Europe War in Ukraine - Thread 4 - thread rules updated

[Gethelred]

Hey all,

Seeing as multiple people seem to have forgotten, abuse is against the rules of BF. Continuous, page long attacks directed at a single poster in this thread will result in threadbans for a week from this point; doing so again once you have returned will make the bans permanent and will be escalated to infractions.

This thread still has misinformation rules, and occasionally you will be asked to demonstrate a claim you have made by moderation. If you cannot, you will be offered the opportunity to amend the post to reflect that it's opinion, to remove the post, or you will be threadbanned and infracted for sharing misinformation.

Addendum: from this point, use of any variant of the word 'orc' to describe combatants, politicians or russians in general will be deleted and the poster will receive a warning. If the behaviour continues, it will be escalated. Consider this fair warning.

Finally: If I see the word Nazi or Hitler being flung around, there had better have a good faith basis as to how it's applicable to the Russian invasion - as in, video/photographic evidence of POW camps designed to remove another ethnic group - or to the current Ukrainian army. If this does not occur, you will be threadbanned for posting off topic

This is a sensitive area, and I understand that this makes for fairly incensed conversation sometimes. This does not mean the rules do not apply, whether to a poster positing a Pro-Ukraine stance or a poster positing an alternative view.

Behave, people.

 

[barreness]

At the same time the Russian Red Army was fighting a war with the Poles who in turn destroyed them.

Seems to be a pattern with Russia wanting to be in constant wars throughout history.

Welcome to regional powers and geopolitics I guess. US has been at peace for a handful of years in it's existence

 

[Visions]

I reckon defoes false flag.

I don't think its a false flag as such, more an unintentional consequence of glide bombs that are failing for whatever reason.

This guy seems to think its happening quite frequently.

 

[Zidane98]

And NATO hasn't committed troops, you want to test that?

Fallout from a tactical nuke airburst is negligible, a lot less that Chernobyl for instance

They were soviet nukes and Ukraine as a republic didn't have the launch codes. The deal to return the nukes to Russia was done by all sides including UK/France, no one wanted a collapsed Ukraine controlled by who knows with the ability of at least dirty bombs

It was presumed that Ukraine would remain in the Russian sphere of influence, this changed in 2004 and has developed ever since

The deal also included cruise missiles & advanced military hardware like Blackjack bombers tovarisch.

Basically without the Budapest agreement Russia would not have been able to launch an invasion of Ukraine. Hence why Russia has pretty much zero credibility on any international agreement let alone a peace agreement.

It was presumed that Russia wouldn't become a rampaging fascist state trying to recreate the Russian empire / USSR 2.0. This all changed in Chechnya and has developed since.

 

[jatz14]

Why would it be more damaging than now?

Oh wise mighty one with the inside goss

The peace talks in mid 2022 were reasonable, NATO reps flew in and said nah don't take it, we'll arm you to the teeth

That's going well

So grind away, fair enough

How does it get worse?

Hand to hand fighting through Kiev.

After Putin rebuilds his army around the goal of actually being able to drive to Kiev to kill Ukrainian leadership.

Confidant in the knowledge that if your response to the first war was, Ukraine should accept realities and negotiate for peace, then that will be your response to the second.

I think he would like to negotiate a glorious peace, while his armies are smashing the **** out of Kiev.

Real peacenik is Vlad.

If that scenario is remotely possible, Ukraine would be crazy to negotiate. After all, Belarus is still a stone's throw away, and still has the Russian army there.

Let's pretend your Putin, and I am Zelensky, and I tell you I am not negotiating peace, because I think you will use it as a prelude to a bigger attack later.

Offer me some terms to make me change my mind. Give me something that makes me have hope that negotiating peace with you now, doesn't lead to something worse later.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[wannabejack]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ukraine-says-it-thwarted-russian-bomb-attacks-kyiv-may-9-2024-05-13/

War crimes.
Some examples of prohibited acts include: murder; mutilation, cruel treatment and torture; taking of hostages; intentionally directing attacks against the civilian population .....

But hey, let's negotiate with a country that thinks nothing of committing war crimes.
After all, russia is just protecting russian speakers by killing civilians (some may even speak russian) in a prominent hypermarket chain and close to a café in Kyiv.

 

[wannabejack]

Estonian government 'seriously' discusses sending troops to Ukraine for non-combat tasks - Euromaidan Press

Estonia's national security advisor, Madis Roll, revealed that the government is engaged in "serious" discussions about deploying troops to western Ukraine for non-combat duties.

euromaidanpress.com

Roll’s comments follow remarks from Estonia’s defense forces chief, Gen. Martin Herem, who revealed earlier discussions within the military about deploying troops for support roles like medical services, logistics, and air defense in western Ukrainian cities. However, Herem noted that the idea became polarized when it was made public.

According to Breaking Defense, Western leaders fear the conflict could escalate into a Russia-NATO war, potentially involving nuclear weapons. However, the sentiment in Finland and Estonia is that failing to help Ukraine win now could lead to “the reconstitution of the former Soviet Union” under Russian President Vladimir Putin.

 

[wannabejack]

‘The goal is not peace’: What’s behind Putin’s wartime Russia reshuffle?

President’s surprise reshuffle to see deputy prime minister and economist Andrei Belousov seize defence minister’s role.

www.aljazeera.com

Observers said the reshuffle is a signal that Russia has no plans to end its war on Ukraine, now in its third year.

“This indicates that the Kremlin is not seeking an exit from Ukraine, but once [wants?] to extend their ability to endure the conflict as long as possible,” said Jeff Hawn, a doctoral candidate and guest teacher at the London School of Economics’s international history department. “Russia is very limited [on] how much they can increase scale, due to economic deficiencies. However, they can maintain a certain level of attritional warfare. And are likely hoping to do that longer than Ukraine can.”

 

[Aussie in exile]

The soviet invasions? I mean I guess there might have been some internal rule. My point is that legality means nothing when a state invades another

So woildn't have a problem if China invaded Russia to help itself to Russian oil and gas?

 

[Cap]

Extra $100m from Australia to Ukraine.

The government will provide an additional $100 million in assistance to Ukraine, including $50 million for "short range air defence systems".

$30 million will go towards aerial drone systems and $15 million towards equipment such as combat helmets, inflatable boats, boots, fire masks and generators.

It tips to the total support to Ukraine since Russia's invasion over the $1 billion mark.

 

[RonSon]

Marles visits Kyiv to unveil $100m in support for Ukraine’s war against Russia

Defence Minister Richard Marles visits Ukraine, revealing Australia will provide the besieged country with another support package to aid its defence against Russia.

www.abc.net.au

Think that is just a re-announcement of support from late April.

 

[jatz14]

So woildn't have a problem if China invaded Russia to help itself to Russian oil and gas?

What isn't being talked about is, China is as keen, if not more keen, to get Manchuria back from Russia, than it is to get Taiwan.

Taiwan was never an integral part of China, but Manchuria was.

And Russia just took it, with no real justification other than, we want it, China is in no position to stop us.



On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

 

[barreness]

The deal also included cruise missiles & advanced military hardware like Blackjack bombers tovarisch.

Created from the soviet MIC

Basically without the Budapest agreement Russia would not have been able to launch an invasion of Ukraine. Hence why Russia has pretty much zero credibility on any international agreement let alone a peace agreement.

It was 30 years ago. Have they used the bombers or 30yo cruise missiles? They could never have fired the nukes = not a deterrence

It was presumed that Russia wouldn't become a rampaging fascist state trying to recreate the Russian empire / USSR 2.0. This all changed in Chechnya and has developed since.

Yes very true. It would have been better they remained socialist and weren't dissolved illegally

 

[barreness]

How does it get worse?

Hand to hand fighting through Kiev.

After Putin rebuilds his army around the goal of actually being able to drive to Kiev to kill Ukrainian leadership.

Confidant in the knowledge that if your response to the first war was, Ukraine should accept realities and negotiate for peace, then that will be your response to the second.

I think he would like to negotiate a glorious peace, while his armies are smashing the heck out of Kiev.

Real peacenik is Vlad.

If that scenario is remotely possible, Ukraine would be crazy to negotiate. After all, Belarus is still a stone's throw away, and still has the Russian army there.

Let's pretend your Putin, and I am Zelensky, and I tell you I am not negotiating peace, because I think you will use it as a prelude to a bigger attack later.

Offer me some terms to make me change my mind. Give me something that makes me have hope that negotiating peace with you now, doesn't lead to something worse later.

On SM-A346E using BigFooty.com mobile app

This was literally done through the minsk agreement. Ukraine committed massively to their armed forces during the ceasefire and it paid off, they easily defeated the decapitation attack and have manfully held the line for 2+ years

I'd suggest Ukraine would do exactly the same as Russia, sign the peace deal that apparently demilitarises you and then completely ignore it and massively pump the defensive line while trying to buy as much NATO miltech as possible in secret

The dnipro is obviously the line for south eastern Ukraine, how you negotiate the north east I'm not really sure but Russia hasn't seemed too interested in that area so far

 

[barreness]

So woildn't have a problem if China invaded Russia to help itself to Russian oil and gas?

Idk what you're trying to say?

My point was that the legality of invasions has never mattered at any point in history. You raised what I think was the USSR's response to colour revolutions?(Afghanistan could be multiple tbf)

If China rolled through Siberia I also don't think legality would matter much

 

[barreness]

‘The goal is not peace’: What’s behind Putin’s wartime Russia reshuffle?

President’s surprise reshuffle to see deputy prime minister and economist Andrei Belousov seize defence minister’s role.

www.aljazeera.com

Observers said the reshuffle is a signal that Russia has no plans to end its war on Ukraine, now in its third year.

“This indicates that the Kremlin is not seeking an exit from Ukraine, but once [wants?] to extend their ability to endure the conflict as long as possible,” said Jeff Hawn, a doctoral candidate and guest teacher at the London School of Economics’s international history department. “Russia is very limited [on] how much they can increase scale, due to economic deficiencies. However, they can maintain a certain level of attritional warfare. And are likely hoping to do that longer than Ukraine can.”

lol

 

[jatz14]

This was literally done through the minsk agreement. Ukraine committed massively to their armed forces during the ceasefire and it paid off, they easily defeated the decapitation attack and have manfully held the line for 2+ years

I'd suggest Ukraine would do exactly the same as Russia, sign the peace deal that apparently demilitarises you and then completely ignore it and massively pump the defensive line while trying to buy as much NATO miltech as possible in secret

The dnipro is obviously the line for south eastern Ukraine, how you negotiate the north east I'm not really sure but Russia hasn't seemed too interested in that area so far

Hi Vlad.

I am not interested in whether I can build a military capable of stopping you if you attack.

I want a guarantee you will not attack. Something beyond a a Minsk style agreement we just ignore.

 

[wannabejack]

lol

MARCH 23, 2022

Russia will never want peace

Putin has mastered the art of negotiating in bad faith

unherd.com

Almost two weeks ago, I wrote that “of all the conflicts I have engaged with or covered in my life, Ukraine is where I most clearly see the unambiguous resurgence of violent, expansionist fascism. Ukrainians are fighting for us all, remember that.” If it was a touch grandiose, it was also, I think, accurate. I believe that what is being hammered out right now on the battlefields of Ukraine is not just its future and Russia’s, but the West’s, too. If the Ukrainians had folded after 72 hours or however long Putin’s lick-spittles told him the “special police operation” would take, then the Spetsnaz and gangs of Kadyrovite scumbags would be halfway to Georgia and Moldova by now. Half the east would now be gone and a new Iron Curtain, though perhaps this time a gold one embossed with the Versace logo, would be descending from Tbilisi to Minsk.

It was an unserious suggestion three days into a war the Kremlin thought would be a cakewalk. As things have gone badly for the Russians since, there have been further rounds of talks. The outlines are already clear: Zelenskyy has hinted he is ready to make compromises over the future of the Crimea and Donbas territories that Russia stole in 2014.

Also on the table is Ukrainian neutrality, which essentially means a commitment not to join Nato. This is also sensible because Nato membership was never realistic anyway. If it were, Kyiv wouldn’t be in the war it’s in now. All this, Zelenskyy has stressed, would have to be put to the Ukrainian people in a referendum.

Generally, it [russia]uses peace talks as an excuse to rearm, regroup and better its chances of more effectively murdering its enemies. I think it’s negotiating in bad faith once again. It can afford to have its conscripts chewed up in Ukraine. It’s not like their families can complain. Putin has turned Mariupol into Aleppo. Now he’s deporting thousands to Russia. From Syria to Siberia, from Assad to Stalin.

This is Putin’s Russia, and it is dragging us back to the darkest period in modern history. More war, not peace, will always be his aim.

 

[Visions]

http://[URL='https://www.aljazeera....-putins-wartime-russia-reshuffle[/URL[/COLOR]

]

Observers said the reshuffle is a signal that Russia has no plans to end its war on Ukraine, now in its third year.

“This indicates that the Kremlin is not seeking an exit from Ukraine, but once [wants?] to extend their ability to endure the conflict as long as possible,” said Jeff Hawn, a doctoral candidate and guest teacher at the London School of Economics’s international history department. “Russia is very limited [on] how much they can increase scale, due to economic deficiencies. However, they can maintain a certain level of attritional warfare. And are likely hoping to do that longer than Ukraine can.”

Yet the US and Europe will sit on their hands in a reactionary way, rather than being pro-active and allowing Ukraine to try and win the war.

Prime example, Russia was allowed to amass troops and equipment a few kilometres from the Russian border in preparation for the attack on Kharkiv, knowing full well that Ukraine wasn't allowed to touch them with foreign weapons as the Biden administration wont allow it. Ukraine could have taken out a large amount of troops and equipment before they had even attempted anything.

 

[Cap]

Boom

 

[MrKK]

Yet the US and Europe will sit on their hands in a reactionary way, rather than being pro-active and allowing Ukraine to try and win the war.

Prime example, Russia was allowed to amass troops and equipment a few kilometres from the Russian border in preparation for the attack on Kharkiv, knowing full well that Ukraine wasn't allowed to touch them with foreign weapons as the Biden administration wont allow it. Ukraine could have taken out a large amount of troops and equipment before they had even attempted anything.

What's the upside for the US and Europe in Ukraine winning the war quickly? And versus the risks that come with providing the means to do so e.g. troops on the ground?

 

[barreness]

Hi Vlad.

I am not interested in whether I can build a military capable of stopping you if you attack.

I want a guarantee you will not attack. Something beyond a a Minsk style agreement we just ignore.

lol, you realise there are no guarantees in geopolitics? did you miss history class?

Even article 5 in nato isn't worth the paper. They could raise a few complaints in the UN, slap a sanction on and call it done. I don't think the US will do this in the event of an attack on the Baltics say, but the idea of guarantees is farcical

 

[barreness]

The date is the key thing here, there were serious negotiations for the next year or so
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2...hy-did-the-west-stop-a-peace-deal-in-ukraine/
“Russian and Ukrainian negotiators appeared to have tentatively agreed on the outlines of a negotiated interim settlement,” wrote Fiona Hill and Angela Stent. “Russia would withdraw to its position on February 23, when it controlled part of the Donbas region and all of Crimea, and in exchange, Ukraine would promise not to seek NATO membership and instead receive security guarantees from a number of countries.”

The news highlights the impact of former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s efforts to stop negotiations, as journalist Branko Marcetic noted on Twitter. The decision to scuttle the deal coincided with Johnson’s April visit to Kyiv, during which he reportedly urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to break off talks with Russia for two key reasons: Putin cannot be negotiated with, and the West isn’t ready for the war to end.

MARCH 23, 2022

Russia will never want peace

Putin has mastered the art of negotiating in bad faith

unherd.com

Almost two weeks ago, I wrote that “of all the conflicts I have engaged with or covered in my life, Ukraine is where I most clearly see the unambiguous resurgence of violent, expansionist fascism. Ukrainians are fighting for us all, remember that.” If it was a touch grandiose, it was also, I think, accurate. I believe that what is being hammered out right now on the battlefields of Ukraine is not just its future and Russia’s, but the West’s, too. If the Ukrainians had folded after 72 hours or however long Putin’s lick-spittles told him the “special police operation” would take, then the Spetsnaz and gangs of Kadyrovite scumbags would be halfway to Georgia and Moldova by now. Half the east would now be gone and a new Iron Curtain, though perhaps this time a gold one embossed with the Versace logo, would be descending from Tbilisi to Minsk.

It was an unserious suggestion three days into a war the Kremlin thought would be a cakewalk. As things have gone badly for the Russians since, there have been further rounds of talks. The outlines are already clear: Zelenskyy has hinted he is ready to make compromises over the future of the Crimea and Donbas territories that Russia stole in 2014.

Also on the table is Ukrainian neutrality, which essentially means a commitment not to join Nato. This is also sensible because Nato membership was never realistic anyway. If it were, Kyiv wouldn’t be in the war it’s in now. All this, Zelenskyy has stressed, would have to be put to the Ukrainian people in a referendum.

Generally, it [russia]uses peace talks as an excuse to rearm, regroup and better its chances of more effectively murdering its enemies. I think it’s negotiating in bad faith once again. It can afford to have its conscripts chewed up in Ukraine. It’s not like their families can complain. Putin has turned Mariupol into Aleppo. Now he’s deporting thousands to Russia. From Syria to Siberia, from Assad to Stalin.

This is Putin’s Russia, and it is dragging us back to the darkest period in modern history. More war, not peace, will always be his aim.

Just glossing over the fact that Stalin defeated the darkest tyrant in modern history, for all his faults he led the USSR into the destruction of fascism(mostly, lets ignore franco and the greece regime being part of NATO)

 

[Aussie in exile]

The date is the key thing here, there were serious negotiations for the next year or so
https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2...hy-did-the-west-stop-a-peace-deal-in-ukraine/
“Russian and Ukrainian negotiators appeared to have tentatively agreed on the outlines of a negotiated interim settlement,” wrote Fiona Hill and Angela Stent. “Russia would withdraw to its position on February 23, when it controlled part of the Donbas region and all of Crimea, and in exchange, Ukraine would promise not to seek NATO membership and instead receive security guarantees from a number of countries.”

The news highlights the impact of former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s efforts to stop negotiations, as journalist Branko Marcetic noted on Twitter. The decision to scuttle the deal coincided with Johnson’s April visit to Kyiv, during which he reportedly urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to break off talks with Russia for two key reasons: Putin cannot be negotiated with, and the West isn’t ready for the war to end.


Just glossing over the fact that Stalin defeated the darkest tyrant in modern history, for all his faults he led the USSR into the destruction of fascism(mostly, lets ignore franco and the greece regime being part of NATO)

Stalin and Hitler were pals at the begining of the 2nd world war and wanted to carve up Poland

 

[barreness]

Stalin and Hitler were pals at the begining of the 2nd world war and wanted to carve up Poland

No they weren't, this is pure cold war propaganda. The communists were the first people Hitler hunted

Were France best buds with the nazi's when they signed a non aggression pact? or the half dozen other neighbouring countries?

The sphere of influence stuff isn't as bad as people say, consider the Russian empire pre WW1. Do you think the freak out against the Solomon islands accepting Chinese money is lunacy? They are in our sphere of influence

People under soviet occupied Poland were a lot better off than people under nazi rule, note the lack of death camps. It obviously only lasted a year ish before the inevitable attack on communism

Was Chamberlain best buds or was he buying time?

 

[barreness]

Blinken murdering a protest song in a Ukrainian pub, very serious state craft