The Brownlow Guru speaks again

[TripleB]

How does the top 5 betting work? Does a particular player have to earn their spot within the top 5 outright, or can there be multiple players on the same score within the top 5.

E.g. Last year:

James Bartel 29
Simon Black 22
Daniel Kerr 22
Brent Harvey 22
Sam Mitchell 21
Adam Goodes 20
Dane Swan 20
Gary Ablett 20
Scott Thompson 18

Would the top 5 end at Mitchell or finish on Thompson going by votes?

You're obviously serious, so I won't poke fun at you.

The payouts would stop at Mitchell in your example.

 

[Effes]

In terms of last years odds...these are off the top of my head...excluding those I've forgotten

Adelaide
McLeod about $2
Goodwin about $3
S Thompson $7

Brisbane
J Brown $1.25 or so
S Black $3.25

Carlton
Scotland $2.40
Carrazzo $2.70

Collingwood
Swan $2.75
Lockyer $3.10

Essendon
Can't remember

Fremantle
Can't remember

Geelong
Ablett $1.80
Bartel $3.50
Corey $6 or so

Hawthorn
Mitchell $2.00
Hodge $4

Kangaroos
B Harvey $1.20
A Simpson $4

Melbourne
Can't remember

Port Adelaide
C COrnes $1.70
K Cornes $1.90
S Burgoyne (winner) $13 or so

Richmond
Foley or Deledio or Tuck pretty short
Richardson (winner) Paying about $7

St Kilda
Volt or Ball I think
Dal Santo paying about $4 (winner)

Sydney
Goodes about $1.10

West Coast
Kerr very short
then Judd

Western Bulldogs
Br Johnson $2.60
West $2.80
Cross $3 or so
Boyd a bit more

 

[ManWithNoName]

Richo @ $356 is not bad....he had a rip snorter of a year

Richo had a rip snorter of a first half of the season. Did more or less nothing in the second half. Not a chance at even getting a place.

 

[BLPC08]

My money is on Brent Harvey, the little fella polled very well last year - and I think he has had more of an impact this year. Jimmy Bartel will come second.

 

[BrownlowGuru]

Here are the team votes.

Adel: Thompson S 1.795
Adel: van Berlo N 5.852
Adel: Bock N 9.829
Adel: Burton B 20.425
Adel: Vince B 29.092
Adel: McLeod A 41.690
Adel: Edwards T 49.196
Adel: Porplyzia J 52.417
Adel: Goodwin S 66.694
OTHERS>150

Bris: Black S 1.371
Bris: Brown J 7.289
Bris: Power L 11.383
Bris: Bradshaw D 27.508
OTHERS>200

Carl: Judd C 1.752
Carl: Stevens N 5.397
Carl: Fevola B 8.696
Carl: Murphy M 13.375
Carl: Carazzo A 55.075
Carl: Waite J 59.709
Carl: Scotland H 65.699
OTHERS>200

Coll: Swan D 1.395
Coll: Medhurst P 13.347
Coll: Davis L 16.435
Coll: Cloke T 20.251
Coll: Didak A 26.974
Coll: Pendlebury S 34.096
Coll: Shaw H 52.622
Coll: Burns S 119.446
OTHERS > 500

Ess: Lloyd M 2.982
Ess: Hille D 3.886
Ess: Stanton B 4.491
Ess: McVeigh M 7.415
Ess: Watson J 23.613
OTHERS > 200

Fre: Pavlich M 1.203
Fre: Palmer R 11.477
Fre: Schammer B 25.525
Fre: Sandilands A 28.567
OTHERS>200

Geel: Bartel J 1.679
Geel: Corey J 4.528
Geel: Ablett G 6.319
Geel: Selwood J 40.354
OTHERS > 1000

Haw: Franklin L 2.391
Haw: Mitchell S 2.678
Haw: Hodge L 5.546
Haw: Bateman C 42.472
OTHERS >400

Kang: Harvey B 1.077
Kang: Wells D 29.935
Kang: Petrie D 33.781
Kang: Simpson A 184.162
OTHERS > 1000

Melb: Bruce C 3.163
Melb: Wheatley P 4.891
Melb: Miller B 5.427
Melb: Green B 6.861
Melb: McLean B 14.075
Melb: Morton C 23.416
Melb: Wonaeamirri A 145.075
Melb: Jones N 158.887
Melb: Johnson C 178.426
Melb: Davey A 228.838
OTHERS > 300


Pt A: Cornes K 2.189
Pt A: Salopek S 7.498
Pt A: Cassisi D 8.632
Pt A: Rodan D 9.902
Pt A: Motlop D 12.111
Pt A: Burgoyne S 23.987
Pt A: Burgoyne P 25.958
Pt A: Pearce D 46.410
OTHERS > 150

Rich: Richardson M 1.523
Rich: Deledio B 7.791
Rich: Tuck S 8.736
Rich: Bowden J 25.002
Rich: Foley N 32.989
Rich: Brown N 44.050
OTHERS > 200

St K: Riewoldt N 1.268
St K: Hayes L 14.481
St K: Dal Santo N 19.682
St K: Montagna L 23.607
St K: Gram J 47.880
St K: Goddard B 95.326
St K: Ball L 98.538
St K: Fisher S 195.593
OTHERS > 500

Syd: Goodes A 2.123
Syd: Kirk B 3.213
Syd: O'Keefe R 9.462
Syd: McVeigh J 22.264
Syd: Bolton J 33.630
Syd: Mattner M 38.117
Syd: Hall B 189.693
OTHERS > 250

WB: Cooney A 1.370
WB: Cross D 5.800
WB: Akermanis J 14.092
WB: Boyd M 83.914
WB: Giansiracusa D 178.731
WB: Johnson B 240.577
OTHERS > 300

WCE: Cox D 1.638
WCE: Lynch Q 9.354
WCE: Priddis M 10.873
WCE: Kerr D 18.521
WCE: McKinley B 19.264
WCE: Braun M 24.706
WCE: Ebert B 51.313
WCE: Embley A 81.530
WCE: Jones B 176.701
OTHERS > 300

 

[BrownlowGuru]

I had a look through last year's thread. The only gaping hole in the analysis is Simon Black - who was 5th favourite to take out the leading Brisbane votes!

Last year Black definitely over-polled, which was not something that he had done in the preceeding years. Statistically last year was similar to 2005 and 2006 when he polled 6 and 11 votes respectively. That is why my model did not predict him doing that well last year.

 

[BrownlowGuru]

Just looked it up, Cross has a history of not getting votes when he should have. Seems TAB have done their research

True, but this year he has played well in a side that has won a lot of games.

 

[BrownlowGuru]

No Cox? is that an oversight or you just do not see him getting any votes?

Unfortunately while Cox has a lot of games in which he could poll votes, the chances of him getting some 3's are very slim considering the year that the WEagles had. And hasn't traditionally had a good run from the umpires.

 

[BrownlowGuru]

I'd be interested know where you predict players who are ineligible for the Brownlow will finish, ie. Sam Mitchell.

There is approximately 1 in 10 chance that the top poller will be ineligible.

Mitchell - 5%
Franklin - 4%
Hodge - 1.4%
Goodes - 0.2%

 

[Rowie09]

How have you got Lloyd at paying $2 for the bombers, where the TOTE has him at $15?

This must be worth a flutter, surely?

 

[Homeofthedragon155]

Richoo for the brownlow medal

 

[Carlton Kid]

True, but this year he has played well in a side that has won a lot of games.

He didn't poll too strongly in 2006 despite having the Bulldogs winning games. Very similiar stats as well. Strong money for mine should be on Bartel and Corey.

 

[Reg Hickey]

Last year Black definitely over-polled, which was not something that he had done in the preceeding years. Statistically last year was similar to 2005 and 2006 when he polled 6 and 11 votes respectively. That is why my model did not predict him doing that well last year.

So is his "over-polling" taken into account in this year's model?

In other words, do you have him doing better this year than he would have with the same performance last year, because he polled so well last year?

 

[BrownlowGuru]

So is his "over-polling" taken into account in this year's model?

In other words, do you have him doing better this year than he would have with the same performance last year, because he polled so well last year?

Yes - previous voting history is taken into account when probabilities are calculated.

 

[cammo78]

He didn't poll too strongly in 2006 despite having the Bulldogs winning games. Very similiar stats as well. Strong money for mine should be on Bartel and Corey.

scott west was runner up....took all the votes. cooney may do the same to him this year.

 

[Walshy_The_Goat]

Looking at a multi consisting of Black, Riewoldt, Harvey, Swan, Cooney, Judd, Thompson.

Thoughts? My only query is on Swan and Riewoldt. Brownlow Guru do you believe they are as near certainties as your quoted odds indicate?

 

[Marklar_33]

There is approximately 1 in 10 chance that the top poller will be ineligible.

Mitchell - 5%
Franklin - 4%
Hodge - 1.4%
Goodes - 0.2%

Strange of you to state Mitchell has most chance of polling most votes while inelligible, but Franklin favourite for most votes at Hawthorn... is there a logic behind this?

 

[Scottroo]

my 2 cents...will invest 50 dollars like this

5 dollars on (any player not listed) david rodan @ $15

10 dollars J Bartel WIN

10 Dollars Lance Franklin most votes Hawks @ 3.50

5 dollars Scott Thompson Crows $2.00 with a saver of 5 dollars Nathan Bock @ 8 Dollars

5 Dollar Multi Thompson, Harvey, Cox, Franklin, Richardson, Pavlich, Black, Judd, Bartel

5 Dollar Multi, Thompson, Harvey, Cox, Black, Judd, Cooney

 

[BrownlowGuru]

Strange of you to state Mitchell has most chance of polling most votes while inelligible, but Franklin favourite for most votes at Hawthorn... is there a logic behind this?

Yeah - good question. I hadn't noticed this.

Looking at the numbers closer, I have Mitchell with a mean of 15.15 and a stdev of 4.2. For Franklin, these are 15.59 with a stdev of 3.5.

What this means is that while Franklin is more likely to poll higher than Mitchell (and top Hawthorn), Mitchell is more likely to have a big night and poll most of all. As a sidenote, Mitchell is more likely to finish in the top 3, while Franklin is more likely to finish top 5.

As to why Mitchell has a greater stdev - this is because he has more 17 games where he could potentially poll (equal highest with Corey), while Franklin has 10.

 

[gnostic]

Last year Black definitely over-polled, which was not something that he had done in the preceeding years. Statistically last year was similar to 2005 and 2006 when he polled 6 and 11 votes respectively. That is why my model did not predict him doing that well last year.

He's magic and worth looking at for the brownlow. I've done a comprehensive analysis on a spreadsheet, and I can assure you, he'll be in front after 11 rounds. I think they'll chase him down, but he's a decent smokey. Happy to send the spreadsheet to those that are interested....

 

[__DaVE]

He's magic and worth looking at for the brownlow. I've done a comprehensive analysis on a spreadsheet, and I can assure you, he'll be in front after 11 rounds. I think they'll chase him down, but he's a decent smokey. Happy to send the spreadsheet to those that are interested....

i'd love to have a look! done a few calculations in my head but nothing as comprehensive...

 

[Rowie09]

He's magic and worth looking at for the brownlow. I've done a comprehensive analysis on a spreadsheet, and I can assure you, he'll be in front after 11 rounds. I think they'll chase him down, but he's a decent smokey. Happy to send the spreadsheet to those that are interested....

Wouldnt mind having a squiz mate??

 

[Marklar_33]

Yeah - good question. I hadn't noticed this.

Looking at the numbers closer, I have Mitchell with a mean of 15.15 and a stdev of 4.2. For Franklin, these are 15.59 with a stdev of 3.5.

What this means is that while Franklin is more likely to poll higher than Mitchell (and top Hawthorn), Mitchell is more likely to have a big night and poll most of all. As a sidenote, Mitchell is more likely to finish in the top 3, while Franklin is more likely to finish top 5.

As to why Mitchell has a greater stdev - this is because he has more 17 games where he could potentially poll (equal highest with Corey), while Franklin has 10.

Thanks

 

[gnostic]

Wouldnt mind having a squiz mate??

No probs, just PM your email address and I'll send it to you... happy to help fellow punters!

 

[Bubba_5]

Yeah - good question. I hadn't noticed this.

Looking at the numbers closer, I have Mitchell with a mean of 15.15 and a stdev of 4.2. For Franklin, these are 15.59 with a stdev of 3.5.

What this means is that while Franklin is more likely to poll higher than Mitchell (and top Hawthorn), Mitchell is more likely to have a big night and poll most of all. As a sidenote, Mitchell is more likely to finish in the top 3, while Franklin is more likely to finish top 5.

As to why Mitchell has a greater stdev - this is because he has more 17 games where he could potentially poll (equal highest with Corey), while Franklin has 10.

Love your work, Brownlow Guru. When you speak of mean and stdev, are the set of scores all your simulations? Also, I assume all of this work is produced from research into the importance/likeliness of polling with various statistics? If so, which stats did you research into, and how did you weigh them? If thats not too much .