The trajectories of contenders in 2025

[adammania9]

You are severely underrating Collingwood here mate. St Kilda a smokey for top 4 but Collingwood 6-10?

Collingwood had an off year for a number of reasons. Firstly it was the shortest pre-season in history for Grand Finallists, Brisbane also starting 0-3, with that Opening Round rubbish. Brisbane got it together and won the flag, but the Brisbane's team was much healthier than Collingwood. Collingwood and Carlton had the worst injury list of any team I have seen in years, literally half the best 22 out at times.

It wouldn't be a surprise at all, had we made the top 8, that we would have played off with Brisbane in the Grand Final for a second year straight (had we not met them earlier in the finals series).

Collingwood for top 4 next year. I will not say if we will go all the way, as anything can happen, but what I will tell you is we will be much better than 2024. Longer pre season and no way we have a season as bad as this with the players we had in and out of the side.

Bit of sauce on our injuries there. We were hit, but Brisbane lost 3 or 4 players to ACLs very early in the year all of whom were best 23. We weren’t good enough to compete for a number of reasons. That said, I do think we’re top 6, possibly top 4 again provided we pick up either Houston or a defender that’s closer to Murphy than Frampton.

 

[PerthBoy86]

You are severely underrating Collingwood here mate. St Kilda a smokey for top 4 but Collingwood 6-10?

Collingwood had an off year for a number of reasons. Firstly it was the shortest pre-season in history for Grand Finallists, Brisbane also starting 0-3, with that Opening Round rubbish. Brisbane got it together and won the flag, but the Brisbane's team was much healthier than Collingwood. Collingwood and Carlton had the worst injury list of any team I have seen in years, literally half the best 22 out at times.

It wouldn't be a surprise at all, had we made the top 8, that we would have played off with Brisbane in the Grand Final for a second year straight (had we not met them earlier in the finals series).

Collingwood for top 4 next year. I will not say if we will go all the way, as anything can happen, but what I will tell you is we will be much better than 2024. Longer pre season and no way we have a season as bad as this with the players we had in and out of the side.

They're still pretty mediocre, imo.

You are severely underrating Collingwood here mate. St Kilda a smokey for top 4 but Collingwood 6-10?

Collingwood had an off year for a number of reasons. Firstly it was the shortest pre-season in history for Grand Finallists, Brisbane also starting 0-3, with that Opening Round rubbish. Brisbane got it together and won the flag, but the Brisbane's team was much healthier than Collingwood. Collingwood and Carlton had the worst injury list of any team I have seen in years, literally half the best 22 out at times.

It wouldn't be a surprise at all, had we made the top 8, that we would have played off with Brisbane in the Grand Final for a second year straight (had we not met them earlier in the finals series).

Collingwood for top 4 next year. I will not say if we will go all the way, as anything can happen, but what I will tell you is we will be much better than 2024. Longer pre season and no way we have a season as bad as this with the players we had in and out of the side.

Maybe I am, I think they're an average to good side, which fits in 6-10. They were being smacked by North and look well controlled by GC, Geelong, Essendon the second time etc.

Be surprised if they're top 4, but could happen.

 

[JPetro83]

The 2025 Premier to come from:
Brisbane
GWS
Sydney
Hawthorn
Collingwood

Hawks wont make the 8. flash in the pan.. over achieved

 

[Fadge]

Hawks wont make the 8. flash in the pan.. over achieved

As much as I'd also like to think so, this is doubtful.

Lewis back
Dear and Watson a year older
More football from Day
In Barass and Battle

Whilst they did get on a roll over the back half of the season, they have as much upside as anyone...

 

[timokane]

Agree with the Pies i feel they have only got 2 good years ahead.
2025 and a levelling out in 2026.
2027 will be the re build.
but hey been a great ride since.
2024 was the outlier and could does not give us a real bearing on them as of yet.
2025 will provide the total Collingwood story of what the next say 3-4 years be like at the pies.
2025 is decade defining in my opinion.
A pivotting year in alot of ways.
Intrigue but defining.
2025 is the one.
I would say 2025 is the most important season of the clubs history.
A repeat of 2024 we have massive issues.
A repeat of 2023 and it can be the start of the Collingwood dynasty.

 

[btdg]

I reckon it is worth looking at a number of things, but prior to any trade or offseason moves, I think its wise to just expect teams to regress back to their own 'median' - that is, a luck-neutral reflection of their club and list quality. If you compare to how teams have travelled over the past 3 seasons, that's a pretty good proxy for this IMO. Recency matters, of course, so my expected value for next year is half-way between their past 3 season average, and their 2024 finish.

Note by 'expect' I am saying what should be a median expectation - 50% of outcomes above, 50% of outcomes below. Another way of thinking would be what is a fair betting line. Half the teams will do better than this, half worse.

Brisbane: this season = Premiers. Past 3 seasons = 2nd, 6th, 4th (average position 4th).
Based on this, I'd expect Brisbane to regress slightly - I mean, almost by definition the premiers had everything go right. But their expected level is 2nd or 3rd - they should be up there again.

Sydney: this season = runners-up. Past 3 season = 6th, 2nd, 8th (average position = 5.5).
Again, we can expect a slight regression - maybe a slow start as so often happens for grand final losers, but then see them push for top 4. Right now I would expect 4th or 5th.

Port: this season = 3rd. Past 3 seasons = 3rd, 11th, 2nd (average position 5.5).
As with Sydney, would expect some regression, probably expect them jump back to 4th or 5th as well

Geelong: this season = 4th. Past 3 seasons = 12th, Premiers, 3rd (average position 5.5).
Similar to Port/Syddney - same expected position 4.5.

GWS: this season = 5th, past 3 seasons = 6th, 16th, 7th (average position 9th)
Predicted value is 7th... actually seems about right given we know they are losing a little depth, and had a few older guys have fantastic years

Bulldogs: this season = 6th. Past 3 seasons = 9th, 8th, runner-up (average position 6.3)
Expect to see them right back in 6th again. Interesting one - are the young guys ready to step up?

Hawthorn: this season = 7th. Past 3 seasons = 16th, 13th, 14th (average position 14)
I expect them to drop back a bit. Young teams rarely progress in a linear manner, and you only have to slip slightly to fall off the pace. 10th or 11th isn't that big a stretch - 2.5 wins this year would drop them to 12th. Would be doing very well to get back again

Carlton: this season = 8th. Past 3 seasons = 4th, 9th, 13th (average position 9th)
Expected position would be 9th - so fighting for a top 8 spot. That seems about right. Had awful luck this year, but also unlikely to 'fix' any of the injury luck so that's not really going to flip the opposition direction

Collingwood: this season = 9th. Past 3 seasons = Premiers, 4th, 17th (average position = 7.3)
Expected value has them leap-frogging Carlton into 8th spot. Actually seems about right - should make finals again

Fremantle: this season = 10th. Past 3 seasons = 14th, 5th, 11th (average position = 10th)
Actually seems to sit about right. Would I be surprised if they made a leap into finals - absolutely not. But to do so means leapfrogging the teams above them, so lets wait and see what happens...

Melbourne: this season = 14th. Past 3 seasons = 5th, 3rd, 1st (average position = 3rd)
Would expect Melbourne to come back up somewhat. Expected position 8.5 puts them slightly ahead of Carlton in expected spot.

I haven't included Essendon, Gold Coast, Adelaide, or St Kilda, but based on this the EXPECTED ladder would be something like:

1. Brisbane (expected position = 4th)
2, 3, 4 Geelong, Sydney, Port (expected position = 5.5)
5. Bulldogs (expected position = 6)
6. Collingwood (expected position = 7.3)
7. Melbourne (expected position = 8.5)
8. Carlton (expected position = 9)
9. 10. Hawthorn/Freo (expected position = 10)
Below that would probably be St Kilda (runs on the board), then Essendon and GC (median position 12th-ish), then Adelaide

Some interesting things above are that a) no-one really outperformed their baseline this year except for Hawthorn. b) aside from Brisbane and Sydney, every other team has finished at least 11th or lower in the past 4 years, and aside from Port every other team has a finish in the 'teens' (bottom 6). It's an even competition and you only have to be slightly off to fall away heavily, as Melbourne (and Collingwood) found this year.

This is before trades and free agency and doesn't really account for list changes, but then again, those don't always pan out as we think anyway.

 

[Cleansweep17]

Geelong to lose a prelim again

Lions lose a prelim

Freo lose SF

Port lose SF

Pies lose EF

Swans lose EF

GWS v Carlton GF

 

[PerthBoy86]

I reckon it is worth looking at a number of things, but prior to any trade or offseason moves, I think its wise to just expect teams to regress back to their own 'median' - that is, a luck-neutral reflection of their club and list quality. If you compare to how teams have travelled over the past 3 seasons, that's a pretty good proxy for this IMO. Recency matters, of course, so my expected value for next year is half-way between their past 3 season average, and their 2024 finish.

Note by 'expect' I am saying what should be a median expectation - 50% of outcomes above, 50% of outcomes below. Another way of thinking would be what is a fair betting line. Half the teams will do better than this, half worse.

Brisbane: this season = Premiers. Past 3 seasons = 2nd, 6th, 4th (average position 4th).
Based on this, I'd expect Brisbane to regress slightly - I mean, almost by definition the premiers had everything go right. But their expected level is 2nd or 3rd - they should be up there again.

Sydney: this season = runners-up. Past 3 season = 6th, 2nd, 8th (average position = 5.5).
Again, we can expect a slight regression - maybe a slow start as so often happens for grand final losers, but then see them push for top 4. Right now I would expect 4th or 5th.

Port: this season = 3rd. Past 3 seasons = 3rd, 11th, 2nd (average position 5.5).
As with Sydney, would expect some regression, probably expect them jump back to 4th or 5th as well

Geelong: this season = 4th. Past 3 seasons = 12th, Premiers, 3rd (average position 5.5).
Similar to Port/Syddney - same expected position 4.5.

GWS: this season = 5th, past 3 seasons = 6th, 16th, 7th (average position 9th)
Predicted value is 7th... actually seems about right given we know they are losing a little depth, and had a few older guys have fantastic years

Bulldogs: this season = 6th. Past 3 seasons = 9th, 8th, runner-up (average position 6.3)
Expect to see them right back in 6th again. Interesting one - are the young guys ready to step up?

Hawthorn: this season = 7th. Past 3 seasons = 16th, 13th, 14th (average position 14)
I expect them to drop back a bit. Young teams rarely progress in a linear manner, and you only have to slip slightly to fall off the pace. 10th or 11th isn't that big a stretch - 2.5 wins this year would drop them to 12th. Would be doing very well to get back again

Carlton: this season = 8th. Past 3 seasons = 4th, 9th, 13th (average position 9th)
Expected position would be 9th - so fighting for a top 8 spot. That seems about right. Had awful luck this year, but also unlikely to 'fix' any of the injury luck so that's not really going to flip the opposition direction

Collingwood: this season = 9th. Past 3 seasons = Premiers, 4th, 17th (average position = 7.3)
Expected value has them leap-frogging Carlton into 8th spot. Actually seems about right - should make finals again

Fremantle: this season = 10th. Past 3 seasons = 14th, 5th, 11th (average position = 10th)
Actually seems to sit about right. Would I be surprised if they made a leap into finals - absolutely not. But to do so means leapfrogging the teams above them, so lets wait and see what happens...

Melbourne: this season = 14th. Past 3 seasons = 5th, 3rd, 1st (average position = 3rd)
Would expect Melbourne to come back up somewhat. Expected position 8.5 puts them slightly ahead of Carlton in expected spot.

I haven't included Essendon, Gold Coast, Adelaide, or St Kilda, but based on this the EXPECTED ladder would be something like:

1. Brisbane (expected position = 4th)
2, 3, 4 Geelong, Sydney, Port (expected position = 5.5)
5. Bulldogs (expected position = 6)
6. Collingwood (expected position = 7.3)
7. Melbourne (expected position = 8.5)
8. Carlton (expected position = 9)
9. 10. Hawthorn/Freo (expected position = 10)
Below that would probably be St Kilda (runs on the board), then Essendon and GC (median position 12th-ish), then Adelaide

Some interesting things above are that a) no-one really outperformed their baseline this year except for Hawthorn. b) aside from Brisbane and Sydney, every other team has finished at least 11th or lower in the past 4 years, and aside from Port every other team has a finish in the 'teens' (bottom 6). It's an even competition and you only have to be slightly off to fall away heavily, as Melbourne (and Collingwood) found this year.

This is before trades and free agency and doesn't really account for list changes, but then again, those don't always pan out as we think anyway.

Interesting reasoning, but if teams are on a sharp upwards trajectory why would you expect them to finish the average of the past 3 seasons?

I agree with some that for Hawthorn there's no guarantee they'll do better next year. They had the element of surprise this year, and arguably did overachieve/caught some form. Won't have as much latitude next season. Think they'll still improve slightly, however, 5-7 for me. Be an interesting watch.