Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 3

[Visions]

Another supply line exhausted. Reports suggest Iran can only manufacture 20 of these a month too.

 

[Frank Grimes]

Now that Ukraine has Kherson, do they have control of the water to Crimea? If so, then why don't they retalliate by turning the water off for Crimea for as long as the power and water is down in other Ukrainian cities due to Russia's missile strikes?

 

[LittleG]

Now that Ukraine has Kherson, do they have control of the water to Crimea? If so, then why don't they retalliate by turning the water off for Crimea for as long as the power and water is down in other Ukrainian cities due to Russia's missile strikes?

I expect that area has been heavily mined, booby trapped and potentially has remote bombs ready to detonate.

 

[CD Xbow]

With both sides using much of the same gear, it's inevitable these events will occur:

Russia destroys its own air defense system with kamikaze drone

Russian troops reportedly have targeted and blown up its own S-300 air defense system in Ukraine's southern Kherson region. Russian state media released on 16 November a statement saying: Russian Lancet kamikaze drone hit a Ukrainian 5N63S engagement radar of the S-300PS surface-to-air missile...

defence-blog.com

 

[wannabejack]

Another supply line exhausted. Reports suggest Iran can only manufacture 20 of these a month too.

In contrast to Ukraine.

$400 Million in Additional Assistance for Ukraine

The Defense Department announced the authorization of a Presidential Drawdown of security assistance valued at up to $400 million to meet Ukraine's critical security and defense needs.

www.defense.gov

 

[Saint]

Twiggy's already committed $750 million of his own money as an investment to rebuild, there'll be plenty of others from the private sector alone sensing opportunity there also.

THe thing about this is that it will solidify the West as the patron of Ukraine. Everything will be rebuilt to EU standards so that even if a Russian puppet came along in the future and won an election, they couldn't buy Russian military or infrastructure hardware because none of it will fit anything.

Just like how the Marshall Plan helped Europe but also solidified ties to the USA, the investment in Ukraine will do the same for ties back to the EU and Western nations.

Ukraine's next Air Force, army and Navy will be built in Europe and Nth America, not in Russia. That's a huge client state to lose especially as all the Stans turn to China.

 

[Jbudds]

THe thing about this is that it will solidify the West as the patron of Ukraine. Everything will be rebuilt to EU standards so that even if a Russian puppet came along in the future and won an election, they couldn't buy Russian military or infrastructure hardware because none of it will fit anything.

Just like how the Marshall Plan helped Europe but also solidified ties to the USA, the investment in Ukraine will do the same for ties back to the EU and Western nations.

Ukraine's next Air Force, army and Navy will be built in Europe and Nth America, not in Russia. That's a huge client state to lose especially as all the Stans turn to China.

And then there will be a bright democratic country along side a dark communist federation.

 

[wannabejack]

THe thing about this is that it will solidify the West as the patron of Ukraine. Everything will be rebuilt to EU standards so that even if a Russian puppet came along in the future and won an election, they couldn't buy Russian military or infrastructure hardware because none of it will fit anything.

Just like how the Marshall Plan helped Europe but also solidified ties to the USA, the investment in Ukraine will do the same for ties back to the EU and Western nations.

Ukraine's next Air Force, army and Navy will be built in Europe and Nth America, not in Russia. That's a huge client state to lose especially as all the Stans turn to China.

‘We’re Working 24/7’: Ukraine Keeps Its War Machine Humming

Russian strikes have taken a toll on Ukraine’s defense industry, but offshoring and the cottage industry are keeping the shells coming.

foreignpolicy.com

But as Kyiv is increasingly given NATO-level weapons—more than $15 billion worth from the United States alone since February (nearly three times last year’s defense budget)—Ukraine is looking to build facilities to service those weapons and increasingly becoming a part of the Western military supply chain.

But he emphasized that the long game for Ukraine is to receive foreign technology transfers, such as from the United States, and to create joint ventures with global defense companies to produce more efficient weapons.

 

[Andre]

The Allies used strategic bombing to good effect during World War 2, but this would have had no no lasting effect without military operations such as Operation Overlord (invasion of France) or Operation Bagration (destruction of German Army Group Centre in Russia) both in June 1944,
The Russians have no current ability to launch such operations such as these in 2022/23. They are doomed to fail.

There's also that Germany was almost completely doing their own equipment, so taking out all those factories out or even the towns the workers working there were based, was going to have a military impact. Ukraine is getting most of their equipment from elsewhere and the front line troops are largely not affected by infrastructure damage. There's no rationale beyond terrorising the Ukrainians into surrendering.

If anything it's counterproductive. Much as The Blitz rallied the British behind Churchill and the war, these only drive wavering Ukrainians and international donors to stay the course. If the Russians kept it to targeting military targets you'd get some countries (Germany, France for two) who'd be saying it's at a point the Ukrainians should negotiate with the Russians. When you get a newborn child killed, due to a strike on a Maternity hospital, no leader in Europe is going to dare say Russia can be trusted in any negotiations.

Of course the Russians, with limited missiles and drones left and losing on the battlefield, diverting those resources to ineffective strategic targets, rather than the Donbas, where it's close enough in some areas, that those could tip it in their favour, show once again that they aren't contend to fail just on just one of the strategic, operational or tactical levels, but are experts at the trifecta of all at once.

 

[footyfan1978]

Just keep an eye out for any news including a town called Tokmak! Heard a few vague hints about a UKR push there, though nothing confirmed yet. If true, it could mean an attempt to drive a wedge between south-western occupation and eastern. I can't find more than original mentions, and those were at least a day old.

Good work. When finished work will have a gander on the net and see what happening.

Just finished work and quick search of any info on this town/city...



Canadian Underground News Room
https://twitter.com/Assholio9
@Assholio9
The #AFU is advancing in the #Zaporizhzhya direction #Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov reports six explosions in the temporarily occupied town of #Tokmak, #ZaporizhzhiaRegion: "We are clarifying information regarding strikes on enemy positions," Fedorov added. #



3:20 AM · Nov 23, 2022·Twitter for Android

 

[footyfan1978]

Think this probably our time last night.
@PStyleOne1@mastodon.online

@PStyle0ne1
·
Nov 23

6 strong explosions have been heard next to Tokmak Zp. this evening. Tokmak is a logistical hub for the #RussianArmy #Ukraine


















https://twitter.com/Tendar

 

[Better Loosen Up]

We can probably leave the debate over Afghanistan for another time and place.

On "winning" and losing" it all depends on what you define as the goals of either side.

For Ukraine now, their goal has to be survival. Their country is being destroyed as we speak. Even if the Russians left tomorrow and stop shooting, it will take years and years to rebuild Ukraine's capacity, not to mention the horrific casualties they're taking on the battlefield.

For Russia, they almost certainly won't get their tanks rolling through Kiev.

But they are breaking Ukraine as a viable country and society. That's still a major win if your goal is to prove you're a superpower who's geopolitical sphere shouldn't be messed with.

You have got to be kidding. Superpower? The war has lowered their colours to the point of utter embarrassment.

No one will take them seriously after this war. Aside from their nukes, the west now knows they are pathetically weak compared to how they have portrayed themselves.

 

[Harro59]

If the Russians keep hitting it like today, it won't. Like, I'm not sure why this is a difficult to grasp, if you keep bombing infrastructure you break it, especially something quite complex and difficult to manage at the best of times like an electricity grid.

Australia's has issues on hot days ffs.

Ukraine tells allies it may not be able to recover from more Russian attacks on energy systems

Ukrainian officials are asking the U.S. and Europe for parts to fix its electric grid and gas systems.

www.politico.com

Yeah blow up substation and transformers along with generators will just end the grid.

I said it previously the main Ace for Putin was energy and I guess I didn't look at it for Ukraine as well, just Europe.

Problem is, if Russia just levels Ukraine and destroys it's infrastructure then it will be useless to them.

 

[LeakyValve]

Deft touch on Australia.

 

[footyfan1978]

Mikkel Henriksen
@GersagerH
·5h

This another failed missile launch from Belgorod?



News of Ukraine
@uasupport999

Nov 16
In Russian Shebekino in the Belgorod region, local authorities report shelling and 2 dead. #RussiaUkraineWar #Russia

 

[Nuggs Bunny]

THe thing about this is that it will solidify the West as the patron of Ukraine. Everything will be rebuilt to EU standards so that even if a Russian puppet came along in the future and won an election, they couldn't buy Russian military or infrastructure hardware because none of it will fit anything.

Just like how the Marshall Plan helped Europe but also solidified ties to the USA, the investment in Ukraine will do the same for ties back to the EU and Western nations.

Ukraine's next Air Force, army and Navy will be built in Europe and Nth America, not in Russia. That's a huge client state to lose especially as all the Stans turn to China.

I imagine most of the export markets for military hardware will start to dry up as well. Losing export markets means less revenue, meaning less money that can be invested into the next capability, making it less desirable, meaning fewer export markets... the spiral continues. Russian arms exports were already in decline as China and Europe have begun to muscle in on the previous Russo-American duopoly in the post cold war era but now there will be legitimate questions over whether Russia can fulfil contracts to supply with sanctions still in place.

 

[Hornberger]

Now that Ukraine has Kherson, do they have control of the water to Crimea? If so, then why don't they retalliate by turning the water off for Crimea for as long as the power and water is down in other Ukrainian cities due to Russia's missile strikes?

To control the water to Crimea you need to control the left bank of the Dnipro. The recapture of the Kherson city only gives the Ukraine control of the right bank of the Dnipro. The left bank remains in Russian control.

 

[The Warlord]

What, if anything, about the Russian offensive has made you even remotely confident of them having a snowball's chance of winning this conflict?

That they can and have done this to Ukraine and can keep it way indefinitely.

 

[footyfan1978]

Did not find any clear news update on Tomak and I doubt press people will be able to close so will have to be via locals in next day or so.
I'm off to check this out of some Pom that was in occupied Kherson for some period of time.

 

[The Warlord]

Wow!

A pro-Russian poster in this thread. “Ukraine with the last throw of the dice”…. gave it away.

I won’t respond to you.

I'm not pro-Russian, Putin is a gangster scumbag who had one of my heroes murdered.

 

[bzparkes]

That they can and have done this to Ukraine and can keep it way indefinitely.

'Russian Telegram".

LMAO.

 

[The Warlord]

I actually disagree. I think there will be a massive capital inflow to rebuild.

To rebuild, yes, definitely.

To keep the war going? No, far less likely.

And the crucial question is where the capital inflow comes from and where it is spent ... is it Beijing, Brussels or Washington?

 

[The Warlord]

Another supply line exhausted. Reports suggest Iran can only manufacture 20 of these a month too.

The Russians have been running out of missiles for months now, yet every week they unleash a bigger barrage than the last.

British intelligence might not be on the level you know, they might even be ... lying.

 

[The Warlord]

You have got to be kidding. Superpower? The war has lowered their colours to the point of utter embarrassment.

No one will take them seriously after this war. Aside from their nukes, the west now knows they are pathetically weak compared to how they have portrayed themselves.

Unlike that composed and orderly retreat from Afghanistan we saw last year?

As I posted a few pages up, the reality is the West would never dare to fight a state as well armed and supported as Ukraine.

We push around broke places that can't defend themselves like Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan ... and still lose.

 

[Andre]

You have got to be kidding. Superpower? The war has lowered their colours to the point of utter embarrassment.

No one will take them seriously after this war. Aside from their nukes, the west now knows they are pathetically weak compared to how they have portrayed themselves.

They've progressed from 'Our alternate system of government (communism) will take over the world' through 'Well we still have the second best military, even though economically not a top tier country, so pay attention to us' to a Slavic version of North Korea. A country no one would be concerned about if they didn't have nukes, so the leader threatens to use them regularly.