Autopsy "The Flu Game" - Bulldogs dismantle Freo

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Lindsay_Gilbee said:
This is a massive call, but he moves and defends like Corey Enright. Hopefully he’s half as good.
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Good call reg Enright comparison

He wears his shorts like Enright also
 
Munnez said:
Has the capability to bang on goals quickly if you don't mind him closely. Drags a defender away which helps to open up space in the Forward 50
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He's becoming a smart footballer too, loved the way yesterday when he deliberately did not take possession for his first goal, tapped it instead and drew a tackle resulting in a holding free and goal.

Always able to draw a free but are now legitimate and not the 50-50 lowering of the knees type. He makes defenders nervous and takes a good one to keep him quiet.

Am always confident when he has a set shot. Was a big "in" for us yesterday as was Richards.
 

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Iamspock said:
Well apparently, you only need to get about 7 possessions to get 3 votes, so he should be a monty for it 🤪
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Neale is not even in the best hundred players I've seen in the past 50 years+ across the entire league.

Bont is in the top 5.

Laughable that Neale has 2 Charlies. Absolutely laughable. In 10 years, no one will remember him, other than as a minor trivia footnote.
 
ScragCity said:
No; I think one conversation, in which a coach tells him that he needs to go harder, will change his entire personality and play style overnight.
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My sauces tell me there was a long discussion about this at high levels of the club but it was decided that young men of this era are very sensitive and that telling them to be tough might be psychologically inappropriate
 
Next Waiting said:
So here's an interesting table that illustrates something that may not be readily apparent

View attachment 2021063

Two of the biggest whipping boys on this site have at least one thing in common (on yesterday's stats anyway). 75% or more of their disposals are score involvements or part of a scoring chain. 3rd best is 64% and only 6 players exceed 50%.

If we're looking for indicators as to why some players continue to be selected this may be one of them.

That's not to say they can't improve in a number of areas, including volume possibly, but they seem to be part of our scoring.
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I haven't watched the replay yet so I can't yet comment on yesterday's VDM and Gallagher games from the eye test. These comments are either more generally about their season/career or an analysis of what the stats do/don't tell us.
  • Do you have these stats for the whole year? There can be so many anomalies when you only look at one game. For instance this was easily our highest scoring game for the year, so that's naturally going to boost everybody's SI stats, especially those playing midfield or forward. VDM's SI/D over this season is 35.6% which for half forward is probably just OK but nothing outstanding - do you have any solid benchmarks for what a good ratio would be? Rhylee West for instance is about 47% this year. Riley Garcia (who plays a bit more midfield/wing) is 28%.
  • I'm a fan of Gallagher and have been surprised at the level of criticism of him. Especially for a kid who has played only 14 games in his first injury-free season (on top of his first full pre-season). I think his main crime is simply that he gets selected. The average fan has no patience for a player who isn't an instant star, no matter how much potential they have.
  • Six disposals (only four of them effective) is not a great look for Gags on the stats sheet. On the other hand two goals is pretty good. Do that very week and you've earned your spot. The value of your disposal count and other related ratios really depends on what role you are being asked to play. Cody Weightman (1.77 goals a game) only averages 9.5 disposals but he's mostly a deep forward. Gags plays a different role and has been averaging over 13 disposals. Yesterday was easily his lowest disposal count for the season.
  • Enough on Gags. Let's look at VDM. He has a been a whipping boy here for ages and so we can't make the excuse that he's just starting out on his senior career. However on at least one measure he is having his best season yet. He has already played more games (14) than in any other of his 5 seasons. He has not however had his best season ever for any of the usual stats except Marks (up noticeably), Clangers (down noticeably) and perhaps DE% (up slightly). I could point to a number of areas where his 2024 averages are below his averages in earlier seasons. The eye test (when I've been able to watch) does suggest he is fumbling a little less this year. His fumbles used to be one of the biggest criticisms of him. That observation is consistent with his reduced rate of clangers and his improved DE%.
  • Also we have been told here that VDM is being assessed by Bevo/MC on some of the lesser published skills or stats, in particular "repeat sprints" and possibly "pressure acts". That may well be very important in the team dynamics and could be why he's seen to be fulfilling his role. However those stats weren't what you were posting about.
  • Why would Gags and VDM be at or near the top of the SI/D table? Clearly the main reason is because of the position they play. The whole top half of the table is occupied by players who spend some or all of their time in the forward half. Now if you can produce stats that show Gags and VDM have been top two in this stat all year, I'll be quite a bit more impressed. I'd expect VDM should be in the top 5-6 anyway, just because of the role he plays.
  • If instead of looking at SIs as a percentage of possessions/disposals you just looked at total SIs you would see that VDM was only equal 10th out of 23 players yesterday. Most of those below him are defenders or midfielders. That's not great for a player who is predominantly a forward (or high HF). Gags is even lower - he's equal 13th. But of course this is still just one game so we don't know how it stacks up over the whole season.
I'm not a VDM hater (although I am a hater of the term "hater") and if he's the best or only bloke who can fill a certain role that brings us regular wins, then I'm all for him keeping his spot. I just think his case is far from proven by these supposedly "inconvenient" stats that you posted.

Especially the stats from just one match. A resounding win where everything clicked for us.
 
BrisDog said:
Hopefully the team can win enough games for him so he can indulge on 3 votes rather than the obligatory 2 votes in a losing team.
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If he’s good enough in losing games he gets 3….well GAJ did in a 99pt loss v Coll at the Suns….still baffles me as to how in a loss that great, even with 40 touches, there aren’t at least 2 better players on the opposition side
 
geoffjennings79 said:
Neale is not even in the best hundred players I've seen in the past 50 years+ across the entire league.

Bont is in the top 5.

Laughable that Neale has 2 Charlies. Absolutely laughable. In 10 years, no one will remember him, other than as a minor trivia footnote.
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Sadly that's what the Brownlow has become. There's still lots of glitz, glamour and coverage. Arguably the red carpet and the low cut dresses have become more important than who wins the count!

But for those who are looking seriously for measures of who the most valuable players are in the AFL it's just a trivial sideshow. The AFLPA and AFLCA awards are already more highly regarded.
 
dogwatch said:
Sadly that's what the Brownlow has become. There's still lots of glitz, glamour and coverage. Arguably the red carpet and the low cut dresses have become more important than who wins the count!

But for those who are looking seriously for measures of who the most valuable players are in the AFL it's just a trivial sideshow. The AFLPA and AFLCA awards are already more highly regarded.
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To be fair to him, for every year he has been top three in the Brownlow (2019, 2020, 2022, 2023), he has been top five in the AFLCA coaches votes.

Think over the last 15 years that the AFLCA has probably been the worst at picking the player of the season.

Year - Brownlow - AFLCA - AFLPA

2023 - Neale - Butters - Bontempelli
2022 - Cripps - Miller/Oliver - Brayshaw
2021 - Wines - Oliver - Bontempelli
2020 - Neale - Neale - Neale
2019 - Fyfe - Bontempelli - Cripps
2018 - Mitchell - Gawn - Mitchell
2017 - Martin - Martin - Martin
2016 - Dangerfield - Dangerfield - Dangerfield
2015 - Fyfe - Hannebery - Fyfe
2014 - Priddis - Gray - Fyfe
2013 - Ablett - Pendlebury - Ablett
2012 - Watson* - Cotchin - Ablett
2011 - Swan - Murphy - Judd
2010 - Judd - Swan - Swan
2009 - Ablett - Ablett - Ablett

In general, I don’t think 3-2-1 and 5-4-3-2-1 voting systems are the best way to judge a players season. You look at the Bont performances against Collingwood and Fremantle. Otherworldly type games but it’s only worth 3 votes. Someone in the GWS-PA rock fight is going to get 3 votes as well. Then obviously you could get a case like Heeney this year (who knows how many votes he’ll be on), but he has probably been one of the best five players on the ground for 11 of their 13 games this year but if Warner, Gulden and others are taking a decent chunk of those threes it opens the door for a Wines 2021, Neale 2023 type scenario to go passed him where they are just taking all the maximum votes because none of their team mates are polling.
 

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dogwatch said:
I haven't watched the replay yet so I can't yet comment on yesterday's VDM and Gallagher games from the eye test. These comments are either more generally about their season/career or an analysis of what the stats do/don't tell us.
  • Do you have these stats for the whole year? There can be so many anomalies when you only look at one game. For instance this was easily our highest scoring game for the year, so that's naturally going to boost everybody's SI stats, especially those playing midfield or forward. VDM's SI/D over this season is 35.6% which for half forward is probably just OK but nothing outstanding - do you have any solid benchmarks for what a good ratio would be? Rhylee West for instance is about 47% this year. Riley Garcia (who plays a bit more midfield/wing) is 28%.
  • I'm a fan of Gallagher and have been surprised at the level of criticism of him. Especially for a kid who has played only 14 games in his first injury-free season (on top of his first full pre-season). I think his main crime is simply that he gets selected. The average fan has no patience for a player who isn't an instant star, no matter how much potential they have.
  • Six disposals (only four of them effective) is not a great look for Gags on the stats sheet. On the other hand two goals is pretty good. Do that very week and you've earned your spot. The value of your disposal count and other related ratios really depends on what role you are being asked to play. Cody Weightman (1.77 goals a game) only averages 9.5 disposals but he's mostly a deep forward. Gags plays a different role and has been averaging over 13 disposals. Yesterday was easily his lowest disposal count for the season.
  • Enough on Gags. Let's look at VDM. He has a been a whipping boy here for ages and so we can't make the excuse that he's just starting out on his senior career. However on at least one measure he is having his best season yet. He has already played more games (14) than in any other of his 5 seasons. He has not however had his best season ever for any of the usual stats except Marks (up noticeably), Clangers (down noticeably) and perhaps DE% (up slightly). I could point to a number of areas where his 2024 averages are below his averages in earlier seasons. The eye test (when I've been able to watch) does suggest he is fumbling a little less this year. His fumbles used to be one of the biggest criticisms of him. That observation is consistent with his reduced rate of clangers and his improved DE%.
  • Also we have been told here that VDM is being assessed by Bevo/MC on some of the lesser published skills or stats, in particular "repeat sprints" and possibly "pressure acts". That may well be very important in the team dynamics and could be why he's seen to be fulfilling his role. However those stats weren't what you were posting about.
  • Why would Gags and VDM be at or near the top of the SI/D table? Clearly the main reason is because of the position they play. The whole top half of the table is occupied by players who spend some or all of their time in the forward half. Now if you can produce stats that show Gags and VDM have been top two in this stat all year, I'll be quite a bit more impressed. I'd expect VDM should be in the top 5-6 anyway, just because of the role he plays.
  • If instead of looking at SIs as a percentage of possessions/disposals you just looked at total SIs you would see that VDM was only equal 10th out of 23 players yesterday. Most of those below him are defenders or midfielders. That's not great for a player who is predominantly a forward (or high HF). Gags is even lower - he's equal 13th. But of course this is still just one game so we don't know how it stacks up over the whole season.
I'm not a VDM hater (although I am a hater of the term "hater") and if he's the best or only bloke who can fill a certain role that brings us regular wins, then I'm all for him keeping his spot. I just think his case is far from proven by these supposedly "inconvenient" stats that you posted.

Especially the stats from just one match. A resounding win where everything clicked for us.
Click to expand...
I selectively did the stats (and invented a couple) for one game (yesterday's) looking for something that isn't necessarily published as a possible indicator of why he is continually selected in spite of a general consensus that he isn't that good.

He's just fast or does repeat sprints must be too simplistic as a justification for or a criticism of his inclusion. Where does he repeat sprint to or why is far more interesting. As part of what is arguably our best performance of the year, what is it that he adds to the mix when we play well?.....and we played well.

He doesn't have high numbers for disposals or much else but there was a disproportionate correlation between a couple of indicators in a good team performance.

The heat maps were interesting. The part of the ground that he sprints to most regularly, none of our other players go to with any regularity at all. So is part of his role to make the ground bigger quickly by providing a sprinting option into that right half fwd wing space. We usually go left or centre but he can stretch the ground and defence by being an option sprinting to the right wing/half fwd area. And he almost always plays on quickly when he gets it there. Wheels boundary side, runs his measure and kicks I50 before the defense can gather itself. And IMO he's a much better kick than he's given credit for.

If he's not there, he's probably sprinting toward the left fwd pocket to help lock the ball in. He also spent 100% of his time in the fwd half of the ground.

There is little research beyond yesterday's stats to support where I'm suggesting his value is. It's a working theory at this stage.

Interestingly, the 3 players who operate near but not in his area are JUH, Macrae and Gallagher. Macrae closer to the centre and further back. Gallagher similar. JUH a little further back than VDM or a lot more forward. Surprisingly, Macrae did not have a possession on the left side of the ground between hf and the D50 but is a natural left footer and was a regular in left wing forays in days gone by. The seemingly long neglected right side of the ground might be evolving.
 
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Saw Luke Ryan after the match who caught a cab where I was waiting to be picked up. Doggie supporters were there and were very nice to him and wished him well. I had no idea who he was until I looked up the pics of the Fremantle players. It's almost like they live in another universe to me. Yes, I remember what it was like living in Perth for a year. A whole damn year. Ugh.

On SM-A135F using BigFooty.com mobile app
 
Next Waiting said:
I selectively did the stats (and invented a couple) for one game (yesterday's) looking for something that isn't necessarily published as a possible indicator of why he is continually selected in spite of a general consensus that he isn't that good.

He's just fast or does repeat sprints must be too simplistic as a justification for or a criticism of his inclusion. Where does he repeat sprint to or why is far more interesting. As part of what is arguably our best performance of the year, what is it that he adds to the mix when we play well?.....and we played well.

He doesn't have high numbers for disposals or much else but there was a disproportionate correlation between a couple of indicators in a good team performance.

The heat maps were interesting. The part of the ground that he sprints to most regularly, none of our other players go to with any regularity at all. So is part of his role to make the ground bigger quickly by providing a sprinting option into that right half fwd wing space. We usually go left or centre but he can stretch the ground and defence by being an option sprinting to the right wing/half fwd area. And he almost always plays on quickly when he gets it there. Wheels boundary side, runs his measure and kicks I50 before the defense can gather itself. And IMO he's a much better kick than he's given credit for.

If he's not there, he's probably sprinting toward the left fwd pocket to help lock the ball in. He also spent 100% of his time in the fwd half of the ground.

There is little research beyond yesterday's stats to support where I'm suggesting his value is. It's a working theory at this stage.

Interestingly, the 3 players who operate near but not in his area are JUH, Macrae and Gallagher. Macrae closer to the centre and further back. Gallagher similar. JUH a little further back than VDM or a lot more forward. Surprisingly, Macrae did not have a possession on the left side of the ground between hf and the D50 but is a natural left footer and was a regular in left wing forays in days gone by. The seemingly long neglected right side of the ground might be evolving.
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I had a look at the match replay.

As you noted, VDM didn't get a lot of it. However when he did he was pretty sound with it. This was much better than his wasteful efforts against Brisbane. Unless he is camped permanently outside the 50 he ought to be kicking a few more goals, but I guess that will come with experience.

Obviously it's hard to tell what players are doing off the ball when you only see it on TV but I accept he was probably doing plenty of running.

So I see no reason for him to be left out of the side. He's doing enough at the moment.

It was clear that a few players were positioning themselves according to instructions - the tall defenders playing in front, VDM keeping his width, Freijah as sweeper, etc. Simple concepts, but the commentators didn't seem to get it. Or didn't want to talk about it. They mostly just follow whatever the camera shows, and with pretty shallow analysis.
 
Watching the game again, I reckon the player I most underappreciated live was Rhylee West.

To repeatedly thwart their biggest rebounding/intercepting threat (and a bigger player) in Luke Ryan and generally work his butt off super intelligently was outstanding. His 4 goals was a lovely bonus.

His best game for us and about as good as it gets for a small forward.
 
Chicago1 said:
Saw Luke Ryan after the match who caught a cab where I was waiting to be picked up. Doggie supporters were there and were very nice to him and wished him well. I had no idea who he was until I looked up the pics of the Fremantle players. It's almost like they live in another universe to me. Yes, I remember what it was like living in Perth for a year. A whole damn year. Ugh.

On SM-A135F using BigFooty.com mobile app
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Surprising they weren’t hurling abuse at him….he had a terrible SuperCoach score 😜
 
dogwatch said:
I had a look at the match replay.

As you noted, VDM didn't get a lot of it. However when he did he was pretty sound with it. This was much better than his wasteful efforts against Brisbane. Unless he is camped permanently outside the 50 he ought to be kicking a few more goals, but I guess that will come with experience.

Obviously it's hard to tell what players are doing off the ball when you only see it on TV but I accept he was probably doing plenty of running.

So I see no reason for him to be left out of the side. He's doing enough at the moment.

It was clear that a few players were positioning themselves according to instructions - the tall defenders playing in front, VDM keeping his width, Freijah as sweeper, etc. Simple concepts, but the commentators didn't seem to get it. Or didn't want to talk about it. They mostly just follow whatever the camera shows, and with pretty shallow analysis.
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Sounds like a lot of “supporters” on here too DW
 
grassman75 said:
Sounds like a lot of “supporters” on here too DW
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Fortunately, there are more than a couple of posters on this board who will explore and consider theories or seek explanations for things that don't fall into the simplistic and the bleedingly obvious boxes that satisfy most commentatoes and many "analysts". Some of those same posters will even peer review the theories of other posters and point out any short comings in their databases and/or conclusions, drawn or implied;)
 
How good is it to have Ed & Cody back? They give us the fire power we lacked last week.'I just feel privileged to have them both at the club.

Re Ed, thank you Carlton ;)

Re Cody, Quite happy we missed out on Kosi in that draft :)




Bonts that kid in the schoolyard who the teacher pulls aside and says, "Look, we love watching you play, but do you reckon you could ease up a bit? You're embarrassing the other kids..."
 
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GetDimmaBack said:
Re Cody, Quite happy we missed out on Kosi in that draft :)
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Pickett has some freakish skill but I hate the general d’head behaviour. Has taken on his uncle’s love of a cheap hit.

Cody is probably a little bit less skilled (not by much) and not quite as quick but would be dramatically less likely to get suspended on the eve of a final. Has a higher goal per game average too.

Would certainly not do a swap.
 
Doggy said:
The "6 things we learned" article on the AFL website is all about Fremantle's inability to win after a bye going back a few years. Barely anything about the dogs.
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The definition of insanity is going back to AFLMedia and expecting it to have finally risen to a level of competence.
 

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Autopsy "The Flu Game" - Bulldogs dismantle Freo

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