The Top 4 challengers

[Igloo]

Losing Hayes will cost them. They cant afford any injuries and they are currently down two rucks and their best mid. Their older players are starting to show signs of wear and tear.

If Hayes is out for a while it will really hurt them. He does everything on the inside by himself. Without him they will struggle

 

[Archangel]

Wait until Geelong get their full side on the park before writing off the mighty pussies

 

[Coolangatta]

Ever heard of learned helplessness theory? In the presence of inescapable aversive stimuli, the individual, or team, habituates to the stimuli by a decrement in performance, so they can attribute their failure to a lack of effort rather than a lack of ability.

Then there is reactance theory. This is essentially the opposite of learned helplessness. The individual or team tries harder to regain supremacy - the more challenging the task, the harder they try. But a decrement in performance will occur if improved effort is futile.

In this case, the aversive stimuli is Collingwood. They are by far the best team in the competition and look unbeatable. They'll be even stronger this year than they were last year.

Now look at their challengers. St Kilda and Geelong have gone down a notch; as a result, they will succumb to learned helplessness. Their enemy will be the internal realisation of their own limited ability. They know they aren't good enough to challenge Collingwood and this will deflate their efforts, hence they won't make the top 4.

The Western Bulldogs are a question mark. They should arguably be stronger than they were last year. Do they have the ability to challenge the Pies? Maybe. Will they? I don't think so, because think about the carry over effects three straight preliminary final exits can have on a team in the context of learned helplessness.

This leaves Fremantle, Hawthorn, Sydney, Adelaide and Essendon. These are the teams that I see fighting it out for the other top 4 spots; who will finish where will depend on injuries and form.

My ladder prediction was silly, caving in to the same old kind of ladder we're used to seeing the experts produce. Truth is, I won't be surprised if the Saints, Geelong and the Bulldogs all miss the finals. I had this in the back of my mind even before the season began.

But I didn't want to believe it because I would hope that the behaviourist theory of learned helplessness doesn't apply to professional AFL teams, but I think it does. In my opinion, when teams give up reasonably good leads in a game of footy, that is the number one sign of mental issues. The Saints did last night. Hawthorn did last week, too. But I think they'll be fine.

Hopefully I'm wrong and they all (Saints, Bullies, Cats) make the 8, playing good footy.

My top 4, in no particular order, excluding the Pies, is:

1. Collingwood

Adelaide
Sydney
Hawthorn

 

[Coolangatta]

^ Bump. Haha, I was reading over some old posts of mine. Oh that horror of a lab report had me waffling on like a twit. My top four prediction was a year off, except Collingwood didn't finish on top last year. Adelaide did shit, Geelong surprised and West Coast came out of left field.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

^ Bump. Haha, I was reading over some old posts of mine. Oh that horror of a lab report had me waffling on like a twit. My top four prediction was a year off, except Collingwood didn't finish on top last year. Adelaide did shit, Geelong surprised and West Coast came out of left field.

So what were your top-4 picks for last season

 

[Coolangatta]

Collingwood, Carlton, Geelong and Fremantle.

But then I also said Geelong's window would shut when Scarlett retires and I had West Coast finishing 7th last year, even though I said later that I'd doubt they'd slide out of the top six when I didn't even have them in there myself haha.

 

[Kane McGoodwin]

Collingwood, Carlton, Geelong and Fremantle.

But then I also said Geelong's window would shut when Scarlett retires and I had West Coast finishing 7th last year, even though I said later that I'd doubt they'd slide out of the top six when I didn't even have them in there myself haha.

Let's see whether this ends up being the top-4 for 2013. Not unrealistic. Who did you have 5th, in case Cats do fall withough Scarlett?

 

[Coolangatta]

Let's see whether this ends up being the top-4 for 2013. Not unrealistic. Who did you have 5th, in case Cats do fall withough Scarlett?

I had Hawthorn finishing 5th, but didn't even have Sydney in my top 8. How wrong that turned out to be.