Mega Thread Trade/Draft/Delist SuperMegaUltrathread - 2016/17 offseason edition

[Miguel Sanchez]

17th for avg disposals per game. 14th for kicks, 17th for handballs. 15th in differential in disposals at -23.7 per game.


Bang on. I'd say the ball was in the other team's hands too often this year. The contested possessions count is almost dead even, however we gave up 22.1 uncontested possessions and 22.5 effective disposals per game, which basically means we gave out 22 connected passed per game. We're the only top 8 side ranked lower than 9th on both counts (North is 9th).

I don't think overall possession counts and uncontested possession counts are that important. Teams can and do rack up big numbers by faffing about with the ball across half back without actually achieving anything.

 

[Matera LeNui]

The Doggies and GWS have so many contributors. Tough and skilled in close, handball it out of the congestion and run with it. We just don't have the talent or balance these teams do.

 

[Agent93]

I don't think overall possession counts and uncontested possession counts are that important. Teams can and do rack up big numbers by faffing about with the ball across half back without actually achieving anything.

In isolation, probably not. But when every other side in the top 10 is significantly better at it than us, there's an indication the way we played this season was vastly different to other good clubs in the competition. Basically we were putting up possession numbers of a bottom 4 side, and winning games.

It's evidence that we're either being coached poorly or don't have the cattle to compete. The fact we've won 16 games for 2 seasons running suggests the latter and the former is doing the best with what he's got (a very efficient forward line).

 

[Happy Mastenator]

I don't think overall possession counts and uncontested possession counts are that important. Teams can and do rack up big numbers by faffing about with the ball across half back without actually achieving anything.

Except whenever you have the ball and your opponent doesn't, your opponent is having to work extra hard, and getting tired as a result.

 

[Agent93]

And he's not even the highest scorer in Sydney's midfield. Parker has 22 goals to JPK's 17. Add in 13 each to Hannebery and Mitchell and that's 65 goals from 4 mids. (And I'm not including Heeney as a mid).

Compare that to our best four, Yeo Hutch Shuey and Gaff, who kicked 48 between them (albeit from two less games). And Yeo probably played more forward than mid, similar to Heeney.

You could compare actual forwards where our best 4 are up by 38. Team wide, 0.2 goals per game difference.

The difference between who is doing Sydney and West Coast's goal scoring is likely due to the shape of their home grounds. In a straight line a player is 9m closer to goal from the centre circle at the SCG than at Subi. At the SCG a 30m pass puts many players in range at 45m out, 54m at Subi and many would struggle.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

In isolation, probably not. But when every other side in the top 10 is significantly better at it than us, there's an indication the way we played this season was vastly different to other good clubs in the competition. Basically we were putting up possession numbers of a bottom 4 side, and winning games.

It's evidence that we're either being coached poorly or don't have the cattle to compete. The fact we've won 16 games for 2 seasons running suggests the latter and the former is doing the best with what he's got (a very efficient forward line).

Hawthorn's contested possession count indicates that they've played a very different way to other sides in the top 8 as well. And they were an Isaac Smith shank away from a home prelim.

Our inside 50 numbers were the same or similar to the other finalists - 52 a game, the others ranged from 52 to 57. To me that indicates that despite not having the same possession counts we're getting the ball forward just as much as the other top sides.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

Except whenever you have the ball and your opponent doesn't, your opponent is having to work extra hard, and getting tired as a result.

Not sure that's true - the web means that our players are guarding space which I assume would take less energy than chasing blokes around.

 

[Galileo9]

Our problem isn't goal kicking, it's much easier to identify. Players who averaged over 18 touches per game.

Western Bulldogs - 13
GWS - 12
Geelong - 11
Adelaide - 11
Sydney - 9
Hawthorn - 8
West Coast - 4

We don't have enough players that can find the ball and hold onto the ball.

It's basically what Simpson has been saying. Too much left to top few.

But then Priddis gets shat on here that he is problem when clearly we don't have enough ball winners. Top liners at other clubs can get a breather before going again knowing it's not all up to them.

We don't have that. So getting hogan or Lobb isn't going to fix that. We need to draft midfielders or trade for them and that's it.

 

[avishka5]

Our problem isn't goal kicking, it's much easier to identify. Players who averaged over 18 touches per game.

Western Bulldogs - 13
GWS - 12
Geelong - 11
Adelaide - 11
Sydney - 9
Hawthorn - 8
West Coast - 4

We don't have enough players that can find the ball and hold onto the ball.

even 20 touches or more is concerning. Dogs have 14 who average 20 or more disposals. A few have played a couple of games but that just shows how good they have been. Swans have 7 but the have 4 guys averaging 28 or more disposals a game (both jpk and hanners average more than 31 disposals a game. GWS have 10 players averaging 20 or more while cats have 10 and hawks have 7. No wonder we struggle against better opposition. 4 guys doing racking up most of the possession ins't enough (this also goe to CP's and clearances). Next season we need sheed, redden and yeo averaging more than 20 possesions a game while the likes of hutchings, jetta and duggan need to get between 20-18 disposals a game.

 

[ziad]

Hawthorn's contested possession count indicates that they've played a very different way to other sides in the top 8 as well. And they were an Isaac Smith shank away from a home prelim.

Our inside 50 numbers were the same or similar to the other finalists - 52 a game, the others ranged from 52 to 57. To me that indicates that despite not having the same possession counts we're getting the ball forward just as much as the other top sides.

Could it be concluded that with a better midfield delivering the ball more often (and perhaps better) we would be well ahead?

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

Could it be concluded that with a better midfield delivering the ball more often (and perhaps better) we would be well ahead?

I think that goes without saying.

My main point is I don't think you can take much from uncontested possession numbers in isolation

 

[domo]

Could it be concluded that with a better midfield delivering the ball more often (and perhaps better) we would be well ahead?

Yeop! with the emphasis on "better" and as has been discussed mids who also pose a real goal kicking threat too. I wish there more sense of urgency though with this! We've already seen Nic Nat go down with no guarantees of him ever getting back to his best.. we've got an excellent bunch of forwards and KP backs. Best we've ever put together in our history. It won't be there forever.
We could do well to take a leaf out of Norf's book.. Where a guy like Harvey is deemed "not good enough". But what do we do - sign Hutchings for 2 more years, and send Priddis in for back repairs. Still on the face of it, rate Masten and Gaff enough to be auto-select. So next season it'll be more of the same Priddis, Gaff, Hutch and Masten as our key mids.. And they're the ones who need "more help"? Yet we can't play anyone else cause they're locked in.
Watching this final series particularly, would any of those blokes even get a game in any other team??

 

[CM9000]

Yeop! with the emphasis on "better" and as has been discussed mids who also pose a real goal kicking threat too. I wish there more sense of urgency though with this! We've already seen Nic Nat go down with no guarantees of him ever getting back to his best.. we've got an excellent bunch of forwards and KP backs. Best we've ever put together in our history. It won't be there forever.
We could do well to take a leaf out of Norf's book.. Where a guy like Harvey is deemed "not good enough". But what do we do - sign Hutchings for 2 more years, and send Priddis in for back repairs. Still on the face of it, rate Masten and Gaff enough to be auto-select. So next season it'll be more of the same Priddis, Gaff, Hutch and Masten as our key mids.. And they're the ones who need "more help"? Yet we can't play anyone else cause they're locked in.
Watching this final series particularly, would any of those blokes even get a game in any other team??

Priddis and Gaff aren't detrimental to our midfield in the slightest, especially Gaff, who is one of the best wingman in the comp.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

So next season it'll be more of the same Priddis, Gaff, Hutch and Masten as our key mids.. And they're the ones who need "more help"? Yet we can't play anyone else cause they're locked in.

Shuey's not a "key mid"? Or Sheed? Both are in the middle more than Hutchings.

There's three centre square spots and two wings, and players are rotated through all five. So there's plenty of room for others.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

Watching this final series particularly, would any of those blokes even get a game in any other team??

Hutchings is the weakest of the four you mentioned. He held Scooter out of the team last year. Scooter was in Geelong's QF team.

So yes they would.

 

[Always Ballin]

What we need in a nutshell?

S.P.E.E.D.

This has been our weakness since 2011

Just look at the heads in our midfield. Some quality ball winners, but they're all slow as hell. Shuey's the only one that has any sort of linebreaking ability. This is why we recruited Jetta, and he's been good when he gets the ball, which seems to be never.

Not sure what the solution is, but as far as a long term small forward solution... I say we bet on Liam Ryan. Got some serious hops, the right explosive goal sneak we've been looking for to replace the aging LeCraa.

 

[RookiePick]

I think that goes without saying.

My main point is I don't think you can take much from uncontested possession numbers in isolation

I think it's clear that we didn't generate enough though. When we generated chains of uncontested possession we scored. We did that more last year and we scored heavily in many more games.

We should be playing to our strengths and not trying to make Gaff, Masten, Hill etc play an uncomfortable style as the default setting. All these guys have to go when it's their turn and more importantly know when they need to go - that should be a non-negotiable.

Zoning off defensively should make it easier to find uncontested possessions. Our failure to do so means the players aren't working hard enough off the ball or something is amiss with our game plan on transition. I don't think we really generated less turnovers/intercept marks than 2015 on face value but gee we turned the ball back over a heck of a lot more.

 

[kane249]

What we need in a nutshell?

S.H.E.E.D.

efa

 

[Keys]

Yeop! with the emphasis on "better" and as has been discussed mids who also pose a real goal kicking threat too. I wish there more sense of urgency though with this! We've already seen Nic Nat go down with no guarantees of him ever getting back to his best.. we've got an excellent bunch of forwards and KP backs. Best we've ever put together in our history. It won't be there forever.
We could do well to take a leaf out of Norf's book.. Where a guy like Harvey is deemed "not good enough". But what do we do - sign Hutchings for 2 more years, and send Priddis in for back repairs. Still on the face of it, rate Masten and Gaff enough to be auto-select. So next season it'll be more of the same Priddis, Gaff, Hutch and Masten as our key mids.. And they're the ones who need "more help"? Yet we can't play anyone else cause they're locked in.
Watching this final series particularly, would any of those blokes even get a game in any other team??

Harvey wasn't let go by north because he's "not good enough" - Scott is on the record as saying Harvey would still easily be best 22 next year

Harvey was let go because north have come to the realisation that their current group isn't good enough and they need to rebuild so need to get games into their younger players

Now we could give up on this group and move players on but in 2016 we were one game and percentage off top spot so aren't that far away. Improvements need to be made and there's some older players that need to do more to earn their spots but we still have a list than can contend

Signing 25 year old depth midfielders like Hutchings isn't an issue and what north did with Harvey is irrelevant to us

 

[ziad]

power not just speed.
Jetta has speed, Judd and Danger had/have power

 

[dajesmac]

It's just bad sense to delist a guy who is in your best 25 and is adequate depth.

Trade or retain. And given we don't have great midfield depth as it is I'd keep Hutchings for now.

 

[Always Ballin]

I mean, we got burned by the Bulldogs pretty much the same way we did in the Grand Final. Murdered on the rebound by long legged runners and a whole lot of pace. It frustrates me how we load up on the forward press, only to clanger that shit up and it becomes a foot race to an open goal. I mean we kind of have a mobile backline, at least we played with a smaller back 6 last year. Is moving Yeo back to the HB line the right move? I think he's better used as a swing man ala Adam Hunter.. Kind of looks and moves the same too.

 

[Apex Predators]

I don't think overall possession counts and uncontested possession counts are that important. Teams can and do rack up big numbers by faffing about with the ball across half back without actually achieving anything.

I agree with you in part. There is a time and place when soft uncontested possessions are important. Our problem is we lack composure and the ability to slow the ball down. We look our best when moving the ball long and direct, which looks a million dollars when working well. Flat track kicks in.

When it is not working well, the same direct brand of footy is still all we try, and it it ends up making us look bog average. We get smashed around the middle and our long kicks start to get pressured and everyone starts to lament the around the corner kicks to no one.

The inability to change from long direct footy to a more nuanced possession style makes us too one dimensional and I think is at the heart of the flat track bully tag. It's also why teams put lots of goals on us quick, because we can't change things up when our one game plan is not working.

What has made Hawthorn great is that they do both games well. They can chip it around looking for the right angles into 50, or they can turn on the afterburners when the opportunity presents itself.

 

[Eaglespur]

Funny people are saying we need to draft/trade in players with speed. Of course we do... And we have. Yeo is (can be) super quick, shame about his footy brain not being up to speed. Jetta, you'd argue at full piss is one of the fastest in the league again we have been unlucky his mind set hasn't been on point. Cripps is pretty quick. So I'd argue we have tried to address this issue the last few seasons with an unfortunate lack of success.

We need players who can win the inside contest and I have full faith in Sheed next season with a full preseason will make a big big difference.

 

[Bestbird]

Our problem isn't goal kicking, it's much easier to identify. Players who averaged over 18 touches per game.

Western Bulldogs - 13
GWS - 12
Geelong - 11
Adelaide - 11
Sydney - 9
Hawthorn - 8
West Coast - 4

We don't have enough players that can find the ball and hold onto the ball.

Nail on head

A small positive but surely most of Redden, Jetta, Sheed, Yeo and Duggan will be more productive next season.