Autopsy "The Flu Game" - Bulldogs dismantle Freo

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Can we all chip in to buy Liam Jones a new pair of boots with longer studs? I reckon him falling over has been directly responsible for 20 goals against this season. Two yesterday alone! Get the man some new boots
This has always been part of his game.

Liam Jones is the equivalent of a 1960's Muscle car.

Very fast in a straight line. Not so good when it comes to cornering.
 
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Pickett has some freakish skill but I hate the general d’head behaviour. Has taken on his uncle’s love of a cheap hit.

Cody is probably a little bit less skilled (not by much) and not quite as quick but would be dramatically less likely to get suspended on the eve of a final. Has a higher goal per game average too.

Would certainly not do a swap.

Kozsie is better defensively, but Cody has better forward craft. He’s also more likely to kick a bag of goals: Cody’s kicked 4+ goals 8x in 67 games, compared to Kozzie’s 4x in 96 games.
 

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Kozsie is better defensively, but Cody has better forward craft. He’s also more likely to kick a bag of goals: Cody’s kicked 4+ goals 8x in 67 games, compared to Kozzie’s 4x in 96 games.
Cody makes the absolute best of his ability but he’s not all that quick for a small forward. It’s not often that noticeable because he works hard and thinks quick but Pickett would have him covered athletically.

Cody is very smart though. A few recruiters said he was the most AFL ready drafted of his draft. Ultra professional.
 
Coaches votes

Western Bulldogs v Fremantle​

10 Marcus Bontempelli (WB)
7 Bailey Dale (WB)
5 Adam Treloar (WB)
4 Tom Liberatore (WB)
3 Lachie Bramble (WB)
1 Rory Lobb (WB)
 
Coaches votes

Western Bulldogs v Fremantle​

10 Marcus Bontempelli (WB)
7 Bailey Dale (WB)
5 Adam Treloar (WB)
4 Tom Liberatore (WB)
3 Lachie Bramble (WB)
1 Rory Lobb (WB)
I'm struggling to think where the votes have gone here, especially with the 5,4,3 sequence and Dale scoring 7. I can only assume there was a couple zeros given? Possibly something like the below with Bevo left, Longmuire right?

10 Marcus Bontempelli (WB) (5+5)
7 Bailey Dale (WB) (3+4)
5 Adam Treloar (WB) (4+1)
4 Tom Liberatore (WB) (2+2)
3 Lachie Bramble (WB) (0+3)
1 Rory Lobb (WB) (1+0)

Or option 2:
10 Marcus Bontempelli (WB) (5+5)
7 Bailey Dale (WB) (4+3)
5 Adam Treloar (WB) (1+4)
4 Tom Liberatore (WB) (2+2)
3 Lachie Bramble (WB) (3+0)
1 Rory Lobb (WB) (0+1)
 
I'm struggling to think where the votes have gone here, especially with the 5,4,3 sequence and Dale scoring 7. I can only assume there was a couple zeros given? Possibly something like the below with Bevo left, Longmuire right?

10 Marcus Bontempelli (WB) (5+5)
7 Bailey Dale (WB) (3+4)
5 Adam Treloar (WB) (4+1)
4 Tom Liberatore (WB) (2+2)
3 Lachie Bramble (WB) (0+3)
1 Rory Lobb (WB) (1+0)

Or option 2:
10 Marcus Bontempelli (WB) (5+5)
7 Bailey Dale (WB) (4+3)
5 Adam Treloar (WB) (1+4)
4 Tom Liberatore (WB) (2+2)
3 Lachie Bramble (WB) (3+0)
1 Rory Lobb (WB) (0+1)
I reckon option 2 is more likely based on Bev's unprompted praise for our high defenders in the presser.
 
Cody makes the absolute best of his ability but he’s not all that quick for a small forward. It’s not often that noticeable because he works hard and thinks quick but Pickett would have him covered athletically.

Cody is very smart though. A few recruiters said he was the most AFL ready drafted of his draft. Ultra professional.
That shows in his quick recovery from the elbow surgery. Should have been out up too another two weeks, so diligent in his rehab made it back earlier. And is so dangerous that he drags a defender with him
 

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That shows in his quick recovery from the elbow surgery. Should have been out up too another two weeks, so diligent in his rehab made it back earlier. And is so dangerous that he drags a defender with him
Cody is an incredibly underrated player. In another side & system that doesn’t have the talls we do, he has every chance of becoming a perennial 50 goal a year player.

We’ll probably ask him to focus on other areas of his games and he’ll settle into a 35-40 goal player.
 
Cody is an incredibly underrated player. In another side & system that doesn’t have the talls we do, he has every chance of becoming a perennial 50 goal a year player.

We’ll probably ask him to focus on other areas of his games and he’ll settle into a 35-40 goal player.
It’s clear he is a medium forward, not a crumbing small. One of the bigger blokes, most likely Naughton need to be pushing up consistently so that he can have some to operate.
 
To be fair to him, for every year he has been top three in the Brownlow (2019, 2020, 2022, 2023), he has been top five in the AFLCA coaches votes.

Think over the last 15 years that the AFLCA has probably been the worst at picking the player of the season.

Year - Brownlow - AFLCA - AFLPA

2023 - Neale - Butters - Bontempelli
2022 - Cripps - Miller/Oliver - Brayshaw
2021 - Wines - Oliver - Bontempelli
2020 - Neale - Neale - Neale
2019 - Fyfe - Bontempelli - Cripps
2018 - Mitchell - Gawn - Mitchell
2017 - Martin - Martin - Martin
2016 - Dangerfield - Dangerfield - Dangerfield
2015 - Fyfe - Hannebery - Fyfe
2014 - Priddis - Gray - Fyfe
2013 - Ablett - Pendlebury - Ablett
2012 - Watson* - Cotchin - Ablett
2011 - Swan - Murphy - Judd
2010 - Judd - Swan - Swan
2009 - Ablett - Ablett - Ablett

In general, I don’t think 3-2-1 and 5-4-3-2-1 voting systems are the best way to judge a players season. You look at the Bont performances against Collingwood and Fremantle. Otherworldly type games but it’s only worth 3 votes. Someone in the GWS-PA rock fight is going to get 3 votes as well. Then obviously you could get a case like Heeney this year (who knows how many votes he’ll be on), but he has probably been one of the best five players on the ground for 11 of their 13 games this year but if Warner, Gulden and others are taking a decent chunk of those threes it opens the door for a Wines 2021, Neale 2023 type scenario to go passed him where they are just taking all the maximum votes because none of their team mates are polling.

It’s going to be difficult for Bont to win one from here I think, unless we make the top four in one of the next couple of years and he has a good year. We don’t win enough games, one of the most annoying things about the capitulation in the last three H&A games of 2021 was that it denied Bont his Brownlow. Wines? He wasn’t on the same planet as Bont, Oliver and Petracca that year. But he only really had Boak taking votes off him, with Butters and Rozee still emerging.

I’d be pretty surprised if he wasn’t almost universally considered as the best player in the comp by his peers right now. Daicos is an absolute talent, and the Sydney mids look awesome this year, but Bont has been the best (or one of the top 3-5 at least) for 5 years plus.

I’m not a fan of Dangerfield in the media, but last year he did a segment of a Ch.7 game when he was asked to name his top three players in the game. I forget who he had at 3, but he had Daicos at 2 and then Bont at 1. He said something like “he’s definitely number one, and I’m not sure it’s that close”. Was nice to agree with something he said for once.
 
Cody is an incredibly underrated player. In another side & system that doesn’t have the talls we do, he has every chance of becoming a perennial 50 goal a year player.

We’ll probably ask him to focus on other areas of his games and he’ll settle into a 35-40 goal player.

If he stays healthy he'll be AA as soon as next year.
 
I haven't watched the replay yet so I can't yet comment on yesterday's VDM and Gallagher games from the eye test. These comments are either more generally about their season/career or an analysis of what the stats do/don't tell us.
  • Do you have these stats for the whole year? There can be so many anomalies when you only look at one game. For instance this was easily our highest scoring game for the year, so that's naturally going to boost everybody's SI stats, especially those playing midfield or forward. VDM's SI/D over this season is 35.6% which for half forward is probably just OK but nothing outstanding - do you have any solid benchmarks for what a good ratio would be? Rhylee West for instance is about 47% this year. Riley Garcia (who plays a bit more midfield/wing) is 28%.
  • I'm a fan of Gallagher and have been surprised at the level of criticism of him. Especially for a kid who has played only 14 games in his first injury-free season (on top of his first full pre-season). I think his main crime is simply that he gets selected. The average fan has no patience for a player who isn't an instant star, no matter how much potential they have.
  • Six disposals (only four of them effective) is not a great look for Gags on the stats sheet. On the other hand two goals is pretty good. Do that very week and you've earned your spot. The value of your disposal count and other related ratios really depends on what role you are being asked to play. Cody Weightman (1.77 goals a game) only averages 9.5 disposals but he's mostly a deep forward. Gags plays a different role and has been averaging over 13 disposals. Yesterday was easily his lowest disposal count for the season.
  • Enough on Gags. Let's look at VDM. He has a been a whipping boy here for ages and so we can't make the excuse that he's just starting out on his senior career. However on at least one measure he is having his best season yet. He has already played more games (14) than in any other of his 5 seasons. He has not however had his best season ever for any of the usual stats except Marks (up noticeably), Clangers (down noticeably) and perhaps DE% (up slightly). I could point to a number of areas where his 2024 averages are below his averages in earlier seasons. The eye test (when I've been able to watch) does suggest he is fumbling a little less this year. His fumbles used to be one of the biggest criticisms of him. That observation is consistent with his reduced rate of clangers and his improved DE%.
  • Also we have been told here that VDM is being assessed by Bevo/MC on some of the lesser published skills or stats, in particular "repeat sprints" and possibly "pressure acts". That may well be very important in the team dynamics and could be why he's seen to be fulfilling his role. However those stats weren't what you were posting about.
  • Why would Gags and VDM be at or near the top of the SI/D table? Clearly the main reason is because of the position they play. The whole top half of the table is occupied by players who spend some or all of their time in the forward half. Now if you can produce stats that show Gags and VDM have been top two in this stat all year, I'll be quite a bit more impressed. I'd expect VDM should be in the top 5-6 anyway, just because of the role he plays.
  • If instead of looking at SIs as a percentage of possessions/disposals you just looked at total SIs you would see that VDM was only equal 10th out of 23 players yesterday. Most of those below him are defenders or midfielders. That's not great for a player who is predominantly a forward (or high HF). Gags is even lower - he's equal 13th. But of course this is still just one game so we don't know how it stacks up over the whole season.
I'm not a VDM hater (although I am a hater of the term "hater") and if he's the best or only bloke who can fill a certain role that brings us regular wins, then I'm all for him keeping his spot. I just think his case is far from proven by these supposedly "inconvenient" stats that you posted.

Especially the stats from just one match. A resounding win where everything clicked for us.
In defence of VDM, on the eye, it looks like he has improved his skills. He has scored and provided a number of goal assists repeatedly. To me he is on the up, though I do understand why he is a whipping boy. He does make some huge clangers but as you say, this is probably his best season so far. His running is also valuable but not easily seen from a mere spectator point of view. He must be doing something right that makes the coaches happy.
 
I think that Timmy is finally getting sick of being pushed around. Just need him to get a bit angry and he will improve again.

The beast inside might just be awakening. After he sat down Dunkley last week, he got his address from Treloar and sent him a bouquet of flowers. Didn’t know he had that snide in him!!

Very good follow up this week, so hopefully the bye doesn’t stop his momentum, as Xerri is a combative ruck who will throw his weight around in our next game.
 
In defence of VDM, on the eye, it looks like he has improved his skills. He has scored and provided a number of goal assists repeatedly. To me he is on the up, though I do understand why he is a whipping boy. He does make some huge clangers but as you say, this is probably his best season so far. His running is also valuable but not easily seen from a mere spectator point of view. He must be doing something right that makes the coaches happy.
Have been watching him live at our home games this year. He's not perfect but he has a few tricks. His kicking gets knocked alot on here but i think his howlers just stick out a bit more. His signature blind floater over the defender from about 70m out that someone leads about 30m in the pocket has happened too many times to be conicidence. He seems to understand and adhere to the structure both defensively/offensively. He was quite heavy into Clark for the Freo game (McCrae was too).

Not certain he makes it but as far as serviceable clubman go, I've seen worse. You can't stack every position with A grade talent.

Some other interesting things I noticed:
•Buku getting an absolute spray from Jamarra for not lowering his eyes going in 50.
•Bramble has been getting alot of close checking this year, didn't against Freo.
•The pack crumbing setup from our small forwards was really evident to see.
 
It’s going to be difficult for Bont to win one from here I think, unless we make the top four in one of the next couple of years and he has a good year. We don’t win enough games, one of the most annoying things about the capitulation in the last three H&A games of 2021 was that it denied Bont his Brownlow. Wines? He wasn’t on the same planet as Bont, Oliver and Petracca that year. But he only really had Boak taking votes off him, with Butters and Rozee still emerging.

I’d be pretty surprised if he wasn’t almost universally considered as the best player in the comp by his peers right now. Daicos is an absolute talent, and the Sydney mids look awesome this year, but Bont has been the best (or one of the top 3-5 at least) for 5 years plus.

I’m not a fan of Dangerfield in the media, but last year he did a segment of a Ch.7 game when he was asked to name his top three players in the game. I forget who he had at 3, but he had Daicos at 2 and then Bont at 1. He said something like “he’s definitely number one, and I’m not sure it’s that close”. Was nice to agree with something he said for once.
I think Danger said he's number 1 and it's not (even) close.

General agreement amongst coaches, playing peers, commentatoes and fans that he's the best player in the competition with Daicos and Reid looming.

I reckon Bont would care less about the Brownlow than I do......and that's not at all.
AFLCA and AFLPA are noteworthy acknowledgements from those who know. He's got 3 of them and one of a select few with multiples.

It's all about flags and Norms from here on in....if it ever wasn't.
 
Pathetic that we have to win 13 games to make finals in order for Bont to get enough votes. What other player is held to that standard.

Carlton didn’t even make finals in 2022, in fact they lost their last four games of the season, but guess who still polled in those last four losses.
 
The beast inside might just be awakening. After he sat down Dunkley last week, he got his address from Treloar and sent him a bouquet of flowers. Didn’t know he had that snide in him!!

Very good follow up this week, so hopefully the bye doesn’t stop his momentum, as Xerri is a combative ruck who will throw his weight around in our next game.

Are you blokes taking the piss !
His game around the ground was good ,that’s not his problem.
But seriously Darcy made him look like an u16 in ruck contests.
 

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Autopsy "The Flu Game" - Bulldogs dismantle Freo

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