Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 5 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[Mantis Toboggan]

When do Norf or WC come out and say they’ll take Dunkley if he is available in the PSD?

I think I’d love him going to WC even more than North.

This affair is bringing out quite the sadist in me. I genuinely hope the lad has less quality time with those he loves.

 

[Dogman 1]

Think I would trade lobb for bevo.

 

[doggiesin08]

It’s not like we seduced Lobb into breaking his contract & then couldn’t get a deal done - ala Essendon.

We’re doing him a favour to get him back to Melbourne so if Freo don’t want to deal that sucks for us & Lobb but I don’t think it’s fair to say we need to commit at any cost.

I suspect it gets done and he’ll be a very good pickup

Sorry, bit of a rant …

We approached Lobb with the background context that he’d been told by Freo they would be prepared to trade him back east. We still offered a fair rather than predatory price but Freo have said they want overs because he’s (a) under contract and (b) crucial to their structures. That’s all fine but then why even bother telling the player you’ll facilitate their move. 99% of players in the league are trade-able if getting overs is a condition.

Perhaps we also thought Freo would kindly remember us not being campaigners when Hamling wanted to head home to WA and we gave them a 23 year-old in-form premiership fullback for pick #35 (who performed very well until injury).

People saying we’re being hypocritical between the Brisbane and Freo trades miss these points. Yes we all have tinted glasses on but based on precedent (what else is there) we are offering fair prices and demanding fair prices … and then being told we’re hypocritical because we won’t accept unders and pay overs.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

Speaking on SEN, Dockers great Paul Hasleby backed up club list boss David Walls’ claim that if a player nominate to return to Victoria, they shouldn’t be able to choose which
That’s an interesting point because if the Dockers open it up to every Victorian club ... there’s nine clubs in Melbourne and one down the road in Geelong,” he said.

I actually don't understand what Haselby's point is here, given the players are entitled to refuse contracts. What's the practical difference if Lobb was "prevented" from nominating a club but simply rejects 9 Victorian clubs' contracts except the Bulldogs?

Agree it's not always a good look, but until we have an NBA system where all out of contract players are free agents, clubs can trade players anywhere without permission, but you still get the same money, it's literally an impossible thing to implement.

 

[Spiritof82]

I think I’d love him going to WC even more than North.

This affair is bringing out quite the sadist in me. I genuinely hope the lad has less quality time with those he loves.

Where ever he goes he'll get quality time with the thing he loves $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

 

[ScragCity]

I don't think the Lobb deal will get done. We think 30 is a fair price, while Freo probably think something closer to 20 is a fair price. I just don't see how we close that chasm from 30 to 20. Sadly, I think it's just a bridge too far, and both clubs should go our separate ways.

 

[Mantis Toboggan]

Just having a look at the Freo board and plenty of them saying 21 would not be enough. Even some saying Pick 11 isn’t enough, but that it would have to be accepted.

I do understand their point, he’s an important and contracted player. But Freo must have, at some point, given him the impression that they would facilitate a ‘reasonable’ trade. This isn’t like the Dunkley to Essendon saga where we had no intention of letting him go unless they paid overs.

If Freo genuinely want silly value for him then I think we have to tell Rory we tried, but they really want to keep you.

 

[W W Biscuit]

I don't think the Lobb deal will get done. We think 30 is a fair price, while Freo probably think something closer to 20 is a fair price. I just don't see how we close that chasm from 30 to 20. Sadly, I think it's just a bridge too far, and both clubs should go our separate ways.

And Freo will need to content themselves with receiving next to nothing at the end of next season when Lobb is nearly 31 and out of contract. He'd want to have at least as good a season for the Dockers as he had this year to be anywhere near their asking price. If he falls off even a little, it's a third rounder at best. You'd think that they'd want to sell high with that in mind, which is what pick 30 is considering his likely trade value twelve months hence.

 

[darooda]

I actually don't understand what Haselby's point is here, given the players are entitled to refuse contracts. What's the practical difference if Lobb was "prevented" from nominating a club but simply rejects 9 Victorian clubs' contracts except the Bulldogs?

Agree it's not always a good look, but until we have an NBA system where all out of contract players are free agents, clubs can trade players anywhere without permission, but you still get the same money, it's literally an impossible thing to implement.

Agree on this one and unsurprisingly Dockers obviously weren’t complaining when Wilson, lobb, Clarke and now Corbett are nominating them as their preferred destination.


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[ossie_21]

Just having a look at the Freo board and plenty of them saying 21 would not be enough. Even some saying Pick 11 isn’t enough, but that it would have to be accepted.

I do understand their point, he’s an important and contracted player. But Freo must have, at some point, given him the impression that they would facilitate a ‘reasonable’ trade. This isn’t like the Dunkley to Essendon saga where we had no intention of letting him go unless they paid overs.

If Freo genuinely want silly value for him then I think we have to tell Rory we tried, but they really want to keep you.

Freo fans confirmed to be nuffies

 

[darooda]

And Freo will need to content themselves with receiving next to nothing at the end of next season when Lobb is nearly 31 and out of contract. He'd want to have at least as good a season for the Dockers as he had this year to be anywhere near their asking price. If he falls off even a little, it's a third rounder at best. You'd think that they'd want to sell high with that in mind, which is what pick 30 is considering his likely trade value twelve months hence.

Peter bell always talks a strong game and continues to reference getting feathers in his cap (although I can’t see him collecting too many over the years). Previous trades where they have taken a hard stance has seen them buckle later in the trade period. I think they paid overs to get him across there in the first place so a second round pick is fair.


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[Smiley Boy]

We won’t be trading 21 if we get it for Lobb it’s all posturing and freo will accept 30 once they get Jackson

 

[Dogsman16]

Not the end of the world if we miss Lobb.

I'm sure if Darcy has some early wow moments in 2023 up forward we wouldn't even remember trying to chase this bloke.

Pick 21 is far too important to give up (if we get it that is).

This is a strong draft and there is every chance a club trades a future first if a slider still sits there.

 

[Al dente]

if we dont get Lobb, we need a plan B, we cant go into 2023 with just English and Sweet again, it would absolutely do my head in

 

[Norm De Guerre]

I see the headlines now...

'Bitter Bulldogs refuse to deal'

'Pickering slams Dogs for blocking Dunkley trade'

'Sad Dunkley denied Brisbane wish'

...and the world shrugs.

 

[TiAn_]

if we dont get Lobb, we need a plan B, we cant go into 2023 with just English and Sweet again, it would absolutely do my head in

Especially now we’ve lost our first choice forward/ruck in Cordy.

 

[doggiesin08]

if we dont get Lobb, we need a plan B, we cant go into 2023 with just English and Sweet again, it would absolutely do my head in

Get onboard the Schache KPF / 2nd Ruck train … running random weekends in March and April, disappearing for 7-8 weeks, returning for 3 weeks in July and then going away forever again.

Note: I actually like Schache. He’s no star but he was a better 2nd tall to partner with Naughton than Cordy or Buku at times.

 

[Doggy Dan]

The all or nothing avenue of making the trade or going PSD does not really help anyone in this situation. It leads to combative negotiations rather than a collegiate ones.

I know there is mediation attempted but it’s still up to the clubs. The AFL have power across FA compo, priority picks, salary caps, list concessions, etc. There is no reason that if an equitable trade can not be agreed to by all parties by the deadline it couldn’t go to AFL. If player and the poaching club agree they want to proceed with a trade it goes to an AFL arbiter to make a decision on the trade (could only be draft picks for player, not paying portions of salaries, etc but AFL could make up its own mind about future picks, etc not bound by existing restrictions). In this case the AFL wouldn’t factor in Brissie needing draft points at all (nor should it be a factor) so you would imagine Brissie would not wouldn’t want this outcome. The Dogs would want it as the current offer is not market value. This would lead to all trades needing to get much closer to equilibrium without the guillotine of PSD hanging over the existing clubs head.

This model would mean fairer deals and more clarity for all clubs and players. Managers would start considering if trades are achievable prior to getting their clients to nominate. In this case the convo with Brissie and Pickers could have been “if you nominate us we promise to you get here either way” or “if we can’t do a deal with the Dogs directly we will not pursue the trade via the AFL so you should consider that prior to nominating us”.

No deal gets done the player then provides a list to the AFL in order of preferred clubs with their terms. The first club on this list that agrees to take them at their terms agrees to the AFL choosing the trade value.

Any holes in this?

 

[flipper83]

Lobb has just had the best season of his career at 29 years of age and still kicked less goals than Sam Lloyd

22

Sam Lloyd

Age

34

Ht

180cm

Wt

81kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

13.3

3star

K

8.8

3star

HB

4.5

3star

M

4.2

4star

T

2.6

4star

G

1.3

5star

D

6.8

1star

K

4.0

1star

HB

2.8

2star

M

2.5

3star

T

2.8

4star

G

0.3

3star

D

14.0

4star

K

8.4

4star

HB

5.6

4star

M

3.6

4star

T

4.4

5star

G

1.4

5star

did a couple of years ago.

He averages a goal a game and is a very average player. He has some value structurally but the way Freo are carrying on it's like he's Pavlich.

Pick 30 for a player with a couple of years left in him is more than fair. I really hope we don't end up paying more than that.

 

[TiAn_]

I don't think the Lobb deal will get done. We think 30 is a fair price, while Freo probably think something closer to 20 is a fair price. I just don't see how we close that chasm from 30 to 20. Sadly, I think it's just a bridge too far, and both clubs should go our separate ways.

It’s touch and go. They should be able to replace Lobb’s output between Jackson and Amiss/Treacy, but without Lobb their tall forward stocks are fairly shallow even with Jackson (who is sneakily average as a forward). Taberner is perma-injured and on the way down. Amiss & Treacy may not be up to more than bit parts still. Corbett slots into the Logue role.

Can see how he randomly has more worth to them than his market value, even with Jackson rendering him redundant as a ruckman.

 

[Al dente]

Especially now we’ve lost our first choice forward/ruck in Cordy.

its this damned ruck finger trap weve been in for years now.

Bevo only wants/selects ones who are mobile and versatile, plus English wants to be first ruck and rest back not forward (sook).

Last year, of all the ruckman who changed clubs, Soldo was the only one we would consider, he re-signs and we dont get him.

This year, Lobb is the only one we will consider, and still havent got him.

 

[dergert]

Cough cough our backline cough

 

[bullish23]

His GF efforts have been mentioned, but with Dunkley walking I'd have one of Treloar or Baz in the centre at all times.
He has genuine burst ability, ditto Baz. It changes the way other teams would have to set up as they have to sweep to cover our ability to get a fast clearance.

Totally agree Mofra, hence I can live with the Dunkley situation. Enables us to get a burst player in the centre square which we’ve lacked. Feel we’ve become stale and predictable in our CS set up, and this could be a blessing in disguise.

 

[bullish23]

I don't think the Lobb deal will get done. We think 30 is a fair price, while Freo probably think something closer to 20 is a fair price. I just don't see how we close that chasm from 30 to 20. Sadly, I think it's just a bridge too far, and both clubs should go our separate ways.

I agree scrag. Anything below 30 is way overs for a 30yr old. For me fair value would be ~35

 

[Optimistic Dog]

Q To Liam Pickering. If the lions really wanted to make your man Dunkley a priority why did they trade 15.

A This is ludicrous because the deal would have already been done 15 and F1 a more than fair trade.

You nuff you should be having a go at lions not the dogs.