September Daily Punt - Spring is in the air

[iluvparis]

TS out. Race has become another barrier trial for Winx

Agree with Liefs sentiments earlier - ATB got to be the biggest joke of a syndicator going around - you'd be mad to join them.

Edit - injured in float apparently so probably not their fault - they still burn money though

 

[iluvparis]

Hopefully Winx gets a proper race when she comes to Caulfield, at least one with some genuine pace in it,she goes around against 5 horses tomorrow and as good as she is does she want to go into a Cox Plate on the back of 3 barrier trials against limited opposition?

If I was Waller I would be putting a bunny in these races instead of his plodding stayers.

It won't matter - good horses are good horses - suggesting you need some sort of tough hit out before hand is a myth. She'd win it first up if Waller wanted to set her that way.

Also don't see what non-limited opposition is going to suddenly turn up in the Cox Plate - don't think Waller would be losing too much sleep over Awesome Rock

 

[Main Man]

You have 3 races where they walk and sprint up the last 600M which is more or less a soft barrier trial then go into a fast run 2000M race, I don't care how good you are it is not an ideal preparation.

Why doesn't Waller put something in with a bit of speed to at least make it a genuinely run race?

That was my knock on AJ when she was coming into her CP, she had looked brilliant winning her lead ups but they had all been sit sprints.

Probably doesn't worry her too much but if she was mine I would want her to have at least a moderate hit out before going in.

Whats this French horse like?

 

[FallingLiefs]

You have 3 races where they walk and sprint up the last 600M which is more or less a soft barrier trial then go into a fast run 2000M race, I don't care how good you are it is not an ideal preparation.

Why doesn't Waller put something in with a bit of speed to at least make it a genuinely run race?

That was my knock on AJ when she was coming into her CP, she had looked brilliant winning her lead ups but they had all been sit sprints.

Probably doesn't worry her too much but if she was mine I would want her to have at least a moderate hit out before going in.

Whats this French horse like?

late blooming miler. not one of the big guns but an ok horse who looks to be hitting a consistent stretch. i'd probably have had highland reel slightly ahead at this stage last year. just because of fields their up against.

 

[bombers21]

He's not going to win tomorrow but Hauraki was good last start. Could make things interesting for a little bit

 

[iluvparis]

You have 3 races where they walk and sprint up the last 600M which is more or less a soft barrier trial then go into a fast run 2000M race, I don't care how good you are it is not an ideal preparation.

Why doesn't Waller put something in with a bit of speed to at least make it a genuinely run race?

How long have you been training horses? How do you know the race will be run at a fast pace on Cox Plate Day?

Sorry mate - but I'll trust Waller to know what he is doing over yourself. If anything it will mean she is primed for the day and could absolutely explode with a huge performance.

Aidan's come over here having not raced for 6 weeks plus and seem competitive.

 

[iluvparis]

He's not going to win tomorrow but Hauraki was good last start. Could make things interesting for a little bit

Yes for about 1000m

 

[iluvparis]

late blooming miler. not one of the big guns but an ok horse who looks to be hitting a consistent stretch. i'd probably have had highland reel slightly ahead at this stage last year. just because of fields their up against.

Highland Reel of last year 1.5-2 lengths ahead on official ratings. Beats up the second tier in France but has multiple failures on the biggest stage - often terribly. Beaten by Ribchester already this year suggests he won't be troubling Winx. Fair shout for second though given the race won't have much depth.

 

[iluvparis]

It's funny how different jurisdictions view things differently - you would never see Aidan gassing one of his own horses to give it a 'tough hit out' ahead of its seasons number 1 goal. If anything he takes them back to Ireland for an easy kill.

 

[Main Man]

Not sure what to make of Tom Melbourne tomorrow, I was initially disappointed with him first up but was a bit of strange race, they went reasonably fast early which spread the field but then pulled the pace back before sprinting home late, his late splits were actually pretty good, Great Esteem was just the fitter horse in career best form.

Boss back on who seems to get him going well is a big plus, 2000M suits and is likely to get the perfect run in transit.

I personally didn't expect him to be so short though.

Messy race to be honest, I've got questions on the Feehan form, less forgiving of those who were 2nd up in that and Real Love had the dream run in transit, Jameka, Set Square and co seem a fairly even bunch.

Typical of the Caulfield card tomorrow, I'm unlikely to have a bet in any race.

 

[Main Man]

It's funny how different jurisdictions view things differently - you would never see Aidan gassing one of his own horses to give it a 'tough hit out' ahead of its seasons number 1 goal. If anything he takes them back to Ireland for an easy kill.

I'm not talking about gassing her, just presenting her with something that mildly resembles the main goal.

 

[iluvparis]

Given he was virtual Melbourne/Caulfield Cup fave after his Albury Cup win (lol) its going to take a few bad performances until he goes around a decent price.

 

[Main Man]

Lovely jump out from the Grey Beast this morning, won the jump out under a strangle hold, towed Dunn up the straight.

 

[iluvparis]

I'm not talking about gassing her, just presenting her with something that mildly resembles the main goal.

Yes but why? If you have the best horse in the race why would you tax her any more than needed? Do you have any training experience are you just speculating

 

[RWnBluey]

Lovely jump out from the Grey Beast this morning, won the jump out under a strangle hold, towed Dunn up the straight.

Wonder if Berry gets the ride in Melb this prep or sticking with Dunn.

 

[FallingLiefs]

i think it's a moot point anyway. Great Esteem will lead and ensure some sort of reasonable tempo unless the other 4 jockeys let it go out in front.

naturalism market looks fine. i'd be laying Jameka if i had to right now but that's the only horse i have a differing opinion on to the prices in the race.

 

[Main Man]

i think it's a moot point anyway. Great Esteem will lead and ensure some sort of reasonable tempo unless the other 4 jockeys let it go out in front.

naturalism market looks fine. i'd be laying Jameka if i had to right now but that's the only horse i have a differing opinion on to the prices in the race.

Good point on Great Esteem, assumed he would be staying in Melbourne.

 

[Main Man]

Wonder if Berry gets the ride in Melb this prep or sticking with Dunn.

I personally don't think it matters but would assume Dunn in Melbourne.

 

[iluvparis]

i think it's a moot point anyway. Great Esteem will lead and ensure some sort of reasonable tempo unless the other 4 jockeys let it go out in front.

naturalism market looks fine. i'd be laying Jameka if i had to right now but that's the only horse i have a differing opinion on to the prices in the race.

Just saw how short Tom Melbourne is now - I'd be laying him and backing Real Love at current price.

Can't believe Liefs is dropping off EK at the juicy double figure odds - looks a certainty now!

 

[Main Man]

Yes but why? If you have the best horse in the race why would you tax her any more than needed? Do you have any training experience are you just speculating

God you are a dribbler, speculating, purely stating an opinion.

Like any athlete or sporting team, would want some form of competitive hit out prior to the main goal.

I guess if you disagree you are just speculating also?

 

[iluvparis]

God you are a dribbler, speculating, purely stating an opinion.

Like any athlete or sporting team, would want some form of competitive hit out prior to the main goal.

I guess if you disagree you are just speculating also?

That is true - but I'm always happy to make a call purely on speculation

But I'm yet to here a valid argument from you why Winx needs a solid hit out before the Cox Plate - have you got any training experience to suggest this is necessary? The only reason would be that you think Waller can't train her properly unless she is hard and race fit - there is no evidence to suggest this. In other jurisdictions trainers wouldn't even DREAM of giving their horse a tough run ahead of their big race - they would take the easy kill any day of the week. What is the basis for this thought?

The last thing on my mind when they jump at the Valley would be - gee - Winx has had a bit soft this prep - I wonder if she is up to it. When was Black Caviar ever put under pressure? She seemed to go all right on the big days despite this.

It just seems to be a complete random thought with no valid reason to back it up.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Good point on Great Esteem, assumed he would be staying in Melbourne.

as did i. great call by Webb though. i think it's a genuine chance to run second.

Just saw how short Tom Melbourne is now - I'd be laying him and backing Real Love at current price.

Can't believe Liefs is dropping off EK at the juicy double figure odds - looks a certainty now!

it's good runs are getting further and further away in its formline. i normally allow for 1 maybe 2 forgives but now has 3 in it's last 5. i also prefer it ridden cold. not giving up but will watch it just one more time.

 

[Main Man]

That is true - but I'm always happy to make a call purely on speculation

But I'm yet to here a valid argument from you why Winx needs a solid hit out before the Cox Plate - have you got any training experience to suggest this is necessary? The only reason would be that you think Waller can't train her properly unless she is hard and race fit - there is no evidence to suggest this. In other jurisdictions trainers wouldn't even DREAM of giving their horse a tough run ahead of their big race - they would take the easy kill any day of the week. What is the basis for this thought?

The last thing on my mind when they jump at the Valley would be - gee - Winx has had a bit soft this prep - I wonder if she is up to it. When was Black Caviar ever put under pressure? She seemed to go all right on the big days despite this.

It just seems to be a complete random thought with no valid reason to back it up.

I'm not a trainer, just my opinion, I would prefer a horse to have had a reasonable hit out coming into the main goal as opposed to having 3 barrier trials going into a 2040M race that is likely to present a completely different race shape.

Bit like a football player, can do million laps of the oval in the preseason but come that first game you're calling for the iron lung within 5 minute.

As I said it probably doesn't worry her but a solid hit out in the Caulfield Stakes would have her cherry ripe going into the Cox, bit like the George Ryder before the Doncaster in the Autumn.

 

[Lockyer24]

Did my form last night. Initial thoughts...(can change in the day if the track shits me)

Caulfield
1. Was keen to back Saint Velorem and Shillelagh to knock off Battlecamp. Now the fave is out, I think I'll just ride with SV.
2. I'll look harder at this race tomorrow but I am very keen on Barthelona now and going forward too.
3. First spread bet of the day here think can get a winning result backing all of Sinc Discreet, Perf Safe, Exocet and Vainglorious with a sliding wager.
4. Another spread race for me but Miss Soft hands definitely going in at that value. I bet against the fave each start.
5. Kaching, Rocketeer and Harlow Gold spread...winner should come from these and good ones to follow too.
6. Hard race for me to get a grip of, only one at this stage I can look at is Miss Promiscuity
7. Keen on Keen Array. But small savers on Hucklebuck and Dan Zephyr who is very underrated.
8. Predicting swoopers haven by the time the main race arrives, the Maher duo of Set Sq and Janeka appeal to me
9. Hes Our Rokkii. Easy.
10. Not really interested . Tarquin maybe.

Could be a tough day but bit of value about.

 

[Main Man]

as did i. great call by Webb though. i think it's a genuine chance to run second.



it's good runs are getting further and further away in its formline. i normally allow for 1 maybe 2 forgives but now has 3 in it's last 5. i also prefer it ridden cold. not giving up but will watch it just one more time.

I actually thought his last run was okay, a good starting point to a campaign, not many others here are flying so has to be a big chance with any improvement, as I said though I think he is very short.

Boss is the big plus, seems to be able to get him to settle in his runs, his best form has been when he is on.