September Daily Punt - Spring is in the air

[iluvparis]

I'm not a trainer, just my opinion, I would prefer a horse to have had a reasonable hit out coming into the main goal as opposed to having 3 barrier trials going into a 2040M race that is likely to present a completely different race shape.

Bit like a football player, can do million laps of the oval in the preseason but come that first game you're calling for the iron lung within 5 minute.

As I said it probably doesn't worry her but a solid hit out in the Caulfield Stakes would have her cherry ripe going into the Cox, bit like the George Ryder before the Doncaster in the Autumn.

Lucky horses aren't football players then

This is IMHO a ridiculous theory that is discredited by European training practices. Good luck with it but in no way will it get you a price for her on Cox Plate Day. She is more likely to be cherry ripe the less work she has to do in winning her next two starts and being ready to explode with everything she has at the Valley.

 

[iluvparis]

From memory last year there was some chat around that she might not have enough miles in her legs with only 3 starts heading into the CP - that went well

 

[FallingLiefs]

I actually thought his last run was okay, a good starting point to a campaign, not many others here are flying so has to be a big chance with any improvement, as I said though I think he is very short.

Boss is the big plus, seems to be able to get him to settle in his runs, his best form has been when he is on.

that was re: Excess Knowledge. i'm happy enough with Tom Melbourne. not one i have a huge opinion of but a nice kickoff point last start and deserved fave with the weight and map.

 

[Main Man]

Lucky horses aren't football players then

This is IMHO a ridiculous theory that is discredited by European training practices. Good luck with it but in no way will it get you a price for her on Cox Plate Day. She is more likely to be cherry ripe the less work she has to do in winning her next two starts and being ready to explode with everything she has at the Valley.

I'm not concerned about getting a price with her, she will be in the red on the day and I'll be on her regardless but going from 3 barrier trials into one of the fastest run races in Australia over 2000M is not an ideal scenario, that in my opinion is the only thing that could bring her undone.

 

[HeathySure]

I'm not concerned about getting a price with her, she will be in the red on the day and I'll be on her regardless but going from 3 barrier trials into one of the fastest run races in Australia over 2000M is not an ideal scenario, that in my opinion is the only thing that could bring her undone.

dont worry about whats going to happen in 6 weeks. who knows how the races are going to be run in the leadup, just trust the trainer. Waller knows what he is doing so its moot even worrying about it now

 

[HeathySure]

Lucky horses aren't football players then

This is IMHO a ridiculous theory that is discredited by European training practices. Good luck with it but in no way will it get you a price for her on Cox Plate Day. She is more likely to be cherry ripe the less work she has to do in winning her next two starts and being ready to explode with everything she has at the Valley.

i am no expert on European races at all, but they do tend to run slow times for most distances, is this because of the tracks or the pace of races? I know they allow pacemakers for distance races, or is that all races?

 

[iluvparis]

I'm not concerned about getting a price with her, she will be in the red on the day and I'll be on her regardless but going from 3 barrier trials into one of the fastest run races in Australia over 2000M is not an ideal scenario, that in my opinion is the only thing that could bring her undone.

Why is it not an ideal scenario? Do you actually think Australia's best trainer can't get his best horse fit for the best race in the country because she's won THREE lead up races a bit easily? But the Europeans can ship down here without racing for 6 weeks and run to their best? It's the same fricking breed!

Also - how do you know it's going to be a fast run race? Who was going to take it out fast? A guarantee that the Cox Plate will be fast run is an equally a big a myth as the crackpot theory you are pedalling. There have been plenty of sit and sprint jobs down the years.

 

[iluvparis]

i am no expert on European races at all, but they do tend to run slow times for most distances, is this because of the tracks or the pace of races? I know they allow pacemakers for distance races, or is that all races?

You can have a pacemaker in any race you want - Frankel regularly had pacemakers for mile races. They generally run on softer ground and their tracks aren't dead flat like ours which probably goes a long way to explaining it but to be fair I've never really studied their times - nor care too.

 

[Main Man]

Why is it not an ideal scenario? Do you actually think Australia's best trainer can't get his best horse fit for the best race in the country because she's won THREE lead up races a bit easily? But the Europeans can ship down here without racing for 6 weeks and run to their best? It's the same fricking breed!

Also - how do you know it's going to be a fast run race? Who was going to take it out fast? A guarantee that the Cox Plate will be fast run is an equally a big a myth as the crackpot theory you are pedalling. There have been plenty of sit and sprint jobs down the years.

So which Cox Plates have been sit sprints in the last 10 years?

It is 100% certain it will be run at a faster pace than what she faced first up and likely to face tomorrow.

 

[iluvparis]

So which Cox Plates have been sit sprints in the last 10 years?

It is 100% certain it will be run at a faster pace than what she faced first up and likely to face tomorrow.

So You Think's second was a walk as was Maldivian's. Shamus Award and Pinker Pinkers' were hardly lightning either (explains the result)

In any case - even if its run fast are you seriously suggesting she will underperform because she hasn't raced in a fast run race this prep? Laughable. If anything given her racing style compared to the rest of the WFA horses around she will BENEFIT if its fast run. Her best chance of getting beat is a slow walkathon where she gets trapped in on the rail.

I'm sorry but this is one of the most laughable theories I've heard in a while.

 

[HeathySure]

You can have a pacemaker in any race you want - Frankel regularly had pacemakers for mile races. They generally run on softer ground and their tracks aren't dead flat like ours which probably goes a long way to explaining it but to be fair I've never really studied their times - nor care too.

reason i ask is because the with the new training methods, races are slower run than they used to be, and they tend to be won by the horse who can sprint faster over the last 400 meters. Ive always maintained if the pace of the race is fast you can totally dismiss all those horses out wide and the horses who have a quick sprint off a slow pace and you get less winning chances. i just dont get why all the trainers and jockeys follow each other instead of thinking outside the square and giving themselves a better chance to win.

 

[iluvparis]

reason i ask is because the with the new training methods, races are slower run than they used to be, and they tend to be won by the horse who can sprint faster over the last 400 meters. Ive always maintained if the pace of the race is fast you can totally dismiss all those horses out wide and the horses who have a quick sprint off a slow pace and you get less winning chances. i just dont get why all the trainers and jockeys follow each other instead of thinking outside the square and giving themselves a better chance to win.

I'd say races are probably slower these days as less drugs are used and they water the tracks any time it looks like even close to being firm.

 

[FallingLiefs]

i am no expert on European races at all, but they do tend to run slow times for most distances, is this because of the tracks or the pace of races? I know they allow pacemakers for distance races, or is that all races?

surface and tracks. they also have a lot more undulations than australia. generally depends what the grass is growing on. for instance HK has times wayyy faster than ours. ours is as slow as to them as UK is to us. a 3yo 3 start maiden broke 56s over 1000 at northam yesterday for instance.

as a rule euro's are somewhat more genuinely run races which can positively and also negatively affect their times if they push into over exertion.

 

[HeathySure]

I'd say races are probably slower these days as less drugs are used and they water the tracks any time it looks like even close to being firm.

i dont think its teh watering, i am talking about general pace which can be fast on wet tracks too. I just think jockeys and trainers are overdoing it with "getting the horses into a rythmn". I got an idea.. get all the other horses off a rhythm and see if you get a better chance or not. OF course that takes a certain type of horse, but it might be in the training too

 

[HeathySure]

surface and tracks. they also have a lot more undulations than australia. generally depends what the grass is growing on. for instance HK has times wayyy faster than ours. ours is as slow as to them as UK is to us. a 3yo 3 start maiden broke 56s over 1000 at northam yesterday for instance.

as a rule euro's are somewhat more genuinely run races which can positively and also negatively affect their times if they push into over exertion.

Hong Kong has only 2 tracks and they also have a better class of horse cos they take all our good geldings!!

 

[iluvparis]

i dont think its teh watering, i am talking about general pace which can be fast on wet tracks too. I just think jockeys and trainers are overdoing it with "getting the horses into a rythmn". I got an idea.. get all the other horses off a rhythm and see if you get a better chance or not. OF course that takes a certain type of horse, but it might be in the training too

It only takes the introduction of pacemakers which would benefit racing in this country immensely.

 

[iluvparis]

Hong Kong has only 2 tracks and they also have a better class of horse cos they take all our good geldings!!

Not better than Europe though - and on times you'd think they were a different breed!

How do the yanks go on times on grass?

 

[Main Man]

So You Think's second was a walk as was Maldivian's. Shamus Award and Pinker Pinkers' were hardly lightning either (explains the result)

In any case - even if its run fast are you seriously suggesting she will underperform because she hasn't raced in a fast run race this prep? Laughable. If anything given her racing style compared to the rest of the WFA horses around she will BENEFIT if its fast run. Her best chance of getting beat is a slow walkathon where she gets trapped in on the rail.

I'm sorry but this is one of the most laughable theories I've heard in a while.

A walk, you have no idea about times, sectionals, race shape, zero, you guess when it comes to this stuff, the Cox Plates you have mentioned weren't brutal but they were genuinely run in comparison to most WFA races in Australia, particularly in Sydney.

She would be unbeatable in a sit sprint, she wouldn't get buried anywhere in the field as Bowman would take her straight to the front or the 1-1 if there was going to be no pace in the race and no horse in Australia can sprint with her, so that comment of yours is laughable.

The only way she could be beaten is if they go fast and she gets gassed after soft lead ups.

You can disagree if you want but your opinion means very little to me.

 

[iluvparis]

What if she draws inside with 50/1 horses looking to lead outside her - how does she get to the lead or 1-1? What if those horses drop back in her face at the 600m?

The only way she can get beaten is if they go slow.

Would like to know the horse out there looking for a truly run 2000m race more than Winx.

As I said - laughable speculation - the theory is truly insane. You are basically saying you have more idea the horse than Australia's best trainer but that's unsurprising from a man with a borderline God complex.

 

[HeathySure]

It only takes the introduction of pacemakers which would benefit racing in this country immensely.

im not really comfortable with this.. there is too much scope for shenanigans

 

[iluvparis]

I know MM struggles with facts at times but I'd like to hear how So You Think's 2nd Cox Plate running 2:07.45 was 'genuinely run'

 

[HeathySure]

Not better than Europe though - and on times you'd think they were a different breed!

How do the yanks go on times on grass?

the english sprinters are not teh best in hong kong that i noticed? but not fully paying attention to them.
yank racing is ughh
the fact that the triple crown races are run on dirt discredit all American racing for me. ITs pretty much dead there too except in a few states

 

[Main Man]

I know MM struggles with facts at times but I'd like to hear how So You Think's 2nd Cox Plate running 2:07.45 was 'genuinely run'

As I said you have zero idea when it comes to times.

 

[FallingLiefs]

Hong Kong has only 2 tracks and they also have a better class of horse cos they take all our good geldings!!

not really. they probably have better middle range depth but at the top we probably still have them covered. most racing jurisdictions are pretty good on tempo's these days the UK have a couple more true staying tests at the top level where the whole field hits the wall well out but overall the slow times are simply the track they're racing on.

 

[iluvparis]

As I said you have zero idea when it comes to times.

That's why I asked you to explain it to me