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Autopsy The Stats Don’t Lie: VicBIAS By The Numbers - An Empirical Analysis
- Thread starter Rory Walkerfield
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Are all South Australians sooks or just the ones on Bigfooty??
The VFL expanded and let some interstate clubs join, and all you want to do is whinge about it. Don't like the league? Simple, go watch the SANFL.
Surprised this type of idiocy took 29 posts.
Mobile phone screenshot. Must be true.
I would like to see it verified. But if it is true something needs to change.
WC and Sydney are the only non Victorian sides to win a flag since 2006 and you could argue both were lucky and less than a goal in both games could mean no flags was a statistical possibility.
With 18 teams and growing, the longer this goes on the less non Victorian side eyeballs will invest in this sport.
That doesn't verify his claim one way or another.
Obviously
Great input.
Yes posting actual data is less quality input than your finger in the air whinge posts.
Your data is useless so no not quality input.
It's raw home and away free kick data with an actually meaningful sample size, people can dissect how they wish.
- Oct 16, 2016
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I don't know if this is a nuanced point or not but one thing I get frustrated about with any discussion around free kick numbers is an analysis of whether the free kicks are there or not, and I guess you could say the free kicks that weren't paid.
The assumption of people who talk about free kick numbers as a differential without any context is that the free kicks were either unfairly paid or other ones were missed. But this is just that, an assumption.
If you actually want to objectively prove the point that free kick decisions are biased towards one team or another, you'd had to go through every game over that 8 year period, assess each contest according to the letter of the law, and decide if a free kick should or shouldn't have been paid according to the letter of the law.
But we know that's unrealistic and unfeasible, that the adjudication of this sport is easily the most complex in the world, where there are a myriad of factors that determine whether a free kick will be paid i.e more free kicks earlier in a season, putting the whistle away towards the end of close games, changes in the interpretation before and during a season, the positioning of the umpires and also the coaching of players in tackle technique, fitness and discipline to not give away free kicks. Never any talk of teams giving away dumb free kicks, it's always some deeper conspiracy
To say that a free kick differential alone is evidence of bias towards one team or another is a logical fallacy and completely bonkers. It's bottom of the barrel, one eyed football jingoism.
The assumption of people who talk about free kick numbers as a differential without any context is that the free kicks were either unfairly paid or other ones were missed. But this is just that, an assumption.
If you actually want to objectively prove the point that free kick decisions are biased towards one team or another, you'd had to go through every game over that 8 year period, assess each contest according to the letter of the law, and decide if a free kick should or shouldn't have been paid according to the letter of the law.
But we know that's unrealistic and unfeasible, that the adjudication of this sport is easily the most complex in the world, where there are a myriad of factors that determine whether a free kick will be paid i.e more free kicks earlier in a season, putting the whistle away towards the end of close games, changes in the interpretation before and during a season, the positioning of the umpires and also the coaching of players in tackle technique, fitness and discipline to not give away free kicks. Never any talk of teams giving away dumb free kicks, it's always some deeper conspiracy
To say that a free kick differential alone is evidence of bias towards one team or another is a logical fallacy and completely bonkers. It's bottom of the barrel, one eyed football jingoism.
Sorry, I slept in.
Yes it's a good way to measure coin tosses and that's about it.
- Jun 25, 2009
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So the biggest home ground advantage for free kicks are:
1. West Coast 115.7%
2. Bulldogs 112.4%
3. Port 111.8%
4. Adelaide 110.4%
Vic bias? Not seeing it.
- Feb 21, 2006
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My observation from watching AFL since the Crows joined the comp is that for a non Vic team playing against a Vic team in Vic, the issue with the umpiring isn’t so much the frees that get paid to the home Vic side, but the frees that don’t get paid that should have to the non-Vic side.
there is minimal consistency favouring the home Vic side.
I would argue the incorrect decisions you are referring to would predominantly fall into this category, thereby effectively being embedded in the analysis presented.
here is a classic exception though, absolute beauty of a decision:
Is this the worst ‘in the back’ call ever?
Umpires in the spotlight again after awarding controversial free to Hawthorn.thewest.com.au
Same thing happens when teams play away in Adelaide, Perth, Brisbane and Sydney - in fact it's worse because those teams get 10 genuine home advantage games a year vs around 4-6 for Vic clubs.
In other words, sook harder
_Mike_
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Here's the link, easy to find
ADELAIDE spearhead Josh Jenkins believes "90 per cent" of the free kicks paid against the Crows were correct despite the lopsided count in Saturday night's Western Bulldogs-Adelaide clash. The Crows were on the wrong end of a 28-12 free kick tally in their 15-point loss at Etihad Stadium, with 16 more frees going to the home side.
Adelaide coach Don Pyke last night said the club would seek further clarification from the AFL umpiring department about some of the decisions made during the game.
Dogs deserved '90 per cent' of free kicks, says Crow Jenkins
Star Crow says Dogs earned free kicks as club seeks answers
www.afl.com.au
- Feb 21, 2006
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How could no flags be a statistical possibility? Had the results in those games been reversed an interstate team still would have won
What about the 15 years before 2006 how many interstate teams won the flag then? 92, 94, 97, 98, 01, 02, 03, 04, 05, 06 - oh wow looks like a lot of interstate sides winning flags, I guess Vicbias didn't exist between the years 92-2006?
The sooking is hilarious especially when you consider some all time teams have won flags since 2007 - Cats, Hawks and Tigers sharing 11 flags between them.
_Mike_
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This is the dumbest argument. Melbourne have left Victoria 4 times this year. So we get 10 genuine home games vs demons 19 games in Victoria. I'd take 19 games in South Australia vs 10 "genuine home games".Same thing happens when teams play away in Adelaide, Perth, Brisbane and Sydney - in fact it's worse because those teams get 10 genuine home advantage games a year vs around 4-6 for Vic clubs.
In other words, sook harder
It does verify that you don't want to hear anything that disputes the claim.
- Feb 21, 2006
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What are you talking about? We've left Victoria 8 times this year plus playing in Geelong.
