Analysis The Stats and nothing but the Stats

[Ticky009]

 

[SwansProudly]

Coaches Votes

0​

1​

2​

3​

4​

5​

6​

7​

8​

9​

10​

11​

12​

Total

Bye

Bye

Isaac Heeney

9​

10​

9​

4​

9​

6​

7​

1​

8​

8​

71​

Chad Warner

2​

5​

1​

5​

10​

5​

10​

10​

48​

Errol Gulden

5​

6​

9​

2​

5​

6​

1​

6​

40​

Brodie Grundy

9​

9​

6​

24​

Nick Blakey

5​

9​

5​

19​

Oliver Florent

2​

5​

8​

15​

James Rowbottom

5​

4​

9​

Tom Papley

7​

7​

Dane Rampe

7​

7​

Will Hayward

5​

5​

James Jordon

3​

1​

4​

Justin McInerney

1​

1​

Logan McDonald

1​

1​

AFLCA Champion Player of the Year - AFL Coaches Association Awards - AFL Coaches Association

aflcoaches.com.au

 

[MR0808]

Coaches Votes

0​

1​

2​

3​

4​

5​

6​

7​

8​

9​

10​

11​

12​

Total

Bye

Bye

Isaac Heeney

9​

10​

9​

4​

9​

6​

7​

1​

8​

8​

71​

Chad Warner

2​

5​

1​

5​

10​

5​

10​

10​

48​

Errol Gulden

5​

6​

9​

2​

5​

6​

1​

6​

40​

Brodie Grundy

9​

9​

6​

24​

Nick Blakey

5​

9​

5​

19​

Oliver Florent

2​

5​

8​

15​

James Rowbottom

5​

4​

9​

Tom Papley

7​

7​

Dane Rampe

7​

7​

Will Hayward

5​

5​

James Jordon

3​

1​

4​

Justin McInerney

1​

1​

Logan McDonald

1​

1​

AFLCA Champion Player of the Year - AFL Coaches Association Awards - AFL Coaches Association

aflcoaches.com.au

First game for the year with no votes for Isaac. His bad game is someone else's good game

 

[Ticky009]

And to provide some comparison there's the historical data below Round 11

 

[Kiama Chris]

And to provide some comparison there's the historical data below Round 11

Really interesting that:
1) the next two closest teams are the Dogs and Lions - outside the 8. The next 5 are the teams most would consider contenders.
2) Essendon rate 13th.

 

[Daniel B]

Speaking of lopsided, compare the percentages of positions 2-6 with 9-13. The average of the latter is slightly higher than that of the former.

 

[Kiama Chris]

Speaking of lopsided, compare the percentages of positions 2-6 with 9-13. The average of the latter is slightly higher than that of the former.

View attachment 2002704

Essendon and Dogs the outliers.
Av 3-6 = 114.9
Av 9-13 x WB = 110.9
But 2-13 remarkably close!
Perhaps it shows that 14-18 are pretty poor and of course that we are very good!

 

[caesar88]

I feel like these numbers, like many aspects of our game (such as Gulden's disposal efficiency), are probably distorted by the risk/reward aspect of it. Blakey and to a lesser extent Florent's kick-ins (which account for over 60% of our total kick-ins) tend to either get us to the halfway point of the field or lead directly to a horrible turnover and repeat entry for the opposition. With little in between. When it works it's the most damaging kick in the comp. We're prepared to wear the times when it doesn't.

 

[caesar88]

Our "top five rated players" this year. Whoever died and made 'player ratings' the boss.

But interestingly our five are the second-youngest of any team's, behind only North's.

 

[GoTheSwannies]

Our "top five rated players" this year. Whoever died and made 'player ratings' the boss.

But interestingly our five are the second-youngest of any team's, behind only North's.

Heeney's in some pretty good company there, leading bont, gawn, butters and petracca. The Chad at #6 in that group.

 

[caesar88]

We have three of the top ten

 

[sataris]

Fun Fact: The team that scores more points will win the game.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

We have three of the top ten

Surely this is nonsense disappearing up its own behind

 

[caesar88]

Surely this is nonsense disappearing up its own behind

Don't get me started Horace. I'm trying to be a good sport.

 

[Grand Uncle Horace]

Don't get me started Horace. I'm trying to be a good sport.

It wasn’t our three blokes, it was Wardlaw and Reid who struck me as truly weird were.

Bont has been a great player but imo he has become to back to the field.

 

[Kiama Chris]

It wasn’t our three blokes, it was Wardlaw and Reid who struck me as truly weird were.

Bont has been a great player but imo he has become to back to the field.

You would think surely Serong and Merrett would be more damaging than either of those two.

 

[caesar88]

It wasn’t our three blokes, it was Wardlaw and Reid who struck me as truly weird were.

Bont has been a great player but imo he has become to back to the field.

I haven't seen enough of Wardlaw to comment (though what I have seen is him getting caught in tackles literally every time), but Reid generally does have a remarkable ability to make something happen seemingly every time he's involved. Having said that, it's not that remarkable when you consider his one wood is making high contact with players' faces and throats.

 

[Millky95]

Fun Fact: The team that scores more points will win the game.

You joke but I worked a conference that was talking about big data and AI stuff a few years back and the guy showed an example of a TV company in the USA using AI and stuff to pull facts about the teams playing for the telecast. The facts the AI pulled was like "the home team wins 100% of games when they score more than the opposition. So to win this game, the home team needs to score more than the opposition"

 

[sataris]

You joke but I worked a conference that was talking about big data and AI stuff a few years back and the guy showed an example of a TV company in the USA using AI and stuff to pull facts about the teams playing for the telecast. The facts the AI pulled was like "the home team wins 100% of games when they score more than the opposition. So to win this game, the home team needs to score more than the opposition"

To be fair, this is much better than the analysis I get from Bigfooty.

 

[Crust]

Played at Lakelands, designed by Jack Nicklaus, on the Gold Coast a few years back. They gave us a little book with details of each hole, and every hole had a "Jack's tip". On the 6th IIRC Jack's tip was "a long straight drive provides the best approach to the hole."
I wish I'd known that years ago, could've won a lot more majors. As it happens Jack and I between us have 18.

 

[Ticky009]

Posted in the media thread already but there's plenty of stats here for those who want to discuss it more in depth

How the Swans have climbed above a congested AFL pack in 2024

The 2024 AFL season is one of the closest in recent memory, but the Sydney Swans have separated themselves as we reach the halfway mark of the season. Here's what they're doing better than everyone else.

www.abc.net.au

 

[J_Moore]

A statistician over on Twitter has developed a metric for judging the best field kicks in the league.
Basically it works a bit like gymnastic/diving judging - he looks at the degree of difficulty of their kicks, and how often they successfully execute them.

Guys that generate regularly generate scoring opportunities from tough parts of the ground (or when under pressure) and who don’t the ball over, will score well.
An article with a more through explanation of the methodology is up on the ABC website, thanks to
friend-of-the-Bigfooty-Swans-board Sean Lawson: What makes a good kick?

Anyway, to the rankings

---

One Swan (along with Ed Richards

20

Ed Richards

Age

25

Ht

188cm

Wt

89kg

Pos.

D/M

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.4

3star

K

7.2

3star

HB

5.2

4star

M

2.5

3star

T

2.4

4star

MG

201.4

3star

D

11.3

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

5.3

3star

M

1.5

2star

T

2.5

3star

MG

198.3

3star

D

14.6

4star

K

9.8

4star

HB

4.8

4star

M

4.8

5star

T

2.6

4star

MG

232.4

4star

) stands head and shoulders above the comp with how dangerous their kicking is, but it’s not who you might think.



JMac turns the ball over slightly more than Zac Williams, but is much, much more damaging (Also very surprising is which Swan comes in at number 2!)

---

Then there is the top 50 most prolific kicks in the league, ranked by kick quality. A couple of more familiar names here - Gulden and Blakey - but they don’t appear on the first list due to their tendency to turn the ball over a bit. (But interestingly, their kicking is still apparently not as damaging as JMac’s, Jordon or Heeney’s.)

---

Finally, the team ranked.



Lessons seem to be:
1) Get the ball in JMac’s hands more often
2) Jordon is a real surprise package given his kicking was his major weakness at the Demons
3) Gulden and Blakey are great kicks, but those occasional turnovers do hurt. But it’s their running as much as their kicking that makes them so dangerous.
3) Grundy should stick to handballing

 

[Ticky009]

Round 12:

 

[Kirkswan]

A statistician over on Twitter has developed a metric for judging the best field kicks in the league.
Basically it works a bit like gymnastic/diving judging - he looks at the degree of difficulty of their kicks, and how often they successfully execute them.

Guys that generate regularly generate scoring opportunities from tough parts of the ground (or when under pressure) and who don’t the ball over, will score well.
An article with a more through explanation of the methodology is up on the ABC website, thanks to
friend-of-the-Bigfooty-Swans-board Sean Lawson: What makes a good kick?

Anyway, to the rankings

---

One Swan (along with Ed Richards) stands head and shoulders above the comp with how dangerous their kicking is, but it’s not who you might think.

View attachment 2011034

JMac turns the ball over slightly more than Zac Williams, but is much, much more damaging (Also very surprising is which Swan comes in at number 2!)

---

Then there is the top 50 most prolific kicks in the league, ranked by kick quality. A couple of more familiar names here - Gulden and Blakey - but they don’t appear on the first list due to their tendency to turn the ball over a bit. (But interestingly, their kicking is still apparently not as damaging as JMac’s, Jordon or Heeney’s.)

View attachment 2011035

---

Finally, the team ranked.

View attachment 2011037

Lessons seem to be:
1) Get the ball in JMac’s hands more often
2) Jordon is a real surprise package given his kicking was his major weakness at the Demons
3) Gulden and Blakey are great kicks, but those occasional turnovers do hurt. But it’s their running as much as their kicking that makes them so dangerous.
3) Grundy should stick to handballing

Hey, this was really interesting and I enjoyed the read, so thanks very much!

I had a slightly different take on it though... I wondered if the stat reflects how we use the player, rather than how good or bad they are?

 

[Kirkswan]

Round 12:

I noted Chad is not on that list...