Things that please me - Part 5

[Billy ray]

Is that just the first time you wake up in the morning, or does it include subsequent times you wake up after falling back asleep ignoring your alarm?

For me its up no alarm around 5 and either walking on beach or swimming by 510

 

[rocker_oz33]

Took Mrs R Olds out for dinner to say thanks for looking after the pets while we're away.
Was tasty and quiet no loud people also got 25% off the bill.

Christmas day sorted out .

 

[Frank Bunn]

I don't understand how this has anything to do with probability.

Spoiler

The Monty Hall Problem is a famous probability puzzle named after Monty Hall, the host of the television game show "Let's Make a Deal."

The Probability Calculation:

• Initial choice: You pick a door. There’s a 1/3 chance that you’ve picked the car and a 2/3 chance that you’ve picked a goat.
• Monty’s action: Monty opens a door that’s not the car. If you’ve picked a goat (which happens with probability 2/3), Monty is forced to reveal the other goat, leaving the car behind the last unopened door.
• Switching: If you switch, you win if you originally picked a goat (which happens with probability 2/3).
• Staying: If you stay, you win if you originally picked the car (which happens with probability 1/3).

Thus, the probability of winning if you switch is 2/3, and the probability of winning if you stay is 1/3.

 

[Gralin]

The monty hall problem is a brain breaker for sure

 

[Mofra]

Spoiler

The Monty Hall Problem is a famous probability puzzle named after Monty Hall, the host of the television game show "Let's Make a Deal."

The Probability Calculation:

• Initial choice: You pick a door. There’s a 1/3 chance that you’ve picked the car and a 2/3 chance that you’ve picked a goat.
• Monty’s action: Monty opens a door that’s not the car. If you’ve picked a goat (which happens with probability 2/3), Monty is forced to reveal the other goat, leaving the car behind the last unopened door.
• Switching: If you switch, you win if you originally picked a goat (which happens with probability 2/3).
• Staying: If you stay, you win if you originally picked the car (which happens with probability 1/3).

Thus, the probability of winning if you switch is 2/3, and the probability of winning if you stay is 1/3.

Spoiler: Spoiler - discussion

Another way of looking at it - your first selection was a 33.3% chance of winning a car.
If you switch, you are now selecting from 2 options, so your odds increase to a 50% chance.

 

[Frank Bunn]

Spoiler: Spoiler - discussion

Another way of looking at it - your first selection was a 33.3% chance of winning a car.
If you switch, you are now selecting from 2 options, so your odds increase to a 50% chance.

Spoiler

Then there would be no point in swapping. After the goat is revealed, if you swap your chance of success goes to 66.6%. If you stay, chances stay at the original 33.3%.

 

[Madas]

HOLIDAYS.

How good is it !!!

 

[Madas]

Spoiler

The Monty Hall Problem is a famous probability puzzle named after Monty Hall, the host of the television game show "Let's Make a Deal."

The Probability Calculation:

• Initial choice: You pick a door. There’s a 1/3 chance that you’ve picked the car and a 2/3 chance that you’ve picked a goat.
• Monty’s action: Monty opens a door that’s not the car. If you’ve picked a goat (which happens with probability 2/3), Monty is forced to reveal the other goat, leaving the car behind the last unopened door.
• Switching: If you switch, you win if you originally picked a goat (which happens with probability 2/3).
• Staying: If you stay, you win if you originally picked the car (which happens with probability 1/3).

Thus, the probability of winning if you switch is 2/3, and the probability of winning if you stay is 1/3.

Unless you really really always wanted a goat

 

[peternorth]

summer solstice. Longest day of the year. Plenty of sunlight tonight

 

[Mofra]

Spoiler

Then there would be no point in swapping. After the goat is revealed, if you swap your chance of success goes to 66.6%. If you stay, chances stay at the original 33.3%.

Spoiler

That's- the same thing. My post also indicates swapping is the correct choice

 

[MP_]

Unless you really really always wanted a goat

TheGoatBaron likes this

 

[The Golden Glenferrie]

My new next door neighbour. Loves dogs and said that she would look after my two anytime I want to go away. Also yelled out to me this morning saying that she was going down the street for coffee and did I want her to get me one.

Good for you. My neighbour is hard work. Always appears when i am outside. They're nice enough but its not for me

 

[Cruyff14]

How good is a fresh cut and a water? Then just admiring.

Would have to be in my top things in life.

 

[Gough]

That's a good looking lawn Cruffy.

 

[MrsEddieBetts]

I love how much men love their lawns, it’s so wholesome

 

[Cruyff14]

That's a good looking lawn Cruffy.

It is looking bloody elite. Up there with the best it's ever looked, considering I thought I'd lost it in about October. A great turnaround.

I love how much men love their lawns, it’s so wholesome

Just going out there to stand and look at it is one of my favourite things to do.

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

HOLIDAYS.

They are quite honestly elite

 

[Pakenhamsaint]

I love how much men love their lawns, it’s so wholesome

I'm guessing HBF keeps the lawn tidy like the photo.

 

[Gough]

It is looking bloody elite. Up there with the best it's ever looked, considering I thought I'd lost it in about October. A great turnaround.

Just going out there to stand and look at it is one of my favourite things to do.

They let us on the ground after the Test and the turf on the Adelaide Oval is to die for.

 

[Plugger35]

I moved into a second story unit this year with no lawns, just a couple of balconies out the front and the back which is great.

Balconies are low maintenance, I've had enough of lawns, lawnmowing was one of the chores I got as a kid for pocket money.

Lawns are only good if you have kids or pets and I don't have either, even then you can just take them down to the local park.

 

[Billy ray]

I miss the therapeutic nature of lawn mowing i dont currently have to do in the rented duplex villa i have been in for 18 months - just balconies, fake turf around pool and garden bed at front.

But seriously contemplating selling the sub tropical forest hideaway as im loving my free time not having to care for 3/4 acre.

 

[peternorth]

It is looking bloody elite. Up there with the best it's ever looked, considering I thought I'd lost it in about October. A great turnaround.

Just going out there to stand and look at it is one of my favourite things to do.

I hear if you keep looking at something it won’t grow. ie grass, crops, a snag, flowers, beans etc

 

[Frank Bunn]

Spoiler

That's- the same thing. My post also indicates swapping is the correct choice

Spoiler

You said to swap but your reason is invalid. You said swapping increases to a 50% chance. Not true. They increase to a 66.6% chance.

 

[Mofra]

Spoiler

You said to swap but your reason is invalid. You said swapping increases to a 50% chance. Not true. They increase to a 66.6% chance.

Spoiler

It's both, depending on which where you consider the decision making process begins.
If you consider it a continuation of the first decision, yes.
If you consider it a new decision, no.

This isn't a new thought-exercise.

 

[Frank Bunn]

Spoiler

It's both, depending on which where you consider the decision making process begins.
If you consider it a continuation of the first decision, yes.
If you consider it a new decision, no.

This isn't a new thought-exercise.

Swapping or sticking after Monty opens the door showing a goat is the 'new decision'. You said swapping increases your chances to 50%. That's false. A decision to swap increases your chances to 66.6%.

It's not a thought exercise. It was a real game show.