US Election 2020: President Elect Biden and VP Elect Harris

[Chief]

This thread is continued in... The Aftermath

US Election 2020: President Biden and VP Harris - The Aftermath

Now we have most of the main players confirmed its time to start the thread on this Pence I assume will be Trumps VP - but I will leave the ? until confirmed https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/generic?iso=20210120T09&p0=900&msg=Inauguration+2021&font=sanserif

www.bigfooty.com

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Narrowing a little but still >5%. Trumps been hitting it hard, but there will be a ceiling.

Its worth noting also that Pennsylvania is a must win for Trump, but Biden has a plethora of other paths. The polling would need to be disastrously wrong in many states.

Which is why Trumps down to 11% on fivethirtyeight this morning, which is a new low.

Biden doesn't have a plethora of other realistic paths without Pennsylvania.

You'd be banking on him winning some combination of NC, Iowa, Ohio and/or Arizona. I'd say those become increasingly unlikely if he can't flip Pennsylvania and we're then into tiny margins.

So don't overstate his chances without Pennsylvania.

 

[RobbieK]

Good luck without Pennsylvania.

That's what I said.

Based on guesswork or what you read 5 minutes ago.

Stop bluffing.

Not a bluff or guesswork. Please, tell me how Trump has more ways to 278 without PA than Biden.

 

[Fire]

Biden doesn't have a plethora of other realistic paths without Pennsylvania.

You'd be banking on him winning some combination of NC, Iowa, Ohio and/or Arizona. I'd say those become increasingly unlikely if he can't flip Pennsylvania and we're then into tiny margins.

So don't overstate his chances without Pennsylvania.

According to 538 he is still favorite if he loses Pennsylvania but picks up the other two rust belt states. Which aren't narrowing and he leads >8%.

You left out Florida from your list which is also a game over for Trump.

As I said, the polls would need to be incredibly wrong all over the map. Not impossible, just highly unlikely. 11% isn't 0. But there's every reason to be increasingly chill with the situation. You're not going to go into an election with a more favorable position than this.

 

[Bareth Garry]

I'm not American so I have no say in this fight.

From an outside perspective though it seems Trump has gone all in on an "extremely online" campaign which caters to culture war nonsense and as if everyone is either extreme right or extreme left, whereas Biden is (if he wins) appealing to a lot more people in the middle.

Maybe the biggest mistake Trump's party did in these four years is act as if he was elected in a landslide and had a big mandate to treat politics like WWE. If he governed acknowledging more people voted for his opponent and tried to reach out to them then he might be in a better position now.

From an outside perspective of the NZ election just held it seemed for the first time in ages the two main contenders in a national election battled over bread and butter issues and substantive policy matters rather than mud-fighting.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Not a bluff or guesswork. Please, tell me how Trump has more ways to 278 without PA than Biden.

Biden probably needs to flip three states to win - two if he manages to flip Florida but that seems increasingly unlikely. But sure, it's possible.

The most likely path for Biden would be to flip Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. If he can't flip Pennsylvania then you are banking on him pulling something out of the hat elsewhere in states where any polling lead is narrower. If he can't flip Pennsylvania, you're hoping for Iowa or Ohio or NC. Good luck. These are tight and will probably stay Republican if Pennsylvania doesn't flip.

Sure, maybe Arizona, but then you're looking at something like 270 electoral votes, which is likely to lead to a disputed result - it could boil down to the distribution of votes in one of the Maine districts.

In other words, Biden needs Pennsylvania.

It may not be that close. Maybe I'm being conservative and bracing for a glass half-empty scenario. Maybe Biden flips a bunch of states, including Florida, and it's all done and dusted with a clear margin. I suspect it will be closer with those red-leaning toss-ups staying red, which means it comes down to the rust belt and Pennsylvania likely proves decisive.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

According to 538 he is still favorite if he loses Pennsylvania but picks up the other two rust belt states. Which aren't narrowing and he leads >8%.

You left out Florida from your list which is also a game over for Trump.

As I said, the polls would need to be incredibly wrong all over the map. Not impossible, just highly unlikely. 11% isn't 0. But there's every reason to be increasingly chill with the situation. You're not going to go into an election with a more favorable position than this.

Stop looking at projections like that's evidence.

And no, the polls wouldn't need to be "incredibly wrong all over the map". These are overstatements. Your certainty is unjustified.

If Biden can't flip Pennsylvania, he's probably not flipping Florida.

Jump on an interactive map and put Florida and Pennsylvania in Trump's column. Look at what's left on the board and consider the needle Biden would need to thread to win from there.

Come election night, if Biden wins one of Florida or Pennsylvania, I'll be confident. If he wins neither, you'll be hoping for a distinctly unlikely path to victory for Biden or you're looking at a Trump win or a disputed result with tiny margins.

 

[Plugger35]

Fancy Dubya viewing someone else as a moron.

That's how low the bar has sunk in Republican politics.

Doesn't say much for the Democrat candidates that couldn't beat either of them in an election.

 

[RobbieK]

Biden probably needs to flip three states to win - two if he manages to flip Florida but that seems increasingly unlikely. But sure, it's possible.

The most likely path for Biden would be to flip Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. If he can't flip Pennsylvania then you are banking on him pulling something out of the hat elsewhere in states where any polling lead is narrower. If he can't flip Pennsylvania, you're hoping for Iowa or Ohio or NC. Good luck. These are tight and will probably stay Republican if Pennsylvania doesn't flip.

Sure, maybe Arizona, but then you're looking at something like 270 electoral votes, which is likely to lead to a disputed result - it could boil down to the distribution of votes in one of the Maine districts.

In other words, Biden needs Pennsylvania.

It may not be that close. Maybe I'm being conservative and bracing for a glass half-empty scenario. Maybe Biden flips a bunch of states, including Florida, and it's all done and dusted with a clear margin. I suspect it will be closer with those red-leaning toss-ups staying red, which means it comes down to the rust belt and Pennsylvania likely proves decisive.

So, I ask you to tell me how Trump wins without PA and instead you give me the options available to Biden to win without PA... All the while maintaining that Trump doesn't need PA as much as Biden.

Seriously, get a grip. No one ever said that Pennsylvania isn't the likely decisive state. No one said that without Pennsylvania a candidate will struggle to win. The only thing said was that Biden has more ways to do that than Trump, and so PA is less vital to him than it is to Trump. That you are yet to give me a realistic way Trump gets to 278 without PA speaks volumes to that point.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

So, I ask you to tell me how Trump wins without PA and instead you give me the options available to Biden to win without PA... All the while maintaining that Trump doesn't need PA as much as Biden.

Seriously, get a grip. No one ever said that Pennsylvania isn't the likely decisive state. No one said that without Pennsylvania a candidate will struggle to win. The only thing said was that Biden has more ways to do that than Trump, and so PS is less vital to him than it is to Trump. That you are yet to give me a realistic way Trump gets to 278 without PA speaks volumes to that point.

Is this your first election?

Trump got elected four years ago. That outcome is now "unrealistic"?

Peel off Pennsylvania and he'd still have won.

Both Biden and Trump can theoretically win without Pennsylvania but it's unlikely in both cases.

 

[RobbieK]

Is this your first election?

Trump got elected four years ago. That outcome is now "unrealistic"?

Peel off Pennsylvania and he'd still have won.

It isn't 2016. It ain't the same election. It isn't the same candidates. It isn't the same polling for Trump, it is even worse in even more places.

So no, take away PA and Trump has more or less no realistic route to the White house. Take away PA from Biden and he is struggling, but has realistic paths that you yourself acknowledged.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

It isn't 2016. It ain't the same election. It isn't the same candidates. It isn't the same polling for Trump, it is even worse in even more places.

More received wisdom.

It may turn out that the polls are exactly right. But don't pretend to be more certain than you can justify.

So no, take away PA and Trump has more or less no realistic route to the White house. Take away PA from Biden and he is struggling, but has realistic paths that you yourself acknowledged.

That depends what you consider "realistic". I don't think it is wildly unrealistic to suggest Trump has some chance to hold certain states he won four years ago, even though polling suggests he is well behind.

Look at Wisconsin four years ago. RCP average gave Clinton a lead of 6 percent and she lost. Was that "realistic"?

Both could theoretically win without Pennsylvania but it is unlikely in both cases.

 

[BigTacoBandit]

That's interesting - where did you read that?

It sounds suspiciously close to Trump's claim at the debate that the CDC said 85% of the people who wear masks catch the virus.

As usual, Trump got confused, said the wrong and his supporters take it as gospel.

What the CDC said was that among the COVID-19 patients surveyed in its study, 85% reported they “always” or “often” wore a mask in the 14 days before illness onset.

 

[samFFC]

This settles it:

 

[melbournemartin]

Narrowing a little but still >5%. Trumps been hitting it hard, but there will be a ceiling.

Its worth noting also that Pennsylvania is a must win for Trump, but Biden has a plethora of other paths. The polling would need to be disastrously wrong in many states.

Which is why Trumps down to 11% on fivethirtyeight this morning, which is a new low.

I believe 538 had Biden at like a 35% chance of winning the EC if he lost PA.

Trump's chances go down to like 5% or something though.

 

[Sweet Jesus]

Polling in Nevada also weird.

 

[melbournemartin]

What To Make Of That New Wisconsin Poll That Has Biden Way Ahead

Once in a blue moon, you see a poll that makes you blink twice to make sure you’re not seeing things. This morning’s ABC News/The Washington Post survey of Wisc…

fivethirtyeight.com

17 point lead for Biden in Wisconsin. An outlier, sure, as the previous polling average was about 7, but apparently this is one of the highest quality polls.

Too many Trumpers dying after his rally it seems.

 

[ChappyUK]

What To Make Of That New Wisconsin Poll That Has Biden Way Ahead

Once in a blue moon, you see a poll that makes you blink twice to make sure you’re not seeing things. This morning’s ABC News/The Washington Post survey of Wisc…

fivethirtyeight.com

17 point lead for Biden in Wisconsin. An outlier, sure, as the previous polling average was about 7, but apparently this is one of the highest quality polls.

Too many Trumpers dying after his rally it seems.

17% lol. Did they poll the local starbucks?

 

[Fire]

I believe 538 had Biden at like a 35% chance of winning the EC if he lost PA.

Trump's chances go down to like 5% or something though.

Yes, which is more than 3 times higher than Trumps current chance. I think we read the same article ^^. My intuition suggests it would be much higher as I think it is unlikely that trump will win the other two rust belt states; Trump has been focusing on Pen so they aren't tied as strongly as their model probably suggests; however I am not going to speculate too much on that as I don't want to cite them when its good and dismiss them when its bad. The main point is that Pennsylvania is important to Biden but it is by no means the be all and end all. Trumps chances go down to 2% without Pennsylvania, so to say its more important to Biden than him, as was suggested, is simply baseless.


11% is not 0%, but for all practical purposes, Trump will lose this election. The bigger question now, and has been for a while, is whether or not that means that he will leave office. Votes, from voters or the EC or both, may not determine this election. Make no mistake, even a slight red mirage on election night (which we are all but certain to get), Trump will declare victory (or something approaching this). Courts will be involved, votes will not be counted. The seeds have been planted and they have been opaque for a long time now.

 

[melbournemartin]

I mean Trump is sort of at Russian Roulette level's of winning.

Also we need to remember that there is a LOT more on the cards than just the presidency:

1) The house, but that'll almost certainly remain Democrat, regardless of anything else
2) The senate, obviously, which is presently favoured to flip blue but less likely than a Biden win
3) The often neglected house legislatures. They are WAY more important than most years because this is a census year, meaning that more state control = more redistricting control. Also, if the Supreme Court knocks down things like gay marriage and abortion, then states will have to pick up the slack.

 

[Stocks_go_Up]

LOL at Biden not protecting police officers being attacked by a knife wielding abuser.. Do we need to show what happened last time a police officer tried to tase someone coming at her with a knife (hint hint she got stabbed and nearly died if not for her partner shooting him)..

 

[ChappyUK]

LOL at Biden not protecting police officers being attacked by a knife wielding abuser.. Do we need to show what happened last time a police officer tried to tase someone coming at her with a knife (hint hint she got stabbed and nearly died if not for her partner shooting him)..


View attachment 997655

But they want to increase mental health risks by enforcing strict lockdowns.

 

[ChappyUK]

 

[melbournemartin]

Yeah, that type of campaigning is going to win you new votes...

 

[The Passenger]

Yeah, that type of campaigning is going to win you new votes...

The lameness levels are off the charts.

 

[The Passenger]

48 years on and nothing has changed.

The main problem in any democracy is that crowd-pleasers are generally brainless swine who can go out on a stage & whup their supporters into an orgiastic frenzy - then go back to the office & sell every one of those poor bastard's down the tube for a nickel apiece.