Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 3

[Rotayjay]

While we've been watching China and Taiwan looking for the next war, it is looking increasingly likely that Vladimir Putin's Russia will invade Ukraine. Will that happen and what would that mean for Ukrainians, the world and Australia?

I think Russia will invade, Biden will wag his finger and say tsk tsk. Then the EU and US impose sanctions and Putin installs a puppet government in Ukraine. That's just me eyeballing the situation without analysing it or being a geopolitics expert.

I just can't see America going to war over an Eastern European country that is not a traditional ally like Australia or France. If they do go to war, all us men of military age would be liable for conscription. There may be nuclear war in the extreme (and extremely unlikely) scenario, and in that case you can kiss your arse goodbye.

 

[dumb]

No fly zone where it takes another Russian 'mistake' to escalate

 

[Zidane98]

Russia is indeed trying to say this is a Ukrainian strike. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-63593855

Russia's playbook will be 'Ukraine did this, to increase NATO involvement, it's a false-flag move'. They'll claim this because this is exactly what they'd do.

If Ukraine were to try such a move, and it got out, NATO support for them would... well, it might not instantly dry up completely, but a lot of support for Ukraine would wane, and badly. It would enormously risky, and difficult to fake. Occam's Razor seems to apply.

They say that about every horrific thing they do even in the face of mounting evidence to the contrary. What they need a lesson in is the concept of plausible deniability.


They are still bringing up ridiculous conspiracy theories in the MH17 court case in Netherlands for example.


"Nothing is confirmed until the Kremlin denies it or accuses the other side of it" is a good way to approach any of their claims.

 

[Lethality]

Sounds like a real meat grinder in the Donbas. Kherson troops are moving there to reinforce.

 

[rainwizard39]

I highly doubt that. If they wanted to take Kiev, they would have shelled the living s**t out of it.

They've actually been holding back (relatively speaking).

Russia have 1,750 BM-21 Grad multiple rocket launchers:

A battalion of 18 of these trucks, is able to launch 720 (20 kilo HE) rockets in a single volley, up to 30kms away.

Even assuming 1/3 of their Rocket artillery arsenal is operative (500 or so), that's an insane amount of firepower they can bring to bear.

Russian doctrine is basically to shell the living s**t out a target with these things. Literally pound it into dust. Then roll in Motor Rifle Brigades (Armor and AFV's).

They've held back so far, and havent gone down this path.

That’s such a bs take. If Russia only wanted the donetsk region like you think, they would of stopped by now.

It’s easy to say the Kyiv push was a “feint” when it was a failure. They simply didn’t have enough soldiers or equipment to take Kyiv and had to give up.

You really overestimate russian military intelligence. This is a nation that has gone to war with its most important military asset (their only air craft carrier) being out of action.

You realise ukriane also has 100s more mlrs too, outside of just those himars USA have them?

 

[Hornberger]

I have been thinking about what would it make sense for Poland to do about this, not what they would like to do but what do they think the US would back them in doing.

Placing SAM's close to the Ukraine border or even some distance inside Ukraine to "protect NATO from stray Russian missiles", while shooting down every Russian missile in said SAM's range.

In effect helping to protect Lviv as well as Poland.

I feel something like that would make sense, except the SAM's would only be placed on Polish soil.

Declare that the area within 100/150 km of the Poland - Belarus and Poland - Ukraine borders (but not Kaliningrad) is protected by Polish air defence, and any missile or military aircraft deemed hostile will be shot down.

A Russian missile killing people in Poland requires a response, but the response needs to be proportional to avoid further escalation. Similar to Turkey shooting down a Russian jet that was violating Turkish airspace a few years ago.

 

[Cap]

Sounds like a real meat grinder in the Donbas. Kherson troops are moving there to reinforce.

It's horrifying. I can't understand how any one sane isn't anti war.

Putin needs to be held accountable as does every single Russian who supports him

 

[Spearman]

Wonder how long before we hear about theses bad boys being used....

The Israeli defense company Elbit is promoting the Lanius drone. It is derived from a racing drone and has multiple imaging cameras for 3D and FLIR. Has about 7 minutes flying duration. It can be carried into battle in a backpack or a larger drone can carry 3 of them at a time and pass them off to the local users or be controlled by others.

It has AI that helps targeting: it can identify weapons for example.

It is capable of carrying lethal and non-lethal payloads.

These Israeli Urban Battlefield Assassin Drones Are Nightmare Fuel (thedrive.com)

 

[Visions]

A precarious position now...

Is it worth Poland, and NATO getting involved over a stray missile ? Probably not. But then at the same time, how far will they let Russia go? There needs to be some sort of line. But Putin is nuts, Russia is already losing the war. Even a small air strike in revenge might escalate Putin into madness 'its Russia vs the world'. But perhaps that's what he wants us to think, madman theory like Nixon.

The Russian people via their lovely media have already been brainwashed into thinking it's them vs NATO as it stands. They have had to do that as they can't exactly say they are losing territory to the sub standard Ukrainians. So upping the stakes by having NATO getting more involved wouldn't change the average Russian perception.

However there does need to be some sort of response by NATO otherwise Putin will see that by pushing the boundaries with this rocket, having no response will mean he can do it again, and again without retribution.

What that response will be? I doubt anything major (though a mysterious smoking accident on a warship in the black sea would be nice), however if there was any doubt, it has ensured that NATO will help Ukraine out for as along as it takes.

 

[Jbudds]

Can Poland do nothing?

 

[CD Xbow]

The Russian people via their lovely media have already been brainwashed into thinking it's them vs NATO as it stands. They have had to do that as they can't exactly say they are losing territory to the sub standard Ukrainians. So upping the stakes by having NATO getting more involved wouldn't change the average Russian perception.

However there does need to be some sort of response by NATO otherwise Putin will see that by pushing the boundaries with this rocket, having no response will mean he can do it again, and again without retribution.

What that response will be? I doubt anything major (though a mysterious smoking accident on a warship in the black sea would be nice), however if there was any doubt, it has ensured that NATO will help Ukraine out for as long as it takes.

Yes, another own goal by Mr P. It's getting to be a long & embarrassing list.

Can Poland do nothing?

Potentially Poland can do whatever it wants, however a NATO response would be better.

 

[ibd77]

It was only a matter of time until this conflict went astray and ended up in an neutral territory. I am sure Poland & NATO will give the benefit of the doubt to a miss directed rocket or missile in their territory. But they should use this to turn the political screws against Russia and that the next incident will involve neutralising the faulty equipment that is placing their territory in harms' way.

 

[Visions]

The Russian war machine is so predictable. After their humiliation of surrednering Kherson they were always going to respond the only way they know how how. The barrage of rockets overnight on Ukraine was on a similar scale to that a month or so ago. 90 missiles fired, with 73 shot down. So air defences are working.

Intel reports are that Russia's cruise missiles are reportedly low on stock. A few more humiliations and they may run out completely.



Air defence of Ukraine at work.

 

[footyfan1978]

Poland, Estonia and Latvia and Lithuania have been itching to get involved more, but NATO has likely held them back.

My guess would be that moving troops/assets to the Kaliningrad and Belarus borders would be the response, along with warnings that they're willing to use them if another missile "accidentally" kills their citizens.

Polish people HATE russians with a passion we in non-Soviet countries can't even imagine. Russia has now killed two of their citizens. A non-escalation is not a politically-possible option for their Govt, regardless of the US and NATO trying to tone them down.

Maybe it'll just be a huge chunk more ammo and support for Ukraine, maybe something more direct.

Think it will lead to more ammo for Ukraine.

 

[Jbudds]

Yes, another own goal by Mr P. It's getting to be a long & embarrassing list.

Potentially Poland can do whatever it wants, however a NATO response would be better.

ok, Can Nato do nothing? What I am asking is that now that a missile has gone into Poland, can this be ignored or is a response required? Does that response have to be military?

For example, Nato send a missile into Russian forces. Tit for Tat? Or does that lead to further escalation. It really seems at the moment Nato should stay out of it and Russia is failing. IT would seem to me at this stage it's better for that to remain the case.

Or maybe that's what Russia is trying to do?

 

[CD Xbow]

ok, Can Nato do nothing? What I am asking is that now that a missile has gone into Poland, can this be ignored or is a response required? Does that response have to be military?

For example, Nato send a missile into Russian forces. Tit for Tat? Or does that lead to further escalation. It really seems at the moment Nato should stay out of it and Russia is failing. IT would seem to me at this stage it's better for that to remain the case.

Or maybe that's what Russia is trying to do?

I think you'll find a wide range of opinions, ranging from nothing, diplomatic through to something kinetic. Personally, I see this as an opportunity to do 'something' to end the war quicker.

 

[Frank Grimes]

Can Poland do nothing?

They could do that if they want, but doing so would encourage Putin to cross lines and boundaries knowing that there will be no consequences.

At the same time they wouldn't want go in with a sledgehammer and escalate things.

I'd say a proportional response will be needed. The suggestion of Poland moving the SAMS close to the Ukrainian border earlier seems about right, but also perhaps for NATO to start sending some equipment for the Ukrainian forces they have been holding back on and training on how to use it.

Ukraine already has HIMARS and rockets that can go up to 70km. Perhaps send a dozen of the missiles that they can launch which can go up to 300km.

 

[Andre]

IF your missiles aren’t accurate, you don’t fire them near territory of a neighbour you don’t want to fight.
It’s quite simple really. No point risking escalation in a war you are currently not winning.

Bad decision, likely due to cascading human error….

NATO should be saying, that given their inaccuracy, they have no choice, but to shoot down every missile and drone they see flying over Ukraine and Belarus. No need to escalate it to attacking launch sites. Of course Russia with the immediate denial. No 'we regret our missiles went off course, we didn't intend to target Poland and apologise and will compensate those affected' to get in front of it. Deny deny as always with them.

 

[Upstart Swan]

The Russian war machine is so predictable. After their humiliation of surrednering Kherson they were always going to respond the only way they know how how. The barrage of rockets overnight on Ukraine was on a similar scale to that a month or so ago. 90 missiles fired, with 73 shot down. So air defences are working.

Targeting energy infrastructure to cut off electricity and gas in Kyiv, with 0 degree temperatures forecast in the coming days (lower at night). There's some debate as to whether this can be considered a war crime, though the Russians of course will argue they're not targeting civilians.

 

[Cap]

I think the ultimate troll will be EU taking the Russian money held from sanctions and building massive renewable energy systems all through Ukraine, big enough to export electricity back into Europe .

 

[Baldur]

NATO should be saying, that given their inaccuracy, they have no choice, but to shoot down every missile and drone they see flying over Ukraine and Belarus. No need to escalate it to attacking launch sites. Of course Russia with the immediate denial. No 'we regret our missiles went off course, we didn't intend to target Poland and apologise and will compensate those affected' to get in front of it. Deny deny as always with them.

"The rules are simple: they lie to us, we know they're lying, they know we know they're lying, but they keep lying to us, and we keep pretending to believe them"

Vranyo (systemic lying) is part of the Russian way of life.

 

[TedDougChris]

I wonder if supplying more modern aircraft to Ukraine could be part of the response ??

 

[LittleG]

Anti-Missile rocket fired at a Russian missile landed in Poland.

I doubt article 5 will be activated by Poland…. which would have NATO attack …. ummmm…. Ukraine….

 

[footyfan1978]

I think you'll find a wide range of opinions, ranging from nothing, diplomatic through to something kinetic. Personally, I see this as an opportunity to do 'something' to end the war quicker.

Whilst it is, morally for us, these reps from the nations need to have a consensus in NATO protocols, if I understand how it works, which a wide range of opinions will not lead to consensus as an alliance.

 

[Zidane98]

Pretty obvious where the missile came from that fell in Poland...