen on the race at this stage.

I'm more hoping to see him put in a big performance than bet up on him, if he runs well here I will likely be on him fore the rest of the Spring until he runs into Winx.

 

[iluvparis]

don't want to hang my hat on official times but they say first 800 in the G1, 47.51, bm75, 47.62.

the races seem very comparable on raw times to me. with the bm75 winner by eyeballing it from the 6, running faster home than the g1 Vespa. just saying the margins are as deceptive as Hartnells and as that is the case over 1400 to me he has 1 standout performance over 1600 as a spring 3yo. which also being pentire/Zabeel says this is going to be well short of his best trip and first up he shouldn't be beating g1 competitive horse like UTL at basically WFA between the two.

On weights he has 2 standout performances better than anything UTL has ever got near and gets weight from him - generally a pretty profitable formula. Plus I know which of the two is likely to be more unexposed.

 

[iluvparis]

Would have been keen Omei Sword but those filly stats I posted earlier are pretty damning. Happy to wait until she gets back to her own sex.

Think Astern is the best of the colts and as MM said wider draw might just mean a better price.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Astern best chance, im suddenly on the Yankee Rose bandwagon at the price. prices look pretty sound all round, Omei and DP unders but both have a stack of scope so i won't criticise any price given in this race.

dirty Star Turn isn't going around.

PS: i love Xtravagant but he's not a $3.50 chance over 1200 first up on a wet track vs a horse that beat the incumbent cox plate second fave (IMO) 2 starts back, in UTL's distance range, down the straight which only 1 horse is proven good over, giving 4.5kg to the rest of the field and only a WFA weight difference to UTL.

I would be pretty excited with a 1 length defeat long term for X. theres some genuine untapped ability in this race outside UTL, horses like Kinglike have form lines through g1 wfa winners in English. not bagging the horse but the reason i bring up the NRM is purely a distance based conversation, as a spring 3yo to have his peak performance in his lone start in NZ dry over 1600 by pentire out of zabeel to me scream 10f required. still think he's very capable of the short trips (as his NRM states, however not dominant as margins suggest) but as a 4yo we're looking further than this. it's a simple horses he's placed against with a fitness and distance edge. like i said, if he wins this he deserves to trade at single figures in the CP.

 

[Main Man]

I actually didn't mind Xs last win at 1200M, no idea what he beat, don't have any figures for it but like the way he settled and put the race away quickly off the bend.

I tend to agree that it's hard to come into him at the price given he is aiming at the CP, has been at his best over longer in the past and is racing genuine sprinters here, but as I said don't really want to back anything else to beat him.

If he does win this then good luck getting a price in the RC/Toorak if that's the path he takes.

I hope he blows them away but if he is strong through the line he will get a pass from me.

 

[Main Man]

In regards to Yankee Rose, had a big opinion of her as a 2yo but I have to risk her here given all the negative noises surrounding her this time in and the fact that she is going to have to beat some
3yos who have improved a reasonable margin from their 2yo performances.

I had her ahead of both at 2 but have to think it's unlikely she can beat both Astern and Omei Sword home if they run to the level they have this time in, if she does she is a freak.

I'm very confident in Astern to be honest, there was always the boom on him, always trialed and moved like a good horse and finally put a performance on the board to justify it, if he improves at all, forget about it he just wins, even he is runs to the same level he did first up he is very likely to win it.

At this stage that was a one off so always the risk he cannot repeat the performance but he really caught my eye in the yard first up and given the opinion they have always had I tend to think he will go on with it, also appears a good time to be backing the stable as he has them going well, Hartnell, Huraki and Astern himself all good winners in recent weeks.

 

[Main Man]

According to Autridge he is happy if X runs top 5 on Sat.

Unless it is an unlucky/slashing top 5 run then I'd personally be disappointed.

 

[Whowants2know]

I never post trial form, but thought people here might like to watch this trial.

Here's a simple question for you, punters.

Is this Kempsey trial win by Class 1 galloper Direct Response (last in the image below) the best trial performance you have ever seen?

Click the picture to watch the trial



A bit of background on the galloper in question. Direct Response is a six-year-old mare with the rather ordinary record of one win, two placings from 25-starts; that win coming at the mare's second ever start at Albury back in September 2013.

That's right punters, almost three years exactly since she has won a race.

At the mare's most recent start at Grafton on August 25 she failed to finish in a 1700m Class 1 Handicap when the stewards report shows the mare refused to jump from the gates and took no part in the event; the stewards demanded that Direct Response trial to their satisfaction before being allowed to start again.

Well, at least she ran true to form in the trial missing the start by near 40-lengths...

 

[blackspider]

What are peoples thoughts on Derryn? I thought his first up run when ridden off the speed was great.... dont think being on speed suits him (last start) and wouldnt be surprised if he runs well at odds...

 

[iluvparis]

What are peoples thoughts on Derryn? I thought his first up run when ridden off the speed was great.... dont think being on speed suits him (last start) and wouldnt be surprised if he runs well at odds...

Thought he had his chance to win last start - think the first and 3rd there will beat him home on Saturday as well as a few from the other form lines. Not really a Melbourne horses race either the Golden Rose.

 

[Main Man]

What are peoples thoughts on Derryn? I thought his first up run when ridden off the speed was great.... dont think being on speed suits him (last start) and wouldnt be surprised if he runs well at odds...

Loved his first up win but it was at 1000M and there is always a qiestion mark on young horses repeating a performance as they get up in distance, not that he went poorly but was beaten fair and square for mine.

Will be better suited ridden back but not sure he can turn the tables on DP and or beat a few of the more fancied runners.

Just looking at his SP profile his first two starts also suggests to me that the win at Caulfield whilst not completely unexpected was a bit of a pleasant surprise.

 

[Main Man]

X drawn well in barrier 7, I reckon there are 4 genuine threats in the race, UTL, SAL, Durendal and Kinglike, however I would be disappointed if he doesn't beat most of them home.

 

[rideclutch]

According to Autridge he is happy if X runs top 5 on Sat.

Unless it is an unlucky/slashing top 5 run then I'd personally be disappointed.

I've gone from wanting to back him to wait and see.

If he was targeting a mile race as his GF I'd go chips in - but Cox Plate goal and trainer saying 'top 5 finish' I wonder if they're gonna be too sharp for him, especially if they just crawl along and sprint home like they can do down the straight.

 

[OhhhhhCyril]

Looks like Lankin Rupee is back, targeting a first up 1000 dash at Caulfield on the 15th October. First run for over a year yeah? Last time I remember LR flopped as a short $1.50 pop on Guineas day last year. Wonder if the horse can re capture it's best form.

I may be mistaken, but generally don't the better horses go to the Schillaci, then the sprint on Cox plate day, into the Darly? And the lesser 2nd grade horses contest this race? First up easy kill perhaps ?

 

[rideclutch]

The Sandown track is complete rubbish, just bulldoze the joint.

 

[FallingLiefs]

I actually didn't mind Xs last win at 1200M, no idea what he beat, don't have any figures for it but like the way he settled and put the race away quickly off the bend.

official times, and what i hand timed (because i didn't believe it) says race 1 was slower to the 600 and faster overall in a boxed finish. was an older mare who's been unplaced since.

with star turn out the golden rose is banking on hope of improvement for most contenders. not sure i will have a bet, Astern should be favourite and $4 is probably a bit of value but I think there's 5 horses there that could take the title of dominant 3yo because it's a closely bunched crop. the fact Yankee Rose is still competitive albeit behind the top 4-5 on her Slipper is concerning if i were to have a bet. what i'm not concerned with is her being a bad worker, lots of quality horses and some stars are very lazy, especially by themselves without gear and she has a track record of this too. you're currently getting half a price to find out i think it's a sound calculated risk although will wait for SP.

 

[Main Man]

official times, and what i hand timed (because i didn't believe it) says race 1 was slower to the 600 and faster overall in a boxed finish. was an older mare who's been unplaced since.

with star turn out the golden rose is banking on hope of improvement for most contenders. not sure i will have a bet, Astern should be favourite and $4 is probably a bit of value but I think there's 5 horses there that could take the title of dominant 3yo because it's a closely bunched crop. the fact Yankee Rose is still competitive albeit behind the top 4-5 on her Slipper is concerning if i were to have a bet. what i'm not concerned with is her being a bad worker, lots of quality horses and some stars are very lazy, especially by themselves without gear and she has a track record of this too. you're currently getting half a price to find out i think it's a sound calculated risk although will wait for SP.

Personally there is no way I could get an accurate assessment from hand timing off a screen, if you're a fraction early or late on your markers its equates to a big difference in the overall scheme of things, I would get a different times for the same race every time I tried.

I had a look into last night and apparently the publicized times are all over the shop in NZ, Ellersie and Riccaton are the only ones you can trust, some of them can be up to 1 second out.

I looked at the times they posted for that day and they look a complete mess to be honest, that race with the bunched finished had a certain time for the winner and a time nearly 1 sec slower for the 2nd horse even though it was less than a length in it, same in the Xtravagant race, 3 length margin yet the 2nd horses time was again 1 sec slower.

I find it hard to believe that he keeps putting big gaps in fields but finishes in comparably slow times to some races of bunched finishes, bit like Tsaritsa running 2 secs faster than the Stradbroke. I wouldn't be reading too much into any of them.

 

[kingston67]

Why did Sandown get abandoned ?

 

[Main Man]

I've gone from wanting to back him to wait and see.

If he was targeting a mile race as his GF I'd go chips in - but Cox Plate goal and trainer saying 'top 5 finish' I wonder if they're gonna be too sharp for him, especially if they just crawl along and sprint home like they can do down the straight.

I make a habit of ignoring anything the trainers say unless its Mick Price.

Weir was putting the slows on BHB two weeks ago.

I'm warming to him a bit, UTL is a good horse but he has never been a gun sprinter, his best runs have come when down in the weights off faster tempos, Rupert Clarke, Stradbroke, Goodwood, etc, different scenario here with likely moderate speed and carrying top weight.

He was good first up but his numbers were nothing amazing, Redzel was falling in a hole the last 50M in particular which gave the impression he was savaging the lines but UTL last 200M sectional and overall time was nothing special.

Then we have some up and comers like SAL & Kinglike, talented 3yos who are yet to do anything near what X has done whether it be in this distance range or not, Kinglike has 1 or 2 good performances to his name but some very ordinary ones also, same can be said for SAL.

Dunderal, good off season horse but is he good enough to beat these, I don't know.

Getting out sprinted was never the issue with X for mine, more concerned about getting into a speed battle early in a fast run race then puncturing late, if you watch all of his races he puts a gap in them quickly (even the Aus Gunieas to an extent) when needed, if he is camped behind them here off a moderate speed, traveling well he could put a winning margin on them between the 4 & the 2.

I'm still far from convinced on betting in the race but I'm liking him more as the week goes on.

 

[TBellicious]

Crappy makybe diva field really...