Geelong lost to Carlton this year, I seriously doubt they would have troubled The Swans, even without the bye.
Look at the quality of personal between The Swans and Cats.
IMHO The Cats snuck into the Top 4 only because of their massive Kardinia Park home ground advantage, and were lucky to beat an bruised and aging Hawthorn in week one.
People on the Carlton board can tell you this, but I never once considered them to be a legit flag contender all year, there are simply too many battlers/plodders in that team to have posed a serious flag challenge.
Sydney lost to Richmond.. And Carlton got within a goal at the SCG. What's your point?