Preview Sydney v Bulldogs SCG Sunday 3:20

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I'll be surprised if Horse changes things around more than he needs to. Not his form.
Wicks for Papley
Hayward plays if fit, CoWarner if not.
Fox back for Rampe
Mills in to replace Rampe as a number not possies.
CoWarner sub if not in the 22 or Mitchell.
Maybe Heeney rotates forward more.
Alternatively, same troops but Mills plays back and Fox forward.
 
caesar88 said:
Well if you want us to drop someone who has currently kicked more goals in a season (with 5+ games still left to play) than Reid ever has, then be my guest. I just can't see Horse going for that.
Click to expand...
We can't just hang our hat on club goal tally, and compare an all out FF with no buddy to a second forward who played a heap of ruck and rarely had full seasons. As mentioned above, compare him with Mclean.

On face value other than the adelaide game Amartey rarely looks overly convincing, and his waning effort at the contest can be very obvious at times. A heavily scoring team like ours should have our FF competing for the coleman by default. His goal tally is not that impressive. My way of looking at it is with the amount of bites at the cherry Amartey gets, Reid will simply mark more of em, and he wouldn’t be short of getting to those contests if not more. And Reids kicking aint any better or worse than Amartey’s so I just can’t see how Reid doesn’t end up with more snags as a FF.
 

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zyzzbruh said:
We can't just hang our hat on club goal tally, and compare an all out FF with no buddy to a second forward who played a heap of ruck and rarely had full seasons. As mentioned above, compare him with Mclean.

On face value other than the adelaide game Amartey rarely looks overly convincing, and his waning effort at the contest can be very obvious at times. A heavily scoring team like ours should have our FF competing for the coleman by default. His goal tally is not that impressive. My way of looking at it is with the amount of bites at the cherry Amartey gets, Reid will simply mark more of em, and he wouldn’t be short of getting to those contests if not more. And Reids kicking aint any better or worse than Amartey’s so I just can’t see how Reid doesn’t end up with more snags as a FF.
Click to expand...
I don't inherently disagree with anything you've said there, but you speak a lot about circumstances.

Reid played second fiddle to Buddy, Reid also rucked, Reid got less supply than he would now, etc.

But if those are the circumstances that Reid thrived in, how do you know he'd thrive in Amartey's current circumstances? Can Reid play as that main forward, rather than as second fiddle to a superstar? Can Reid fit in the forward structure we have this year, rather than that which we had in 2022? Can Reid still impact without his role as a second ruck or does he need that to assert himself on a game?

There's a lot of unknowns there. As I've said, I'm not against him playing, but doing so would mean disrupting something that is known, which is that we have the most potent forward line in the comp.
 
'..most potent forward line in the comp' (c88)

Goals - 2024 Season (afl.com.au)
Total
Player
Toyota AFL Premiership players ranked by Goals (descending) for the 2024 Toyota AFL Premiership season.
Rank
Player
G

Charlie Curnow
KEYF
53

Jesse Hogan
KEYF
49

Ben King
KEYF
45

Harry McKay
KEYF
44

Jake Waterman
KEYF
41

Josh Treacy
KEYF
39

Jeremy Cameron
KEYF
37

Joe Daniher
KEYF
37

Kyle Langford
KEYF
37

Nick Larkey
KEYF
36

Joel Amartey
KEYF
35

Bayley Fritsch
KEYF
35

Tyson Stengle
FWD
34

Darcy Fogarty
KEYF
33

Jake Stringer
FWD
33

Jamarra Ugle-Hagan
KEYF
33

Mitch Georgiades
KEYF
30

Toby Greene
FWD
30
 
caesar88 said:
I don't inherently disagree with anything you've said there, but you speak a lot about circumstances.

Reid played second fiddle to Buddy, Reid also rucked, Reid got less supply than he would now, etc.

But if those are the circumstances that Reid thrived in, how do you know he'd thrive in Amartey's current circumstances? Can Reid play as that main forward, rather than as second fiddle to a superstar? Can Reid fit in the forward structure we have this year, rather than that which we had in 2022? Can Reid still impact without his role as a second ruck or does he need that to assert himself on a game?

There's a lot of unknowns there. As I've said, I'm not against him playing, but doing so would mean disrupting something that is known, which is that we have the most potent forward line in the comp.
Click to expand...
Yeah fair. I just don't think we'd be disrupting much without Amartey. It's not like he's tearing it apart, crashing packs etc. He's been ok, but no where near trust worthy to the point where we're like 'damn we should've played him he would've been the difference' - because really we have no idea what version of Amartey is rocking up on game day. Now if we were discussing Hamling replacing him then yeah it's probably too unknown to risk it. I just think with Reid we know that we're going to get a competent kpf performance. It's hardly a risk imo.
 
I feel the club will want to stick with the McLean/Amartey/McDonald trio for the finals because that is likely to be our long term forward partnership. And they have played together all season.

Though I think there would be benefit in resting each of them for a game to keep them fresh. Because I think our tall forwards have played every game this season.
 
Swan_Lifer said:
'..most potent forward line in the comp' (c88)

Goals - 2024 Season (afl.com.au)
Total
Player
Toyota AFL Premiership players ranked by Goals (descending) for the 2024 Toyota AFL Premiership season.
Rank
Player
G

Charlie Curnow
KEYF
53

Jesse Hogan
KEYF
49

Ben King
KEYF
45

Harry McKay
KEYF
44

Jake Waterman
KEYF
41

Josh Treacy
KEYF
39

Jeremy Cameron
KEYF
37

Joe Daniher
KEYF
37

Kyle Langford
KEYF
37

Nick Larkey
KEYF
36

Joel Amartey
KEYF
35

Bayley Fritsch
KEYF
35

Tyson Stengle
FWD
34

Darcy Fogarty
KEYF
33

Jake Stringer
FWD
33

Jamarra Ugle-Hagan
KEYF
33

Mitch Georgiades
KEYF
30

Toby Greene
FWD
30
Click to expand...
At the moment there is nothing to suggest that 9 goal haul wasn't an outlier. Say he kicked his usual 2 in that game - he'd be sitting on 27 goals at the bottom of that list. imo its not that good of a return from a FF in the best team in the comp.
 
Watching the game live, it appeared we were happy to let them move the ball out of their defence and focus on getting setup behind the ball. Seem to work OK with the Lions forced to eventually go long and we would force a stoppage. Melican, McCartin and Blakey were strong in the air with a bit of help from Grundy. I'd say Naughton, JUH and Darcy are more of a threat than Daniher, Hipwood and debutant ruck, Smith so I would like to see more pressure on Dogs transition out of defence. I think Dogs could carve us up if they get too many entries into our forward line.
 
zyzzbruh said:
At the moment there is nothing to suggest that 9 goal haul wasn't an outlier. Say he kicked his usual 2 in that game - he'd be sitting on 27 goals at the bottom of that list. imo its not that good of a return from a FF in the best team in the comp.
Click to expand...
Yes, and in addition, the Doggies' Rory Lobb has been killing it, playing down back for them.
It's going to be a torrid afternoon for our tall forwards.
 

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zyzzbruh said:
At the moment there is nothing to suggest that 9 goal haul wasn't an outlier. Say he kicked his usual 2 in that game - he'd be sitting on 27 goals at the bottom of that list. imo its not that good of a return from a FF in the best team in the comp.
Click to expand...

Why isn't it good enough? How often does he get targeted? How many other teams have three legitimate key forwards as we do PLUS a Hayward/Papley/Heeney/Wicks option up forward?
 
zyzzbruh said:
At the moment there is nothing to suggest that 9 goal haul wasn't an outlier. Say he kicked his usual 2 in that game - he'd be sitting on 27 goals at the bottom of that list. imo its not that good of a return from a FF in the best team in the comp.
Click to expand...
9 goal games are an outlier for any player.

Unfortunately for Joel, 3 goal games are also a bit of an outlier.

Our forward line isn’t outstanding, nor is it the reason we’re atop the ladder.

I suspect any of the 3 could be swapped out for Reid without any major impact.
 
Dubai Quacker said:
9 goal games are an outlier for any player.

Unfortunately for Joel, 3 goal games are also a bit of an outlier.

Our forward line isn’t outstanding, nor is it the reason we’re atop the ladder.

I suspect any of the 3 could be swapped out for Reid without any major impact.
Click to expand...
If you look at Reid's last year played (18 games, 2022) and his 2 best season hauls of 31 and 30, Amartey's already matching his tally of 3 x 3+ goal hauls in a season.

Can make the argument that in-form Reid is better at contesting marking and as an outlet pushing up to the wing, but goals isn't really something to use.
 
zyzzbruh said:
Yeah fair. I just don't think we'd be disrupting much without Amartey. It's not like he's tearing it apart, crashing packs etc. He's been ok, but no where near trust worthy to the point where we're like 'damn we should've played him he would've been the difference' - because really we have no idea what version of Amartey is rocking up on game day. Now if we were discussing Hamling replacing him then yeah it's probably too unknown to risk it. I just think with Reid we know that we're going to get a competent kpf performance. It's hardly a risk imo.
Click to expand...
I'd play Reid as CHB
 
Dubai Quacker said:
9 goal games are an outlier for any player.

Unfortunately for Joel, 3 goal games are also a bit of an outlier.

Our forward line isn’t outstanding, nor is it the reason we’re atop the ladder.

I suspect any of the 3 could be swapped out for Reid without any major impact.
Click to expand...
We have the most points for of any team in the comp, and only team averaging over 100 points this season. If ours isn't outstanding then no one's is!
 
zyzzbruh said:
Reid had to foil for Franklin don't forget, and was a second ruck for a long time. A better comparison is to compare Reid's goal output with Mclean, not Amartey. Amartey has the privilege of being a FF post buddy in a very good team.

As an all out FF, would Reid out perform Amartey? i honestly think he would. It's not like you have to be Wayne Carey level to outperform Amartey. With our service our FF should be challenging the coleman, or at least be somewhat close to the leaders.
Click to expand...


Reid hasn't played at this level for 2 years and yeah as you say he played 2nd or even 3rd fiddle and what did he do?

Amartey has the privilege of being a FF post buddy? So he takes the best defenders you mean?

I don't think we have any evidence at his age and time out of the Game Reid can do more than Amartey is now, he has struggled to most of his career.

People say to take Amarteys 9 out as an outlier , then Take Reid's 22 year out and assess his career? He lets us down more often than not.

Im not completely against the idea, I mean whoever the coaches think will win the game for us. But Reid is always rated so highly here when he isn't playing.

I think Reid has played more disappointing non contest games than Amartey has that's for sure and 2 years later can he give us anything? I agree his best is good, but so is Joel's.

Maybe the answer is actually Hamling if we change it up?

Again the idea of changing is one thing, but just how certain people are Reid can deliver when he so often doesn't in his career surprises me.
 
Banyo Bloods said:
Reid in to play a negative role on Lobb and just make sure it’s a contest. Wicks to sit at feet.

Not going to happen just musing
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I think this makes sense, I was thinking yesterday we should tag Andrews to give him a bit more to think about.
 
JackHiscoxWasFast said:
Let’s get a good chunk of the vfl team in this week. No more risks on Hayward, amartey, rowie or Mills (if he’s sore) plus any other player that needs it eg Grundy

Can not see us winning this one and don’t want us to if it’s at risk of further injury. But if the vfl boys have a crack who knows what could happen and could be the hitout they need and we might uncover some talent. Eg Corey who looked good today.

I like fast players.
Click to expand...


Why aren't we winning this one

Let's say Papley and Rampe are out, and heck it Rowbottom and Mills stay out and geez take Hayward too.

Last I checked we still have Blakey Heeney Gulden Warner- all supposed to be AA locks. We have one of the games best rucks, three good tall forwards who have at least shown what they can do. Mccartin and Melican

Lloyd, florent etc etc. It's still a good side

We are also at home , surely a bit easier for any VFL guys stepping up.

Bulldogs are 9th for a reason- they are average
 
Dubai Quacker said:
9 goal games are an outlier for any player.

Unfortunately for Joel, 3 goal games are also a bit of an outlier.

Our forward line isn’t outstanding, nor is it the reason we’re atop the ladder.

I suspect any of the 3 could be swapped out for Reid without any major impact.
Click to expand...

Sam Reid has kicked 3 goals or more in 11% of his career games .


Amartey is at 13% ... an outlier for both of them isn't it?
 
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