Werewolf Town of Salem Werewolf VIII (Day 1)

[ZergMinion]

Eth-dog would definitely have known the gaze trick, so either they chose not to use it or missed with it last night. Hopefully the latter.

 

[MWPP]

It’s not as hidden as you think. Serial goes on about it every single post game.

I’d suggest one of their five faction members would’ve already been exposed to it before and would know the possibility there.

Also if you were that against the strategy being common knowledge, you could’ve skated right over my post and you know, not drawn any attention to it? Same for Gralin.

So far if I were a betting man I’d be betting your evil.

Despite him supposedly going on about it all game it’s still hardly used. There are new names to me on this list too so I thought the opposite.

I think you’re evil and have been since you went from initiating me /joking around to helping evil with your first serious contribution

But I’m never one to vote for fellow active/present players off limited intel so my vote remains on ibb

If you think I’m evil too it probably just means we’re both good like all those other times

 

[MWPP]

I think you’re evil and have been since you went from initiating me /joking around to helping evil with your first serious contribution

Imitating

 

[Tarkyn_24]

I’ve gone down the players list, and there’s at least fifteen conservatively that I’d say would know of the strategy. You’re the probability queen MWPP , you tell me what the chances are a faction of five would have none of those players?

 

[MWPP]

Eth-dog would definitely have known the gaze trick, so either they chose not to use it or missed with it last night. Hopefully the latter.

Speaking of eth dog, who do we think he would have targeted n1?
I have to assume that the ambusher guarded a teammate so it might give a clue about the mafia’s identity
Also on reflection it means eth probably opted to attack or glean info over heal (unless the action was changed via some other mechanism)

Likewise- who might target thegoatbaron might 1?

I haven’t played enough lately to answer either question but both are worth considering

 

[Gralin]

You both want to pretend that they’re powerless.

It’s clearly not the case. If I were Coven I’d love everyone to think I couldn’t do anything when I actually can. You’re feeding that.

Where have I said they're powerless?

 

[The Majestic]

Speaking of eth dog, who do we think he would have targeted n1?
I have to assume that the ambusher guarded a teammate so it might give a clue about the mafia’s identity
Also on reflection it means eth probably opted to attack or glean info over heal (unless the action was changed via some other mechanism)

Likewise- who might target thegoatbaron might 1?

I haven’t played enough lately to answer either question but both are worth considering

I'd wonder who would target TheGoatBaron as well, since he's still pretty new to the game and all. I don't think he was doing much to get a target on his back either. So it was a strange one.

 

[Tarkyn_24]

Where have I said they're powerless?

It was the context to which I made my original post in rebuttal of?

 

[Gralin]

It was the context to which I made my original post in rebuttal of?

You mean bluelegs post?

 

[MWPP]

I’ve gone down the players list, and there’s at least fifteen conservatively that I’d say would know of the strategy. You’re the probability queen MWPP , you tell me what the chances are a faction of five would have none of those players?

Knowing is one thing
Understanding , and also Active /invested enough to use it is another
I had it at less (taking into account the above) but if you reckon it’s 15 then fair enough
- 5%

 

[por_please_ya]

So far if I were a betting man I’d be betting your evil.

Feeling a tad suss myself.

 

[ZergMinion]

I'd wonder who would target TheGoatBaron as well, since he's still pretty new to the game and all. I don't think he was doing much to get a target on his back either. So it was a strange one.

TGB is hilarious so I assume he was murdered by an enemy of joy.

 

[FootyBot13]

I’ve gone down the players list, and there’s at least fifteen conservatively that I’d say would know of the strategy. You’re the probability queen MWPP , you tell me what the chances are a faction of five would have none of those players?

0.796568627% or a rough 1 in 125 chance.

 

[Tarkyn_24]

You mean bluelegs post?

This whole exchange (but primarily the first two posts in it):

Did Coven miss a hit or is it like others and they kill every second night? Trying to catch up while at work.

Depends on which other two roles bar poisoner they had but essentially neither leader nor Medusa nor poisoner have an automatic instant kill on the opening night
(Eth may have poisoned someone, time will tell)

That faction has always been the one that becomes stronger with time

I thought they don't get a standard kill? They have some roles with unique powers that can kill though. The Coven Leader has a control power.

Pie 4 Life I just checked and since the Coven Leader starts with the Necronomicon they should have been able to deal a 'basic attack' to someone last night.

You and MWPP both cleared up the Necronimicon component of Bluelegs’ posts above otherwise I also would’ve addressed that too.

 

[ZergMinion]

I love maths nerdery as much as the next person but we already know they had eth-dog so the probability is 0%

 

[Tarkyn_24]

I love maths nerdery as much as the next person but we already know they had eth-dog so the probability is 0%

In to be the next person.

I hate maths nerdery.

 

[Bluelegs]

0.796568627% or a rough 1 in 125 chance.

Without checking I have a feeling this is wrong.

 

[manangatang]

Necronimicon just sounds like a dead Comicon to me.

I'm a very confused boy.

 

[Tarkyn_24]

Necronimicon just sounds like a dead Comicon to me.

I'm a very confused boy.

Please don’t come at us with your gender.

 

[The Majestic]

TGB is hilarious so I assume he was murdered by an enemy of joy.

Yeah that could very well be it.

 

[MWPP]

0.796568627% or a rough 1 in 125 chance.

Without checking I have a feeling this is wrong.

Unless FB has intel they aren't sharing with us and excluded the info about the other people (in addition to themselves), yeah, it's wrong

If we don't exclude anyone (and I didn't, as excluding makes assumptions about who was on Tarks' list but also means the odds are different for the reporter v the rest) then it's
(21/36)(20/35)(19/34)(18/33)(17/32) = 0.0539 so I stand by my 5% ballpark

 

[Gralin]

TGB is hilarious so I assume he was murdered by an enemy of joy.

Why don't you just tag Raz next time

 

[Gralin]

Ok maybe after reading that math the real enemy of joy is MWPP

 

[MWPP]

I love maths nerdery as much as the next person but we already know they had eth-dog so the probability is 0%

I had eth in the not active/engaged enough camp but he could be different these days

 

[FootyBot13]

Without checking I have a feeling this is wrong.

Are you insinuating that I misread Tark's post and accidentally calculated the chance of all 5 of the faction having this knowledge, therefore becoming an example of why I shouldn't spam threads and post everything that pops into my head?

If so, you're right, it's 5.4% or a 1 in 18.5 chance but doesn't I forgive you.