Prediction Upside: North v Pies

[Horace]

Collingwood is definitely capable of taking a big step next season and becoming a top-4 contender at least. Firstly there aren't any stand-out teams above apart from Hawthorn, and even they were simply just better than the rest this year without ever really looking invincible.

They were also the oldest premiership team ever since 1897, so it's only going to become more difficult for them to stay where they are at their age. They haven't replenished their team with free agents this year either, which has been successful for them recently.

I don't believe any of the other seven finalists are certain of making the finals again next season. Not even West Coast, although they should. It really is very even, so a few teams outside the eight could rise significantly.Collingwood lost an unprecedented 470 games through injury in 2013-14, which is a ridiculous number, and it resulted in a thorough investigation of club fitness methods. If any team replicates that injury toll over the next two years, they won't make the finals either.

Despite that injury run, Collingwood made the finals in 2013, and were equal 8th with one match to go in 2014, but a patched-up injury depleted team ended-up finishing only one game out of the finals. The injury toll was better this year, but it was always going to take twelve months to recover from the loss of Dayne Beams.

What hurt the most this year though is losing all of the six matches that were decided by less than 12 points, without winning any of them. Three of them were by less than a goal, and Collingwood were the better team in at least four of those six close losses. It doesn't take much to turn them into wins.Firstly, James Aish will be an A-grader, and he is a 100% chance of being a significant contributor. He has a true footy brain, and always has plenty of time. He is an elite decision maker and ball user on both sides, which is sorely missing when entering the forward 50. His disposal will assist Travis Cloke greatly, and he will find the right option most of the time.

His first season was fabulous, when he finished top-10 in Brisbane's best and fairest, and fourth in AFL Rising Star. He wasn't too bad last year, but his contract drama, and significant finger and jaw injuries didn't help, as well as being played in defence. He is most suited to high half-forward and midfield, and that's where he'll be played next season. He will improve Collingwood immediately.Travis Cloke will have a better season next year. He will benefit greatly from the improved ball use inside-50 from Adam Treloar and James Aish. He will also receive assistance from rotating midfielders spending more time forward such as Scott Pendlebury and Dane Swan.

Darcy Moore is capable of taking a big step next year, but if he can maintain his one goal per game average of this year, then that will be a handy second tall option. Collingwood will also look to Jeremy Howe (190cm), Jamie Elliott (178cm), and Alex Fasolo (181cm) at times, along with resting midfielders such as Pendlebury (191cm), Swan, Steele Sidebottom and others to kick more goals.

Hawthorn haven't had quality talls since Buddy Franklin has left, but that hasn't stopped them from winning the last two premierships. Ryan Schoenmakers was their centre half forward in this years Grand Final for goodness sake!

Hawthorn don't rely on quality talls. Jarryd Roughead and Jack Gunston are both only 193cm. Luke Breust is 183cm and Cyril Rioli is 177cm. That's where their goals have come from over the past two seasons. David Hale and Ben McEvoy haven't kicked many goals when they've rested forward.

What makes goal scoring much easier is winning in the midfield. If a team has more inside-50's, and uses the ball well, and finds the right option often when going forward, then they will probably kick more goals than the opposition.

If a team predictably bombs the ball forward to the main key forward who is being double and triple teamed often, then kicking goals becomes more difficult. Hopefully Collingwood's improved midfield will lead to a wider range of scoring options and make the opposition defence more accountable instead of them all manhandling and hanging on to Cloke.Nathan Brown has been terrific at full-back! He's only 26 years old, and he's a premiership winning key defender, who is one of the vice-captains, the 2015 best clubman, and he finished 6th in this years Copeland Trophy.

Ben Reid has been missed terribly though over the past two seasons. He's also a 26 year old premiership winning key defender, who finally made it back from injury and performed quite well late this season. Apparently he's in the best shape in years, and has been at the club since the season ended. He was originally a key forward, so he can also be moved forward when needed. He's a potential new recruit.

The best way to help the defence is by also winning in the midfield though, and Collingwood has increased the chances of winning the midfield regularly by adding Adam Treloar and James Aish. It runs very deep now with both inside and outside midfielders.Jesse White cops a lot of shit for what he doesn't do, but he had an overall career best season in 2015. He kicked 36 goals in 22 games, which is quite serviceable, and has provided decent ruck relief. Jarrod Witts will play in the ruck sometimes to relieve Brodie Grundy, and Mason Cox has performed well in the ruck and in the forward line in the VFL.

There were six current Collingwood players in the AFL under-24 team of the year squad (Brodie Grundy, Taylor Adams, Marley Williams, Tom Langdon, Jack Crisp, and Adam Treloar) which was the most of all clubs, and ahead of Western Bulldogs with five, and GWS with four. None of the current top-10 draft picks on the list made the squad either, but could in the next few years.

They are Matthew Scharenberg, James Aish, Jordan DeGoey and Darcy Moore. Therefore, Collingwood possibly has the best group of under-24 year olds in the AFL. Only rivaled by Western Bulldogs and GWS.

A breakout season could come from any one of them next year, and maybe even another first rounder from 2013, Tim Broomhead, who has had injury problems, but has shown lots of potential when fit. Many should continue to improve though with more experience and a better fitness base from another pre-season.

Collingwood only has seven players on the list who are between the ages of 24-26. Performances and consistency should improve as more players reach that age group. That said, the current age profile isn't that much different to 2010.

The average age of that premiership team was only 24 years and 57 days, and included 13 players who were under the age of 24. It was the youngest premiership team in 50 years. The Collingwood team next season will be very similar in age, so they should aim high because the competition is so even.

Okay, I'm sold. Spent 30 (wasted) seconds reading that stuff and as soon as I have had my toast and tea I'm off to put the house on the Pies. This time next year I'm gunna have about 20 houses. Woo hoo.

 

[Hearts to hearts]

Was thinking about this again in the light of the Treloar carry-on. Collingwood has a great list in the way GWS and GC have a great list - on paper, on potential. Lazy commentators say they will inevitably dominate the competition because they assume all or most drafted players go on to achieve at AFL level as they did in juniors. Which never happens. Of course they may lift against last year, win all the games they won plus all the games they nearly won, and off to successful finals. Or they may not. Much as I love ridiculing Richmond, it's facile to say a club with lots of junior potential has a better list than a club that finishes high and plays finals - if their list was better, they would be the ones winning more actual games. I suspect Treloar is used to being in a pond of young highly-rated talent with lots of hype, guaranteed game time and limited pressure, and is happy to continue in a similar setup.

 

[Passmore]

A fit Reid likely to play CHF?

I think that was the intention before injuries cut him down.

I'm sure that's their plan. Given how injury prone he's been, any significant output should be see as a bonus rather than an expectation.

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[see see]

Every teams' supporters have a tendency to overrate their own list, but the filth take it to another stratosphere.

Expect them to play well enough to be knocking on the door of the top four in the first half of next season and the media-fuelled bandwagon to be rolling at full tilt, only for it to fall in a screaming heap on the run home. They're the new * when it comes to late season fade outs.

 

[TooUglyForFugly]

The competition is in a sad state when the recruitment period is considered more important and worthy of praise than the playing period.

 

[roos_fanatic08]

lol at James Aish being an A-Grader. Has shown a bit but is a long way from being at that level.

 

[RobZombie]

Collingwood is definitely capable of taking a big step next season and becoming a top-4 contender at least. Firstly there aren't any stand-out teams above apart from Hawthorn, and even they were simply just better than the rest this year without ever really looking invincible.

Capable, sure. Not a slam dunk though. My gut feeling is they're still at least a year of incremental improvement away from heading back up to threaten the top few sides.

Firstly, James Aish will be an A-grader, and he is a 100% chance of being a significant contributor.

You still pushing that barrow? He's probably likely to be a contributor in the longer term. I should have said 50/50 to contribute straight away.

I'd be surprised if he's an A-grader. Consider our own ArjenTheGreat's measuring stick of "hard, fast, skillful", to which I'll add "smart". He's skillful enough and probably smart enough, but not hard or fast enough to be elite.

Nathan Brown has been terrific at full-back! He's only 26 years old, and he's a premiership winning key defender, who is one of the vice-captains, the 2015 best clubman, and he finished 6th in this years Copeland Trophy.

He's OK, but pretty much a pure negator and injury prone. Good on him for best clubman though; takes a lot of dedication to bring Nafe his tea and toast all season. Reid's better, but even more injury prone. Your list management team would be looking at how to upgrade KPDs.

 

[Saintly31]

I'm sure that's their plan. Given how injury prone he's been, any significant output should be see as a bonus rather than an expectation.

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Yeah, for sure. He is a very good player when fit which he seemingly never is.

I think quite a few are unfairly bagging Pies. They were actually going well last year until a tough stretch of games where they very narrowly dropped them, and then it seemed season fell apart.

It should also be noted they have pulled our pants down last two years.

Pendlebury, Swan, Treloar, Adams, De Goey, Sidebottom, Greenwood (not mentioning Scharenburg, Crisp, Aish) is a very handy midfield. Their forward line is weak which will hurt them, but second half of 8 is a realistic finish IMO.

Again, I don't think they will overtake us in 2016 especially after finals, but if they can keep their best 22 mostly fit I wouldn't be surprised at all if they are a key improver on the ladder as per WCE and Bulldogs in 2015.

 

[TooUglyForFugly]

The point is something you finally addressed in the last part. We're still better than them no matter how much ****-sucking the supporters, the media and anyone else wants to do.

 

[Passmore]

lol at James Aish being an A-Grader. Has shown a bit but is a long way from being at that level.

That Magpie mayo makes everything seem better than it actually is. It can even turn Jeremy Howe into Jack Gunston or Isaac Smith. Shit, it's probably enabling him to transform between each as the need arises.

If Aish ended up at North it would have been a case of us overpaying for unproven talent. He ends up at Collywood he a sure fire A grader.

 

[Only Forwards]

Yeah, for sure. He is a very good player when fit which he seemingly never is.

104 games in 9 years.

He is just about as broken as HMac was.

 

[Only Forwards]

Can he even see the ball with those dead eyes?

 

[RobZombie]

Again, I don't think they will overtake us in 2016 especially after finals, but if they can keep their best 22 mostly fit I wouldn't be surprised at all if they are a key improver on the ladder as per WCE and Bulldogs in 2015.

One pretty reliable indicator of improvement is sides finishing outside the 8 with high percentage. Us with 119.5 in 2013, WC 116.9 and Crows 114.1 in 2014.

Collingwood's 106.3 is higher than a 12th-place team should do but still only has them 10th if you rank the teams by % and is 10% below the above teams that have underperformed on wins recently. And given that it's up from 94.1/11th the year before, you could argue that they've already had their leap forward and probably don't have another one of the same magnitude in them next year.

 

[Horace]

Please people, don't ruin my dreams. I've been and put the house (and all of your's too) on the Pies for the flag.

We'll be that far in front financially this time next year, we'll be able to buy the Pies, change their colours marginally to add some Royal Blue to replace the black, rename them and the world will be so much better a place. Not sure what we can do about *essendon though.

 

[KissStephanie]

Do you expect me to read this shit?

Not at all. I wasn't responding to you on anything you said. Thanks for responding to me though. Cheers!

Aish struggled to make the Brisbane team and Treloar was in a GWS team that only finished one spot above Collingwood and they had a much superior midfield and forward line to Collingwood, plus there has been the inclusion of Howe, who was a plodder with the odd highlight.

James Aish didn't struggle to make the Brisbane team. He was top-10 in their 2014 Best and Fairest as an 18 year old, and was very much a required player that they did not want to lose. He will be elite, and will thrive playing in Melbourne on the MCG.

Many believe that Jeremy Howe has much improvement within him, but despite that, he's still finished in the top-10 in Melbourne's best and fairest in 2014 and 2015. That's not too bad for a plodder.

Hopefully he can become a better player at the club he barracked for as a child, and with good players around him. I think most Collingwood supporters are prepared to wait and see without any great expectations yet though.

Adam Treloar is a very, very good player. Attempting to try to talk him down won't change that. He had a fantastic 2015 despite his groin injury, which should be fine now after his infamous surgery. I believe he'll take his game to another level playing in Melbourne on the MCG.

So, it is not like they have acquired the type of players from premiership teams that know how to win flags, they got a player from teams finishing 17th, 13th and 11th.

Collingwood have eleven players on the list that have played in a premiership, and know how to win a flag. Ten of them played in the Collingwood 2010 premiership team, as well as Travis Varcoe who played in the Geelong premiership teams of 2009 and 2011. That's plenty of premiership knowledge and experience around the club.

I also fail to see the relevance of where their former clubs finished. There have been many great players who play for struggling clubs, and numerous Brownlow Medallists played in teams that didn't make even make the finals.

I can understand why Collingwood supporters are optimistic, they had 7 losses by 3 goals or less and had 10 wins so there is the potential to turn some of those narrow losses into wins, however, there is [/B]no guarantee that some of the teams they had beaten this year will not turn around and beat them next year[/B] so prediction is often pissing into the wind.

Six of those losses were by under two goals, and three of those losses were by under one goal. Collingwood didn't win any of the close matches, but were the better team in four of them.

Of course there aren't any guarantees in footy, but I feel quite confident that Collingwood can beat the same teams again next season. Therefore it's quite possible they could win six or seven more matches next year by turning some of the close losses into wins, as well as natural overall improvement.

Realistically, teams only go forward and improve as top 4 teams when the entire group evolve and develops, these inclusions didn't come for free, it cost them players and picks, they have lost Freeman, Seedsman, Kennedy and others. While some might say they are not huge losses, these are the type of players that were talked of as "potential". That is the problem with potential, it often doesn't realise.

Firstly, Nathan Freeman isn't a loss because he hasn't played a single game. He can't weaken the Collingwood team because he's never been in it. One of the reasons he left was because he didn't even rate his own chances of getting a game, which is a shit attitude to have, and there are serious questions over the state of his hamstring.

Paul Seedsman was no longer required, so he isn't a loss either. He was being shopped around, so he decided to search for a new club instead. If I was home, I would have been more than happy to drive him to the airport for his flight to Adelaide myself. Bye Seeds!

Ben Kennedy played only five matches this year and averaged eleven disposals. He played eight matches in 2014 and averaged only twelve disposals. There are too many of his type readily available, but all the best to him. He isn't a loss and doesn't weaken Collingwood's team though.

I don't know who the "others" are you mentioned though, so I can't comment on them. Maybe you can please provide the names of those players instead so I can share my opinion on them. I don't know who you could be referring to.

A lot of the guys they brought in of the ilk like Greenwood/Aish are on above market value coin, and while very handy I'm not sure have the ability to take them far enough to contend, guys like Pendlebury and Sidebottom etc still have plenty of years left in them.

What is Levi Greenwood being paid at Collingwood? I don't believe it to be an excessive amount. James Aish rejected a greater offer from North Melbourne, and they were determined to get him, so it seems your club rates him very highly, and rightly so. A lot of people seem to be ignorant or have forgotten the immense talent of Aish. This article might refresh some memories.

Irrespective of this thread, I'm optimistic about our Irrespective of this thread, I'm optimistic about our future, if Collingwood passes us, it may be a year or two at best.

Collingwood, Geelong, Port Adelaide, and maybe even GWS could pass North Melbourne next season. At this stage, I believe three of them will finish higher. Time will tell.

 

[ArjenTheGreat]

It should also be noted they have pulled our pants down last two years.

This is precisely the reason that none of their supporters rate us.

It's hard to argue on that basis alone.

It's why none of us rate Richmond, despite them finishing higher on the H/A ladder than us twice in the last few years.

I'd be surprised if he's an A-grader. Consider our own ArjenTheGreat's measuring stick of "hard, fast, skillful", to which I'll add "smart". He's skillful enough and probably smart enough, but not hard or fast enough to be elite.

It's the basis for building a team capable of challenging for a premiership.

Aish would be lucky to get a game for us or Collingwood. In no world other than that of a deluded Collingwood supporter would he be considered A-Grade.

Pendles, Swan, Sidebottom, Treloar = yes. Aish is about a C Grader, behind the B or B+ players such as Crisp, Levi, Adams.


We have 5 genuine A-Graders in Goldstein, Harvey, Cunnington, Higgins and Wells.
They have 8: Pendles, Swan, Sidebottom, Treloar, Cloke, Reid, Toovey and Elliott.


For Collingwood to even make the finals, they need these blokes to stay fit and play at their best for 20+ weeks, and kick straight.

 

[TooUglyForFugly]

Wait, Toovey and Elliott? Did I miss something?

For once I won't be sarcastic about it.

 

[KissStephanie]

Capable, sure. Not a slam dunk though. My gut feeling is they're still at least a year of incremental improvement away from heading back up to threaten the top few sides.

What do you mean by "slam dunk?" I simply don't understand this kind of thought process. It goes without saying that nothing is certain in footy, and there isn't any team that is guaranteed of playing in the finals of course. In my opinion Collingwood will be top-4 contenders next season though, and I also believe there isn't any stand-out and invincible team.

You still pushing that barrow? He's probably likely to be a contributor in the longer term. I should have said 50/50 to contribute straight away.

I'm absolutely still "pushing that barrow." James Aish will be an A-grade star, and I'm absolutely rapt he's at Collingwood. He has an elite footy brain and skills on both sides, and playing in Melbourne on the MCG will bring out the best in him. He will immediately improve Collingwood. He has just turned 20 years of age, yet many speak of him as if he's 25 and has already shown what his capable of.

He's OK, but pretty much a pure negator and injury prone. Good on him for best clubman though; takes a lot of dedication to bring Nafe his tea and toast all season.

Nathan Brown had a knee reconstruction in 2011, and a shoulder reconstruction in 2014, which can happen in footy, but he isn't injury prone. He's one of the vice-captains and finished 6th in Copeland Trophy after playing 21 matches this year. You might be getting mixed-up with his identical twin brother Mitch Brown of West Coast.

Reid's better, but even more injury prone. Your list management team would be looking at how to upgrade KPDs.

Ben Reid has had two years of soft tissue problems, but nothing prior to that. He returned late last year and performed well, and is reported to be in his best condition in years and already preparing for next season. I'm quite happy with those two 26 year old premiership winning key defenders.

I'm sure that's their plan. Given how injury prone he's been, any significant output should be see as a bonus rather than an expectation.

I think the plan is to play Ben Reid in defence, and he has already returned and played well late in the season. The club is confident he is over his problems, and his form after he returned late last season supports that, so I think it's expected. It was important that he played those last five matches without any concerns.

 

[Twinkletoes]

In the washup of Collingwood's 2010 flag win the media to a man said "given their talented youth it's difficult to see anyone overtaking them for premiership favouritism in the near to medium future."

*still waiting*

 

[Heaps of fun]

If Aish ended up at North it would have been a case of us overpaying for unproven talent. He ends up at Collywood he a sure fire A grader.

Nothing surer.
Collwood gets Anderson: pinched the next Cyril.
North: wasted a first rounder (lie propagated unchecked) on untried talent.

 

[ArjenTheGreat]

Wait, Toovey and Elliott? Did I miss something?

For once I won't be sarcastic about it.

Toovey is an absolute gun IMO (Thomas never does anything on him, and routinely beats up on others) and Elliott is IMO one of the best small forwards in the game too.

Collingwood's List > Richmond's List

Why are we arguing with an American Collingwood supporter....? Even their aussie based supporters who attend games know nothing.

 

[TooUglyForFugly]

Nothing surer.
Collwood gets Anderson: pinched the next Cyril.
North: wasted a first rounder (lie propagated unchecked) on untried talent.

A few of our own supporters were thinking that.

 

[Only Forwards]

In the washup of Collingwood's 2010 flag win the media to a man said "given their talented youth it's difficult to see anyone overtaking them for premiership favouritism in the near to medium future."

*still waiting*

Facebook told me that was the begining of a Dynasty.

 

[TooUglyForFugly]

More like a dumb-nasty. Amirite?

... iamrong.

 

[muttley45]

Big hurdle for Pies to jump for any improvement is Nafans extremely consistent dropoff in coaching performance around June each season