The Bottom 10 - Who is closest to a flag?

[Natho]

Saints.

 

[Benji85]

If Collingwood get a star forward, and an extra in the mid then they'll win a premiership with basically their current stock.
Freo with absolutely zero injuries and an entire forward line (Hogan & Mcarthy potentially)

No one else with their current list can win a premiership otherwise, most of those teams need big chop and changes

 

[BM123]

I think Carlton will probably drop off a little before we really start shaping up as a genuine contender.

 

[blueboy1960]

The Dees get big ticks in all of these bar defense and coaching.

Coaching is a tricky one though. Roos has been pretty amazing at developing assistant coaches into head ciaches and Goodwin has had a much bigger say in the gameplan this season, and has a really good relationship with key players.

On the flipside he hasnt actually coached a senior game yet.

Defense wise we simply need a furst string tall defender. A Frawley type if you will. Its a huge liability for us but part of it is caused by our high press gameplan.

Why do people say Roos has been amazing? Its got me beat. Melbourne has had the most draft picks i think after Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney and both these teams are performing a lot better than Melbourne. Can any one confirm my thinking? Sydney is playing so much better football without Roos as another indicator. In terms of who is the closest to a flag Gold Coast as it has the standout talent compared to the other teams. I love to say my team Carlton but still to early to call. Happy with progress under Bolton you just never know. Stranger things have happened just look at this years EPL champion team Leicester City

 

[ioppolo]

Who really knows. I doubt anyone had Eagles finishing 2nd after our dour 2014 season.

 

[Topkent]

Why do people say Roos has been amazing? Its got me beat. Melbourne has had the most draft picks i think after Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney and both these teams are performing a lot better than Melbourne. Can any one confirm my thinking? Sydney is playing so much better football without Roos as another indicator. In terms of who is the closest to a flag Gold Coast as it has the standout talent compared to the other teams. I love to say my team Carlton but still to early to call. Happy with progress under Bolton you just never know. Stranger things have happened just look at this years EPL champion team Leicester City

Sydney went 72 years as an organisation without a flag before Roos took over, He built that club into the powerhouse it is now with Stewy Maxfield, Paul Kelly, Brett Kirk etc
He then set up the first succesful coaching handover to John Longmire who had an unbreakable culture set up by Roos to work with and how adapted his gameplan to modern footy which Roos has done at Melbourne

As for what he has done at Melbourne its up for our supporters to judge the impact he has had cause we were the only ones watching us play in 12/13 when we were worse than anything ive seen
If it hadnt been for the expansion clubs we would have won 1 game in 2 seasons, no other side has been that bad in the Pro era
He has been fantastic for us

Some Carlton supporters are getting real floggish off the back of half a season

 

[Topkent]

Melbourne withiut Hogan wont win a flag. It all hinges on him staying as players like him dont come around often.

Port have a relatively young, experienced core of top shelf talent

Melbiurne have a very young, inexperienced core of potentially amazing talent.

Im going with Port.

This is stupid thinking

Tony Lockett
Gary Ablett SNR
Nick Riewoldt
Matthew Pavlich
Matthew Richardson

Just a few superstar forwards who never played in a premiership and Hogan has a ****ing long way to go to be talked about in the same breath as them
Franklin leaves the Hawks to rival swans team , Hawks become better and beat Swans in 2014 GF with Buddy playing well


The messiah attitude is why Melbourne has been a bottom feeding club, Buddy wanted to leave so Clarko said no worries play as a flanker in 13 and we will use someone else as the go to forward

 

[BM123]

WC won a flag with the Q-stick and Cam Mooney wasn't a real super star.

 

[i am a logo]

Who really knows. I doubt anyone had Eagles finishing 2nd after our dour 2014 season.

https://www.bigfooty.com/forum/threads/best-coasts-premiership-journey-begins.1089018/

 

[footyfan1978]

Carlton
Port Adelaide
Melbourne
Collingwood
St Kilda
Richmond
Gold Coast
Freo
Brisbane
Essendon

Which out of these teams will next win a flag? I bias but I think my Dees. We have a great young group who will all really hit their prime in 2/3 years. Our defence and outside run needs work though. I could be bias as there are a few clubs who are also up there.

What do you reckon?

Melbourne probably.

Angus Brayshaw, Petracca, Viney, Oliver, Gawn, McDonald brothers, Hogan, Salem, Tyson, Bugg, Kennedy, Wagner, Trengrove, Jones, Hunt, Kent, Stretch, Harmes, Watts, Weidemann and Vandenberg can all stay and develop as a team together much like Geelong had youngsters like Ablett, Kelly, Ling, Enright, Corey, Mackie, Josh Hunt, Wojcinski, Harley, Johnson and Chapman all develop together over a decade ago and eventually after a few finals series let downs had some success in 2007, 2009 and 2011.

If the club and football department focus on keeping most of that core together and keep improving the list where they can in next 3 years there is no reason they can not be contender in say 2019 or 2020.

In particular Gawn, McDonalds, Hogan, Viney, Petracca, Brayshaw and Oliver is the type of core talent to make yourself a contender if that group is complemented by the right foot soldiers around them. However I am basing that on pure talent alone. As far as coaching and game plan in coming years goes, I'm still feeling a bit in the dark with what plans the people in power have for the right coaching team to guide them. The fact Roosy is going soon and a new head coach will be on board soon still leaves me as an outsider with uncertainty what to expect.

The other club that still has a lot of talent on their list is Gold Coast but at the moment with so many key injuries they look unstable in so many ways and too much talk of Swallow, Prestia and O'Meara possibly leaving to feel confident in whom is on their list 3 years into the future. They already lost Dixon and Bennell last season. I will say though with May and Thompson they have some strong key defence for years to come and Lynch up forward you got to like.
If Touk Miller, Ah Chee, Martin, Saad etc kick on plus those 3 gun young injured mids stay it is not too late to turn it around. They are going to have to stick fat though in this tough year for them to not lose the foundations of a quality side.

Port Adelaide when Ryder is back with Charlie Dixon could have a decent side but been some worrying cracks in their character this season that have showed up. They need another A grade mid for mine too. Wines and Gray have too much to do at moment to think they can be a contender next year. Need some serious quality help. Maybe if they themselves snared a Prestia off Gold Coast it might be enough to be a serious contender. At the moment they kind of remind me of the Terry Wallace Bulldog sides of 1997 and 1998 that played a number of finals but never actually got into a grand final. There is an element of down hill skiers to them that needs more substance to be there on last weekend.

Collingwood with Darcy Moore, Langdon, Treloar, Sidebottom, Elliott, Fasolo, Reid, Adams, Broomhead, Scharenberg, Marsh and Mason Cox have something they can build on in coming 4 years but until they get a decent coach they are going nowhere. Even with a good coach they will need more elite talent to be added.

St.Kilda with Billings, Jack Steven Dunstan, McCartin and Lonie have some talent. Bruce had one good season and not sure where he is in 2016. Not sure of the rest of their young players. It is clear a lot more talent to be added to even make finals. Nick Riewoldt and Fisher are close to done so the tall stocks need some influx in next 12 months and Armitage is 27 so their is not a lot of depth in middle.

Brisbane have more talent than many of these teams now but too many injuries and uncertainty of coaching. Rockliff, Beams, Hanley, Zorko and Robinson should be having them in contention for finals football but injuries and no established tall forwards has them in limbo in 2016. They could surprise though next year if they get a lot of things right and injuries to midfield not happening to them. They need key position development big time to ever become a contender in future years.

Richmond are just a joke for mine so had their peak in last couple of years. Up years for them is just being in finals. Winning them, rofl.

Essendon have Zach Merrett and Zaharkis as decent mid youngsters. Hurley if they keep is a step forward. Parish and McDonald-Tipp is a step in right direction. Need about 10 more steps just to even get out of bottom half of ladder. The best thing I can say is their future is not as bleak as Richmond's.

Fremantle like Richmond I just don't see having much to excite about. Least they know they have stability off field and a coach they know can at least win finals. Fyfe and Lachie Neale going to need some gun talls to help them make anything of their club in next five years. Over to the recruiters to fix the mess.
They should get a first or second draft pick this year. They have to do what Carlton done and snare a gun like Weitering to start the re-build. Key forward is number one priority. If they snare Hogan off Melbourne and Hooker off Bombers they could rebound quicker than I expect right at the minute but even those gains would be just getting them in contention to only make the 8. The dream of a premiership with Sandilands, Pavlich, McPharlin, Mundy and Barlow types is well and truly over and Ross Lyon has not messed about realizing he needs to make changes.

My Carlton club have finally got a good recruiting set up in place and the right type of coaching structure in the football department. However we were building from a genuine ground zero with worst list in the league in October. We probably got the football department set up best of any of these ten clubs but our list still has 4 or 5 drafts and trade periods to build a list good enough to even dream of anything like being a contender. Just knowing there is hope is a massive boost in spirit after the sense of none.

However, in conclusion I think Melbourne have the most playing resources to be closest to a flag of these ten clubs to bridge gap on top few clubs.
GWS, Bulldogs and Swans are going to be contenders for some time to come so a lot will have to go right for any club to snare a flag in next five years as Giants are overflowing with talent and Dogs not far behind. Any club in bottom ten need to look at those clubs list and present Sydney list to get an idea of talent need built up to be a serious contender.

 

[Bokonon]

History tells you its a big call to say Melbourne can come back and win a flag. I think its probably irrelevant talking about this when GWS aint going anywhwere any time soon.

Àwwww shucks, we're really trying to keep a low profile and we havem't played finals yet.

 

[Bokonon]

Why do people say Roos has been amazing? Its got me beat. Melbourne has had the most draft picks i think after Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney and both these teams are performing a lot better than Melbourne. Can any one confirm my thinking? Sydney is playing so much better football without Roos as another indicator. In terms of who is the closest to a flag Gold Coast as it has the standout talent compared to the other teams. I love to say my team Carlton but still to early to call. Happy with progress under Bolton you just never know. Stranger things have happened just look at this years EPL champion team Leicester City

I think when you look at the Swans when he arrived and when he left your question is really answered. Both his influence and as a player and coach. When he arrived they were pretty weak and struggling with the Eddleston era. When he left they were a tough club who could win flags.
Dont know enough about his time at Melbourne and will leave that to.others.

 

[Lsta062]

My order:

1. Melbourne - They look like they are building the most complete list out of all the bottom 10 sides. Whether they stagnate and go backwards like previous years is another question.

2. Port Adelaide - the best of the lot IMO at the moment. With Ryder back and if they bring in more talent through draft/trading, I think they can start contending soon

3. Fremantle - A season on the bottom and getting a high draft pick + a couple of recruitments can get them back up again quite easily IMO.

4. St Kilda - They are only young, so with Carlisle back and potentially another pick in the top 10, they can start building towards playing finals next year.

5. Collingwood -They have quite a few holes in their list, but I think there is talent there to work with.

6. Carlton - A little reliant on the older guy at this stage, so I think they'll take a step back from now before propelling forward again.

7. Essendon - Their youth are in a high-intensity environmenr at the moment. Once the other players return, I think they can start to contend quickly.

8. Gold Coast - Their list may not look in that much if a good shape at the moment, but remember that they have been decimated with injuries. Had they have had all their players, they would have performed much better IMO.

9. Richmond - This is if they remain on the way they are at the moment. Once they change though, the outlook may be sifferent

10. Brisbane - To be honest, I don't know what they are doing and where they are heading. That is why I put them last. I just don't know about their list enough but look at the results and see them quite far off.

 

[HBF]

I think Carlton will probably drop off a little before we really start shaping up as a genuine contender.

Yeah I agree. Think we might plateau next year before making another jump in 2018. Although that could change if we trade and draft well at years end.

 

[Only Forwards]

Richmond supporters spent all summer telling us how close they were.

Oh how the mediocre have fallen.

 

[LeverPuller]

Let me put together a Melbourne side under the age of 25...

B: Bugg OMac Wagner
HB: Melksham TMac Salem
C: Stretch Viney Kennedy
HF: Petracca Weiderman vandenBerg
F: Kent Hogan ANB
R: Gawn Tyson Oliver
Int from: Brayshaw Hunt Frost Harmes Trengove

Compared to best 22...

B: Jetta Frost Bugg
HB: Wagner TMac Hunt
C: Stretch Viney Kennedy
HF: Petracca Pedersen Watts
F: Kent Hogan Garlett
R: Gawn Jones Vince
Int: Tyson Oliver OMac Harmes

 

[Jesse Custer]

Usually teams look great on paper...

 

[LeverPuller]

Usually teams look great on paper...

Oh I agree, but the bottom side - the current side, effectively - is only 6 players different from the top side. I feel like that's where the difference lies - the guys playing pretty good footy now are the guys that still have experience and time on their side.

Don't get me wrong - it could all turn to shit in a heartbeat. But right now it's pretty exciting.

 

[eth-dog]

I'm bored with a lot of time on my hands, so I've put together some statistical analysis for the 10 different teams. This will only include one stat for attack/defense because I don't have enough resources at my disposal and I think this is the most effective way to actually measure a team's attack/defence, rather than the points for/against.

Defence (% goals conceded per inside 50)

1. Port Adelaide (23.4%)
2. Carlton (24.7%)
3. Collingwood (26.1%)
4. St. Kilda (26.2%)
5. Essendon (26.5%)
6. Melbourne (26.7%)
7. Richmond (27.0%)
8. Gold Coast (27.3%)
9. Fremantle (27.6%)
10. Brisbane (31.2%)

This one is pretty self-explanatory. Essendon next year will probably launch into the top 3 of this group with the return of Hooker, and possibly Hibberd and Hurley too.

Midfield (clearance differential, contested possession differential, % inside 50's conceded per opposition disposals, % inside 50's per disposals)

1. Melbourne (5, 6.6, 14%, 15%)
2. Fremantle (0.8, -3.6, 13%, 13%)
3. Richmond (1.7, 0.5, 15%, 13%)
4. Collingwood (-2.3, 0.2, 14%, 13%)
5. St. Kilda (-2.5, -11, 14%, 13%)
6. Port Adelaide (-3.3, -3.2, 15%, 16%)
7. Carlton (-4.6, -3.1, 14%, 14%)
8. Essendon (-2.6, -13.4, 14%, 12%)
9. Brisbane (-7.6, -14.8, 15%, 14%)
10. Gold Coast (-4.8, -11.4, 16%, 13%)

What this tells me is that Melbourne are excellent at the contest and have strong ball movement. Port are massive front runners, having the best offensive transition but one of the worst defensive transitions.

Forward (% goals per inside 50)

1. Melbourne (27.8%)
2. Port Adelaide (25.6%)
3. Richmond (25.5%)
4. Gold Coast (25.3%)
5. St. Kilda (25.0%)
6. Collingwood (24.5%)
7. Brisbane (23.1%)
8. Fremantle (22.6%)
9. Carlton (21.4%)
10. Essendon (18.5%)

Also self-explanatory. Melbourne's forward line is looking pretty potent right now.

Overall, statistically (let's say 10 points for finishing top of said group, 1 point for finishing last in group), we'd be looking at:

1. Melbourne: 25 points
1. Port Adelaide: 25 points
3. Richmond: 20 points
3. Collingwood: 20 points
5. St. Kilda: 19 points
6. Gold Coast: 18 points
7. Carlton: 15 points
8. Fremantle: 14 points
9. Essendon: 12 points
10. Brisbane: 7 points

 

[DrEvil_]

It's Freo. They are just having one of those years, will come back strong when Fyfe is back.

 

[smasha]

Richmond are having a year like Port last year.
Just need to get our list up to scratch ,that doesn't mean trading our guns.
Media over negatising Richmond this year then when we win,they blow our bubble to bursting point,wish we were protected like the other clubs!
North always beat us regardless of ladder position so take that game with a grain of salt.

 

[eth-dog]

Let me put together a Melbourne side under the age of 25...

B: Bugg OMac Wagner
HB: Melksham TMac Salem
C: Stretch Viney Kennedy
HF: Petracca Weiderman vandenBerg
F: Kent Hogan ANB
R: Gawn Tyson Oliver
Int from: Brayshaw Hunt Frost Harmes Trengove

Compared to best 22...

B: Jetta Frost Bugg
HB: Wagner TMac Hunt
C: Stretch Viney Kennedy
HF: Petracca Pedersen Watts
F: Kent Hogan Garlett
R: Gawn Jones Vince
Int: Tyson Oliver OMac Harmes

Here's something similar for Essendon (without bans/top ups obviously):

FB: Ashby - Hartley - Francis
HB: Walla - Ambrose - Gleeson
MF: J Merrett - Heppell - Colyer
HF: Redman - Langford - Laverde
FF: Fantasia - Daniher - Edwards
OB: Nyuon - Z Merrett - Parish
IC: Hams - Morgan - Long - McKenna

Very small side. Average height of 179.3 cm, three ruckman sized players, and only two others taller than 190 cm.

Best 22:

FB: Baguley - Hurley - Hartley
HB: Walla - Hooker - Hibberd
MF: Colyer - Heppell - Z Merrett
HF: Langford - Daniher - Brown
FF: Fantasia - Bellchambers - Laverde
OB: Leuenberger - Watson - Myers
IC: Hocking - Stanton - Parish - Goddard

That's 10 out of the 22. Could be worse I guess.

 

[LeverPuller]

Here's something similar for Essendon (without bans/top ups obviously):

FB: Ashby - Hartley - Francis
HB: Walla - Ambrose - Gleeson
MF: J Merrett - Heppell - Colyer
HF: Redman - Langford - Laverde
FF: Fantasia - Daniher - Edwards
OB: Nyuon - Z Merrett - Parish
IC: Hams - Morgan - Long - McKenna

Very small side. Average height of 179.3 cm, three ruckman sized players, and only two others taller than 190 cm.

Best 22:

FB: Baguley - Hurley - Hartley
HB: Walla - Hooker - Hibberd
MF: Colyer - Heppell - Z Merrett
HF: Langford - Daniher - Brown
FF: Fantasia - Bellchambers - Laverde
OB: Leuenberger - Watson - Myers
IC: Hocking - Stanton - Parish - Goddard

That's 10 out of the 22. Could be worse I guess.

It'd be interesting to put together some of the others. Carlton, for example, would lose all of Kreuzer, Rowe, Gibbs, Murphy, Simpson, Curnow out of that side just off the top of my head. Freo lose Pav, Sandi, Johnson, Griffin, Clarke, Ibbotson, Dawson, Ballantyne, Walters.

 

[Bic]

It'd be interesting to put together some of the others. Carlton, for example, would lose all of Kreuzer, Rowe, Gibbs, Murphy, Simpson, Curnow out of that side just off the top of my head. Freo lose Pav, Sandi, Johnson, Griffin, Clarke, Ibbotson, Dawson, Ballantyne, Walters.

It's hard to argue against a lot of what you are saying, however there are so many more factors than this.

Melbourne will have a new coach - that is a massive change whether you think so or not.

 

[LeverPuller]

It's hard to argue against a lot of what you are saying, however there are so many more factors than this.

Melbourne will have a new coach - that is a massive change whether you think so or not.

True, but given that Goodwin is running training and tactics I don't think it's as huge a shift as a fresh appointment. I'm expecting Roos to start taking the back seat on most aspects after the bye.