Racing September Daily Punt Thread - Is Zaaki The New Winx?

[iluvparis]

Quite keen on the features today at Dubbo

Happy to take on Jailbreak in the sprint doesnt exactly fly first up and has a big weight happy to play Dubai Tycoon who won the prelude sprint and something on Messy Miss who is undefeated at the track beating a horse ive had some time for called Miss Kojiki.

In the Cup im very keen on Ready to Humble that Macchina Volante form is the grouse stuff for a race like this. From The Bush has to be a big query on a firm deck.

From the Bush was absolutely massive in the Narromine Cup and a complete moral beaten - I think its unexposed enough on good tracks for me to give it the benefit of the doubt here.

 

[iluvparis]

Another huge night of racing in Europe tonight with the Irish St Leger and the Arc trials on.

The St Leger is legitimately one of the worst I have ever seen with barely a shed of quality in it which is why a European journeyman like Twilight Payment has come up the fave. I have gone looking for something with at least a hint of upside so will have something small on EMPEROR OF THE SUN who I hope can improve back on firmer ground here. He smashed two time defending champ Search For A Song who is second fave here back in May and beat Twilight Payment in the Gold Cup on firm ground. From a Melbourne Cup perspective Sonnyboyliston and Master Of Reality are also engaged.

The undercard has no less than 3 more G1's. The Flying Five sees WINTER POWER try and reproduce her dominant win in the Nunthorpe. The Moyglare over 7f for the 2yo fillies looks very poor. Pretty much the entire field has some sort of formline through AGARTHA so given she has won her last two comfortably I am happy to stick with her. In contrast, the National which is normally one of the best 2yo races in Europe sees boom juvenile POINT LONSDALE try to remain unbeaten having won 3 of his last 4 starts by 3L+ this year. LOVE also drops way back in class to a G2 mares race - if she cant win this she is completely gone - the current black figures on offer may be a gift.

The highlight of the Arc trials at Longchamp is SNOWFALL who goes around at genuine Winx-like odds in the Prix Vermaille. The Prix Niel for the 3yo colts sees a small field of six - happy to see if the red hot Epsom Derby fave BOLSHOI BALLET can live up to some of that hype having only raced in the US since. The Prix Foy for the older hosres contains the Japanese DEEP BOND as they look to end their Arc curse. I am happy to have something on him to beat the hot pot Skaletti who just trawl around Europe beating up B and C graders

 

[iluvparis]

J allen and short priced faves - name an easier watch....I'll wait

 

[54Dogs]

J allen and short priced faves - name an easier watch....I'll wait

His Ayrton work a beauty to behold

 

[Slipps]

J allen and short priced faves - name an easier watch....I'll wait

Heart in mouth stuff

 

[iluvparis]

 

[HeavyPop]

Interested to see Lord Thunder in the 3rd @ Sha Tin, apparently another Hayes special. 1.60 for a horse on debut, what could go wrong?

 

[Jugada]

Incentivise $4.80 in the Turnbull with SB looks good. Zaaki won't be there, Dragon won't be there, Mounga i doubt will be there, Verry Elleegant 50/50 to line up

And its gawn

 

[iluvparis]

And its gawn

Its still $4 on TAB. Hard to see it jumping any bigger than 6/4

 

[Veer Right]

Tonights Irish St Leger,

Will have a punt on Search for a Song and Twilight Payment straight out, the two horses with the best G1 form from the two strongest yards. Thanks Paris for reminding this place the race was on!

 

[Slipps]

And its gawn

Can still get 5.5 boosted on Lads for anyone who missed it

 

[Jugada]

Can still get 5.5 boosted on Lads for anyone who missed it

Brilliant bet. Take that and can save on VE if she goes there. If she doesn't will get very close to evens I'd imagine

 

[FallingLiefs]

Brilliant bet. Take that and can save on VE if she goes there. If she doesn't will get very close to evens I'd imagine

Am I merging Z and VE together or did I hear Caulfield Stakes was most likely for VE?

 

[Jugada]

Am I merging Z and VE together or did I hear Caulfield Stakes was most likely for VE?

VE was GM > Hill Stakes or Turnbull > Cox Plate last I heard. Z is Underwood > Caulfield Stakes > Cox Plate

 

[Jugada]

Not going to happen but would be close to an all timer for hype if Incentivise backed up in the CP rather than go the Cup. Would likely get Z, VE, Incentivise and Moe dominating all their respective lead ups

 

[iluvparis]

Not going to happen but would be close to an all timer for hype if Incentivise backed up in the CP rather than go the Cup. Would likely get Z, VE, Incentivise and Moe dominating all their respective lead ups

Hopefully the Valley would just chuck everything else out and let them run it as a field of 4.

 

[iluvparis]

I'm going to put up the stupidest antepost bet suggestion of the entire spring - LIGHTSABRE to win the Caulfield Guineas at $34 (TAB). I see its most likely to run in the prelude this Saturday and it can race up on the pace over the longer trips. If something happens to big Mo the rest of the 3yos are utter trash and whoever shows the most intent on the day could be good enough to lead and win.

Basically hope for another Anacheeva like result

 

[iluvparis]

If you want a really speculative bet on a longie at the Curragh tonight I'd take a look at MEASURE OF MAGIC - currently around $70 on betfair in the Flying Five.

It ran third in t he Commonwealth Cup and subsequently started very short at 9/4 in the Sapphire Stakes where it was hugely disappointing. However, that race was won by Mooniesta who started $10 there and is $10 for the race today. If Measure of Magic can find anything like his best he his mammoth odds.

 

[HeathySure]

Not going to happen but would be close to an all timer for hype if Incentivise backed up in the CP rather than go the Cup. Would likely get Z, VE, Incentivise and Moe dominating all their respective lead ups

Anemoes times and sectionals were very ordinary. He would get thrashed in a cox plate. Sticking to the 3yos is his go

 

[FallingLiefs]

Anemoes times and sectionals were very ordinary. He would get thrashed in a cox plate. Sticking to the 3yos is his go

Had a sneaky look at the 3yo times/ratings vs older class this morning with what I could. It’s an ok kick off IMO, Yes there is a faster (and higher rating) BM 88 on the day but that winners weight is significant. Also factor Anamoe carrying max at SWP. Positive was the way he did it improving to and through the line and would likely improve off interrupted prep. Now obviously he may not, he ran similar at 2 and never went a huge rating. I think times will come in a touch weaker than Paulele early in season but class factors may drag it up a bit to around that mark. He’s by far most promising 3yo given Paulele didn’t back it up.

As for CP he gets that huge weight relief at WFA not accounted for when comparing times on the day, he’d need to be a genuine 2000m horse to improve to level of Incentivise, Zaaki, VE. slightly do-able but unlikely barring a huge step up likely outside normal “natural improvement” with dist. Can’t see him starting given the stud value and Dom Beirne advising godolphin.

That said I’m just playing with numbers on horses I have no history on so will wait for the big boys weighing in on ratings this week.

 

[HeathySure]

Had a sneaky look at the 3yo times/ratings vs older class this morning with what I could. It’s an ok kick off IMO, Yes there is a faster (and higher rating) BM 88 on the day but that winners weight is significant. Also factor Anamoe carrying max at SWP. Positive was the way he did it improving to and through the line and would likely improve off interrupted prep. Now obviously he may not, he ran similar at 2 and never went a huge rating. I think times will come in a touch weaker than Paulele early in season but class factors may drag it up a bit to around that mark. He’s by far most promising 3yo given Paulele didn’t back it up.

As for CP he gets that huge weight relief at WFA not accounted for when comparing times on the day, he’d need to be a genuine 2000m horse to improve to level of Incentivise, Zaaki, VE. slightly do-able but unlikely barring a huge step up likely outside normal “natural improvement” with dist. Can’t see him starting given the stud value and Dom Beirne advising godolphin.

That said I’m just playing with numbers on horses I have no history on so will wait for the big boys weighing in on ratings this week.

Thats fair but i think its a very ordinary 3yo crop so far. He might end up running top 5 but he will be miles behind Zaaki, Is Dom Beirne really advising dogolphin? their placement is horrendous

 

[FallingLiefs]

Thats fair but i think its a very ordinary 3yo crop so far. He might end up running top 5 but he will be miles behind Zaaki, Is Dom Beirne really advising dogolphin? their placement is horrendous

I think he was their loosely for a while, not sure what status is now but most of these big teams have astute punters guiding their placements.

CP is interesting as Zaaki and Incentivise have singular big runs but the former I think is unlikely to get back there as it was a big spike. Then we have the Z, VE, Inc a big group of CP worthy runs which is still miles better than most others best where they consistently get to. If he’s a genuine 2000m horse AND was slightly underdone yesterday AND he can improve then I think he can get to the mark within a length of them on the competitors normal days which is winnable.

If Z or Incent go big he can’t win AND your taking him on unknowns for improvement to get there. Genuine $20-30+ shot. Long story short, it’s reachable but unlikely. He’s the only 3yo I think could factor now but why would you try.

 

[HeathySure]

I think he was their loosely for a while, not sure what status is now but most of these big teams have astute punters guiding their placements.

CP is interesting as Zaaki and Incentivise have singular big runs but the former I think is unlikely to get back there as it was a big spike. Then we have the Z, VE, Inc a big group of CP worthy runs which is still miles better than most others best where they consistently get to. If he’s a genuine 2000m horse AND was slightly underdone yesterday AND he can improve then I think he can get to the mark within a length of them on the competitors normal days which is winnable.

If Z or Incent go big he can’t win AND your taking him on unknowns for improvement to get there. Genuine $20-30+ shot. Long story short, it’s reachable but unlikely. He’s the only 3yo I think could factor now but why would you try.

if incentivise was mine i would let the CP go and just do the CC MC double and leave teh CP to next year with a better prep for it. VE's only chance of beating Zaaki in the CP is a bog track or a dynamite pace. He has gears, she grinds.

 

[FallingLiefs]

if incentivise was mine i would let the CP go and just do the CC MC double and leave teh CP to next year with a better prep for it. VE's only chance of beating Zaaki in the CP is a bog track or a dynamite pace. He has gears, she grinds.

As a lightly raced 5yo gelding he should try the treble. His grand final is the first of the big 3, MC I’m forecasting a big weight regardless (see MC thread). If he didn’t get to the MC who cares, probs his hardest race to win now with weight and unknown of stamina.

Needs to be done more.

 

[Ah12]

Off topic here and i havent been in the game anywhere near as long as you lot but could Winx have ran in a MC? I understand it was never an option, but what are your thoughts on how she would've went.