Strategy Trade and List management Thread Part 6 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[The Slitherin' Snake]

I’m at the point where I don’t care if smith stays or goes. Would rather blokes that are fully invested and think we can hit the draft for mids if we can get some decent return for him.

What makes you think he's not fully invested? Bigfooty discussion and "journos" tweeting?

 

[The Inbetweener]

Oh I hope we hold onto him for sure and expect he will extend at least once with the Eagles.

But there is no doubts playing for WA teams reduces your career because of travel. If Reid wants to play until he is 35 is would be a smart move for him to move to a Melbourne club after he is say 26. Same as Judd did.

We all want to see this kid play as long as possible.

Reid is managed by Connors and they are pretty big on encouraging players to do at least 6 years before considering a move.

 

[Ash1337]

I would prefer it if Buss wasn't involved.

3 doable trades;

Geelong's 1st (8-10) for Smith is about right. Given his contract size we could argue for a few little extras, maybe something like F3 given upcoming father sons.

- In exchange we give a big chunk of Baz's contract to Stengle so he's happy, Geelong keep their 1st as FA compo.

- We pass that pick 8-10 for Barass.

Given Eagles can only offer a 3 year contract to Barass, there are health issues and he doesn't play full seasons (never played 20 games in a season), we either get something back or Eagles pay a chunk of his salary (given their big cap space, this may appeal to them).

Smith out, Stengle, Barass in and a few little extras is a very good outcome.

Barass for bailey smith pick is a bit too much. Better to split the pick up. A trade to freo for 2 of their first round picks and give 1 for Barass.

 

[Contador]

But this has never played out in literally every single out of contract big money trade in recent years, with circumstances that have been very similar to Smith

Dunkley for 21, Brisbane F1 (eventually they made the GF but they also could have missed finals and it be a top 10 pick), other picks for Dogs slight advantage. All together as a package worth a single pick in late top 10. Six years, $750k
Taranto: 12+ 19. 7 years, $750k
Rankine - 5 years, $800k, Pick 5 and a bunch of later pick swaps
Luke Jackson - 7 years, 900k, some late picks coming back for pick 13, future 1st, future 2nd
Cerra - 4 years, 600k+ performance triggers, pick 6 in the trade
Dawson - 5 years, 650k, everyone agrees that Sydney got screwed as Dawson was always going back to his home state but Swans still got a outright future first (from a bad team, Melbourne's). Net value still in the early teens on average, given the theoretical possibility it could be a top 5 pick if Melbourne crapped the bed in their premiership defence
Cameron - five yearsk 900k, pick 13, 15 and 20 with 2 picks in the 2nd round coming back
Caldwell - former pick 11 leaving GWS after two years - pick 44 to 29 upgrade plus a future 2nd - so roughly worth a late 1st
Tim Kelly - 6 years, 850k - future first + pick 14 + pick 24

This is all the trades for out-of-contract non-free agents who were getting paid money that would make them a top 100 paid player in the league or so

All of them went for high draft picks.

Bailey Smith going for a late first or a second round pick or whatever would be an outlier, because if it were true that "hey would go for the bare minimum" despite "offer[ing] a high salary" to qutoe you above, it should have manefested in the 7 or 8 big trades I've outlined above. None of them did, which is the point I'm making.

I mean in terms of the specific trades it all becomes fairly subjective. I look at that list and see (mostly) a bunch of trades where the team losing the player got fairly well shafted - or at the very least wouldn't have done the deal outside of a context in which the player already publicly wanted out.

For example, the picks for J.Cameron ended up being 15, 18 and 25 - I'd argue three pretty speculative picks for a guy who is probably a top 3 player in the comp. No club is doing that trade unless a player wants out.

My only (fairly boring) point was that once a club loses leverage they will generally accept a fair bit less than they otherwise would because the alternative is a bad situation for everyone.

For example, in 2020 we refused to trade Dunkley for supposedly a pick 7 and a second rounder because we wanted at least a top 10 pick and another first. Then in 2022, when we lost all leverage, we had to accept what essentially became pick 21 and a future pick 23. A huge downgrade on how we clearly actually valued him two years before - not even close to a fair deal (in my opinion).

If Smith wants out I'm sure we'll get a decent pick for him because he has enormous value and the clubs involved will look to do a somewhat reasonable deal - but we won't be in a position to be demanding more just on the basis that he's going to be on a big contract. Indeed, on that theory, and if the $1.2mil is to be believed, we'd be within our rights to be demanding at least two top 10 picks for such a superstar who would surely be in the top 5 best paid players in the comp on that money. But we won't, we'll settle for pick 8 or whatever it ends up being - because we have no leverage and because the contract doesn't really matter.

 

[Golden_6]

Barrass is a bloody good player but under no circumstances should we be trading any first round picks for a soon to be 29 year old with injury concerns.

Busslinger & a second is the most I’d pay. Remember what Brian Lake

Brian Lake

Age

42

Ht

195cm

Wt

98kg

Pos.

Def

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.7

4star

K

9.4

4star

HB

5.3

4star

M

6.5

5star

T

1.6

4star

MG

163.0

3star

No current season stats available

D

4.6

1star

K

2.6

1star

HB

2.0

2star

M

1.0

1star

T

0.6

3star

went for?

 

[bobs head soup]

Barass for bailey smith pick is a bit too much. Better to split the pick up. A trade to freo for 2 of their first round picks and give 1 for Barass.

I don't disagree. Given where the Eagles list is at, I reckon the best way to balance out the trade is for them to pay a chunk of salary. From their perspective it would make a lot of sense.

If we front end load and get them to pay a good chunk in the first couple of years, a lot of our risk is mitigated.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

I mean in terms of the specific trades it all becomes fairly subjective. I look at that list and see (mostly) a bunch of trades where the team losing the player got fairly well shafted - or at the very least wouldn't have done the deal outside of a context in which the player already publicly wanted out.

For example, the picks for J.Cameron ended up being 15, 18 and 25 - I'd argue three pretty speculative picks for a guy who is probably a top 3 player in the comp. No club is doing that trade unless a player wants out.

My only (fairly boring) point was that once a club loses leverage they will generally accept a fair bit less than they otherwise would because the alternative is a bad situation for everyone.

For example, in 2020 we refused to trade Dunkley for supposedly a pick 7 and a second rounder because we wanted at least a top 10 pick and another first. Then in 2022, when we lost all leverage, we had to accept what essentially became pick 21 and a future pick 23. A huge downgrade on how we clearly actually valued him two years before - not even close to a fair deal (in my opinion).

If Smith wants out I'm sure we'll get a decent pick for him because he has enormous value and the clubs involved will look to do a somewhat reasonable deal - but we won't be in a position to be demanding more just on the basis that he's going to be on a big contract. Indeed, on that theory, and if the $1.2mil is to be believed, we'd be within our rights to be demanding at least two top 10 picks for such a superstar who would surely be in the top 5 best paid players in the comp on that money. But we won't, we'll settle for pick 8 or whatever it ends up being - because we have no leverage and because the contract doesn't really matter.

I think you're misunderstanding my point.

I'm not saying that a given pick 8 in the draft or whatever is expected to have a equivalent future career to those players traded. Yes, there's always uncertainty in picks.

I'm just making the point that those players did go for an approximate pick 8 or whatever, so we should expect the same for Smith, even if the expectation of Smith's remainder of his career is greater than the average of a pick 8 or whatever.

There's people saying that we won't even get pick 8 (or similar value) for Smith, which I disagree with. You agree that we'll get a single top 10 pick at least, which others are saying we won't even reach.

 

[Unorth]

We can point to Busslinger being a first round pick, West Coast would ask why he’s played 0 afl games given the state of our backline.

If we’re serious about winning a flag in the next couple of years I would rather have Barass than Busslinger on the list by some margin in 2025 and 2026.

Yes we would be swapping maybe many years of Busslinger (who hasn’t proven anything at afl level) for probably 2 years of a proven very good player in an area of need in Barass.

Regardless- if Buss has made his mind up about leaving, which I suspect he has, us doing due diligence on Barass makes a lot of sense. This may not be what we would actively push for if we had a choice, but it may be our preferred outcome if an out of contract Busslinger requests a trade. All pending medicals of course.

I would hope our focus is on winning a flag while Bont is in his prime. Barass (if available) gets us a hell of a lot closer than a young defender that has yet to debut. Or purely for draft picks if we’re forced to trade Buss. We will get that via the Baz trade.

 

[maddog37]

Pat Vezpremi as well

 

[Mofra]

Barass certainly fits into our history of recruiting key defenders that other teams have drafted. Jones, Keath, O'Brien, Gardner (via VFL/MSD), Hamling. We haven't had much strike rate drafting our own, with Collins being a rare swing and miss with our generally good drafting over the last decade.

How dare you skip over Premiership full back Fletcher Roberts!

 

[Libbaaaa]

Westy has extended for 2 years.

 

[VitalDread]

Dogs hoping to lock West and Buku in 3/2 year deals

Dogs announce two year for West

 

[Bulldogs85]

West continues Bulldogs legacy

The Bulldogs forward has extended his time in the red, white and blue with a two-year deal.

www.westernbulldogs.com.au

Bulldogs’ forward Rhylee West

14

Rhylee West

Age

24

Ht

183cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Fwd

Career

Season

Last 5

D

12.3

3star

K

5.7

2star

HB

6.7

4star

M

2.5

3star

T

1.5

3star

G

0.5

3star

D

12.0

3star

K

6.0

2star

HB

6.0

3star

M

2.7

3star

T

2.0

3star

G

0.3

3star

D

13.0

4star

K

5.6

3star

HB

7.4

5star

M

2.2

3star

T

1.4

4star

G

0.6

3star

has extended his time in the red, white and blue, putting pen to paper on a two-year deal at Mission Whitten Oval.

The former father-son selection will remain at the Kennel until at least the end of the 2026 season, rewarded for a consistent campaign that has culminated in 17 goals across 13 games.

Celebrating his 50th game in Round 14, West put together his best performance in 2024, finishing with four goals and 13 touches in the 67-point win. West was drafted via Pick 26 in the 2018 National Draft and has played 50 games in seven seasons.
“It’s exciting – I’m happy to be here at this footy club,” West said.

“Since I got here six years ago, the group has been very tight. I’ve grown with this group, and also seen them grow too.

“Reflecting on my journey so far, it’s obviously been a bit of a longer one – getting to 50 games – but I’m definitely grateful for how it has turned out.

“Without those challenges, I wouldn’t be where I am now.”

Western Bulldogs’ General Manager of List and Recruiting, Sam Power

Sam Power

Age

41

Ht

190cm

Wt

82kg

Pos.

Mid

Career

Season

Last 5

D

14.7

4star

K

7.8

3star

HB

6.9

4star

M

4.2

4star

T

2.0

4star

No current season stats available

D

7.8

2star

K

3.8

2star

HB

4.0

3star

M

1.8

2star

T

1.6

4star

was pleased to have West locked away for the next two seasons.

“Rhylee continues to show plenty of promise as a small forward and we’re pleased to keep him at the Club into the future,” Power said.

“His ability to find the goals, create pressure and bring others into the game, while playing a selfless role at times, have been important traits this season.

“Having played only 50 games so far in his career, Rhylee will continue to develop as he gains more experience at AFL level.”

West joins Tom Liberatore, Jamarra Ugle–Hagan, Harvey Gallagher and Lachy Bramble in re-signing for the Bulldogs this season.

 

[weltschmerz]

West continues Bulldogs legacy

The Bulldogs forward has extended his time in the red, white and blue with a two-year deal.

www.westernbulldogs.com.au

Bulldogs’ forward Rhylee West has extended his time in the red, white and blue, putting pen to paper on a two-year deal at Mission Whitten Oval.

The former father-son selection will remain at the Kennel until at least the end of the 2026 season, rewarded for a consistent campaign that has culminated in 17 goals across 13 games.

Celebrating his 50th game in Round 14, West put together his best performance in 2024, finishing with four goals and 13 touches in the 67-point win. West was drafted via Pick 26 in the 2018 National Draft and has played 50 games in seven seasons.
“It’s exciting – I’m happy to be here at this footy club,” West said.

“Since I got here six years ago, the group has been very tight. I’ve grown with this group, and also seen them grow too.

“Reflecting on my journey so far, it’s obviously been a bit of a longer one – getting to 50 games – but I’m definitely grateful for how it has turned out.

“Without those challenges, I wouldn’t be where I am now.”

Western Bulldogs’ General Manager of List and Recruiting, Sam Power was pleased to have West locked away for the next two seasons.

“Rhylee continues to show plenty of promise as a small forward and we’re pleased to keep him at the Club into the future,” Power said.

“His ability to find the goals, create pressure and bring others into the game, while playing a selfless role at times, have been important traits this season.

“Having played only 50 games so far in his career, Rhylee will continue to develop as he gains more experience at AFL level.”

West joins Tom Liberatore, Jamarra Ugle–Hagan, Harvey Gallagher and Lachy Bramble in re-signing for the Bulldogs this season.

You love to see it. Takes him to free agency where he should be able to sign a good deal as a best 22 player.

 

[dogwatch]

We can point to Busslinger being a first round pick, West Coast would ask why he’s played 0 afl games given the state of our backline.

If we’re serious about winning a flag in the next couple of years I would rather have Barass than Busslinger on the list by some margin in 2025 and 2026.

Yes we would be swapping maybe many years of Busslinger (who hasn’t proven anything at afl level) for probably 2 years of a proven very good player in an area of need in Barass.

Regardless- if Buss has made his mind up about leaving, which I suspect he has, us doing due diligence on Barass makes a lot of sense. This may not be what we would actively push for if we had a choice, but it may be our preferred outcome if an out of contract Busslinger requests a trade. All pending medicals of course.

I would hope our focus is on winning a flag while Bont is in his prime. Barass (if available) gets us a hell of a lot closer than a young defender that has yet to debut. Or purely for draft picks if we’re forced to trade Buss. We will get that via the Baz trade.

I get the argument that if we think we're in a premiership window we have to load up with ready made players (are we still allowed to use the term "premiership window"?) And I'm not against such trades if the terms are right.

However the sort of trades I like to see are where WE get a very good < 25yo player, or a player with heaps of potential who is still in his early 20s, in exchange for offloading a good player who, though still playing well and has good trade value, is nearing the end of his career. Those trades where you get a good long term prospect are the ones that set you up for a decade.

But we're on the other side of the table on this deal. This one we are talking about (getting Barrass) is a roll-the-dice moment. Too often clubs overestimate their closeness to a premiership and sell out their future having got very little out of their 29-30yo recruit. I know Brian Lake was a great exception to this for Hawthorn, but didn't we think we were almost there, and recruiting Lobb was going to be one of the few final pieces needed? Next year we didn't even make finals.

Of course history will be the judge of the trade. If Barrass does carry us to a flag nobody will be complaining, not even me. It's just that it doesn't happen like that too often. For every Brian Lake there would be lots of trades that didn't work out with the hoped-for fairy tale ending.

I also worry that if we're not careful we could join the clubs like North, Gold Coast and GWS who have become feeder clubs. Realistic concerns have been expressed about Bailey Smith, Busslinger and Jamarra UH, all first rounders (#1, #6, #13) and all still in their early twenties. As the Tassy Devils gets closer to fielding a team there will inevitably be tongues wagging about Riley Sanders too (#6). How many high first rounders can we afford to lose, and potentially for less than they are worth because some smooth talking snake-oil salesman recruiter has got in their ear and undermined us? Let's not go back to the pattern of losing many genuine elite players who were at or approaching their peak as we did in the 70s and 80s.

I am not saying we should never trade out a good young player but I'd nearly always want a good young player back, not one with only a couple of years left at his peak.

 

[Dogs_r_barking]

Busslinger cost us a first round pick. Barrass is a very good player, but at his age and with his health concerns, and the fact he misses 4-8 games every year with injury, the idea of effectively trading two first round picks for him (Buss, another first) is unpalatable to me.

I’m open to getting Barass but first round pick for an injury riddled older player,I don’t think so, maybe our second, and Buss with a third coming back.

 

[Unorth]

I get the argument that if we think we're in a premiership window we have to load up with ready made players (are we still allowed to use the term "premiership window"?) And I'm not against such trades if the terms are right.

However the sort of trades I like to see are where WE get a very good < 25yo player, or a player with heaps of potential who is still in his early 20s, in exchange for offloading a good player who, though still playing well and has good trade value, is nearing the end of his career. Those trades where you get a good long term prospect are the ones that set you up for a decade.

But we're on the other side of the table on this deal. This one we are talking about (getting Barrass) is a roll-the-dice moment. Too often clubs overestimate their closeness to a premiership and sell out their future having got very little out of their 29-30yo recruit. I know Brian Lake was a great exception to this for Hawthorn, but didn't we think we were almost there, and recruiting Lobb was going to be one of the few final pieces needed? Next year we didn't even make finals.

Of course history will be the judge of the trade. If Barrass does carry us to a flag nobody will be complaining, not even me. It's just that it doesn't happen like that too often. For every Brian Lake there would be lots of trades that didn't work out with the hoped-for fairy tale ending.

I also worry that if we're not careful we could join the clubs like North, Gold Coast and GWS who have become feeder clubs. Realistic concerns have been expressed about Bailey Smith, Busslinger and Jamarra UH, all first rounders (#1, #6, #13) and all still in their early twenties. As the Tassy Devils gets closer to fielding a team there will inevitably be tongues wagging about Riley Sanders too (#6). How many high first rounders can we afford to lose, and potentially for less than they are worth because some smooth talking snake-oil salesman recruiter has got in their ear and undermined us? Let's not go back to the pattern of losing many genuine elite players who were at or approaching their peak as we did in the 70s and 80s.

I am not saying we should never trade out a good young player but I'd nearly always want a good young player back, not one with only a couple of years left at his peak.

I more or less agree but if retaining Busslinger is not an option (and the AFL weighs heavily to out of contract player requests come trade time), this is what I’d like us to do. If we deem it necessary for west coast to contribute more (pay salary, steak knives) we can ask.

We could select Busslinger tomorrow night and play him every game the rest of the season and possibly re-sign him. I know nothing more than your average nuff.

I suspect the controversial non-selection last round may have something to do with him having his mind made up and us not wanting to invest in a lost cause (where Lobb has been playing out of sheer necessity). We have a few weeks to find out the answer to this really.

If not, and there’s a chance he stays if we find a place for him, wouldn’t upset me. But if he’s gone then I would say it’s time to win…I agree that premiership window is cliche, how about the Bont window? That’s the way I see this shaking out anyway.

 

[LittleG]

I would rather keep Busslinger than trade for Barrass.

Really hoping we see him play this week and then many can realise who useful he is going to be in future. His kicking is excellent and he usually makes the right choice…. There are very few KPD who you can say that about.

 

[Bulldog Brent]

We need to cool our jets - Barrass just reaffirmed his commitment to WCE and is not moving

 

[maddog37]

Westy has a heap more scope in him yet too I feel. Once he truly believes he is the man he will go to another level.

 

[dogwatch]

We need to cool our jets - Barrass just reaffirmed his commitment to WCE and is not moving

Fair enough...

... or is that one of those "the coach has the full support of the board" type statements?

 

[Charlie Bucket]

We need to cool our jets - Barrass just reaffirmed his commitment to WCE and is not moving

Is that as of today?

 

[dogwatch]

With West extending his contract today I think that leaves us with the following players whose contracts expire this year.

Have I missed any recent extensions?

Busslinger	Jedd
Smith	Bailey
Clarke	Charlie
Duryea	Taylor
Liberatore	Tom
Khamis	Buku
Bedendo	Dominic
McNeil	Lachie
Garcia	Riley
Johannisen	Jason
Rypstra	Kelsey
Keath	Alex
English	Tim

 

[Bald]

Is that as of today?

 

[out of finals]

With West extending his contract today I think that leaves us with the following players whose contracts expire this year.

Have I missed any recent extensions?

Busslinger	Jedd
Smith	Bailey
Clarke	Charlie
Duryea	Taylor
Liberatore	Tom
Khamis	Buku
Bedendo	Dominic
McNeil	Lachie
Garcia	Riley
Johannisen	Jason
Rypstra	Kelsey
Keath	Alex
English	Tim

Libba re-signed for another year back in April, but other than that perfect