Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 2 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[Flags_In_The_Bag]

Bruce 36 goals from 22 games this season. Far from an elite FF but would be handy. Wouldn’t want to throw too much cash at him

Add another at least 15 if he played for the dogs instead of the Saints.

 

[footyfan000001]

Martin is ridiculously talented. He’s an outside player, doesn’t surprise me he’s struggled at the suns. Would fit in beautifully at the kennel.

 

[Flags_In_The_Bag]

It's fair dinkum

So its him you speak of, is it not...lol

 

[Fossie 32]

They have been for most of this season.

I was more so referring to the actual 22. Getting the balance right.
I have no issue with any of our squad playing in the twos as it means they aren’t doing enough or our best side is really strong, so however it plays out is ok with me.

Toyd, Picken, Morris......

 

[TMoney22]

We need some currency to get Keath and Martin. Wallis to Geelong makes sense to me. He will get more opportunities there in the long run. Can't just push him out but only if he wants to rather than being stuck as a small Forward.

Get in the Kelly deal...
WC get Kelly, Cats #32
Cats get Wallis, WC #14
Dogs get WC #22

Then use it for Keath...
#22 and Williams for Keath and 2020 3rd

#12 and Jong for Martin

Still have picks 30, 41, 46, 48 to play with.

Wood Keath Duryea
JJ Cordy Crozier
Hunter Bont Martin
McLean Schache Smith
Lloyd Naughton Dale

English Macrae Dunks

Lapinski Richards Suckling Libba

 

[giblj]

Could be getting dangerously close to having decent key position stocks here, I'm a bit scared and confused by it all tbh

 

[Braybrook Son]

Remember where you were when you heard me tell you we’re getting CONIGLIO!

 

[dogspur]

He approached the Dogs. Sees us as the perfect fit for him and us. Knows we are cashed up.

[citation needed]

 

[Ash1337]

The reason Martin maybe dropped could be nothing to do with playing ability. Most likely didn't want to have players playing that are going to leave. Having 3 tall forwards would be good. Especially as 2 have huge tanks already.

On SM-G977B using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[grassman75]

Libba & Wallis are heart and soul players and could have a dramatic influence on locker room/playing group. Jong could go but don't see the point in trading two father sons after working so hard to keep them only a short while ago.

I actually think Wallis would be happy to stay and play VFL and assist with player development. I don't think it's all about the bright lights for him. Not sure if there is any truth in it, but I did hear that his foot injury could also mean he chooses to retire...

 

[Doggy Dan]

You forgot Lewy Young. 198 cm and going to be a great KPP.

Lewy is far from being physically ready. He’s got pretty chunky thighs and a bit of a duck walk about him.

What he is doing now is as an underdeveloped KPD is extraordinary, will be a gun.

 

[bobs head soup]

Trade Bailey Dale NOW that he has some CURRENCY. Fergus Greene is BETTER and YOUNGER.

Ridiculous theories have more VALIDITY when some words are In CAPITALS?

 

[bobs head soup]

Any other Smiths out there we can recruit, so we get the full set? Crows have one, don’t they?

Rohan looks like he's still in decent shape?

 

[Doggy Dan]

TBH the only thing propping up Martins value is all the gushing over him in his draft year as a generational player........I heard the same thing before about a generational forward and he was pretty bog average aside from a couple of games. On exposed form and not previous media hype, speculation and bias - Martin is not worth $750k.

 

[bobs head soup]

I’m sorry, but give me Dale any day over Martin. Martin doesn’t kick bags. Dale does

In fairness to Jack, Bailey Dale wouldn't be kicking bags either if he was being asked to play as an inside mid for the Suns.

 

[Bro_Pro]

Reading (skimming) through this thread I wonder whether we are sufficiently on the same page as Sam Power and the rest of the WB footy brains trust.

A lot of what I read here is about who might be available, who's requested a trade and what holes we have to fill to be more competitive in 2020. These are all legitimate topics but surely Power has a much bigger canvas and that bigger picture with perhaps a 3-year horizon would influence all of his post-season strategy for this year (trades, free agents, draft picks, de-listings, re-signings, TPP budgeting, points management). A lot of posts have referred to the need to manage our points for next year so that's commendable forward thinking but it goes much further than that.

I won't attempt to map it out in detail now (and maybe it's impossible anyway as I don't have enough inside information) but with a little bit of reflection I think we should all be able to grasp that the strategy is a lot more complex than just trying to get a couple of quality players over the line in October.

One difficulty with a 3-year+ plan for an AFL list is the volatility of contingencies, especially for the 2nd and 3rd years out. And beyond. These factors include:

• unexpected injuries to current best 22 players (consider what's happened to Libba, Wallis, Picken, etc)
• unexpected departures / offloads of those we had expected to be long term players (eg Tom Boyd, Joel Hamling, Marcus Adams, Stringer, Dahlhaus, Roughead)
• top 30 picks failing to reach expectations for whatever reasons (eg Howard, Collins, Hrovat, Ayce Cordy)
• later draft picks exceeding expectations (eg Dale, Dickson, Young, Daniel)
• how FS and NGA picks might actually turn out and how soon they will become best 22, if at all (especially high end prospects like McPherson and Ugle-Hagan)
• whether the AFL will change the NGA and FS rules

Despite all these uncertainties there is still a strong benefit in Power & co mapping where we are going. Typical issues that need to be considered:

• How will our list look in 2022? Will it have the desired age and experience balance?
• Who needs to be replaced and should we be looking at grooming those replacements now? (we are almost uniquely fortunate in that nearly all our best players are aged 20-26!)
• When do we need to have lots of draft points available for the FS and NGA prospects coming through?
• How will we manage our trade assets and draft points from one year to the next? Can we afford to trade future draft picks, or do we perhaps need to start hoarding future picks?
• In what areas do we have exposure due to insufficient depth even if we currently have a good first option? (eg ruck, KPF)
• Do we need to bring in well-regarded senior players as mentors for future indigenous draftees and trades?
• Will we have any wiggle room in the TPP if we have an opportunity - possibly unexpected - to acquire an elite player?
• Which big contracts are coming up for "untouchable" players and how much should we budget?
• Who is coming up for FA in the next 3 years and what's our strategy for managing them?
• Do we have a list clogger problem and how do we flush it out?

... and so on.

The point of all this is that unless we have an idea - or our own imagined version - of what Power's long term strategy looks like then we are just throwing darts at the board blindfolded. It's multi-layered and complex. You can't just say "grab player x in exchange for a first rounder and steak knives coming back" without considering so many other facets of the longer term plan.

Maybe the fantasy trading/drafting is legit and fun to indulge in, but generally I skip over those posts pretty quickly.

I do like to read here about what attributes various players might bring and who could be on the market ... because we might well find one or two of those players are on our books in a few months time. However I suspect most of us (me included) have no real idea what Power's short to medium term game plan is.

That's probably why we say each year: "Trengove? WTF?" "Lloyd? Never expected that - he's only got a couple of years left", "Gardner? What was Power thinking?" "Duryea? We're already stacked with HBFs, what could a Hawthorn fringe player bring?"

Awesome post

 

[mattwa]

Think the contract being floated to martin may be overblown. Regardless if we front load it for next year it won't hurt moving forward. Think he is our long term dicko replacement as our smart forward with goal sense. Perfectly fits the role and will be super dangerous sharking naughton and has really sticky hands

 

[Northernsoul74]

The speculation has been that Bruce is gettable because you guys are in the market for some big names and may need to clear some space. Only going on that supposition

I think it’s more they need trade assets as in picks to do their own trades.

 

[Philthy1]

Ridiculous theories have more VALIDITY when some words are In CAPITALS?

Scrag and Fergus are related


On iPhone using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[Norm De Guerre]

Remember where you were when you heard me tell you we’re getting CONIGLIO!

Great! Whenever I see him playing for the dogs I'll be able to cast my mind back to todays bowel movement. Hence forth to be known as a CONIGLIO!

 

[Libba39]

Is Martin worth paying overs for?? Is he that good??

If Dickson retires (seems likely) we still have Maclean, Dale, Lloyd, Cavarra, R.Smith, B.Smith, Gowers, Wallis, Lipinksi and Greene who are all small or Medium forwards or mid/fwd. Do we really need another one?

Hunter, Macrae, JJ on the Wings.

I just don't see the point in paying top dollar for another player to add to the above group.

Said it before and will say it again, we need a tall defender and a (192+) utility player much more than we need Jack Martin.

 

[fronkalicious]

Reading (skimming) through this thread I wonder whether we are sufficiently on the same page as Sam Power and the rest of the WB footy brains trust.

A lot of what I read here is about who might be available, who's requested a trade and what holes we have to fill to be more competitive in 2020. These are all legitimate topics but surely Power has a much bigger canvas and that bigger picture with perhaps a 3-year horizon would influence all of his post-season strategy for this year (trades, free agents, draft picks, de-listings, re-signings, TPP budgeting, points management). A lot of posts have referred to the need to manage our points for next year so that's commendable forward thinking but it goes much further than that.

I won't attempt to map it out in detail now (and maybe it's impossible anyway as I don't have enough inside information) but with a little bit of reflection I think we should all be able to grasp that the strategy is a lot more complex than just trying to get a couple of quality players over the line in October.

One difficulty with a 3-year+ plan for an AFL list is the volatility of contingencies, especially for the 2nd and 3rd years out. And beyond. These factors include:

• unexpected injuries to current best 22 players (consider what's happened to Libba, Wallis, Picken, etc)
• unexpected departures / offloads of those we had expected to be long term players (eg Tom Boyd, Joel Hamling, Marcus Adams, Stringer, Dahlhaus, Roughead)
• top 30 picks failing to reach expectations for whatever reasons (eg Howard, Collins, Hrovat, Ayce Cordy)
• later draft picks exceeding expectations (eg Dale, Dickson, Young, Daniel)
• how FS and NGA picks might actually turn out and how soon they will become best 22, if at all (especially high end prospects like McPherson and Ugle-Hagan)
• whether the AFL will change the NGA and FS rules

Despite all these uncertainties there is still a strong benefit in Power & co mapping where we are going. Typical issues that need to be considered:

• How will our list look in 2022? Will it have the desired age and experience balance?
• Who needs to be replaced and should we be looking at grooming those replacements now? (we are almost uniquely fortunate in that nearly all our best players are aged 20-26!)
• When do we need to have lots of draft points available for the FS and NGA prospects coming through?
• How will we manage our trade assets and draft points from one year to the next? Can we afford to trade future draft picks, or do we perhaps need to start hoarding future picks?
• In what areas do we have exposure due to insufficient depth even if we currently have a good first option? (eg ruck, KPF)
• Do we need to bring in well-regarded senior players as mentors for future indigenous draftees and trades?
• Will we have any wiggle room in the TPP if we have an opportunity - possibly unexpected - to acquire an elite player?
• Which big contracts are coming up for "untouchable" players and how much should we budget?
• Who is coming up for FA in the next 3 years and what's our strategy for managing them?
• Do we have a list clogger problem and how do we flush it out?

... and so on.

The point of all this is that unless we have an idea - or our own imagined version - of what Power's long term strategy looks like then we are just throwing darts at the board blindfolded. It's multi-layered and complex. You can't just say "grab player x in exchange for a first rounder and steak knives coming back" without considering so many other facets of the longer term plan.

Maybe the fantasy trading/drafting is legit and fun to indulge in, but generally I skip over those posts pretty quickly.

I do like to read here about what attributes various players might bring and who could be on the market ... because we might well find one or two of those players are on our books in a few months time. However I suspect most of us (me included) have no real idea what Power's short to medium term game plan is.

That's probably why we say each year: "Trengove? WTF?" "Lloyd? Never expected that - he's only got a couple of years left", "Gardner? What was Power thinking?" "Duryea? We're already stacked with HBFs, what could a Hawthorn fringe player bring?"

Of course all of that is true DW and we don’t have access to almost all of the relevant information to make list decisions.

But what we do know, and what has been discussed here, is the following:

1. The list needs to get older
2. We need picks/points for NGA and potential father/son in 2020.
3. We have an extraordinary amount of cap space

With all that in mind, surely this is the year to trade our picks and fill needs.

And our needs are:

1. Key defender
2. Small forward
3. Key forward depth.
4. Outside run/class

Which is why guys like Keath, martin, AMT, Isaac smith, Florent and Bruce are being discussed here.

 

[Golden_6]

I think a realistic off season would be bringing in Keath, Isaac Smith & Bruce. I'm less concerned about bringing in forwards now that it is functioning effectively and we have guys like Greene & Cavarra waiting in the wings. I'd target a pacy forward type with our first pick, a Flanders or Weightman type.

If we can get the following 3 guys for a combined $1.5 million, then I think we should do it.

Keath - 2020 2nd Plus 48
Smith - Pick 41
Bruce - Pick 30 & Pick 46

 

[Dazb86]

Not sure I understand the hype surrounding Martin. Has had time to prove himself with mediocre results. Bailey Smith for example has had a better year than him.

 

[fronkalicious]

I think a realistic off season would be bringing in Keath, Isaac Smith & Bruce. I'm less concerned about bringing in forwards now that it is functioning effectively and we have guys like Greene & Cavarra waiting in the wings. I'd target a pacy forward type with our first pick, a Flanders or Weightman type.

If we can get the following 3 guys for a combined $1.5 million, then I think we should do it.

Keath - 2020 2nd Plus 48
Smith - Pick 41
Bruce - Pick 30 & Pick 46

Where would you play Bruce my man? It’s a tricky one.

Both smith and Bruce would be salary dumps, so I agree they wouldn’t cost the world via trade.