Mega Thread Trade and List Management discussion

[TedDougChris]

Alright heck it

That's the spirit !!

 

[ThirdLegUp]

I know I've said it numerous times that I can't see us trading any father son players but would anyone here be disappointed if we did go Wallis and 6 for 3? I know facebook page is ridiculous but mentioned dees have inquired about Dahlhaus and Wallis.

No, but we can send them a picture of sid with the autographs of all our youngsters, with a place holder for who ever we take with pick 6.

 

[Roscoe_au]

Time to move on. Had my dinner, sat on the loo for 20mins reading this forum and some emails.

 

[Ant_]

Not much difference between the Frawley result and a priority pick. Melbourne knew it was coming. That's why they stopped the media circus around it and dropped the subject.

Yeah I know but that's the AFL propping up a team they manage. Melb still have that shit losing culture Schwab and co created (as Roos said himself). Will not be a short term fix for them and I'd rather be in our shoes then theirs. Overplayed for Clark & Dawes and pissed away countless 1st Rnd draft picks.

 

[StringyDog]

5 top 30 draft picks goes a long way doing that. Upgrade another Rookie and get a couple more rookies.

Problem with that is all our other rookies are shithouse, no point upgrading as just gets another list clogger more years

 

[fronkalicious]

I think with Melbourne getting this pick, we need to go long term and head to the draft. They're going to peak around the same time as us, I'd hate to go down to them.

Can anyone clarify something for me... If we decide to play hardball and let liam Jones walk to the draft. Can we re draft him? Even against his will?

Yes we can. If he doesn't want to sign with us, he has to sit out.

And the dees did ask for dal. Garlick confirmed it in one of his many interviews last week.

 

[fronkalicious]

Norf want a pick between 8-15 for greenwood as well according to their board.

 

[VitalDread]

Norf want a pick between 8-15 for greenwood as well according to their board.

which is kinda understandable if he had great season before this break out year.

 

[TedDougChris]

Norf want a pick between 8-15 for greenwood as well according to their board.

Let Collingwood pay that then....

 

[mambavino]

Norf want a pick between 8-15 for greenwood as well according to their board.

This is the same club that think Higgins at $400k x 4 years is a good deal. Not surprised to be honest.

 

[dergert]

Yes we can. If he doesn't want to sign with us, he has to sit out.

And the dees did ask for dal. Garlick confirmed it in one of his many interviews last week.

Well we should do that if we don't get a second round for him then imo. Highly unlikely though.
What's your opinion on how we should approach trade week?

 

[lindsay_bulldogs]

Yes we can. If he doesn't want to sign with us, he has to sit out.

And the dees did ask for dal. Garlick confirmed it in one of his many interviews last week.

Don't forget he gets to dictate the price in the PSD. Therefore if we pick him again its at the price he puts on himself.

 

[_Mike_]

Tired of the AFL administration ****ing us over year after year... Its becoming more and more evident that they actually want us to fail over time and use us as another super merger team.

 

[Doggies7]

Hawthorn have officially been nominated as Frawley's choice. This is great, as long as the AFL don't do anything dodgy to try and help the Dees, i'm confident it WILL NOT be band 1 compo. The Hawks coming off a premiership are just not going to shell out a 600-700K 5+ year contract for a good key defender. He is coming for a nice salary of around 500K and to be in a winning team around great players.

Put me in the red faces thread but pick 5 is safe.

Whoops

 

[TedDougChris]

Whoops

At least you're honest enough to admit your mistakes.

Would love for Gordon to ask to see the contracts and the categorisation for FA compensation selections - to at least keep the system honest....

 

[doggies ftw]

Whoops

I thought the same

 

[fronkalicious]

Well we should do that if we don't get a second round for him then imo. Highly unlikely though.
What's your opinion on how we should approach trade week?

Get a bunch of picks inside the top 30 and draft draft draft.

I don't think we'd even use the blues 3rd rounder unless we move a bunch of our picks.

6
26
27
43
Cordy

That's plenty of 18 year olds. Think we'd upgrade Jong (obviously) redpath and then take a delisted free agent or Darley/young style trade. So I can absolutely see us forcing jones into the psd.

 

[Guido]

Well just did the the numbers on those selections. Since 2000 and excluding the last 2 drafts there is 68% chance of getting a decent player using picks 4 to 7. Picks 16,19,25,26,27 and 42 gives us a 65% chance of nailing decent players, but given the greater exposure to the draft that might or might be favorable.

The downside is that picks 1 to 5 gives you a 90% chance of nailing it. Take out picks 1 and 2 and it's still 80%. Top 5 picks really are gold.

Great analysis, but IMO another thing to take into account is not only blokes that make it, but blokes that turn into superstars.

Picks 1-5, very rough calculation, 20%-25% will turn out to be superstars - blokes you can easily argue are in the top 10 of the comp for most of their careers. And other than number 1, there's not that much difference between picks 2-5 (Franklin, Pendlebury taken with the latter).

Compare that to the next range, picks 6-15, and there's a handful of blokes across the last 15 drafts (Selwood, Bartel, Dangerfield, Wingard on his way, hopefully ditto for Macrae) that you would say have turned into superstars, about 3-4%. Actually, on a very rough analysis, for picking up elites, you're almost better off with picks between 16-38 (Fyfe, Ward, number of other AA standard players there) rather than 6-15. Not in terms of the actual percentage/chance of picking them up, but the quality of when you actually do.

 

[_Mike_]

Shits me that Melbourne now have picks 2 & 3.. They should have been given a pick to compensate at the end of round 1, not any time before. Its now looking highly unlikely that we'll get any of the KPF's we're after

 

[Pannalstaroz]

Fair enough, sorry.

I brought up on the other board that I think 6 & 26 would be a fair trade for pick 3, just thought I'd throw that up here to see what you guys thought. You guys have some amazing young players coming through, you should definitely hold on to them.

I'd do 6 & 26 in a heartbeat. But I don't think that would dot it....

 

[fronkalicious]

Said it before and will say it again. 3rd team.

 

[_Mike_]

Relax doggies! Now that the dees have pick 3 it is more likely that we can now trade up. Which I am very confident will happen. We've made it clear that we are going to be bold for a KF. It will happen - might just need a third club involved. One of wright or McCartin will be a dog in 2015. Just have faith in our recruiting staff.

you've got too much faith young man.. too much faith and dreams...

 

[cammo78]

I'd do 6 & 26 in a heartbeat. But I don't think that would dot it....

6, 25 & 26.

 

[Ant_]

Interesting that Tristan believes the number to be close to only 500k

 

[womble54]

I don't like Melb pick 3 but what I truely don't get is;

Higgins - 4 years @ $400k - Band 3
Frawley - 4 years @ $600k - Band 1

What the hell is band 2 then? Must be a very very specific little band in a little land of its own. Players at 4 years between $450 and $550k??? Is that it?

The only consistency out of afl house is that everyone in there is a campaigner.