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no
Charm Stone is the greatest living moral i have seen on a race track (as long as it doesnt get Antino'd from barrier 1) and its $6 in the Golden Rose.
September Daily Punt,where Tom Papley has a spring in his step and a quiver in his arse.
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Charm Stone is the greatest living moral i have seen on a race track (as long as it doesnt get Antino'd from barrier 1) and its $6 in the Golden Rose.
iluvparis
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Going looking for melbourne form and fillies in the Golden Rose historically a great way to find a winner
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i could give 2 shits about that record. The good Sydney fillies run in the Tea Rose and Flight (and they are not that good this year). The Melbourne fillies usually are set for the 1000 Guineas but given its later this year the Golden Rose is perfect for it. Charm Stone is a moral, this and the Coolmore are the races its been set for. Take it to the bank
iluvparis
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Wouldn't you say that Charm Stone should be going for the Flight using this analysis?
Going from taking on the pox Melbourne fillies to the Sydney colts doesn't scream pile in at 6s to me. But then again neither does three quarters of a length over most of the field in the Run to the Rose.
King Colorado coming back from an ok run at G1 WFA looks a reasonable EW bet to me
King Colorado coming back from an ok run at G1 WFA looks a reasonable EW bet to me
iluvparis
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Nah KC is also poi poi - 20/1 when winning a pox TJ then did zero in that Winx which was a non race
Reeks of Golden Mile's Caulfield Guineas where Cylinder just does enough to edge it despite being no start. Libertad (forgive a horse a bad run) and Don C the speculators at odds but best way to play the race is to take exotics and leave out KC and the filly.
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The problem with that type of stat, is it doesn't reflect fairly when numerous fillies run in the same race.
Need to look at the class of the filly which runs in the race as a good guide, similar to Australian Guineas.
iluvparis
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1 from 41 suggests regardless of how many show up in any year they ain’t winning
iluvparis
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No it can’t. Far more difficult to win than run a place. Their record is appalling and charm is the lay of the race
Of course it can. There are only incremental difference between winning and getting beaten a half length. Winning probability to outcome in such a small sample size is perfectly acceptable. I dont like this horse in particular but wouldnt rule it out because of that historical stat
iluvparis
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There also an incremental difference to running third.
The pool of horses who can win a race are almost always smaller than the pool of horses that can run second. Same for third. It’s not drawing from the same distribution.
The 1/41 is all you need to look at. Seconds irrelevant. You should 100% rule it out because of this stat. It tells you that colts are better than fillies.
Exactly and if you are finishing 2nd then there is a fair chance you are in that pool capable of winning. Re run the race 1000 times and the horse who can finish 2nd also wins a large chunk of the time.
Lol no. That is not how you use stats to apply probability of winning at all
iluvparis
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Lol no you’re not. It’s much easier to run second than to win. You must be a huge fan of box trifectas with this logic.
You’re also completely overlooking the times they run third.
Here’s a test for you
Go and look at the rating it takes to win a golden rose then go and look at the rating to run second. Compare the size of the horse populations. Fillies are only in the second group
iluvparis
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Didn't realise Flash Flood form was so A grade for the spring - surely Soulcome and Floating Artist should both be close to double/triple their current prices.
Daqiansweet. Phillip Stokes loves that horse.
In the event Daqiansweet does happen to run a race tomorrow, I'd like to have some fun with it.
Steparty W
Without A Fight W
Poifect P
Daqiansweet P
@ $220
What are you really gambling with, take a sec before you bet
Steparty W
Without A Fight W
Poifect P
Daqiansweet P
@ $220
What are you really gambling with, take a sec before you bet
Spanish Sahara
Brownlow Medallist
Pretty certain Poifect is running Sunday at Flemington
iluvparis
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Fair bit of smoke around this morning that Giga is out of the Everest. Out to $8 on the fair
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I hope Williams is watching his back as Rod Douglas may do more than just strangle him
Spanish Sahara
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Running today. Favourite pulled out so they decided to race it today instead
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GIGA CAT
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