Traded Tim Kelly [traded with #57 and future 3rd to West Coast for #14, #24, #33 and future 1st]

[Scotland]

I wonder if GC's King will go through all this when he nominates St Kilda next year instead of asking to be sent to any Victorian club.

Surely "I want to play with my brother" would be considered too weak to specifically get to one of ten clubs.

Only done two years, he can go to any club in Melbourne. Not Geelong because that's 18 hours away by pogo stick.

 

[Procrastinator35]

Gaff to Hawthorn for pick 11.
Picks 11 & 14 to Geelong for Kelly....Pick 36 in return to West Coast.
Easy-Peasy, no so squeezy.

 

[darksquare]

Bare with me... work in progress.

Carlton:

IN: Jack Martin, Tom Papley
OUT: pick 9, 2020 Rd 2 pick

WC:

IN: Tim Kelly, pick 37
OUT: 14, 24, 2020 Rd 1 pick

Gold Coast:

IN: pick 17
OUT: Jack Martin

Sydney:

IN: Joe Daniher, pick 24, Carlton 2020 Rd 2 pick
OUT: pick 5, Tom Papley

Geel:

IN: pick 5, pick 9
OUT: Tim Kelly, pick 17

Essendon:

IN: pick 14, WC 2020 Rd 1 pick
OUT: Joe Daniher

I feel West Coast are slight losers in that deal. And Essendon would probably accept it, so long as it came with the reanimated clone of John Coleman.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

More and more coming out about Gaff and 14 now for TK. Bit surprised but Gaff's contract is a killer apparently.

Surely they would have the cap room for both? I don't buy it.

 

[Blueeygrey]

It really is the silly season. Gaff is a number four draft pick, club champion, AA, fourth in the Brownlow (this is highly relevant, it seems), with nine years of proven performance. And if we want to hand him over for Kelly, a number 24 pick with two years proven performance, we apparently have to chuck in another first?

Kelly is not worth two firsts if one of those is inside the top 10, that makes him more valuable than some of the biggest names in the league. He is worth two firsts if they are both in the teens.

Kelly has had a good roll in the Geelong side, minimal tackles, but high contested possessions and kicks goals. The contested possessions were from stoppages as Geelong had ruck problems. This can be negated by good kicking possession teams. Kelly's final performance was great, but at 25 and only 2 seasons behind him anything more than 2 first rounders is too much for an uncontracted player. The 2 top ten picks narrative is solely a Geelong marketing exercise off the back of his last game, hence all the media noise. An yes I really rate T. Kelly, but the framework for all this vitriol was laid by Geelong's media objectives.

 

[FreeTK]

Gaff to Hawthorn for pick 11.
Picks 11 & 14 to Geelong for Kelly....Pick 36 in return to West Coast.
Easy-Peasy, no so squeezy.

Pass the blunt.

I want to be that high.

 

[Gaffy Duck]

Gaff to Hawthorn for pick 11.
Picks 11 & 14 to Geelong for Kelly....Pick 36 in return to West Coast.
Easy-Peasy, no so squeezy.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

Gaff to Hawthorn for pick 11.
Picks 11 & 14 to Geelong for Kelly....Pick 36 in return to West Coast.
Easy-Peasy, no so squeezy.

So a contracted Gaff who’s not looking to leave is worth around half of an uncontracted Kelly who's already packed up his Geelong house?

 

[Peel67skin]

I wonder if GC's King will go through all this when he nominates St Kilda next year instead of asking to be sent to any Victorian club.

Surely "I want to play with my brother" would be considered too weak to specifically get to one of ten clubs.

I don't really mind because is better prepare the worse than keep saying the same over and over again. GCS bad trading is well known with Clayton currently with Eagles. Nobody will know whether Oscar Allen still available at Ainsworth(Eagles player) pick if Eagles pick Kelly ahead of Oscar. You take the risk then prepare the consequence. Don't blame other especially GCS, as you had multiple second Rd pick to get Tim Kelly.

 

[ibuprofen]

So a contracted Gaff who’s not looking to leave is worth around half of an uncontracted Kelly who's already packed up his Geelong house?

Yep. Gaff's contract is a back breaker. It's a shocker. I don't think you get that. Not only it's it expensive, it has no security for the club.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

How is this?

St Kilda lose: pick 6, Jack Steven
St Kilda gain: Brad Hill, pick 33

WC lose: pick 14, pick 24, pick 33, 2020 1st
WC gain: Tim Kelly, 2020 2nd

Freo lose: Brad Hill
Freo gain: pick 14, 2020 1st

Geelong lose: Tim Kelly, 2020 2nd
Geelong gain: pick 6, Jack Steven, pick 24

Its fair but Freo will be too worried a Henry bid comes 10-15. They will offer for kelly say 7 (assuming they get it for hill) + either whatever they get for langdon or a future 2nd or a player. That way 6 is live and they can match say a 10-20 bid on Henry with later points.

 

[DumbSmarts]

Out of curiousity, what is the highest value a player has been traded for? 2 first rounder plus whatever else Geelong has requested must be up there.

Off the top of my head Sheil was 2 firsts, Judd was Kennedy, pick 3 and pick 20, Danger wasn't much as it was a forced hand.

 

[Forward Press]

Gaff to Hawthorn for pick 11.
Picks 11 & 14 to Geelong for Kelly....Pick 36 in return to West Coast.
Easy-Peasy, no so squeezy.

Gaff + 14 for Kelly.

Jesus.

 

[FreeTK]

I feel West Coast are slight losers in that deal. And Essendon would probably accept it, so long as it came with the reanimated clone of John Coleman.

Bare with me... work in progress.

Carlton:

IN: Jack Martin, Tom Papley
OUT: pick 9, 2020 Rd 2 pick

WC:

IN: Tim Kelly, pick 37
OUT: 14, 24, 2020 Rd 1 pick

Gold Coast:

IN: pick 17
OUT: Jack Martin

Sydney:

IN: Joe Daniher, pick 24, Carlton 2020 Rd 2 pick
OUT: pick 5, Tom Papley

Geel:

IN: pick 5, pick 9
OUT: Tim Kelly, pick 17

Essendon:

IN: pick 14, WC 2020 Rd 1 pick
OUT: Joe Daniher

From a West Coast perspective, that is less than what I am willing to pay for Kelly.

Essendon would never. He is a Daniher. and they want 5+ more for even considering an injured Joe Daniher one year out from RFA.

Needs some tweaking

 

[Procrastinator35]

So a contracted Gaff who’s not looking to leave is worth around half of an uncontracted Kelly who's already packed up his Geelong house?

Pick 14 in exchange for 36 is not double pick 11.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

Yep. Gaff's contract is a back breaker. It's a shocker. I don't think you get that. Not only it's it expensive, it has no security for the club.

If that’s the case, then he’s worth much more to us than the draft pick we’d get for him. Just further proof that chucking him into trade suggestions is a waste of time.

 

[Shadow89]

Scotland Solid effort, and love what we get, but think Essendon won't be that happy with the Daniher trade (given it's Dodo we're dealing with here).

Thought I'd post this again, how do you think it stacks up (given they're quite similar) comparably?

***********************


Basically the simple breakdown, of all clubs and ins and outs included in this 8 club deal:

*********************

Sydney:

IN: Joe Daniher, West Coast Future 1st (14-18 assumed), Carlton Pick 42
OUT: Tom Papley, Zak Jones, Pick 9

'Cherry on top' part of deal - Currency for future academy picks. Essentially Daniher for Jones and Pick 9 (less paid), and WC Future 1st and 42 for Papley (less received) balances out.

**********************

Geelong:

IN: Jack Steven, West Coast Pick 9 & Pick 14,
OUT: Tim Kelly, Pick 36, Future 2nd

'Cherry on top' part of deal - First top 10 pick in a decade

**********************

West Coast:

IN: Tim Kelly, Geelong Pick 36
OUT: 14, 24 & Future 1st

'Cherry on top' part of deal - Only losing 14 and a Future 1st that is highly compromised by academy picks, while only dropping 12 places with a Pick swap of 24 > 36.

**********************

Carlton:

IN: Tom Papley, Jack Martin
OUT: Pick 9, 42, 47

'Cherry on top' part of deal - essentially 'splitting' Pick 9 to get Jack Martin for Sydney Future 2nd, instead of getting back something for 9

**********************

Essendon:

IN: Pick 5, Pick 24
OUT: Daniher

'Cherry on top' part of deal - Gain a top 5 pick for a player who has been injury prone for 2+ years, while losing nothing in draft position the other way

**********************

St Kilda:

IN: Brad Hill, Zak Jones, Geelong Future 2nd
OUT: Pick 6, St Kilda Future 2nd, Jack Steven

'Cherry on top' part of deal - Gain a Future 2nd rounder from Geelong instead of the rumoured Pick 54 on offer (upgrade of around 20-25 spots)

***********************

Gold Coast:

IN: Sydney Future 2nd, Carlton Pick 47
OUT: Jack Martin

'Cherry on top' part of deal - Sydney are rebuilding and Future 2nd could be in the low 20's, with 47 essentially able to be used on academy kids given lack of bidding made available by AFL

************************

Fremantle:

IN: Pick 6
OUT: Brad Hill

'Cherry on top' part of deal - Straight swap of Pick 6 with nothing going back, means Fremantle primed to pick up two of the gun WA talents on offer

************************

Similar to the merry go round of picks from last year, but can all be done in one trade and everyone is reasonably satisfied/everyone gets something they want, and everyone gets a 'cherry' so to speak.

 

[bird_man]

Apparently West Coast have approached the Saints about a pick swap. They are very keen to get a draft pick ahead of Freo so they can get the upper hand on the Cats.

Prepared to pay a good price for the pick.

Not sure the Saints will take the offer as it would o doubt cause friction in the Hill trade.

 

[ibuprofen]

Out of curiousity, what is the highest value a player has been traded for? 2 first rounder plus whatever else Geelong has requested must be up there.

Off the top of my head Sheil was 2 firsts, Judd was Kennedy, pick 3 and pick 20, Danger wasn't much as it was a forced hand.

Well not really. You are making the assumption that all first rounders are equal. It's the flaw in west coast logic.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

If the Eagles were to trade for 9 then I would think they package up picks 14 + 24 so they could offer 9 + 33. Last resort 9 + Future 1 with a second coming back.

Getting 9 will cost 24 and the future 1st though i think so that only leaves you 9 14 and 33 to deal.

 

[Pure_Ownage]

Apparently West Coast have approached the Saints about a pick swap. They are very keen to get a draft pick ahead of Freo so they can get the upper hand on the Cats.

Prepared to pay a good price for the pick.

Not sure the Saints will take the offer as it would o doubt cause friction in the Hill trade.

I dont think stk can do that and still get hill.

 

[DumbSmarts]

Well not really. You are making the assumption that all first rounders are equal. It's the flaw in west coast logic.

No I'm not, I'm just asking what the highest amount a club a traded to bring a player in.

 

[Scotland]

To be fair ive never got uppity about it so dont lump me in with the rest just because of what club i support (ive tried to do the same with you in return). Its a combination of a number of things..higher picks giving more options to Geelong at the draft..desire to have this years picks over next year...list spots etc..i would expect Geelong and WCE as good clubs are not far apart on what they see his value at..but its down to whether they can find a 3rd club willing to help seal the trade because a 2 club trade will be hard to make the value work on.

It still boils down to what WC have to work with and whether other clubs are willing to come to the party.

Some people seem to think that WC will just add as many moving parts as it takes to satisfy Geelong which just isn't how things go down. There is a practical limit to what any club can offer, and before that point you reach a limit where you consider if the trade is worthwhile.

 

[year of the cat]

How is this?

St Kilda lose: pick 6, Jack Steven
St Kilda gain: Brad Hill, pick 33

WC lose: pick 14, pick 24, pick 33, 2020 1st
WC gain: Tim Kelly, 2020 2nd

Freo lose: Brad Hill
Freo gain: pick 14, 2020 1st

Geelong lose: Tim Kelly, 2020 2nd
Geelong gain: pick 6, Jack Steven, pick 24

Geelong get 5 and 25
Geelong lose Kelly

West Coast get Kelly
West Coast lose 14, 24 and future 1st

Bulldogs get West Coast future 1st and 24
Bulldogs lose 13

Essendon get 13 and 14
Essendon lose Daniher

Sydney get Daniher
Sydney lose 5 and 25

Like both these efforts.

 

[masai]

Surely their into Masten instead? Just imagine how theyd feel having a premiership player on their list.

Got a couple already.