Strategy Trade and List Management Thread Part 7 (opposition supporters - READ posting rules before posting)

[Optimistic Dog]

Maybe this should be in a new thread but I put I will put it forward here as this thread is about 2025.

Is it a possibility we could win the flag. I think it is but highly unlikely. We would need to finish top 4 something we not done under Bevo. What would need to happen for this to occur would be

1. Bont to return to his 2023 form
2. A good run with injuries
3. To win nearly all our close games
4. Connection between midfield and forward to improve significantly
5. Our three tall forwards gel together and all have very good seasons
6. Develop a plan B when plan A is not working
7. Our backline defends well
8. Sanders, Buss, Arty, Freijah have good seasons.
9. ADZ and Red continue 2024 form
10. One or more of our recruits become regulars
11. Bevo f0rgets about being a mad scientist
12. And the obvious we win 3 finals.

 

[bobs head soup]

Maybe this should be in a new thread but I put I will put it forward here as this thread is about 2025.

Is it a possibility we could win the flag. I think it is but highly unlikely. We would need to finish top 4 something we not done under Bevo. What would need to happen for this to occur would be

1. Bont to return to his 2023 form
2. A good run with injuries
3. To win nearly all our close games
4. Connection between midfield and forward to improve significantly
5. Our three tall forwards gel together and all have very good seasons
6. Develop a plan B when plan A is not working
7. Our backline defends well
8. Sanders, Buss, Arty, Freijah have good seasons.
9. ADZ and Red continue 2024 form
10. One or more of our recruits become regulars
11. Bevo f0rgets about being a mad scientist
12. And the obvious we win 3 finals.

Bont won the b&f by a mile, was voted the year's MVP by his peers and was all-australian captain in 2024.

I don't think he needs to return to anything. If he reproduces 2024 form, I'd take that.

 

[Graeme Cook]

Maybe this should be in a new thread but I put I will put it forward here as this thread is about 2025.

Is it a possibility we could win the flag. I think it is but highly unlikely. We would need to finish top 4 something we not done under Bevo. What would need to happen for this to occur would be

1. Bont to return to his 2023 form
2. A good run with injuries
3. To win nearly all our close games
4. Connection between midfield and forward to improve significantly
5. Our three tall forwards gel together and all have very good seasons
6. Develop a plan B when plan A is not working
7. Our backline defends well
8. Sanders, Buss, Arty, Freijah have good seasons.
9. ADZ and Red continue 2024 form
10. One or more of our recruits become regulars
11. Bevo f0rgets about being a mad scientist
12. And the obvious we win 3 finals.

How about winning hit outs how about kicking straight how about kicking goals when we've had 10 inside 50s in a row.

 

[TiAn_]

Maybe this should be in a new thread but I put I will put it forward here as this thread is about 2025.

Is it a possibility we could win the flag. I think it is but highly unlikely. We would need to finish top 4 something we not done under Bevo. What would need to happen for this to occur would be

1. Bont to return to his 2023 form
2. A good run with injuries
3. To win nearly all our close games
4. Connection between midfield and forward to improve significantly
5. Our three tall forwards gel together and all have very good seasons
6. Develop a plan B when plan A is not working
7. Our backline defends well
8. Sanders, Buss, Arty, Freijah have good seasons.
9. ADZ and Red continue 2024 form
10. One or more of our recruits become regulars
11. Bevo f0rgets about being a mad scientist
12. And the obvious we win 3 finals.

Just put your money on finishing 5-8 and losing an Elimination Final and sleep easy.

 

[House_of_Dahl]

To win nearly all our close games

To be fair winning just one more game would have has us top 4 this year

 

[Charlie Bucket]

1. Connection between midfield and forward to improve significantly

We were the 2nd best scoring team of last year. And with better conversion would have comfortably been 1st.

Is the whole forward line connection thing a bit overstated due to issues in prior years?

I think our forward half footy was pretty good in 2024. It was our finishing that let us down.

 

[BallaratBulldog]

We were the 2nd best scoring team of last year. And with better conversion would have comfortably been 1st.

Is the whole forward line connection thing a bit overstated due to issues in prior years?

I think our forward half footy was pretty good in 2024. It was our finishing that let us down.

Is that because our mids win so much its just weight of numbers?

I feel like our entries stick out like a sore thumb. Particularly the bombs deep to an outnumber. Often our forwards don’t work for each other enough for space and separation.

Dogs are decent at locking it the forward half for long periods but if that conversion doesn’t happen it often ends up with the defence eventually breaking down or out the back. I wish they could work around the 50 more and hit a lead more than the long kick to a pocket or the spare in the square.

I do think you are right that its better than last few years but not at the level for finals.

 

[Anja_Nees]

We were the 2nd best scoring team of last year. And with better conversion would have comfortably been 1st.

Is the whole forward line connection thing a bit overstated due to issues in prior years?

I think our forward half footy was pretty good in 2024. It was our finishing that let us down.

Even our finishing improved a bit as the year went on.

We got smacked out of the middle in the EF and our problems flowed from there. I think that’s why we targeted some big bodied mids.

If we continue our form line generally from about round 9 we will have a good year.

 

[stefoid]

This site is insane - the stats keeps scrolling to the right -> there are 100 of them or something

AFL Team Statistics

AFL team statistics.

www.wheeloratings.com

If we look at the last 10 games which is roughly when we got our act together....

For how functional our forward line is, something like uncontested marks inside 50 would be perfect, but somehow that is the only stats they dont have. They do have marks on lead, however, which is the next best thing. They also have 'marks inside 50 per inside 50'

so - last 10 games, we are comfortably top of the table for inside 50s, but only mid table for marks of any kind inside 50. Which according to their 'marks inside 50 per inside 50' stat puts us 3rd worst.

And if you look at actual marks on the lead, we are 2nd worst averaging only 5.2 per game even during our excellent last 10 games of the season. Meanwhile brisbane averages 8. (2nd best)

TLDR? We have heaps of room for improvement in this area - thats good news.

 

[geoffjennings79]

All our problems stem from that 7 year contract for Tom Boyd.
If we never offered that contract, and stayed in our lane like the good little club we are perceived as, we'd be kicking straighter now. No flag, but better accuracy.

Oh yeah, and Santa is real...

Merry Christmas (or substitute your preferred seasonal greeting) everyone.

Personally - family-wise, health wise, professionally and own mental health, my year has been a complete disaster.
(Hence some of my irascibility, esp on the SRP and Crime boards, but here too.)
So I'm hoping for even a slightly better year in 2025. At this stage, I'm not too focussed on footy for next year, but an improved start to the season from recent attempts would aid in salving some of my challenges.

I'm taking a BF break until at least mid-Jan (already ditched the only other SM app I was active on), so hope you all enjoy whatever you're planning/doing over that time.

 

[stefoid]

wow, some interesting stuff in those stats

We were terrible at scoring from the defensive half - 3rd worst, (28 pts) scoring 12pts less than the best teams like the hawks

Whereas for scoring from the forward half , we were 2nd best at (47pts) behind the hawks at 55pts!! Our last 5 games were our best where we led the table for scoring from the forward half.

The hawks are insane at causing turnovers all across the ground and turning that into score. We got pretty good causing the turnovers, but again - plenty of room for improvement for turning defensive turnovers into score.

Im reading these stats like this -> which matches the eye test

We got pretty good at causing turnovers all over the ground, and really good at transitioning the ball, even from defence, into the forward half.

But that last kick inside 50 is where we have to improve. the pattern is rebound in the defensive half, move the ball well through the midfield, turn it over inside 50, then win it back in the forward half, then score from that.

Can we retain the speed at which we get the ball into our forward half, but connect better with thge forwards rather than bomb it at them? thats the thing....

 

[Charlie Bucket]

Is that because our mids win so much its just weight of numbers?

I feel like our entries stick out like a sore thumb. Particularly the bombs deep to an outnumber. Often our forwards don’t work for each other enough for space and separation.

Dogs are decent at locking it the forward half for long periods but if that conversion doesn’t happen it often ends up with the defence eventually breaking down or out the back. I wish they could work around the 50 more and hit a lead more than the long kick to a pocket or the spare in the square.

I do think you are right that its better than last few years but not at the level for finals.

Goals are goals. Does it matter how they’re kicked?

Our goal kicker spread was almost identical to the Lions last year, and they won the flag. Our forward half football just wasn’t as big an issue as some make it out to be.

Consistency was our biggest issue. I like the Sunday Roast analogy when describing our football. You make 3 perfect Sunday roasts in a row, and then on the 4th Sunday, when the timer goes off on the oven, you ignore it and fluff around for 15min before taking it out. Resulting in an overcooked inedible roast. Is the answer changing the timer on the oven when cooking the roast, or just doing what you’re supposed to and take it out when the timer goes off?

We cooked a lot of good roasts last year, but some weeks we f***ed it horribly. Is it the cooking instructions we’ve been given? Or the effort we’ve put in whilst cooking it? For me it’s the latter.

Improve the effort in the kitchen and the roast will take care of itself.

 

[Charlie Bucket]

Building a more ruthless and harder edge. Biggest priority for our club this pre season.

 

[stefoid]

Building a more ruthless and harder edge. Biggest priority for our club this pre season.

yeah but, improving the system puts a floor under us. I think the reason why we dont make top 4 is because we rely too much on the effort and when that isnt there, we fall away too much.

No team plays their best effort every week, but the good teams 'read: best drilled and coached contenders' can put in poor efforts and still get a win. Even when they arent 100% their system carries them against MOTR teams. they are the ones that finish top 4.

When we drop games we really drop them. The plan of " get the ball inside 50 -> magic happens -> goal! " can be improved, no doubt

 

[BallaratBulldog]

Goals are goals. Does it matter how they’re kicked?

Improve the effort in the kitchen and the roast will take care of itself.

I think it does matter how they are kicked.

-If goals come easier there is less effort drained.
-There is more consistency by virtue of the system being better.
-Mental of players don’t drop by taking chances.
-Dogs are more likely to keep momentum.

Im not saying the Dogs need to play perfect and can’t ever scrap of course. But they need to find a better way there, suddenly the accuracy and consistency will approve from it.

 

[Charlie Bucket]

yeah but, improving the system puts a floor under us. I think the reason why we dont make top 4 is because we rely too much on the effort and when that isnt there, we fall away too much.

No team plays their best effort every week, but the good teams 'read: best drilled and coached contenders' can put in poor efforts and still get a win. Even when they arent 100% their system carries them against MOTR teams. they are the ones that finish top 4.

When we drop games we really drop them. The plan of " get the ball inside 50 -> magic happens -> goal! " can be improved, no doubt

Systems are improved regardless. That goes for every team.

I think our system is good. All our lines were some of the better ones last season. Amongst the leaders statistically across the league.

Our weakness was our output wasn’t enough in too many games. Some we just didn’t turn up, others we dropped off across quarters or halves. That’s not a system issue, it’s performance based.

“best drilled and coached contenders' can put in poor efforts and still get a win”

This may be the case with a 5-10% drop off, but ours were far worse than that. At time we looked like the worst WC or North team over the last 5 years. Dees Rd 1 and Port mid season the perfect examples. No system makes up for those poor performance levels.

If we find a way to toughen up mentally and have greater output across more quarters and games, we’ll be there about this season.

I’d like to have no doubts about that improvement after 3 games next season. Anything less, it’s going to be the same old pea heart dogs and another wasted year.

 

[stefoid]

Systems are improved regardless. That goes for every team.

I wish this were true, but were have been playing the same old shit for years. LAst year was the first year of significant change that only just started to pay dividends in the later part of the season.

 

[stefoid]

In an effort to move the Rhylee Sanders tassie trade talk to a relevant thread: quote from newspaper

“What I can tell you tonight is it’s going to be very different to Gold Coast and Greater Western Sydney,” Landsberger began on Fox Footy’s Midweek Tackle.

“This is a clear mandate from the AFL: ‘We cannot have a team come in and win wooden spoon after wooden spoon and be uncompetitive and basically unwatchable.’

“My understanding is the big difference is that they’re going to get very similar draft concessions — it might be picks 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 9, 10 and 11 — but they’re going to have to trade away multiple picks to land established stars.

“It’s a win-win for the competition.”

It’d also help rebuilding clubs when Tasmania joins the AFL in 2028 as they could trade ageing stars for early picks to ensure they’re not denied access to top-end talent in compromised drafts.

“The knock on effect is if you are at ground zero and in rebuild mode – so if you’re West Coast or North Melbourne now and Tassie was coming in, if it was like it was 10 years ago, you’re basically stuffed. The handbrake goes on your rebuild,” Landsberger explained.

“Under this model, you’re not locked out of the top 10 of the draft. You can trade some players who aren’t going to be there when you’re contending and really dominate that pointy end (of the draft).

 

[DueWest]

Wouldn’t be surprised if Tassie have access to [emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji6] draft picks to trade for players and secure them a year in advance, ie they play for there current club in [emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]] then move in [emoji[emoji6][emoji6]][emoji[emoji6]] when tassie come in. Similar to how rugby player’s contract a year out.

 

[BallaratBulldog]

We would get back two first rounders minimum by that time IF it was to happen.

 

[cherrypie]

“My understanding is the big difference is that they’re going to get very similar draft concessions — it might be picks 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 9, 10 and 11 — but they’re going to have to trade away multiple picks to land established stars. It’s a win-win for the competition.”

It’d also help rebuilding clubs when Tasmania joins the AFL in 2028 as they could trade ageing stars for early picks to ensure they’re not denied access to top-end talent in compromised drafts.

“The knock on effect is if you are at ground zero and in rebuild mode – so if you’re West Coast or North Melbourne now and Tassie was coming in, if it was like it was 10 years ago, you’re basically stuffed. The handbrake goes on your rebuild. Under this model, you’re not locked out of the top 10 of the draft. You can trade some players who aren’t going to be there when you’re contending and really dominate that pointy end (of the draft)."

I don’t see how this would benefit North for example at all. Which experienced players would they be able to trade for a Top 10 pick? Larkey, LDU, Xerri and that’s about it - losing any of those would be a net loss regardless of getting a high pick back.

Guarantee it’ll just be some top teams trading out older players on big contracts. The sides on the bottom won’t benefit at all.

We were very fortunate our rebuild post-Eade was a couple years after the heavy GWS/Gold Coast drafts and we capitalised on the early picks we had.

 

[threenewpadlocks]

I don’t see how this would benefit North for example at all. Which experienced players would they be able to trade for a Top 10 pick? Larkey, LDU, Xerri and that’s about it - losing any of those would be a net loss regardless of getting a high pick back.

Guarantee it’ll just be some top teams trading out older players on big contracts. The sides on the bottom won’t benefit at all.

We were very fortunate our rebuild post-Eade was a couple years after the heavy GWS/Gold Coast drafts and we capitalised on the early picks we had.

Yeah, I never get the AFL making these demands and imparting obligations on the teams, when there's no incentives, especially when clubs can act like a cartel (have the AFL every looked at game theory at all).

If Tasmania are forced to trade picks or they get extinguished, every AFL club can just refuse to trade the players until Tasmania are effectively forced to trade for a bad player or to take on a bad contract.

It was essentially the same in the mini-draft, where GWS were meant to trade the four picks that became Hogan, Crouch, O'Meara and Martin for "established players" - in the end they just traded them for another 6 or so top 10 picks, because no club wanted to trade actual established players for the uncertainty of a 17 year old.