Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)

[hk89]

6/9. Although nobody really tipped Essendon or Brisbane, it had been common knowledge for a while that Brisbane were much better than 0-8 suggested. Essendon make no sense. They've beaten only Adelaide, Port and Hawthorn (all serious contenders) and lost to minnows.

Think you mean Geelong rather than Hawthorn there?

 

[MWPP]

About time the squiggle showed some significant Eagles movement.

Still less movement for Eagles /Richmond than I expected given that we beat the prediction by 60 points

Oh well , still loving this amazing thread and the predictor

 

[the harry]

Still less movement for Eagles /Richmond than I expected given that we beat the prediction by 60 points

Oh well , still loving this amazing thread and the predictor

We kicked very straight though. Can't happen every week.

 

[Final Siren]

We kicked very straight though. Can't happen every week.

Yep, this is the reason they didn't move more: Squiggle marks down the victory margin because it was closer in terms of scoring shots.

This does keep happening, though. So it may be that the Tigers are overrated by Squiggle because they hack the ball forward in a way that is likely to generate more behinds than average.

It was an interesting game statistically. Richmond won the Inside 50 count 58 to 45 and lost the free kicks 21 to 10, which are positive stats for a losing team, since they indicate the potential to do better when things go their way. But watching the game, it was a pretty clearly dominant performance by the Eagles. One of the hallmarks of Richmond in 2017-18 has been their ability to drag almost every opponent into a Richmond-style scragfest and the Eagles broke that comprehensively.

 

[Final Siren]

Essendon make no sense. They've beaten only Adelaide, Port and Hawthorn (all serious contenders) and lost to minnows.

There's a nice graphical illustration of this: on the Essendon row, the green wins are oddly far left.

 

[Chaisa]

Any reason why Adelaide are ahead of West Coast in the Squiggle flagpole ratings given West Coast have the better attack and defence?

 

[TheRoo32]

Any reason why Adelaide are ahead of West Coast in the Squiggle flagpole ratings given West Coast have the better attack and defence?

I would imagine it has something to do with Adelaide being consistently good over the last 4 years, while also sitting in the top 4 despite half their best 22 missing.

Having said that, if West Coast continue winning well they will keep moving up.

 

[Tas]

There's a nice graphical illustration of this: on the Essendon row, the green wins are oddly far left.

It is easier to hunt than be hunted.

 

[Final Siren]

Any reason why Adelaide are ahead of West Coast in the Squiggle flagpole ratings given West Coast have the better attack and defence?

Flagpole uses a completely different algorithm, based on the old Squiggle v1 model. I'm probably going to update it to use Squiggle 2.0 since there's not really enough evidence to justify a Grand Final-specific algo.

 

[Final Siren]

2018 biggest improvers to date:

1. North Melbourne
2. West Coast
3. Richmond
4. Melbourne
5. Fremantle

Also positive: Collingwood, Brisbane, Hawthorn, Gold Coast.

2018 disappointments to date:

1. St Kilda
2. Adelaide
3. Carlton
4. Western Bulldogs
5. Essendon (were #2 before last weekend)

 

[roacheee]

W L D
1. Richmond 18 4 0 139.6%
2. West Coast 17 5 0 131.4%
3. Melbourne 15 7 0 134.4%
4. Sydney 15 7 0 119.2%
5. Geelong 14 8 0 114.1%
6. Port Adelaide 14 8 0 108.2%
7. Adelaide 13 9 0 114.7%
8. Collingwood 13 9 0 107.4%

this squiggle prediction would mean a ripper week 1 of finals

 

[Roos Addick]

W L D
1. Richmond 18 4 0 139.6%
2. West Coast 17 5 0 131.4%
3. Melbourne 15 7 0 134.4%
4. Sydney 15 7 0 119.2%
5. Geelong 14 8 0 114.1%
6. Port Adelaide 14 8 0 108.2%
7. Adelaide 13 9 0 114.7%
8. Collingwood 13 9 0 107.4%

this squiggle prediction would mean a ripper week 1 of finals

Where are the Kangas?

 

[tazaa]

Where are the Kangas?

We play the bottom six teams 7 times and all at Etihad
Plus the Eagles in Hobart
Who cares what his opinion is

 

[LeverPuller]

That Dees Squiggle

 

[kaiserchief13]

We play the bottom six teams 7 times and all at Etihad
Plus the Eagles in Hobart
Who cares what his opinion is

Bris - Win
Geel - Loss
Dogs - 50/50
Ess - 50/50
GC - Win
Syd - 50/50
Coll - 50/50
WC - 50/50
Bris - 50/50
Dogs - 50/50
Adel - Loss
St Kilda - Win

3 guaranteed wins with a heap of 50/50's. If they win half of the 50/50's that 3.5 wins plus 3 guaranteed means 6.5. 12.5 wins may not be enough

 

[LeverPuller]

Bris - Win
Geel - Loss
Dogs - 50/50
Ess - 50/50
GC - Win
Syd - 50/50
Coll - 50/50
WC - 50/50
Bris - 50/50
Dogs - 50/50
Adel - Loss
St Kilda - Win

3 guaranteed wins with a heap of 50/50's. If they win half of the 50/50's that 3.5 wins plus 3 guaranteed means 6.5. 12.5 wins may not be enough

12 wins is 50/50 with 18 games and 8 finalists. 13 is the lock.

 

[Lsta062]

Bris - Win
Geel - Loss
Dogs - 50/50
Ess - 50/50
GC - Win
Syd - 50/50
Coll - 50/50
WC - 50/50
Bris - 50/50
Dogs - 50/50
Adel - Loss
St Kilda - Win

3 guaranteed wins with a heap of 50/50's. If they win half of the 50/50's that 3.5 wins plus 3 guaranteed means 6.5. 12.5 wins may not be enough

I wouldn't pencil Geelong in as a loss.

 

[kaiserchief13]

12 wins is 50/50 with 18 games and 8 finalists. 13 is the lock.

Hence why I said 12.5 may not be enough

 

[tazaa]

Bris - Win
Geel - Loss
Dogs - 50/50
Ess - 50/50
GC - Win
Syd - 50/50
Coll - 50/50
WC - 50/50
Bris - 50/50
Dogs - 50/50
Adel - Loss
St Kilda - Win

3 guaranteed wins with a heap of 50/50's. If they win half of the 50/50's that 3.5 wins plus 3 guaranteed means 6.5. 12.5 wins may not be enough

We have a %age of 120

Also with the way Adelaide and Geelong are travelling those games aren’t guaranteed losses

We just beat Freo in Perth
Doubt we’ll lose to Brisbane in Brisbane

 

[kaiserchief13]

I wouldn't pencil Geelong in as a loss.

Even if it's another 50/50 that would give them 13 wins and then it probably comes down to percentage.

Too many 50/50 games to get a good read on them

 

[roacheee]

Where are the Kangas?

ask the squiggle

 

[roacheee]

We play the bottom six teams 7 times and all at Etihad
Plus the Eagles in Hobart
Who cares what his opinion is

u guys are really that stupid?
this is a squiggle prediction, not my opinion.
squiggle doesn't care about you feeling left out, poor diddums

 

[Roos Addick]

Even if it's another 50/50 that would give them 13 wins and then it probably comes down to percentage.

Too many 50/50 games to get a good read on them

Squiggle got us finishing 6th. I’ll take its prediction over your gut feel.

 

[kaiserchief13]

u guys are really that stupid?
this is a squiggle prediction, not my opinion.
squiggle doesn't care about you feeling left out, poor diddums

But it's not because Squiggle says North finish 6th so where has your ladder come from?

 

[tazaa]

u guys are really that stupid?
this is a squiggle prediction, not my opinion.
squiggle doesn't care about you feeling left out, poor diddums

It’s your own opinion on a squiggle prediction you muppet
Hence why I said ignore it