Player Watch Welcome to Hawthorn : Jai “Duke” Newcombe - 2024 Peter Crimmins medalist

[Strapping Young Lad]

 

[H00t]

Solid argument to be made he already is elevating them. Second amongst mids for % of team score involvements, equal 3rd for total goals (or 7th however you want to count it, 3 people are on 9 goals, 3 people on 7 and Duke has 6).

Personally I'd love to see Newc get the benefit of the doubt like higher draft picks do. Being a mid season draftee I feel that people are more inclined to keep a lid on it, where Day being a previous first rounder is rightly getting heavy praise for his performances. * the lids, this bloke is a jet. We don't have much to celebrate this year so why not celebrate a kid who looks to be on the same trajectory as some absolute stars of the game?

His stats look pretty similar to last year. Probably the biggest difference for mine from this year to last is he looks a lot more composed with ball in hand this year trying to take the right option. Which has lead to the small increase in score involvements.

I do like his ability to work hard in games right to the end. He finds more space as the game goes on.

He’s also cleaned up his ground ball work. He was a little fumbly last year but not so this year.

There’s only one way to change perceptions and that’s performances. He keeps putting up games like he has been and the more and more people will get behind him. It’s not like he’s not already loved by supporters.

 

[Mitchell Madness]

His stats look pretty similar to last year. Probably the biggest difference for mine from this year to last is he looks a lot more composed with ball in hand this year trying to take the right option. Which has lead to the small increase in score involvements.

I do like his ability to work hard in games right to the end. He finds more space as the game goes on.

He’s also cleaned up his ground ball work. He was a little fumbly last year but not so this year.

There’s only one way to change perceptions and that’s performances. He keeps putting up games like he has been and the more and more people will get behind him. It’s not like he’s not already loved by susupporters.

Without the high draft pick tag, it will be years (if ever) before he's recognised

 

[SSSSSS]

His stats look pretty similar to last year. Probably the biggest difference for mine from this year to last is he looks a lot more composed with ball in hand this year trying to take the right option. Which has lead to the small increase in score involvements.

I do like his ability to work hard in games right to the end. He finds more space as the game goes on.

He’s also cleaned up his ground ball work. He was a little fumbly last year but not so this year.

There’s only one way to change perceptions and that’s performances. He keeps putting up games like he has been and the more and more people will get behind him. It’s not like he’s not already loved by supporters.

Biggest improvement with Newk this year is his disposal efficiency (don't quote me on the stats but I think he was hovering around 65-67% last year and is now around 75%). Slightly less metres gained (roughly 400+ to 300+) but I think he isn't just pumping it on the boot as much as he did last year. Lowering his eyes and picking targets with hand and foot.

Also he is starting to use his strength and power to buy himself space to use the football more cleanly. Adding goal kicking to his repertoire as well.

Petracca and Dusty are special talents that come around every so often and I'm not sure Newk will get to those heights but even if he is at 70-80% of their level we have a hell of a footballer.

The next big evolution or Jai is finding ways to stay involved when he isn't in the middle. We've worked him in at the HFF at times and he has his moments but they are few and far between. If he can start finding the ball while resting forward in dangerous positions that is when he will start to hit the Dusty/Petracca/JDG level.

 

[H00t]

Biggest improvement with Newk this year is his disposal efficiency (don't quote me on the stats but I think he was hovering around 65-67% last year and is now around 75%). Slightly less metres gained (roughly 400+ to 300+) but I think he isn't just pumping it on the boot as much as he did last year. Lowering his eyes and picking targets with hand and foot.

Also he is starting to use his strength and power to buy himself space to use the football more cleanly. Adding goal kicking to his repertoire as well.

Petracca and Dusty are special talents that come around every so often and I'm not sure Newk will get to those heights but even if he is at 70-80% of their level we have a hell of a footballer.

The next big evolution or Jai is finding ways to stay involved when he isn't in the middle. We've worked him in at the HFF at times and he has his moments but they are few and far between. If he can start finding the ball while resting forward in dangerous positions that is when he will start to hit the Dusty/Petracca/JDG level.

His disposal efficiency is definitely way up and turnovers are way down. He’s gone from 4.6 last year to 3.4 this year.

I do agree his goal kicking is great. But do agree he needs to find more ways to get involved when forward. Most of goals seem to be from floating forward as a mid rather than starting forward.

Honestly I feel he will take a big step forward when doesn’t drift out of quarters as a mid. He has some big quarters but can also spend most of the game in the middle and not get an heap of the ball with low contested possessions.

I will say he will be a great player for us no matter what. I might seem a little harsh on him but I’m just hoping he takes his game to the next level and ends up in the top 20 players in the comp.

 

[KermitJagger]

His stats look pretty similar to last year. Probably the biggest difference for mine from this year to last is he looks a lot more composed with ball in hand this year trying to take the right option. Which has lead to the small increase in score involvements.

I do like his ability to work hard in games right to the end. He finds more space as the game goes on.

He’s also cleaned up his ground ball work. He was a little fumbly last year but not so this year.

There’s only one way to change perceptions and that’s performances. He keeps putting up games like he has been and the more and more people will get behind him. It’s not like he’s not already loved by supporters.

The reason I'm trying to get people psyched is that his stats are better than last year despite us as a whole being worse than last year.

It's not a small increase in score involvements relative to the team, he's gone from being involved in 25% of our scores to being involved in 34%. He's up almost 1 centre clearance and 2 total clearances a game, his contested possession rate is up 6%, his disposal efficiency is up 8%, average goals are up, turnovers down by over 1 a game, clangers down by over 1.

He's becoming a more refined and more improved version of the player that he was last year, which is why his player rating has skyrocketed despite his basic stats being relatively similar to last year's.

 

[H00t]

The reason I'm trying to get people psyched is that his stats are better than last year despite us as a whole being worse than last year.

It's not a small increase in score involvements relative to the team, he's gone from being involved in 25% of our scores to being involved in 34%. He's up almost 1 centre clearance and 2 total clearances a game, his contested possession rate is up 6%, his disposal efficiency is up 8%, average goals are up, turnovers down by over 1 a game, clangers down by over 1.

He's becoming a more refined and more improved version of the player that he was last year, which is why his player rating has skyrocketed despite his basic stats being relatively similar to last year's.

He’s refining his game a lot. Probably the biggest change for mine is that he’s becoming a lot more consistent. He’s having less of those lower games. While his top games have been around the same level from last year.

He’s certainly getting the best out of himself for his current level. And will leave absolutely no stone unturned to become as good as he can be. We can see that in his better ball use.

Just a question of how good his peak is and will he break into the top 20 players or higher and really stamp his name on this competition

 

[Titch3Votes0MooreAA]

Jai is a unique player.

On BigFooty, I've read comparisons ranging from Petracca to Ricciuto and to Lethal Leigh himself. But, in my opinion, he really is a unique player that we are so fortunate to have picked up.

He has raw power, which matches perfectly with his body. He can then use his bigger frame and stature to his advantage and break out of contests, as well as make tackles that stick. Combine this all with his determination and hunger for the football, and we've got a special player.

His clearance work is also coming along nicely (probably one of his more underrated assets), as he now sits 25th in the AFL for clearances (average of 5.33), and he has been a lot more consistent this year, as H00t said above me.

If he can become more of a goalkicker (like we have seen at times in his short career thus far), then he will be one of the most valuable players in the league. And I would say one of the best, but he's already on his way there. Let's hope he can keep this form up.

 

[SSSSSS]

Pretty amazing that our midfield is matching it with the best in terms of centre clearances when you consider that Day is our only 1st rounder (not even top 10!).

An international free hit rookie in Nash and MSD pick in Newcombe + a pick in the 40s in Worpel and a Preseason pick in Reeves.

 

[toomanysquibs]

He's becoming a more refined and more improved version of the player that he was last year, which is why his player rating has skyrocketed despite his basic stats being relatively similar to last year's.

This is the standout for mine. He's consistently elevated himself with what would be giant steps for anyone else - country footy, VFL, AFL. Did it all inside the space of 12 months.

Each time the bar has been raised, he's stepped up almost immediately. I'm not counting him out as being better than the two other guys we're talking about, seems about as plausible as the rest of his story so far.

He's not even two years into the AFL system and we're comparing him to the two recent standout mid/forwards of the past 5 years or so.

 

[CHUBBSS]

This is the standout for mine. He's consistently elevated himself with what would be giant steps for anyone else - country footy, VFL, AFL. Did it all inside the space of 12 months.

Each time the bar has been raised, he's stepped up almost immediately. I'm not counting him out as being better than the two other guys we're talking about, seems about as plausible as the rest of his story so far.

He's not even two years into the AFL system and we're comparing him to the two recent standout mid/forwards of the past 5 years or so.

It’s an interesting one to ponder because where his ceiling is nobody really knows, either top handful of players in the league or generational talent that never even misses a step.

His conditioning for a player that has been in the system for as short a time as jai is elite, shows how hard he works off the field. He would be a dream for Sam to coach

 

[SSSSSS]

It’s an interesting one to ponder because where his ceiling is nobody really knows, either top handful of players in the league or generational talent that never even misses a step.

His conditioning for a player that has been in the system for as short a time as jai is elite, shows how hard he works off the field. He would be a dream for Sam to coach

From what Sam has mentioned he doesn't have to coach Newcombe much at all.

The kid has so much internal drive and motivation to do all the things required for him to make it to the top.

Champion mentality.

 

[Brishawk]

A few years ago he struggled to get a game for Gippsland power. To call his rise ‘meteoric’ is underselling it for mine! Sky is the limit!

 

[Denver Day Lewis]

An international free hit rookie in Nash and MSD pick in Newcombe + a pick in the 40s in Worpel and a Preseason pick in Reeves.

We've rorted the system, no doubt.

But seriously though, it's a wonderful story. And none of it down to luck. It's all hard work, determination and smarts that got him here.

It defies all the contrived machinations the AFL have put in place in the name of equalisation, and it's not properly recognised outside the footy club and its fans because the media are not just sycophantic, they often lack basic football knowledge. It's not a sport, remember, it's entertainment, it's spectacle designed for TV ratings, run by overpaid private schoolboy dipschitz.

Jai just goes about quietly reminding us all what is great about footy.

 

[The hands of stone]

Rated in the top 6 players in the comp by champion date over the past month

Decent pump up on SEN just then too

 

[tl92]

Worth noting for those comparing his stats to last year, in the earlier rounds of this year he was playing up forward. His averages over the last few weeks would be well up I’d imagine.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Worth noting for those comparing his stats to last year, in the earlier rounds of this year he was playing up forward. His averages over the last few weeks would be well up I’d imagine.

Just out of interest, here are the CBA' for Newcombe so far this season:

R1 - 22 of 31 (71%)
R2 - 17 of 24 (71%)
R3 - 12 of 23 (52%)
R4 - 14 of 28 (50%)
R5 - 22 of 25 (88%)
R6 - 23 of 26 (88%)
R7 - 16 of 27 (59%)
R8 - 21 of 29 (74%)
R9 - 15 of 24 (63%)

 

[The Spirit of Cricket]

was listening to SEN in the car and Kingy was giving glowing praise to the Port midfielders. He said that Butters was the highest-rated midfielder in the comp over the past 4 *weeks, and that Rozee was either at or just after the top 5. He then listed the top 5 – Newcombe was 3rd or 4th, after only Oliver and Butters.

But it's not the ratings that impressed me, it's the way King said that Rozee is behind some extremely elite company. He didn't even stumble over reading out Newk as a top 5 mid. Everyone is starting to notice that this guy isn't just a good player we picked up off the scrapheap, he's a genuine A-grade midfielder

 

[KermitJagger]

was listening to SEN in the car and Kingy was giving glowing praise to the Port midfielders. He said that Butters was the highest-rated midfielder in the comp over the past 4 months, and that Rozee was either at or just after the top 5. He then listed the top 5 – Newcombe was 3rd or 4th, after only Oliver and Butters.

But it's not the ratings that impressed me, it's the way King said that Rozee is behind some extremely elite company. He didn't even stumble over reading out Newk as a top 5 mid. Everyone is starting to notice that this guy isn't just a good player we picked up off the scrapheap, he's a genuine A-grade midfielder

Here's the list of the top 10 rated mids to have played every game in the last 6 weeks.

Player	Draft Placement	Round 5	Round 6	Round 7	Round 8	Round 9	Round 10	Average
Zak Butters	12, 2018 Draft	25.1​	16.8​	14.9​	19.4​	22.1​	31.3​	21.60​
Marcus Bontempelli	3, 2013 Draft	25.6​	33.1​	14.7​	19.7​	14.2​	7​	19.05​
Jai Newcombe	2, 2021 MSD	22.6​	17.3​	24.3​	9.6​	21.3​	17​	18.68​
Clayton Oliver	4, 2015 Draft	20.1​	15.4​	15.1​	20.1​	19.8​	21.3​	18.63​
Christian Petracca	2, 2014 Draft	20.1​	13.9​	25.9​	17.1​	22​	9.1​	18.02​
Connor Rozee	5, 2018 Draft	13.2​	20.4​	15.4​	15.8​	17.8​	21.3​	17.32​
Adam Cerra	5, 2017 Draft	17.2​	23.1​	15.3​	22​	13.2​	8.1​	16.48​
Caleb Serong	8, 2019 Draft	23.4​	18.7​	15.4​	10.2​	14.1​	16.1​	16.32​
Conor Nash	Cat B Rookie	19​	17.9​	10.3​	16.2​	11​	21.8​	16.03​
Luke Parker	40, 2010 Draft	6.2​	11.5​	23.1​	12.3​	17.4​	22.7​	15.53​

Edit: Added another column for draft placement, just because it makes for a shocking contrast.

 

[Beandip]

Here's the list of the top 10 rated mids to have played every game in the last 6 weeks.

Player	Draft Placement	Rd 5	Rd 6	Rd 7	Rd 8	Rd 9	Rd 10	Average
Zak Butters	12, 2018 Draft	22.1​	19.4​	14.9​	16.8​	25.1​	31.3​	21.60​
Marcus Bontempelli	3, 2013 Draft	14.2​	19.7​	14.7​	33.1​	25.6​	7​	19.05​
Jai Newcombe	2, 2021 MSD	21.3​	9.6​	24.3​	17.3​	22.6​	17​	18.68​
Clayton Oliver	4, 2015 Draft	19.8​	20.1​	15.1​	15.4​	20.1​	21.3​	18.63​
Christian Petracca	2, 2014 Draft	22​	17.1​	25.9​	13.9​	20.1​	9.1​	18.02​
Connor Rozee	5, 2018 Draft	17.8​	15.8​	15.4​	20.4​	13.2​	21.3​	17.32​
Adam Cerra	5, 2017 Draft	13.2​	22​	15.3​	23.1​	17.2​	8.1​	16.48​
Caleb Serong	8, 2019 Draft	14.1​	10.2​	15.4​	18.7​	23.4​	16.1​	16.32​
Conor Nash	Cat B Rookie	11​	16.2​	10.3​	17.9​	19​	21.8​	16.03​
Luke Parker	40, 2010 Draft	17.4​	12.3​	23.1​	11.5​	6.2​	22.7​	15.53​

Edit: Added another column for draft placement, just because it makes for a shocking contrast.

That's insane - Hawthorn absolutely dominating talent identification and development...

 

[Sixpence]

Here's the list of the top 10 rated mids to have played every game in the last 6 weeks.

Player	Draft Placement	Rd 5	Rd 6	Rd 7	Rd 8	Rd 9	Rd 10	Average
Zak Butters	12, 2018 Draft	22.1​	19.4​	14.9​	16.8​	25.1​	31.3​	21.60​
Marcus Bontempelli	3, 2013 Draft	14.2​	19.7​	14.7​	33.1​	25.6​	7​	19.05​
Jai Newcombe	2, 2021 MSD	21.3​	9.6​	24.3​	17.3​	22.6​	17​	18.68​
Clayton Oliver	4, 2015 Draft	19.8​	20.1​	15.1​	15.4​	20.1​	21.3​	18.63​
Christian Petracca	2, 2014 Draft	22​	17.1​	25.9​	13.9​	20.1​	9.1​	18.02​
Connor Rozee	5, 2018 Draft	17.8​	15.8​	15.4​	20.4​	13.2​	21.3​	17.32​
Adam Cerra	5, 2017 Draft	13.2​	22​	15.3​	23.1​	17.2​	8.1​	16.48​
Caleb Serong	8, 2019 Draft	14.1​	10.2​	15.4​	18.7​	23.4​	16.1​	16.32​
Conor Nash	Cat B Rookie	11​	16.2​	10.3​	17.9​	19​	21.8​	16.03​
Luke Parker	40, 2010 Draft	17.4​	12.3​	23.1​	11.5​	6.2​	22.7​	15.53​

Edit: Added another column for draft placement, just because it makes for a shocking contrast.

How far off is Day?

 

[KermitJagger]

How far off is Day?

Not on the list, missed games.

 

[Blackhawk42]

Called it when I first watched him play for Box Hill.

Called it before round 1 of 2022.

Called it this season when I started him in my Supercoach side and barely anybody else did. 5 scores over 100 in his past 6 games.

Since my Jai predictions generally come true, how amazing is it knowing he'll win 3 Brownlows and play in 5 premierships?

 

[theiaofseed]

Here's the list of the top 10 rated mids to have played every game in the last 6 weeks.

Player	Draft Placement	Rd 5	Rd 6	Rd 7	Rd 8	Rd 9	Rd 10	Average
Zak Butters	12, 2018 Draft	22.1​	19.4​	14.9​	16.8​	25.1​	31.3​	21.60​
Marcus Bontempelli	3, 2013 Draft	14.2​	19.7​	14.7​	33.1​	25.6​	7​	19.05​
Jai Newcombe	2, 2021 MSD	21.3​	9.6​	24.3​	17.3​	22.6​	17​	18.68​
Clayton Oliver	4, 2015 Draft	19.8​	20.1​	15.1​	15.4​	20.1​	21.3​	18.63​
Christian Petracca	2, 2014 Draft	22​	17.1​	25.9​	13.9​	20.1​	9.1​	18.02​
Connor Rozee	5, 2018 Draft	17.8​	15.8​	15.4​	20.4​	13.2​	21.3​	17.32​
Adam Cerra	5, 2017 Draft	13.2​	22​	15.3​	23.1​	17.2​	8.1​	16.48​
Caleb Serong	8, 2019 Draft	14.1​	10.2​	15.4​	18.7​	23.4​	16.1​	16.32​
Conor Nash	Cat B Rookie	11​	16.2​	10.3​	17.9​	19​	21.8​	16.03​
Luke Parker	40, 2010 Draft	17.4​	12.3​	23.1​	11.5​	6.2​	22.7​	15.53​

Edit: Added another column for draft placement, just because it makes for a shocking contrast.

IOf it wasn't for round 6 Newcombe would be number one by a mile.

 

[Sixpence]

Here's the list of the top 10 rated mids to have played every game in the last 6 weeks.

Player	Draft Placement	Rd 5	Rd 6	Rd 7	Rd 8	Rd 9	Rd 10	Average
Zak Butters	12, 2018 Draft	22.1​	19.4​	14.9​	16.8​	25.1​	31.3​	21.60​
Marcus Bontempelli	3, 2013 Draft	14.2​	19.7​	14.7​	33.1​	25.6​	7​	19.05​
Jai Newcombe	2, 2021 MSD	21.3​	9.6​	24.3​	17.3​	22.6​	17​	18.68​
Clayton Oliver	4, 2015 Draft	19.8​	20.1​	15.1​	15.4​	20.1​	21.3​	18.63​
Christian Petracca	2, 2014 Draft	22​	17.1​	25.9​	13.9​	20.1​	9.1​	18.02​
Connor Rozee	5, 2018 Draft	17.8​	15.8​	15.4​	20.4​	13.2​	21.3​	17.32​
Adam Cerra	5, 2017 Draft	13.2​	22​	15.3​	23.1​	17.2​	8.1​	16.48​
Caleb Serong	8, 2019 Draft	14.1​	10.2​	15.4​	18.7​	23.4​	16.1​	16.32​
Conor Nash	Cat B Rookie	11​	16.2​	10.3​	17.9​	19​	21.8​	16.03​
Luke Parker	40, 2010 Draft	17.4​	12.3​	23.1​	11.5​	6.2​	22.7​	15.53​

Edit: Added another column for draft placement, just because it makes for a shocking contrast.

IOf it wasn't for round 6 Newcombe would be number one by a mile.

Why is he even rated so low for Rd 6?! 26 disposals, 8 marks, 10 tackles, 80% DE, 15 CP. That was a bloody good game!

 

[KermitJagger]

Why is he even rated so low for Rd 6?! 26 disposals, 8 marks, 10 tackles, 80% DE, 15 CP. That was a bloody good game!

There's a small chance that the columns got mucked up as I reported on them. I'll have a squiz.

Edit: The values on the table were correct but the rounds weren't assigned right. Have fixed.