Player Watch Welcome to Hawthorn : Jai “Duke” Newcombe - 2024 Peter Crimmins medalist

KermitJagger · May 15, 2023

Not getting a lot of love because it's just expected that he plays well these days, but he is currently the 13th highest rated player in the league, 9th highest rated mid. Interestingly, he is still the 3rd highest rated 22 year old. Pretty strong age bracket!

Just keeps on getting better.

Roddy · May 15, 2023

KermitJagger said:
Not getting a lot of love because it's just expected that he plays well these days, but he is currently the 13th highest rated player in the league, 9th highest rated mid. Interestingly, he is still the 3rd highest rated 22 year old. Pretty strong age bracket!

Just keeps on getting better.

Yep, amazing, first post in here in over a year.

Wingnut19 · May 15, 2023

He’s basically what you would expect to get from a top 5 pick in National draft. What a home run selection he was for a MSD pick.

naysayer · May 15, 2023

As Nathan Buckley said: low-anxiety player, just instinctively knows his abilities and limitations, which gives him such fluidity in the contest. Underrated marking and goal-kicking ability too. Looks a 200-gamer. Love everything about him.

MrPremiership · May 15, 2023

My favourite player

Judd2Sewell · May 15, 2023

His vice like grip on the ball when marking is special. We've seen it a couple of times this season already - where he's gone up for a fairly difficult/contested mark, grabs the ball, falls awkwardly and still holds onto it as he hits the ground with his arms still outstretched. It's amazing.

KermitJagger · May 15, 2023

MrPremiership said:
My favourite player

Mine too.

I don't like comparing players as they're all different in their own ways, but he's tracking very favourably compared to Dustin Martin and Petracca at the same age. In fact, whatever herbs and spices that go into the player rating system actually value him considerably more than both of those guys at 22. I'd say likely because he already has the capacity to play real midfield minutes unlike those two, especially Petracca who took a long time to build the tank required.

A lot of people baulk at these sort of comparisons and I'm sure I'd cop shit on the main board, but it's very hard to remember what Dusty and Petracca were like as younger players without it being coloured in some way by the football they've achieved since then. No one can be completely objective about it, where the hard stats are at least agnostic about previous and future performance.

	Newc	Dusty	Tracc
Age	22	22	22
Matches	9	23	24
Player Rating	15.27	11.1	10.9
Supercoach Points	94.6	100.4	81.6
Fantasy Points	91.6	95.7	79.4
Time On Ground	84.1	81.6	82.9
Disposals	23.1	24.2	20.3
Disposal Efficiency	75.5	69.1	65.6
Kicking Efficiency	67.7	61.3	58.2
Inside 50s	4.1	4	4.3
Metres Gained	358.3	423.9	338.3
Contested Possessions	10.9	7	9.6
Centre Clearances	2.3	0.8	0.9
Total Clearances	5.3	2.5	2.6
Marks	4.6	4.8	4
Contested Marks	0.6	0.3	0.5
Tackles	4.6	2.7	3
Goals (Average)	0.7	1	0.8
Shots At Goal	1.3	2.6	2
Goal Assists	0.4	0.6	0.9
Score Involvements	6.2	7.7	6.7
Score Involvement %	33.9	28.3	24.2

joeyhawker · May 15, 2023

Regularly kicking goals too, feels likw he's averaging around 1 a game without checking stat's...

On SM-G990E using BigFooty.com mobile app

Judd2Sewell · May 15, 2023

KermitJagger said:
Mine too.

I don't like comparing players as they're all different in their own ways, but he's tracking very favourably compared to Dustin Martin and Petracca at the same age. In fact, whatever herbs and spices that go into the player rating system actually value him considerably more than both of those guys at 22. I'd say likely because he already has the capacity to play real midfield minutes unlike those two, especially Petracca who took a long time to build the tank required.

A lot of people baulk at these sort of comparisons and I'm sure I'd cop s**t on the main board, but it's very hard to remember what Dusty and Petracca were like as younger players without it being coloured in some way by the football they've achieved since then. No one can be completely objective about it, where the hard stats are at least agnostic about previous and future performance.

Newc Dusty Tracc
Age
22
22
22
Matches
9
23
24
Player Rating
15.27
11.1
10.9
Supercoach Points
94.6
100.4
81.6
Fantasy Points
91.6
95.7
79.4
Time On Ground
84.1
81.6
82.9
Disposals
23.1
24.2
20.3
Disposal Efficiency
75.5
69.1
65.6
Kicking Efficiency
67.7
61.3
58.2
Inside 50s
4.1
4
4.3
Metres Gained
358.3
423.9
338.3
Contested Possessions
10.9
7
9.6
Centre Clearances
2.3
0.8
0.9
Total Clearances
5.3
2.5
2.6
Marks
4.6
4.8
4
Contested Marks
0.6
0.3
0.5
Tackles
4.6
2.7
3
Goals (Average)
0.7
1
0.8
Shots At Goal
1.3
2.6
2
Goal Assists
0.4
0.6
0.9
Score Involvements
6.2
7.7
6.7
Score Involvement %
33.9
28.3
24.2

He compares favourably to them both at the same age for sure.

I think though this is in part due to how dedicated, how driven and how well he prepares.

These were traits/mindset that Dusty and Petracca had not developed at this stage of their careers.

Personally (and I'm sure this was the same for 99% of AFL watchers) I thought that Dusty and Petracca always had a significant extra level they could get to - and they both reached that level once the penny dropped in terms of their off-field preparation.

Whether Newcombe has this extra level (best player in the league level) is harder to say IMO. I'm doubtful. But that doesn't matter anyway as he's already a really good midfielder and will at least push himself into that elite bracket by next season.

KermitJagger · May 15, 2023

Judd2Sewell said:
He compares favourably to them both at the same age for sure.

I think though this is in part due to how dedicated, how driven and how well he prepares.

These were traits/mindset that Dusty and Petracca had not developed at this stage of their careers.

Personally (and I'm sure this was the same for 99% of AFL watchers) I thought that Dusty and Petracca always had a significant extra level they could get to - and they both reached that level once the penny dropped in terms of their off-field preparation.

Whether Newcombe has this extra level (best player in the league level) is harder to say IMO. I'm doubtful. But that doesn't matter anyway as he's already a really good midfielder and will at least push himself into that elite bracket by next season.

"It's very hard to remember what Dusty and Petracca were like as younger players without it being coloured in some way by the football they've achieved since then."

You're proving my point a bit here. I think if you look back at Petracca prior to his break out, there certainly wasn't 99% of posters that thought he had a significant extra level. There were plenty of people with Petracca at around 2018 or 2019 that felt he might not ever make that next step, his skills were crap and he didn't look like he had the pace or explosiveness to really be the Dustin Martin style of player.

A lot of the hope for Petracca was based on where he was taken in the draft, which Newcombe doesn't get the benefit of. Newcombe has come essentially straight from country football to the AFL, and received more Brownlow votes in his second year than Petracca managed in his first 90 games.

I agree that Dustin Martin always had that extra level though, from very early on, but with some of the quarters of footy Newcombe has played this year I see a bit of the same thing in him. That last quarter against GWS he almost single handedly dragged us over the line.

He may never kick as many goals as Dusty, certainly, but I think he can be in the same ball park.

TylerDurden · May 15, 2023

Petracca did an ACL in his first year. Was coming from a long way back.

H00t · May 15, 2023

KermitJagger said:
"It's very hard to remember what Dusty and Petracca were like as younger players without it being coloured in some way by the football they've achieved since then."

You're proving my point a bit here. I think if you look back at Petracca prior to his break out, there certainly wasn't 99% of posters that thought he had a significant extra level. There were plenty of people with Petracca at around 2018 or 2019 that felt he might not ever make that next step, his skills were crap and he didn't look like he had the pace or explosiveness to really be the Dustin Martin style of player.

A lot of the hope for Petracca was based on where he was taken in the draft, which Newcombe doesn't get the benefit of. Newcombe has come essentially straight from country football to the AFL, and received more Brownlow votes in his second year than Petracca managed in his first 90 games.

I agree that Dustin Martin always had that extra level though, from very early on, but with some of the quarters of footy Newcombe has played this year I see a bit of the same thing in him. That last quarter against GWS he almost single handedly dragged us over the line.

He may never kick as many goals as Dusty, certainly, but I think he can be in the same ball park.

I think the big thing Duke has on Trac and Dusty is his fitness. He’s probably as fit now as they are at such a young age. It’s super impressive and says a lot about how hard he works.

It comes down to whether he can elevate the other parts of his game to the top levels. He’s got plenty of time. Just remains to be seen if he can.

theiaofseed · May 15, 2023

TylerDurden said:
Petracca did an ACL in his first year. Was coming from a long way back.

He was also a high first round pick that had been in the system through his teens

KermitJagger · May 15, 2023

H00t said:
I think the big thing Duke has on Trac and Dusty is his fitness. He’s probably as fit now as they are at such a young age. It’s super impressive and says a lot about how hard he works.

It comes down to whether he can elevate the other parts of his game to the top levels. He’s got plenty of time. Just remains to be seen if he can.

Solid argument to be made he already is elevating them. Second amongst mids for % of team score involvements, equal 3rd for total goals (or 7th however you want to count it, 3 people are on 9 goals, 3 people on 7 and Duke has 6).

Personally I'd love to see Newc get the benefit of the doubt like higher draft picks do. Being a mid season draftee I feel that people are more inclined to keep a lid on it, where Day being a previous first rounder is rightly getting heavy praise for his performances. **** the lids, this bloke is a jet. We don't have much to celebrate this year so why not celebrate a kid who looks to be on the same trajectory as some absolute stars of the game?

peetoo · May 15, 2023

I like to think he’ll be our de goey or stringer but clearly not a d head. Our midfield will be so strong he can add that grunt to the fwd line as well

toomanysquibs · May 15, 2023

Judd2Sewell said:
Personally (and I'm sure this was the same for 99% of AFL watchers) I thought that Dusty and Petracca always had a significant extra level they could get to - and they both reached that level once the penny dropped in terms of their off-field preparation.

That extra level is mostly being able to produce your best when it's needed, and be more consistent than you could be during the early stages of your career. Jai's still in his.

Shows flashes where he looks a level above everyone else on the ground imo. His movement in traffic is at times better than everyone else around him.

A lot of his clearance work reminds me of Martin. He has a similar gait and footwork when he's breaking away, or stepping to create space.

His kicking is probably where he's behind those two when they've been at their best.

But he's got the tools to be able to do the same damage. He's shown it with long kicks that create goals for himself and others. He'll shank them less, and become more accurate after more time in the game.

He can certainly mark as well as those two, and is physically as strong as both of them. Maybe he's not as explosive, but he wouldn't be too far behind them either.

It takes time and experience for stars to start dominating - Cyril is the only player I can remember being next level good from his first year. Everyone else took a few years.

SSSSSS · May 15, 2023

Judd2Sewell said:
His vice like grip on the ball when marking is special. We've seen it a couple of times this season already - where he's gone up for a fairly difficult/contested mark, grabs the ball, falls awkwardly and still holds onto it as he hits the ground with his arms still outstretched. It's amazing.

Riccuito-like in his ability to just stand under a ball, arms out stretched and not be moved.

Judd2Sewell · May 15, 2023

KermitJagger said:
"It's very hard to remember what Dusty and Petracca were like as younger players without it being coloured in some way by the football they've achieved since then."

You're proving my point a bit here. I think if you look back at Petracca prior to his break out, there certainly wasn't 99% of posters that thought he had a significant extra level. There were plenty of people with Petracca at around 2018 or 2019 that felt he might not ever make that next step, his skills were crap and he didn't look like he had the pace or explosiveness to really be the Dustin Martin style of player.

A lot of the hope for Petracca was based on where he was taken in the draft, which Newcombe doesn't get the benefit of. Newcombe has come essentially straight from country football to the AFL, and received more Brownlow votes in his second year than Petracca managed in his first 90 games.

I agree that Dustin Martin always had that extra level though, from very early on, but with some of the quarters of footy Newcombe has played this year I see a bit of the same thing in him. That last quarter against GWS he almost single handedly dragged us over the line.

He may never kick as many goals as Dusty, certainly, but I think he can be in the same ball park.

Maybe I was in a minority then, either way, I thought Petracca always had the potential to become one of the league's best players. My posting history will reflect this and it's not being coloured by the player he has since become.

IMO he just needed to "figure it out" like Dusty did before him.

The hope that he would become one of the best players was not based on his draft pick number, I think it's the other way around.

I think JDG and Stringer could have as well, maybe it's not too late for JDG, who looks like he's really pulled his finger out this season. IMO these powerful and explosive mid/forwards are rolled gold.

As for Newcombe - if he continues to develop his game as a resting forward then he will become one of those marquee midfielders that you can build your team around. He has the tools to become one of those powerful goal kicking mid/forwards.

Sixpence · May 15, 2023

It's hard not to be pretty bloody excited by Nuke and Day as a midfield pairing. They could be a Petracca and Bont duo!

kirbatron · May 15, 2023

Newks growth is unbelievable.

He has shown that his ceiling is a bit higher still.... a great pairing with Day.

Sixpence · May 15, 2023

Rewatched the 3rd quarter, felt like Nuke and Day's connection is getting better and better too. They were constantly feeding it to each other that quarter.

Roddy · May 15, 2023

KermitJagger said:
Mine too.

I don't like comparing players as they're all different in their own ways, but he's tracking very favourably compared to Dustin Martin and Petracca at the same age. In fact, whatever herbs and spices that go into the player rating system actually value him considerably more than both of those guys at 22. I'd say likely because he already has the capacity to play real midfield minutes unlike those two, especially Petracca who took a long time to build the tank required.

A lot of people baulk at these sort of comparisons and I'm sure I'd cop s**t on the main board, but it's very hard to remember what Dusty and Petracca were like as younger players without it being coloured in some way by the football they've achieved since then. No one can be completely objective about it, where the hard stats are at least agnostic about previous and future performance.

Newc Dusty Tracc
Age
22
22
22
Matches
9
23
24
Player Rating
15.27
11.1
10.9
Supercoach Points
94.6
100.4
81.6
Fantasy Points
91.6
95.7
79.4
Time On Ground
84.1
81.6
82.9
Disposals
23.1
24.2
20.3
Disposal Efficiency
75.5
69.1
65.6
Kicking Efficiency
67.7
61.3
58.2
Inside 50s
4.1
4
4.3
Metres Gained
358.3
423.9
338.3
Contested Possessions
10.9
7
9.6
Centre Clearances
2.3
0.8
0.9
Total Clearances
5.3
2.5
2.6
Marks
4.6
4.8
4
Contested Marks
0.6
0.3
0.5
Tackles
4.6
2.7
3
Goals (Average)
0.7
1
0.8
Shots At Goal
1.3
2.6
2
Goal Assists
0.4
0.6
0.9
Score Involvements
6.2
7.7
6.7
Score Involvement %
33.9
28.3
24.2

Wow, that’s extraordinary impressive, what an absolute gem. Will be between him and Daysy for our next captain I reckon. Depends on whom shows the greater leadership on field and around the club in the coming years…

The Jet From Poowong · May 15, 2023

KermitJagger said:
Not getting a lot of love because it's just expected that he plays well these days, but he is currently the 13th highest rated player in the league, 9th highest rated mid. Interestingly, he is still the 3rd highest rated 22 year old. Pretty strong age bracket!

Just keeps on getting better.

I think the Hawthorn faithful and club know of his standing at the club hence the No.3. If he was a top 10 pick he would be getting a lot more external kudos than he has to date. He keeps improving every year so his ceiling is an unknown.

The best MSD pick ever

When we are back smacking the opposition in finals you will hear those brain dead calls again that we rorted that MSD because we picked him when we could

MrPremiership said:
My favourite player

Mine too. Jet

Denver Day Lewis · May 15, 2023

The Jet From Poowong said:
The best MSD pick ever

Like having a dream where someone shows up at your footy club and tells you the lottery numbers. And those numbers are a winner for life.

What a kid. What a player. Perhaps the biggest highlight of the last 7-8 years post premierships?

toomanysquibs · May 15, 2023

Denver Day Lewis said:
Like having a dream where someone shows up at your footy club and tells you the lottery numbers. And those numbers are a winner for life.

What a kid. What a player. Perhaps the biggest highlight of the last 7-8 years post premierships?

Him and the others coming through in this current crop. He's the number one though, I don't think there'd be arguments from many here.

Australia v India - 4th Test Boxing Day!

Player Watch Welcome to Hawthorn : Jai “Duke” Newcombe - 2024 Peter Crimmins medalist

Moderator

Professional Thread Derailer

Brownlow Medallist

Club Legend

Cancelled

Brownlow Medallist

Brownlow Medallist

Professional Thread Derailer

Debutant

Brownlow Medallist

Professional Thread Derailer

Mischief. Mayhem. Soap

Norm Smith Medallist

Norm Smith Medallist

Professional Thread Derailer

Brownlow Medallist

Premiership Player

Brownlow Medallist

Brownlow Medallist

Brownlow Medallist

Norm Smith Medallist

Brownlow Medallist

Brownlow Medallist

Mr September

Cancelled

Premiership Player

Player Watch Welcome to Hawthorn : Jai “Duke” Newcombe - 2024 Peter Crimmins medalist

Similar threads

Log In or Create New Account