If we get any picks in the range of 5-9, then Geelong will absolutely be obligated to give something back in return (Pick 36 IMO). I still think Carlton's 9 for Papley ls the most likely possibility (for 24 and Future 1st: 14-18). It would mean that Sydney can get future picks for their academy kids (Points value of 1469 for 1770), they won't have Pick 9 to trade, and then they can just give up Pick 5 and your Pick 24 for Daniher. 9 and 14 to us, with Kelly and 36. In trade terms 14, 24 and Future 1st (2,927 points if you win the flag), for Kelly (values Kelly at 2427 points) and 36 (502 points). This is in line with last year's offer of 20, 22 and Future 2nd - 34 this year (2299 points). This would mean there's only a points difference of 128. Cats are getting what they want, you guys are getting what you want, and Sydney are getting what they want. Win win for everyone.
That looks as fair as it could get within reasonable expectations of pick swaps.