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Trade period / National Draft 2024
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THE_GUN:"Why don't you use your reg acc"7/9/24
AFL trade and free agency news: Cautionary tales Tigers must heed ahead of list upheaval
Five times over the past two decades clubs have been faced with the choice to blow the list up as part of a rebuild. JOSH BARNES unpacks what lessons the Tigers can take as they face tough choices on five big names.Josh Barnes and The Barnestormer
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How hard can you go when you push the button to blow it up?
It is a question that has haunted list managers for decades as they weigh up how deep to cut a fading list.
Richmond is walking towards that precipice right now.
If the tea leaves are to be believed, Richmond could see all these flag winners go in just a few months.
Jack Graham could leave as a free agent, Liam Baker may follow him west, Dustin Martin might be limping towards the end of his legendary stroll down Punt Road, Daniel Rioli could be tempted by the Gold Coast sun, and Shai Bolton may push to be another Tiger playing in Perth.
If they did clean out their lockers, those five would walk out of Richmond carrying 12 premiership medals.
Could Liam Baker depart the Tigers this off-season despite captaining the club last week? Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images.
West Coast is rumoured to be interested in Jack Graham. Picture: Darrian Traynor/AFL Photos/via Getty Images.
In this modern era, fans are less tied to their premiership servants and always looking at the shiny potential of draft picks.
Graham’s value as a 26-year-old would likely be a second-round pick as compensation.
Martin’s compensation likely wouldn’t reach that height.
In trades, Baker is probably worth a mid-first, Rioli could be two firsts and Bolton’s long and weighty contract weighs even more than that on the scales.
Is 12 premierships worth six picks inside the top 30?
It would be a very nice starting point to the proper rebuild for new recruiting boss Chris Toce, given the only players on Richmond’s list the Tigers drafted themselves before pick No. 15 are Nick Vlastuin and Josh Gibcus.
The unique position Richmond finds itself in here is that it holds four players of genuine value, plus an all-time great in Martin.
Will Dustin Martin play on again next season? If so, in whose colours? Picture: Daniel Pockett/Getty Images.
Teams that have cut deep in the past have often done it by axing veterans or moving on youngsters who haven’t quite cut it yet.
North Melbourne did both, cutting the vets in 2016 and culling the list cloggers by axing 11 players in one day in 2020.
Neither secured a quick bounce but also neither of the moves brought any value back to the club, unlike the bevy of potential draft options the Tigers could secure.
By getting this many swings, the Tigers would put themselves in a similar position to the Hawks of the early 2000s, when they drafted Jarryd Roughead, Lance Franklin and Jordan Lewis together in the first half-hour of the 2004 draft and built a dynasty.
Within three seasons, those Hawks were winning finals and within four they had a flag.
What is also unique about Richmond’s situation is that those players potentially on the way out would mostly be part of that potential flag side in 2030.
Daniel Rioli could still be on Richmond’s list in 2030 if he doesn’t seek a new home. Picture: Josh Chadwick/Getty Images.
Baker would be the oldest of the crew, aged 32 then.
Losing so much prime talent means the Tigers will have surely given up on trying to remain in the finals hunt, a plan outgoing CEO Brendon Gale has stuck to in recent years.
Losing that much proven talent at the peak of their powers has never worked out, with Brisbane’s ‘go home five’ ripping potential from the Lions and sending them to the bottom.
While the Tigers will still have plenty of experienced talent on their list, losing players who have been there before can only hurt whoever is drafted into the club.
Richmond assistant Jack Ziebell had to be one of the few experienced heads at North Melbourne in his final playing years and recognises how important it is to have veterans around to fast-track young players.
“It is critical, they are like on-field coaches. I look at guys like Dion Prestia, Jacob Hopper and Tim Taranto, who have all missed chunks of footy this year,” he said.
“One, we would love them out there because they are guns. But two, their ability to help instruct and teach kids on the field in real life and teach them is second to none.
Fremantle is rumoured Shai Bolton of the Richmond Tigers in action. Picture: Mark Stewart
“I know the young guys absolutely eat it up and the young guys get a thrill out of it as well.”
History isn’t kind to clubs that tear it all down following the mantra of moving on players who aren’t in the next premiership side.
Melbourne and Carlton both went through rebuilds over and over for virtually 15 years before both finally hit an upswing, with the Demons eventually claiming the silverware in 2021.
The only reliable constant you can find in histories of blowing up a playing list in footy is you are destined for a long time losing.
Perhaps Richmond fans are ready for that and having watched them savour in three flags, opposition fans may agree the Tigers deserve a slow rebuild.
Hawthorn has shown you can bounce back quicker than expected.
But if the Tigers do move on most of their five players, it surely consigns the club to a long time in the cellar.
Here’s five examples of blow-it-up moments from clubs that either worked, or didn’t, and how they apply to the Tigers.
Top Performers
Shai Bolton
28
goals
Daniel Rioli
449
disposals
Nick Vlastuin
125
marks
Toby Nankervis
97
tackles
THE CROAD SWINDLE
The gold standard of moving a prime player for draft capital was Hawthorn’s shock call to trade Trent Croad to Fremantle in 2001.The trade netted the No. 1 pick, used on three-time premiership captain Luke Hodge, pick 20 (Daniel Elstone) and the 36th pick, used on another premiership captain Sam Mitchell.
Of course, Croad returned to the Hawks only a couple of seasons later and played in the 2008 premiership.
The Hawks went into this 2001 trade knowing their fans might not like it – some in brown and gold started a ‘Keep Croad’ club – but they wanted to snag a 15-year star and knew Croad was the collateral for that.
Trent Croad in 2009, after winning the 2008 premiership with Hawthorn.
The lesson for the Tigers here is pretty obvious: if you can trade a player in his early prime for the first pick in possibly the best draft of all time, go for it.
It doesn’t look like any of their post-season moves are that cut and dry and while draft watchers rate the year’s crop as deep, it isn’t in the stratosphere of 2001.
And the other key thing is by the time Croad came back, the Hawks still had a deep veteran core of the likes of Shane Crawford, Richie Vandenberg, Nick Holland and Peter Everitt in place to help draftees learn the caper.
GO HOME FIVE
You can never forget that the Lions, basking in stars keen to play in Queensland, once seemingly couldn’t keep anyone at the club.None of these were Brisbane’s decision to trade out but dubbed the ‘go home five’, Sam Docherty, Elliot Yeo, Jared Polec, Billy Longer and Patrick Karnezis all rushed out of the club in 2013.
Elliot Yeo, Patrick Wearden, Billy Longer, and Sam Docherty in 2011 after being drafted by the Brisbane Lions. Picture: Nathan Richter
The Lions basically got back Darcy Gardiner, Dan McStay, Lewis Taylor, Tom Cutler, Nick Robertson, Jackson Paine and Trent West in the subsequent trades and drafting.
Gardiner has been a very serviceable defender and McStay provided value before going to Collingwood, but there was little bang for buck here for the Lions.
With a handful of young core players ripped out, the Lions finished in the bottom three in each of the next five seasons and it took draft after draft to build what is now a perennial contender.
The question is yours Richmond fans: is that half-decade of pain worth it?
POWER’S QUICK DIP
In a blueprint for how to drop and bounce quickly, Port Adelaide finished 2018 in 10th and that off-season traded out Jared Polec, Jasper Pittard, Jack Hombsch and Chad Wingard.The sale brought in Ryan Burton and draft capital that allowed the Power to scoop up Zak Butters, Connor Rozee and Xavier Duursma all in the top 18.
Instantly, Port Adelaide picked up two midfielders that will be locked into the team until the 2030s and soon became premiership contenders again.
Connor Rozee has become on the Power’s most important player. Picture: Sarah Reed/AFL Photos via Getty Images.
The Power brought in Zak Butters after a clean-out in 2018. Picture: Michael Willson/AFL Photos via Getty Images.
Wingard is the only player of the quality of the Richmond players potentially for sale – although Polec’s value was higher than you remember at the time.
Is a bounce available that quickly if the Tigers get their remaining veterans right?
It appears right now there are too many holes in the Richmond list, but things obviously look different if Tom Lynch, Gibcus and Dion Prestia are fit for a full year.
EAGLES HOLD FIRE
It was pretty plain to see by the end of 2022 that West Coast’s run as a contender was well over.But the Eagles made one solitary trade in 2022 – getting involved in the mega Jason Horne-Francis deal by sending out wantaway Willie Rioli.
Last off-season, the Eagles traded in Tyler Brockman and made a minor pick swap with Richmond.
This is the stand-pat example.
Should West Coast have moved Andrew Gaff on at the end of last year? Picture: Daniel Carson/AFL Photos via Getty Images.
Does premiership hero Dom Sheed have a future at the Eagles? Picture: Daniel Carson/AFL Photos via Getty Images.
There was interest in Tom Barras and Liam Ryan last off-season but the Eagles held firm and publicly hosed down speculation they could look to move Jack Darling.
Now Darling has no value, and veterans like Andrew Gaff and Dom Sheed are worth less to opposition clubs.
Their coaching job is so poisonous no highly rated assistant coach seems interested and Harley Reid and Oscar Allen are they only serious building blocks of a premiership side come 2030.
The Tigers may be forced to make more moves this off-season thanks to players pushing their way out but clearly standing still here for West Coast didn’t work.
SCOTT’S ROO CULL
It was the mother of all axe swings.Brent Harvey, Drew Petrie, Michael Firrito and Nick Dal Santo were all not offered contracts at the end of 2016.
Daniel Wells left in free agency and veteran Farren Ray was also cut.
On the surface, these all appeared reasonable moves for a club that had fallen out of a window that had included two preliminary finals and held the oldest list in the league.
North Melbourne players Drew Petrie, Brent Harvey, Nick Dal Santo and Michael Firrito walk from the field after their final game in 2016. Picture Sarah Reed
In 2017, the Roos were suddenly the second youngest list and starting with that year, they have finished 15th, ninth, 12th, 17th, 18th, 18th, 17th, with another bottom two finish looking likely.
The lesson from this example is to try and fade out veterans and keep more experience around.
Because most of those names were retiring, the Roos got nothing but cap space and list spots for their departure, whereas the Tigers conundrum is based on whether they cash in now.
Luke English
tigs2010
Pick 1...
Interesting article above.
Hard to compare Hawks 2001 as they made a PF before trading for pick 1.
Brisbane lost 5 kids for less value than they paid. Unless we trade and have 8 top 25 picks and use them all on interstate kids it's hard to compare and not really relevant.
Power only came 10th not last in 2018. The trading out and getting 3 good kids in fits but their base isn't as low so they bounced far quicker than we can. (I think injury free we are more 14th/15th but don't see Lynch being injury free again)
WC is what we can so sit tight and see what happens. I think that's an absolute certainty to take 5 years just to get the talent in. They're at 3 and have Reid & Ginbey
The North equivalent is us keeping the 4 guys rumoured to leave and then not offering contracts to Lynch, Dusty, Prestia, Nank, McIntosh, Broad and replacing them with 4th, 5th, 6th round picks and then in a few years time delist 10 players and replace with our natural 1st or 2nd pick in every round.
I think the 2 options we have are a more aggressive Port one from a lower base or the Eagles one.
Hard to compare Hawks 2001 as they made a PF before trading for pick 1.
Brisbane lost 5 kids for less value than they paid. Unless we trade and have 8 top 25 picks and use them all on interstate kids it's hard to compare and not really relevant.
Power only came 10th not last in 2018. The trading out and getting 3 good kids in fits but their base isn't as low so they bounced far quicker than we can. (I think injury free we are more 14th/15th but don't see Lynch being injury free again)
WC is what we can so sit tight and see what happens. I think that's an absolute certainty to take 5 years just to get the talent in. They're at 3 and have Reid & Ginbey
The North equivalent is us keeping the 4 guys rumoured to leave and then not offering contracts to Lynch, Dusty, Prestia, Nank, McIntosh, Broad and replacing them with 4th, 5th, 6th round picks and then in a few years time delist 10 players and replace with our natural 1st or 2nd pick in every round.
I think the 2 options we have are a more aggressive Port one from a lower base or the Eagles one.
If we let the guys go and take the picks we'll quickly overtake the Eagles. Maybe not in the short-term, but in terms of long-term premiership potential.Interesting article above.
Hard to compare Hawks 2001 as they made a PF before trading for pick 1.
Brisbane lost 5 kids for less value than they paid. Unless we trade and have 8 top 25 picks and use them all on interstate kids it's hard to compare and not really relevant.
Power only came 10th not last in 2018. The trading out and getting 3 good kids in fits but their base isn't as low so they bounced far quicker than we can. (I think injury free we are more 14th/15th but don't see Lynch being injury free again)
WC is what we can so sit tight and see what happens. I think that's an absolute certainty to take 5 years just to get the talent in. They're at 3 and have Reid & Ginbey
The North equivalent is us keeping the 4 guys rumoured to leave and then not offering contracts to Lynch, Dusty, Prestia, Nank, McIntosh, Broad and replacing them with 4th, 5th, 6th round picks and then in a few years time delist 10 players and replace with our natural 1st or 2nd pick in every round.
I think the 2 options we have are a more aggressive Port one from a lower base or the Eagles one.
tigs2010
Pick 1...
I think with FA the worst thing you can do is just do nothing but draft and keep your picks especially for a big club.
One thing the article got right was the value of our players. Graham second-rounder (pick 22), Baker mid-first (pick 10), Rioli two firsts (5 and 16 thanks Sunz), and Bolton more than that are you listening Freo fans.
I vote we get picks 5, 10, 16 and 22 and keep Shai.
We bundle late picks to Brisbane for pick 18. Then we have 1, 5, 10, 16, 18, 21, 22. Trade at least one of the latter picks on draft night for probs a future first and change.
I vote we get picks 5, 10, 16 and 22 and keep Shai.
We bundle late picks to Brisbane for pick 18. Then we have 1, 5, 10, 16, 18, 21, 22. Trade at least one of the latter picks on draft night for probs a future first and change.
Morro
Brownlow Medallist
Brooooo, when did you get funny? Dis gud 4 u
Hoos
Hooplehead
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I can't remember either name.
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Sid Draper is my number one pick . I think he’s got all the tools to be elite . Strong, explosive, kicks a goal and not scared to take the game on.
www.espn.com.au
Sid Draper: SANFL exploits could crown SA's next pick 1
Sid Draper has had to overcome injury and adversity in his top age season, but he's done it with aplomb and is back to playing footy with a vengence. It's why he's in the running to be South Australia's next No. 1 draft pick, writes Jasper Chellappah.
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Morro
Brownlow Medallist
It also highlights that noone has ever done what we could be considering doing. Its farkin bald that's for sure.Interesting article above.
Hard to compare Hawks 2001 as they made a PF before trading for pick 1.
Brisbane lost 5 kids for less value than they paid. Unless we trade and have 8 top 25 picks and use them all on interstate kids it's hard to compare and not really relevant.
Power only came 10th not last in 2018. The trading out and getting 3 good kids in fits but their base isn't as low so they bounced far quicker than we can. (I think injury free we are more 14th/15th but don't see Lynch being injury free again)
WC is what we can so sit tight and see what happens. I think that's an absolute certainty to take 5 years just to get the talent in. They're at 3 and have Reid & Ginbey
The North equivalent is us keeping the 4 guys rumoured to leave and then not offering contracts to Lynch, Dusty, Prestia, Nank, McIntosh, Broad and replacing them with 4th, 5th, 6th round picks and then in a few years time delist 10 players and replace with our natural 1st or 2nd pick in every round.
I think the 2 options we have are a more aggressive Port one from a lower base or the Eagles one.
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Morro
Brownlow Medallist
I am with you on this unless FOS starts playing to the level that many think he can.Sid Draper is my number one pick . I think he’s got all the tools to be elite . Strong, explosive, kicks a goal and not scared to take the game on.
Sid Draper: SANFL exploits could crown SA's next pick 1
Sid Draper has had to overcome injury and adversity in his top age season, but he's done it with aplomb and is back to playing footy with a vengence. It's why he's in the running to be South Australia's next No. 1 draft pick, writes Jasper Chellappah.
Draper and Lalor combo is my dream.
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Can't see why we would not want more draft picks? especially around the top ten where benefits are more likely historically and we can afford to show more patience than other clubs in the short term
Dusty retiring now.
Melbourne's first would be nice. Lyon on 'On the Couch' suggested scorched earth and mentioned Lynch, if we could get Melbourne's first as well that would be terrific, they are looking at having a crack next year it seems rather than through the draft.
Can't see why we would want future first either, we will have enough from next year anyway?
The current situation to me suggest the benefits of the draft are greater for RFC than North and West Coast let alone others.
Lyon mentioned Scorched earth in 'On the Couch' because RFC could rebound quickly from a real draft insurgence this year in the short term because of the collective depth and quality. Wes Coast will have their targets but most of those available are Victorians and West Coast already have talent on their list including H Reid, North also already have young talent. RFC have a few, Gibcus, Brown and a few others but really RFC are primed to hit the draft if they are smart, because Tassie is coming, they have a strong culture, have senior players that can guide before they move on and protect bodies and the fan base has had three recent premierships after a 30 year drought. Well that means hardcore RFC fans mostly will accept a little pain to avoid 30 years plus of hell. The other thing is our fans numbers have not dropped off compared to some clubs according to some reports so they are more likely to buy into youth development because RFC fans are largely passionate but not morons, they know what is the smart thing to do largely.
The idea is they come through at once, likely mates and will stick and attract others as the prospects enhance. Why move if it is happening here?? Melbourne, want to win now, Geelong want to win now others want to improve quicker, RFC would be smart just to accept the benefits of a little patience
I would be looking at what Essendon want for their first to? we can pay salaries to because we have to fill salary capo limits anyway
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noobermensch
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Going back to catch up on an early season game that I'd skipped. This was probably Jagga's weakest game of the season, which is remarkable to say given he still stuffed the stat sheet like few others are capable of.
For the first block of game this season Jagga and Oakleigh were experimenting with him more as a forward, so watching this will give viewers an idea of what that might look like at AFL level if he plays in a similar role early in his career. I think its fair to say that he never really settled as a forward this season. He really started to hit peak form once that experiment was largely abandoned in favour of him moving back into the midfield full time, and he didn't really start to motor in this particular game until moved into the midfield in the second half.
For the first block of game this season Jagga and Oakleigh were experimenting with him more as a forward, so watching this will give viewers an idea of what that might look like at AFL level if he plays in a similar role early in his career. I think its fair to say that he never really settled as a forward this season. He really started to hit peak form once that experiment was largely abandoned in favour of him moving back into the midfield full time, and he didn't really start to motor in this particular game until moved into the midfield in the second half.
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Jagga looks to me very Vanilla, ESPECIALLY for pick Number 1. I only get Fiorini type vibes..
On footage alone, he looks half as good as Draper who is explosives, or Smillie who has the potential to be a game breaker.
You can pick up a Jagga anywhere in the draft, in they learn to accumulate with fitness.
Unless FOS explodes between now and November, I would be hoping the choice is between Draper and Smillie.
On footage alone, he looks half as good as Draper who is explosives, or Smillie who has the potential to be a game breaker.
You can pick up a Jagga anywhere in the draft, in they learn to accumulate with fitness.
Unless FOS explodes between now and November, I would be hoping the choice is between Draper and Smillie.
We need two top 5 picks to end up with 2 of Draper, FOS, Smillie and Jagga. That would be a great start to a rebuild.
Morro
Brownlow Medallist
you forgot Lalor
tigs2010
Pick 1...
Our best chance is to get thumped this week and then magically pull a rabbit out of the hat in the last game
What's the chances we are the ONLY team GC beat on the road this season?Our best chance is to get thumped this week and then magically pull a rabbit out of the hat in the last game
tigs2010
Pick 1...
I've scientifically calculated it at 99.9%What's the chances we are the ONLY team GC beat on the road this season?
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He does give me Thompson Dow vibes.
An accumulator but not hurt factor...
Except Dow isn't even an accumulator and he's never dominated a game in his life.
tigs2010
Pick 1...
I missed that game
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