- Aug 18, 2009
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- #176
I've been shifting stuff around servers lately so it might have been down for a bit. Should be back to normal now though.
Certified Legendary Thread The Squiggle is back in 2023 (and other analytics)
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The Goon
Norm Smith Medallist
We thank you for your sacrifice.
WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot
Norm Smith Medallist
- Oct 26, 2012
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Yep, the Eagles just managed to avoid the Demon dive bombing it from above!
The Hawks weren't so lucky, getting dive bombed by the Crows. Meanwhile Richmond, North and Collingwood appear to be enjoying their skiing holiday.
WhiskeyTangoFoxtrot
Norm Smith Medallist
- Oct 26, 2012
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That's because you were playing the Crows last year in the GF. The Crows seem to exist just to defy the Squiggle's predictions.
- Aug 18, 2009
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- #180
There's a cool page here showing final ladder predictors from 9 different AFL computer models including Squiggle:
http://footymaths.blogspot.com.au/p/below-are-aggregated-end-of-season.html
Some notables:
http://footymaths.blogspot.com.au/p/below-are-aggregated-end-of-season.html
Some notables:
- Richmond #1 according to all but two models
- The Crows have plunged, with most models now ranking them 5th-8th after starting the season as the most likely minor premiers
- The Hawks are top 4 according to all but two models
- The Cats are on the brink of the 8, with about half of the models putting them just inside and the others just outside
- Brisbane and Carlton to fight it out for the spoon, with Gold Coast and St Kilda rounding out the bottom 4
Would make for some cracking Qualifying finals in week 1:
Richmond vs Hawthorn
Sydney vs GWS
I hope not. Kind of funny we have never met in a final before.
Crankyhawk
Hall of Famer
Does squiggle 2.0 view all scoring shots as equal or are goals still of more value than behinds (reflection better opportunity), I was surprised hawthorn didn't go up as well as to right (maybe due to freak accuracy)
The gap between the leaders and the peloton seems easier to jump this year
- Aug 18, 2009
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- #185
Goals are still worth more, but it's close: a goal is worth 4 points and a behind is worth 3 points. So there's a 33% premium for kicking a goal, but that's quite a comedown from the real-life 500% premium.
This ratio was chosen simply because it got the best results when tested against data from the last 5-10 years.
With a scoreline of Hawks 18.7 (115) to Melbourne 6.12 (48), it really highlights the differences!
Dr Tigris
Brownlow Medallist
IMHO the Squiggle is trying to score a marathon by breaking it into 22 time periods. Runners surge and slow down, and (analogy slipping here) lose their stride and regain it. The Squiggle is the algorithm that best meets the criteria of predicting the eventual winner of the 22 game H&A marathon.
In finals some of the logic underpinning the Squiggle is broken. It's no longer a marathon, it's do or die each week. All teams are good, the differences between teams fade away. Differences in game plans, squad structures etc between individual teams becomes more important.
But I reckon the Squiggle gives us a good view of how good teams are, and in what way they are good. Simplified, but not too simple.
In finals some of the logic underpinning the Squiggle is broken. It's no longer a marathon, it's do or die each week. All teams are good, the differences between teams fade away. Differences in game plans, squad structures etc between individual teams becomes more important.
But I reckon the Squiggle gives us a good view of how good teams are, and in what way they are good. Simplified, but not too simple.
- Aug 18, 2009
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- #187
I actually think it has more to do with humans being better at tipping finals than regular games.
Squiggle's accuracy doesn't seem significantly different in finals vs H&A games. But I reckon humans have a much easier time tipping finals, because the amount of available data radically decreases. Instead of having to know a fair bit about 18 teams, you only have to know about 8 teams, then 6, then 4, then 2. And you're more likely to have seen those teams' recent form, since there aren't many finals matches to watch and they all involve two finalists.
So the big advantage of a computer model - being able to effortlessly juggle lots of data - goes away.
A Swallow
Norm Smith Medallist
I'd be stoked with this. North 10th or 11th in all models. Considering it's year 2 of a complete rebuild, in which we were tipped to be almost certainly wooden spooners for years to come on here, in the media and the general public. I was sure we weren't as bad as the majority were making out, but I guess it's still only been 4 rounds.
- Aug 18, 2009
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- #189
Four rounds can be enough to have a fair idea of what's going on! After Round 4 last year, the ladder looked like this:
- Geelong
- Adelaide
- Richmond
- GWS
- West Coast
- Western Bulldogs
- Port Adelaide
- Melbourne
West Coast and Port made finals, and while the Bulldogs and Melbourne didn't, they didn't miss by much: the Dogs were 1 game and percentage out, and the Demons, famously, missed by half a percentage point.
North are currently 7th with a percentage of 134%, and while they've certainly had a gentle run with the fixture so far - they may be yet to play a finals-bound opponent - they don't look much like a bottom team. Their ladder position has been earned off the back of two monsterings, and you can even argue that the conditions against Gold Coast in Round 1 didn't give them much of a chance to play their natural game.
There's good reason to think the Roos will fall down the ladder once they come up against real opposition, but it no longer seems likely that they'll fall very far.
Happy_Hawker
Team Captain
- Jan 19, 2015
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So what you're saying is predicted top 4 after round 4 are certain to finish there...
*Looks at prediction*
Good, about time Hawks finished top 4!
Magpie Monopoly
A Good Bloke
- Banned
- #191
Going by the week to week projection, Pies are favourite in 14 of the remaining games, with the Cats game being 50/50.
16 wins, where do I sign?
16 wins, where do I sign?
I’m a squiggle believer, but spot the clear error in this projection
- Feb 13, 2011
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Giants playing finals at the SCG? Collingwood getting within 3 goals of a grand final? Port Adelaide winning a showdown?
A game where Adelaïde didn’t turn up, catapults the pies to the prelim.
The only other game they won this year was Carlton?
- Mar 28, 2018
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My blood just boiled at the thought of us playing a QF at the SCG. No way no how. Spotless or a shock to most, Manuka
Foley#41
Tin Foil Hat
30/9/17
kaiserchief13
Hall of Famer
- Jul 12, 2011
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After round 6 isn't it that the top 8 only changes with 1 or 2 teams?
I know my model doesn't take this into account either, but Adelaide has a lot of major outs. For example, this week they were missing Sloane, Betts, Smith and two Crouches (and a few more). I suspect that reports of their demise have been exaggerated.
A Swallow
Norm Smith Medallist
North having another solid wander diagonally up & right. Drastic change over the course of the first 5 rounds.
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