Analysis The Clarkson Rebuild Model - A Reason For Optimism

[Davo-27]

The reason why the draft is of less value is simple. Its called Free-Agency. Why take a chance on some raw kid when you can cherry pick talent?

 

[Brishawk]

The reason why the draft is of less value is simple. Its called Free-Agency. Why take a chance on some raw kid when you can cherry pick talent?

If I get time I'll try to put an actual value on on FA selections v draft picks v trade outcomes. In fact, its why I started all these graphs in the first place...they are a stepping stone to answering that very question! Won't be easy as the data I'm working with isn't great and has holes in it but hey, I ain't paying for it so can't complain

 

[Davo-27]

If I get time I'll try to put an actual value on on FA selections v draft picks v trade outcomes. In fact, its why I started all these graphs in the first place...they are a stepping stone to answering that very question! Won't be easy as the data I'm working with isn't great and has holes in it but hey, I ain't paying for it so can't complain

I made a draft value post a few years back. It is fascinating information.

I think free agency and trading is the way to go, when you are sure on the talent you are after. It becomes less valuable when you go for unknown talents like O'Rourke ect.

 

[Brishawk]

Yes, that's the problem when you try to do it at game time. And I reckon that's why we haven't seen it.

But if I were strategising and training to play Hawthorn (with time to get players educated, etc) then I think I would go the fight fire with fire. If this ends up working for us (particularly if we beat Richmond without Hodge and then put on a respectable post-season show) then I think you'll see four or so imitators next year. The teams that are more dynamic and able to adjust.


I am surprised that we haven't seen much talk about this on the footy shows. Or at least I haven't seen any. I haven't seen it in the paper either. I think everyone believes this is a gimmick rather than a solid strategy. Perhaps it is. Or perhaps it started that way but I think it's demonstrated some long term value. We'll see, I guess.

They key to defending the tactic is causing the ball to be fed backwards out of the centre and forcing the runners from behind to kick the ball to your numbers standing 40-50m from goal. The last thing you want is a kick that goes over that line. Have the wingers push in off the square to intercept the runners, win the ball at half back and then break hard and move the ball forward quickly to your forward line where you are one on one. I saw Sydney have a man free on the wing and he stayed out looking for the ball rather than pushing in trying to defend the runners. That could also work if you are winning the ball out of the centre and Hawthorn are leaving the wing empty.

 

[grumbleguts]

The problem with simply copying your opposition is that they've trained for it, while you haven't.

Port Adelaide did it to us in the 2014 prelim without training for it and it nearly ripped us a new one.

 

[OzJohnnie]

They key to defending the tactic is causing the ball to be fed backwards out of the centre and forcing the runners from behind to kick the ball to your numbers standing 40-50m from goal. The last thing you want is a kick that goes over that line. Have the wingers push in off the square to intercept the runners, win the ball at half back and then break hard and move the ball forward quickly to your forward line where you are one on one. I saw Sydney have a man free on the wing and he stayed out looking for the ball rather than pushing in trying to defend the runners. That could also work if you are winning the ball out of the centre and Hawthorn are leaving the wing empty.

So, if I'm Sydney I need to get the ball moving forward so that if Hawthorn kick then it goes into my crowded defense?

Or, if I'm Sydney I want the ball to go back toward my defensive goal so a loose man can pick it up and kick over the onrushing Hawthorn wave?

The first one is ok, but it needs a contested ball gorilla (like Danger) no? Otherwise I'm just overrun and all my players are moving forward - the wrong direction.

The second one is unappealing to me because I think Hawthorn already has the momentum of numbers rushing on. If the ball goes backwards then it's moving in the direction of all the Hawthorn players and they can overrun me like the Doggies like doing.

I'm not sure what to do. If it's a gimmick then I would ignore it as it will pass because gimmicks wear out their welcome when they fall apart, as they always do. But if it's a legit strategy with commitment and follow-through, then I'm in trouble.

 

[OzJohnnie]

Port Adelaide did it to us in the 2014 prelim without training for it and it nearly ripped us a new one.

Interesting. I didn't realise they were doing that.

 

[grumbleguts]

Interesting. I didn't realise they were doing that.

Pretty sure this is where clarkson got the idea from. They were stackingthe backline at the bounce and with nothing to lose streaming forward at the bounce in a wave.

 

[Brishawk]

So, if I'm Sydney I need to get the ball moving forward so that if Hawthorn kick then it goes into my crowded defense?

Or, if I'm Sydney I want the ball to go back toward my defensive goal so a loose man can pick it up and kick over the onrushing Hawthorn wave?

The first one is ok, but it needs a contested ball gorilla (like Danger) no? Otherwise I'm just overrun and all my players are moving forward - the wrong direction.

The second one is unappealing to me because I think Hawthorn already has the momentum of numbers rushing on. If the ball goes backwards then it's moving in the direction of all the Hawthorn players and they can overrun me like the Doggies like doing.

I'm not sure what to do. If it's a gimmick then I would ignore it as it will pass because gimmicks wear out their welcome when they fall apart, as they always do. But if it's a legit strategy with commitment and follow-through, then I'm in trouble.

Sorry, everything I wrote was how you defend against it I.e. If you don't win the clearance. You setup in the centre to encourage the ball going to their defensive side and have your wings come in and prevent the runners going past the centre with the ball. This should force a longer higher kick. It would also stop the opposition mids running forward as they dont know if they will win the ball or not. The longer higher kick will go to a hotspot and then your extra number/s should see the ball move quickly out of the area. Wingers should be read to receive as soon as the ball is kicked by the opposition.

 

[Mr Lizard]

Melbourne were starting an extra couple off the back of the square a couple weeks ago.

I don't know how long they've been doing this, or how often, but I don't think it's a 'Clarko' thing.

 

[OzJohnnie]

Pretty sure this is where clarkson got the idea from. They were stackingthe backline at the bounce and with nothing to lose streaming forward at the bounce in a wave.

I'm going to see if I can find a copy of that game and watch it. I was much less footy aware four years ago and that would have gone over my head.

 

[grumbleguts]

I'm going to see if I can find a copy of that game and watch it. I was much less footy aware four years ago and that would have gone over my head.

The commentators mention it a few times in the last quarter.

 

[OzJohnnie]

Melbourne were starting an extra couple off the back of the square a couple weeks ago.

I don't know how long they've been doing this, or how often, but I don't think it's a 'Clarko' thing.

Yes, you're right. It's not exclusive to Clarko. But he does seem to do it every bounce for about five or six games now. It does seem as if he's adopted it as the regular play rather than a temporary tactic.

I hope so anyway as it gives us something interesting to think about.

 

[MadDawg]

I can see this new tactic getting a highly imaginative name from Gerard Healy like 'Clarko's Wave'

 

[OzJohnnie]

I can see this new tactic getting a highly imaginative name from Gerard Healy like 'Clarko's Wave'

Ha! The challenge is two words starting with the same letter. Clarko's Cluster. Weagle's Web.

 

[moginie]

Ha! The challenge is two words starting with the same letter. Clarko's Cluster. Weagle's Web.

Clarko's cascade.

 

[Mr Lizard]

Dwarf's Deluge.

 

[moginie]

Napoleon's nexus.

 

[cryptor]

Port Adelaide did it to us in the 2014 prelim without training for it and it nearly ripped us a new one.

Starting a couple extras at the back of the square and rushing forward?

That wasn't out strategy in 2014 so they weren't copying us.

 

[Brishawk]

Clarko's charge.

Clarko' counter strike.

Clarko's concave wave.

Hawk howitzer.

 

[moginie]

Just thought I would bump what I think is the best thread of the year. Even in hindsight it makes fascinating reading, especially considering how we finished up and the personnel we've recently brought in.

Great job Brishawk.

 

[Brishawk]

Just thought I would bump what I think is the best thread of the year. Even in hindsight it makes fascinating reading, especially considering how we finished up and the personnel we've recently brought in.

Great job Brishawk.

Let’s just hope what follows approaches what we achieved after the last rebuild

 

[threesixpio]

This thread makes me miss Oz Johnnie



Brishawk and OJ talking tactics together is gold

 

[Gene Simmons]

Just imagine when Hawks win the 2018 premiership and it's known as the quickest rebuild in history...

 

[tige19]

Surely with the inclusions of Stratts and Chip in the backline that this will allow Burton to play as a bullocking free roaming mid? What do we think? Is this the nature progression for him?