The Iowa Thread

[Qsaint]

In terms of national convention delegates, does anyone know if it's proportional or winner-takes-all?

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/02/delegate.explainer/index.html

A Democratic Candidate needs to win 2025 Deligates out of 4000 odd

 

[Qsaint]

Isn't polling saying that Obama is ahead so far in New Hampshire?

His anti-war stance is stronger than Clinton's - and that's a big issue in NH.

Latest Poll Neck and Neck, perhaps a trend is developing though that Clintons vote is overstated, and edwards understated

 

[Elle]

Clinton will most likely win New Hampshire, but if Obama finishes ahead of Edwards then he goes into Michigan which is the first state with a significant black population (15%). Huge chance now.

Obama isn't on the Michigan primary ballot. He withdrew along with Edwards, Richardson and Biden.

 

[MightyFighting]

Obama isn't on the Michigan primary ballot. He withdrew along with Edwards, Richardson and Biden.

Why?

 

[Hollow Knight]

Wow, more women voted for Obama than Clinton.

That is another feather in Obama's cap, and gives him even more legitimacy.

 

[Dixie Flatline]

Clinton struggling to close on Edwards - margin out to 9 delegates now, with only 8% left to report.

 

[CharlieG]

Obama isn't on the Michigan primary ballot. He withdrew along with Edwards, Richardson and Biden.

I wasn't aware of that. Silly move - if the Michigan delegates do end up going to the Convention (for MF's benefit, they're currently banned because the Michigan Democratic Party breached national rules by moving their primary into January), then they've handed a very large state to Clinton.

They'd better hope that the DNC holds its nerve.

 

[Qsaint]

Why?

Exactly Michigan is right next to Illinos and borders on the biggest city in the reason Obamaville, previously known as Chicago

 

[Qsaint]

Exit Polls suggest the most important reason for Republicans to select a candidate was not the Economy, not the pending recesion or subprime crisis, nor the war in Iraq. It was those pesky Mexican illegal immigrants.

Chuck Norris 1 other republicans 0


On to N H

 

[camsmith]

Who is "we" Cam? Were you fighting in a past life, or are you more than 80 years old? WWII was justified and has nothing in common in any way, shape or form of course.

"We" the allies which my home nation was a part of.

No it wouldn't. It would cost much less. No war in Iraq means a stop to the frightful financial cost of course.

So when the radical Islamists start rising in Iraq after the coalition leave we just sit back and let them be? We need to sort the situation out NOW not in 10 years when its in shambles.

On which issues? Are you taking all of the issues that are important to me into account, such as previous White House experience and electability, or only some of them?

Social issues. He has experience, he shares your values on almost everything.

If we wanted White House "experience" we'd have Dick Cheney running against Al Gore. Its about more than just white house experience.

Bet you love hearing Obama tell everyone how she was 'just like Bush'

Al-Qaeda was in Afghanistan were not Iraq before the war in Iraq began, and of course I think it's a bad thing to have created Sunni and Shi'ite militias because it further divides Iraqi's. The very militias that the US military only recently condemned.

That's your opinion. My opinion is that creating these religiously divided militias amongst Iraq's is going to be problematic in the future. The extra money spent in funding the surge has temporarily reduced violence, although currently Pakistan is more of a danger and more of a problem than Iraq ever was. The war in Iraq has created that problem.

Members of Al Qaeda were in Iraq before the war started.

The war in Iraq has created the problems in Pakistan? Thats a stretch. Al Qaeda is losing in Iraq so of course they are going about other ways to make headlines etc.. Its all part of out fight against these radicals. The fight you just want to leave in Iraq.

Whatever you believe, Petraeus has done his job well. His mission was to limit violence, step up the fight and take it to al-Qaeda and he has done all of the above. You may not like him or the war, but you can't deny how well is doing his mission.

Why do away with the polls? You asked if I was "obsessed" with polls, and I said that I am not obsessed with them, or anything else for that matter. I do take notice of them though, and I have no intention of ignoring them.

Because Americans dont know what is happening in Iraq. Most get their information from the MSM who are totally against the war.

Where did I say that "in the next sentence?" I didn't do any such thing. I think it's more reasonable to point out what someone has actually written, and not what you incorrectly think someone may write in the future. Don't you agree?

Its an observation of the past.

Goodness me. If Americans had any idea that it would cost as much, or drag on as it has, with years still to come, then it would never have begun in the first place. Al-Qaeda and the Taliban thriving and growing as they are, and the instability in Iran is the direct result of the war in Iraq.

Are you trying to say that al-Qaeda and the Taliban are not in fact thriving in Pakistan? Are you trying to say that Afghanistan is stable? Are you trying to say that Iran is not a problem? To say that mainstream news is a propaganda machine is being ridiculous.

Thats all retrospective. Al-Qaeda aren't thriving, their attention seeking and pleading in the latest tapes to the Iraqi people not to be friendly with the US proves it. As does the low violence.

No, no, no, no it isn't.

Signs of progress after nearly five years of this with years still to come? Corrupt and dysfunctional Iraqi government, divided religious militias, instability in Afghanistan, Iran and Pakistan which is far more of a problem that Iraq ever was, is a direct result of Bush's war.

Some wars take a while if winning is the aim. It would be simple if you wanted to lose, and short.

For the hundreth time, this isn't Bush's war, the US congress voted for it and it has the backing of many of nations around the world.

This is the web site that has McCain 2% ahead of Clinton, although Clinton has been ahead for the previous six months. It shows state-by-state trends, but if Clinton and McCain were their respective party's nominations, then I would expect it to change significantly yet again because McCain simply doesn't have the money that Clinton has to run the best campaign.

You're underestimating how many people dislike Clinton. Money can't buy you love

 

[Qsaint]

"
You're underestimatinghow many people dislike Clinton. Money can't buy you love

Thats what I've been saying, If she can't win the white Zindafel Yuppies in NH I reckon she is almost gone

 

[Juddism]

we've got Huckabee being promoted by Chuck Norris, another hopeful that is a Law & Order actor, some old bat that is riding on the coat tails of her husband and former President and a ex NY governor that rides on the tragedy of 9/11.

and this is democracy's "shining" light...

wouldn't vote for any of them except Obama.

 

[camsmith]

Wow, more women voted for Obama than Clinton.

That is another feather in Obama's cap, and gives him even more legitimacy.

Last I heard alot more African Americans voted for Clinton than predicted. This could be thanks to Bill but it is as surprising as women voting for Obama over Clinton.

Exit Polls suggest the most important reason for to select a candidate was not the Economy, not the pending recesion or subprime crisis, nor the war in Iraq. It was those pesky Mexican illegal immigrants.

Chuck Norris 1 other republicans 0


On to N H

Thats strange because that was Romney's strongest issue.

 

[campbell]

The stand by your man at all costs for the power and money hasn't helped her with the female voter either.

 

[Qsaint]

Thats strange because that was Romney's strongest issue.

Perhaps because they didn't want to say I hate Mormons? There is a few macinations at work here I'd say

 

[camsmith]

Thats what I've been saying, If she can't win the white Zindafel Yuppies in NH I reckon she is almost gone

Well, I thought that would be be an easy win to Clinton but I guess this Iowa win and possible 3rd place finish to Clinton could change that.

But all month and really all year it has been Clinton in the +10 kind of area. Hard to see all that consistent support change.

On the GOP side, McCain is obviously the big winner and if he goes onto win NH look out!

 

[Dixie Flatline]

we've got Huckabee being promoted by Chuck Norris, another hopeful that is a Law & Order actor, some old bat that is riding on the coat tails of her husband and former President and a ex NY governor that rides on the tragedy of 9/11.

and this is democracy's "shining" light...

wouldn't vote for any of them except Obama.

To be fair to Fred Dalton Thompson, he has been a senator for Tennessee before he went into acting. He's also paid US$100,000 per episode for about five minutes' air-time. He's slipped behind McCain, though, in Iowa.

Looks like Clinton is going to run third behind Edwards. The gap is out to 11 delegates.

 

[CharlieG]

Chris Dodd has dropped out of the race. It'll be interesting to see who gets his endorsement - probably Clinton.

 

[camsmith]

Perhaps because they didn't want to say I hate Mormons? There is a few macinations at work here I'd say

Yeah maybe, although I think many evangelicals are more likely voting FOR the baptist minister than AGAINST a Mormon. I know some hate Mormons but I think its more a case of voting for 'one of our own' than against the evil Mormon. I think even if Romney wasn't a Mormon the nubers would have been similar.

Pat Buchanan and Pat Robertson have both had great results there which shows that religion is a big issue there and that almost 40% of the turnout this year was from people who class themselves as Evangelical Christians.. thats not good for Romney but pretty much what won it for Hucks.

That's why I was always baffled to why Romney spent to much in Iowa. It was always going to be hard in that state above ALL states yet he invests a shit load into it.. why? He fought fire with fire and came of second best and now is going to struggle unless he has a real good second in NH (or unlikely as it is now, wins it)

 

[Qsaint]

South Carolina won't be good for him either, I'd say if NH is alright he'll keep going though. Huckabee could run out of cash or fold at any moment

 

[CharlieG]

Ok. The delegates to the national convention are distributed proportionally across Democrats that win 15% of the vote in the state. That's what I interpret from CNN and Wikipedia.

On that basis, of the 45 pledged delegates Iowa sends to the convention, Obama wins 18, Edwards 14 and Clinton 13.

 

[Qsaint]

Ok. The delegates to the national convention are distributed proportionally across Democrats that win 15% of the vote in the state. That's what I interpret from CNN and Wikipedia.

On that basis, of the 45 pledged delegates Iowa sends to the convention, Obama wins 18, Edwards 14 and Clinton 13.

Not including the Super delegates?

 

[FOOOOTY]

Did Obama win?? what does that mean?

 

[CharlieG]

Not including the Super delegates?

Correct.

Joe Biden has dropped out as well. It's going to be very interesting to see what Dennis Kucinich does. In 2004 he stayed in for months, despite having no chance of winning, in order to provide a home for left-wing protest voters. This time around, there's no clear winner from the establishment emerging, as John Kerry did. Kucinich needs to think hard about whether he wants to give Barack Obama every chance of beating Clinton.

Also remains to be seen what Bill Richardson decides. He's a chance of being Obama's choice for Vice-President if he drops out.

 

[FOOOOTY]

we've got Huckabee being promoted by Chuck Norris, another hopeful that is a Law & Order actor, some old bat that is riding on the coat tails of her husband and former President and a ex NY governor that rides on the tragedy of 9/11.

and this is democracy's "shining" light...

wouldn't vote for any of them except Obama.

Yep, thats kinda how i see the candidates too.. although i don't know anything about Romney and can't comment on him. But i do think Mccain is a decent candidate for the presidecy, he has an air of honesty about him.

But Obama is the standout among the group for me. Go Barack!