The Curse of #4

[Daytripper]

1996 - Mark Kinnear
1997 - Mark Bolton
1998 - Ryan Fitzgerald
1999 - Matthew Pavlich ***
2000 - Luke Livingston
2001 - Graham Polak
2002 - Tim Walsh
2003 - Farren Ray
2004 - Richard Tambling
2005 - Josh Kennedy
2006 - Matthew Leuenberger
2007 - Cale Morton

With the exception of Pavlich and Morton last year its a very disappointing lot.
Leuenberger may eventually live up to his hype so the jury is still out on him.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

Kennedy will be very very good once we've finished getting all the Carlton out of him.

 

[coasting]

Kennedy will be very very good once we've finished getting all the Carlton out of him.

Yeah I'm not so sure about that. There are times when it looks like he could take a game apart but he never really does.

Plus he is always injured.

Would be surprised if he was ever considered an elite CHF. Hope I'm wrong.

 

[Daytripper]

#6 isn't that much better

96 - John Rombotis
97 - James Walker
98 - Murray Vance
99 - Damien Cupido
00 - Dylan Smith
01 - Ashley Sampi
02 - Stephen Salopek
03 - Kepler Bradley
04 - Tom Williams
05 - Beau Dowler
06 - Mitch Thorp
07 - David Myers

 

[davemills]

1996 - Mark Kinnear
1997 - Mark Bolton
1998 - Ryan Fitzgerald
1999 - Matthew Pavlich ***
2000 - Luke Livingston
2001 - Graham Polak
2002 - Tim Walsh
2003 - Farren Ray
2004 - Richard Tambling
2005 - Josh Kennedy
2006 - Matthew Leuenberger
2007 - Cale Morton

With the exception of Pavlich and Morton last year its a very disappointing lot.
Leuenberger may eventually live up to his hype so the jury is still out on him.

Dissapointing from what most would hope to get from pick 4.

It is still to early to completley write off about 5 of those players how ever..though for most the clock is ticking.

Tambling for instance had a reasonable year last year and improved in many areas like consistency and defensive pressure. I would not be surprised at all if he becomes a fine player from here on in.

I can't really comment on Kennedy..but the little I saw of him made me think he is still a chance as well. What to the West Coast fans think?

 

[Brazen]

And it could continue... while there's potential in Vickery, touted to go 4 to Port, I just get this feeling he wont be a household name... but good luck to the kid to break the curse

 

[davemills]

#6 isn't that much better

96 - John Rombotis
97 - James Walker
98 - Murray Vance
99 - Damien Cupido
00 - Dylan Smith
01 - Ashley Sampi
02 - Stephen Salopek
03 - Kepler Bradley
04 - Tom Williams
05 - Beau Dowler
06 - Mitch Thorp
07 - David Myers

I would argue that it is in fact much worse.

 

[Brazen]

I would argue that it is in fact much worse.

yep - two whole picks worse

 

[Giggidy Giggidy]

It is still to early to completley write off about 5 of those players how ever..though for most the clock is ticking.

1997 - Mark Bolton
1998 - Ryan Fitzgerald
1999 - Matthew Pavlich ***
2000 - Luke Livingston
2001 - Graham Polak
2002 - Tim Walsh
2003 - Farren Ray
2004 - Richard Tambling
2005 - Josh Kennedy^
2006 - Matthew Leuenberger
2007 - Cale Morton

These are the only ones still at their original clubs, hence the only ones that a final decision cannot be made on IMO. You could hardly consider a draft pick to be successful if the benefit doesn't even go to the club that initially drafted them.

^ Kennedy's value as a #4 is still debatable as he contributed to getting Judd to Carlton

96 - John Rombotis
97 - James Walker
98 - Murray Vance
99 - Damien Cupido
00 - Dylan Smith
01 - Ashley Sampi
02 - Stephen Salopek
03 - Kepler Bradley
04 - Tom Williams
05 - Beau Dowler
06 - Mitch Thorp
07 - David Myers

Much worse..... Pavlich is the glaring difference. However 5 of the latest 6 still have the potential to reverse the trend and justify their selection to their club.

 

[Hearts to hearts]

Does Daniel Wells count as a #4?

And agree that #6 is worse, not a single player you'd cross the road for.

 

[Hollow Knight]

Leuenberger is a future star, don't you worry your pretty little heads about that.

 

[FFB1]

Does Daniel Wells count as a #4?

And agree that #6 is worse, not a single player you'd cross the road for.

Wasnt he drafted at nunber 2??

 

[Mofra]

Cale Morton will break the curse. Looked like a star in the making this year, Clayton rated him very highly as well ("equal to anyone in the draft").

 

[CROWS08]

Wasnt he drafted at nunber 2??

The Crows got number 4 from Richmond for Kane Johnson and then on traded that pick to the Roos for Carey.
This all happened before Carlton got caught for cheating the salary cap and banned from the draft. This then made the number 4 pick that the Crows traded the new number 2 pick, which the Roos used to pick Daniel Wells.
So you could make a good argument that he was a number 2 pick or a number 4 pick.

 

[davey_magik]

I'm hoping Cale will reverse the trend .

 

[Old Den]

Wasnt he drafted at nunber 2??

Refers to Carlton's 2 lost picks in that Draft - I think Carlton would have taken Wells and Goddard had they participated - Wells may have been No.1

 

[Colin Grigson]

1996 - Mark Kinnear
1997 - Mark Bolton
1998 - Ryan Fitzgerald
1999 - Matthew Pavlich ***
2000 - Luke Livingston
2001 - Graham Polak
2002 - Tim Walsh
2003 - Farren Ray
2004 - Richard Tambling
2005 - Josh Kennedy
2006 - Matthew Leuenberger
2007 - Cale Morton

With the exception of Pavlich and Morton last year its a very disappointing lot.
Leuenberger may eventually live up to his hype so the jury is still out on him.

I think you'll find that the drafting of Walsh, Ray and Tambling at pick 4 between 2002-2004, also coincides with the release years of the 'Lord of The Rings Trilogy'...

The upshot,

Crap films = Crap footballers.

 

[mi_hrvati]

Does Daniel Wells count as a #4?

And agree that #6 is worse, not a single player you'd cross the road for.

disagree, id cross the road for salopek, hes a gun. but your right in saying pick 4>>>>>>>>>>pick 6

 

[eathb]

this curse scares me.

 

[Bombers41]

2007- Jarrad Grant
2006- Travis Boak
2005- Scott Pendlebury
2004- Lance Franklin
2003- Brock McLean
2002- Jarrad McVeigh
2001- Xavier Clarke
2000- Andrew McDougall
1999- Leigh Brown
1998- Michael Stevens
1997- Luke Power
1996- Daniel McAlister

Fair to say that pick 5 went through a bit of rough period from 96 to 01 (bar of coarse L.Power) but has been on the money ever since, feel just that little bit more safer. Well not really but at least the stats are good.

 

[whelan=legend]

Morts bucking the trend there

Also Leuenberger will be a gun ruckman. Give him a few years.

 

[Schulzenfest]

Does Daniel Wells count as a #4?

And agree that #6 is worse, not a single player you'd cross the road for.

Watched Steve Salopek this year? I'd be happy if he played like he did this year for the rest of his career and he's only 23 so he could still get a lot better.

 

[Kerrby04]

no such thing as curse

pure luck based on opportunity given and injury free

 

[Schulzenfest]

Pick 7 was shit for a few years, but has been picking up some massive momentum in recent years

'99 Danny Roach
'00 Laurence Angwin
'01 David Hale (not a complete fail but you'd want better for pick 7, especially considering Jimmy Bartel went next)
'02 Andrew Mackie (picking up a bit of momentum)
'03 Kane Tenace (fail against the run of play)
'04 Jordan Lewis (momentum picking up again)
'05 Patrick Ryder (momentum still going)
'06 Joel Selwood (NAB Rising Star, probably future Brownlow medallist)
'07 Rhys Palmer (Two rising stars in a row)

Congratulations Brisbane, with (probably) Jack Ziebell, Hamish Hartlett or Steele Sidebottom to find their way to your club, you have a chance to continue this upwards trend.

 

[demonfan9]

Pick 1

1996 - Michael Gardiner
1997 - Travis Johnstone
1998 - Des Headland
1999 - Josh Fraser
2000 - Nick Riewoldt
2001 - Luke Hodge
2002 - Brendon Goddard
2003 - Adam Cooney
2004 - Brett Deledio
2005 - Marc Murphy
2006 - Bryce Gibbs
2007 - Matthew Kreuzer

Pick 2

1996 - Chris Heffernan
1997 - Brad Ottens
1998 - Justin Longmuir
1999 - Paul Hasleby
2000 - Justin Koschitzke
2001 - Luke Ball
2002 - Daniel Wells
2003 - Andrew Walker
2004 - Jarryd Roughead
2005 - Dale Thomas
2006 - Scott Gumbleton
2007 - Trent Cotchin

Pick 3

1996 - Rory Hilton
1997 - Trent Croad
1998 - Nic Fosdike
1999 - Aaron Fiora
2000 - Alan Didak
2001 - Chris Judd
2002 - Jarred Brennan
2003 - Colin Sylvia
2004 - Ryan Griffen
2005 - Xavier Ellis
2006 - Lachlan Hansen
2007 - Chris Masten

Pick 4

1996 - Mark Kinnear
1997 - Mark Bolton
1998 - Ryan Fitzgerald
1999 - Matthew Pavlich
2000 - Luke Livingston
2001 - Graham Polak
2002 - Tim Walsh
2003 - Farren Ray
2004 - Richard Tambling
2005 - Josh Kennedy
2006 - Matthew Leuenberger
2007 - Cale Morton

Pick 5

1996 - Daniel McAllister
1997 - Luke Power
1998 - Michael Stevens
1999 - Leigh Brown
2000 - Andrew McDougall
2001 - Xavier Clarke
2002 - Jarrad McVeigh
2003 - Brock McLean
2004 - Lance Franklin
2005 - Scott Pendlebury
2006 - Travis Boak
2007 - Jarrad Grant