Fixture The Run to Finals

[dank420_]

I have us finishing 5th with GWS in 8th

 

[Old Campaigner]

I still don't trust us enough to not completely shit the bed and fall out of the 8

 

[DERO]

I have us finishing 5th with GWS in 8th

Me too funny enough. not horrible.

 

[Tassieboy]

Possible we could finish 4th with 4 wins.

 

[Yoda_]

The only games we should be losing are the final two, and even then Sydney in Melbourne are beatable. No excuses for dropping any of the others.

if we are serious about not making up the numbers, his needs to happen.

We simply get the business done in any 50:50 games versus inferior opposition; Adelaide, S.Kilda, Gold Coast must be wins,


take a win in any games against Gold Coast or Fremantle (who I think are being seriously under rated)

If we lose to Brisbane & Sydney, not ideal leading into September but hopefully the job is done by then. Get a win and my confidence the club has turned a corner may have increased.

 

[Bombers36]

Rating us only a 50/50 chance to beat the Demons on the weekend is a little pessimistic.
We are closer to a 66% chance to win - bookies agree also and have us short odds at $1.50



On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[JayJ20]

Rating us only a 50/50 chance to beat the Demons on the weekend is a little pessimistic.
We are closer to a 66% chance to win - bookies agree also and have us short odds at $1.50



On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

They’re still pretty good and the Geelong second half was only two games ago. Our forwardline and forward ball movement is still unreliable. It’s a genuine 50/50.

I actually have us losing to Melbourne, then winning the next 4 and losing the last two to finish 6th and host an EF vs GWS. Win this week and finishing top 4 becomes real.

 

[eth-dog]

Rating us only a 50/50 chance to beat the Demons on the weekend is a little pessimistic.
We are closer to a 66% chance to win - bookies agree also and have us short odds at $1.50



On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

The odds are a reflection of what gamblers think, not reality. We've gone in as "underdogs" with the bookies against Hawthorne, Sydney, St Kilda, Port Adelaide, Footscray, Adelaide, Collingwood x2, GWS, Gold Coast and Carlton for 6 wins, 4 losses and a draw. We've gone in as the bookies favourite against West Coast x2, North Melbourne, Richmond and Geelong for 4 wins and 1 loss.

Calling it a 50/50 is realistic. The last 5 clashes it's 3-2 in their favour. Last 10 it's 6-4 to them.

Squiggle run the most popular ladder predictor and base the most likely winner between the predictions on there and recent historical data between the two sides have them a 56% chance of winning.

I think we should win. But there's a difference between pessimism and realism. Calling this a 50/50 is being realistic as both teams are a decent chance of winning based on results this season.

 

[Dave]

Yeah possibly with the benefit of hindsight.
At the time I was furious though.
I'd also been doubting us since like round 9 because I just don't think we have played that well, so It kind of affirmed what I'd been thinking after the Geelong collapse and that start.

Agree, at one stage a 100+ loss looked possible. I was much happier with the second qtr effort!

 

[Dave]

Squiggle run the most popular ladder predictor and base the most likely winner between the predictions on there and recent historical data between the two sides have them a 56% chance of winning.

That's actually the aggregate or S10 I think. Squiggle itself has them at 60%. Of all the predictive sites it references, 1 out of 23 have us as favoiurite.

Melbourne v Essendon @ M.C.G.

22 models give Melbourne a 53-70% chance of victory over Essendon at the M.C.G. on Saturday with an average tipped margin of 5 points, but Drop Kick Data and Punters give Essendon a 50-62% chance with a margin of 5 points.

squiggle.com.au

 

[joey_jo_jo]

Projections based on historic quantitative data are accurate...till they're not.
Don't think it would be able to factor in the drop off in olivers form and I'm not sure it would be able to factor in dees minus both gawn and trac as there's not many games with both those two missing in recent years that the model could analyse.

Anyway I wouldnt say we are roaring favourites but definitely based on this seasons form and the qualitative data I've mentioned its easy to see why bookies have us as slight favourites.

 

[joey_jo_jo]

Just to add to my comment above, a pet peeve of mine is how footy analysts (especially spokespeople for champion data) go on about how "this footy style has been proven to win premierships and team x doesn't fit this profile so will eventually fall over".
It doesn't take in to account the best coaches are always looking at ways to either maintain their edge over the chasing pack by fine tuning/changing their system or ways to defeat the currently successful systems.

In 2022 David King kept banging on about Collingwoods style not standing up to finals pressure, because there was too much reliance on scoring from the back half instead of forward half pressure which the tigers and dees had proved is the best way to score. Now all they talk about is which teams have the best "scores from defensive half profile"

In 2018 everyone kept telling us the Eagles low pressure/high possession game wouldn't stand up, they didn't realise simpson and co had devised the perfect plan to beat the tigers high pressure game. It's similar to our game on Friday, King actually conceded on first crack that he wasn't a fan of our high possession/uncontested mark style but had to admit it was perfectly executed against the pies.

 

[ant555]

This thread gives complete understanding standing as to why there is multiple meltdowns several times a year

One week at a time you bone heads . The Essington is not lifted to we actually do it

 

[wichidi]

This thread gives complete understanding standing as to why there is multiple meltdowns several times a year

One week at a time you bone heads . The Essington is not lifted to we actually do it

Yep, check in after a couple of losses and it will be all doom and gloom. E.g. "we are not making finals" "no way we deserve to make finals" etc. etc. This board fluctuates wildly depending on our performance the previous weekend. Same applies to players performance. Take Perkins as an example. You would have thought he was the next Messiah after the Hawthorne game in round 1. Now people are calling for him to be dropped everywhere.

 

[astrowizzle]

I think we should just play to win every game then there will be no problems
How hard can that be

 

[maskmcgee]

I have us finishing 5th with GWS in 8th

GWS have never made finals and not won at least 1 final.

 

[dank420_]

GWS have never made finals and not won at least 1 final.

They have a divine right to win finals as we have a divine right to lose them.

 

[Vindicater]

I think we should just play to win every game then there will be no problems
How hard can that be

 

[Happyskeret]

I reckon that squiggle predictor is upside down……….Ms Jane.

 

[ghostdog]

This thread gives complete understanding standing as to why there is multiple meltdowns several times a year

One week at a time you bone heads . The Essington is not lifted to we actually do it

Yeah, you bone heads.

 

[Dave]

GWS have never made finals and not won at least 1 final.

GWS have only ever won in week 1 when they’ve played outside of Sydney against St kilda….

 

[maskmcgee]

GWS have only ever won in week 1 when they’ve played outside of Sydney against St kilda….

2021

 

[Dave]

2021

completely missed that. Just assumed it was in sin city. Ah well.

 

[justlookingaround]

No final will be a gimme.
More fussed about how we play than who we play.

 

[maskmcgee]

If we go back to the one final we should of actually won, the 2014 one against North, would it really make any difference? Apart from being a few thousands of days shorter since we last won one, what difference would it really make?