Welcome Welcome to Hawthorn : Nick 'the Wizard' Watson! Rising star Nom!

[cryptor]

Garry Lyon announced tonight on The Couch that Nick Watson is his rising star.

I’m biased but I genuinely agree.

The only RS noms that have regularly done stuff that very few in the entire comp could do at all are Harley Reid and Nick Watson. And the former has been ruled ineligible.

Others might have put together consistent seasons with good stat numbers playing midfield and half back roles, but small forward isn’t a position that gets love on stat sheets and player rating systems.

As usual it’s a popularity award voted on at the end of the season. The fact Watto has had a very strong and highlight filled finish could potentially get him over the line.

But if not, who cares. He’ll have a premiership medal soon enough.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Wilson should feel a bit robbed with the RS, given he is nearly 3 years younger than Dempsey and has comparable stats this season, whilst playing in a worse team.

I hope both he and Watson feature heavily at least.

 

[Billyc]

I think Dempsey will win it as it is measured on performance, not projection. Had Watson kicked straight, it would be his. It's a tainted award this year with Reid and Darcy ineligible so who cares. And to be fair even Darcy is in his third year and his draft peer is Nick Daicos who might win the Brownlow and would probably be going for a second if it weren't for Blanck taking him out last year.

Outside of those ineligible two, projection wise i'd have Watson leading.

 

[KermitJagger]

Wiz average player rating:

Games where he kicked 50% at goal or above (5 Games) - 12.58
Games where he kicked below 50% (11 Games) - 5.26

His games with a decent to high conversion rate would have him the second highest rated small forward in the league behind Moore, or third behind Moore and Rankine but Rankine was more mid this year.

 

[Ned Ryerson]

Even though Brown is right on this, I always feel myself getting dumber when I hear him talk

He absolutely speaks like a bloke who had his face caved in twice on the field.

 

[HawthornHawk]

Wiz average player rating:

Games where he kicked 50% at goal or above (5 Games) - 12.58
Games where he kicked below 50% (11 Games) - 5.26

His games with a decent to high conversion rate would have him the second highest rated small forward in the league behind Moore, or third behind Moore and Rankine but Rankine was more mid this year.

After the Pies game Daniel Hoyne said that he'd be a shoe in for the RS if he'd managed an AFL average conversion across the course of the season

 

[cryptor]

Wiz average player rating:

Games where he kicked 50% at goal or above (5 Games) - 12.58
Games where he kicked below 50% (11 Games) - 5.26

His games with a decent to high conversion rate would have him the second highest rated small forward in the league behind Moore, or third behind Moore and Rankine but Rankine was more mid this year.

Goals are worth a lot and are easy to measure, but I think some of his most impressive work has been around his pressure and splitting/winning aerial contests with 190cm+ opponents. Not sure those things get a lot of rating points if any.

 

[KermitJagger]

Goals are worth a lot and are easy to measure, but I think some of his most impressive work has been around his pressure and splitting/winning aerial contests with 190cm+ opponents. Not sure those things get a lot of rating points if any.

They actually do get factored in quite a bit which is why Cyril's average player rating was 15.28 across 2012 - 2016. Pretty much consistently a top 20 player in the comp.

What does hurt Wiz a bit is that inaccuracy is penalised very heavily. In the Collingwood game he went at 91.7 DE, 3 goals from 3 shots, player rating was 21.2 and easily his highest of the season.

 

[Sirlemsip]

Wilson should feel a bit robbed with the RS, given he is nearly 3 years younger than Dempsey and has comparable stats this season, whilst playing in a worse team.

I hope both he and Watson feature heavily at least.

Ineligible players (Reid and Darcy) can't be voted for. As such, my expectation is it will probably end up being:

1st - Ollie Dempsey
2nd - George Wardlaw
3rd - Nick Watson
4th - Darcy Wilson
5th - Darcy Jones

Other players that will get some votes: McKercher, Roberts, Humphries, Lohmann

 

[Judd2Sewell]

Ineligible players (Reid and Darcy) can't be voted for. As such, my expectation is it will probably end up being:

1st - Ollie Dempsey
2nd - George Wardlaw
3rd - Nick Watson
4th - Darcy Wilson
5th - Darcy Jones

Other players that will get some votes: McKercher, Roberts, Humphries, Lohmann

Lohmann
Poss - 11.35
Marks - 3.83
Tackles - 2.96
Goals - 1.17 (27 total)
Behinds - 1.09 (25 total)
Goal Assists - 0.35 (8 total)
Inside 50's - 1.96
Score Inv. - 5.00
1%ers - 0.96

Watson
Poss - 10.94
Marks - 2.09
Tackles - 1.74
Goals - 1.13 (18 total)
Behinds - 1.56 (25 total)
Goal Assists - 0.75 (12 total)
Inside 50's - 2.25
Score Inv. - 5.56
1%ers - 0.88

Dempsey
Poss - 17.65
Marks - 4.30
Tackles - 2.48
Goals - 0.91 (21 total)
Behinds - 0.48 (11 total)
Goal Assists - 1.00
Inside 50's - 2.30
Score Inv. - 5.43
1%ers - 1.00

Wilson
Poss - 15.35
Marks - 4.26
Tackles - 2.09
Goals - 0.65 (15 total)
Behinds - 0.61 (14 total)
Goal Assists - 0.43 (10 total)
Inside 50's - 2.43
Score Inv. - 3.39
1%ers - 0.91

Based on the stats you'd probably go:
Dempsey
Wilson
Watson = Lohmann

On a side note, Dempsey is the same age as MacDonald.

 

[Leather Poisoning]

You are not alone. About as entertaining as a turd that won’t flush

"just kick it the big fellas so they can mark it. Blokes like Jessi Yogen"

 

[Leather Poisoning]

He's way off getting the rising star. He's had a good season - but Demsey well ahead. So too is Darcy (ineligible). I dunno if Reid's season has been better than Watson's though? Reid has some good moments but I think he's really struggled to find his groove yet. He will and he'll be awesome, but take out the fact he was pick 1 and I don't think he'd be getting discussed.

 

[libbylou]

We know what happened to Cyril with the RSM so I wouldn't be expecting too much.

 

[The hands of stone]

Ineligible players (Reid and Darcy) can't be voted for. As such, my expectation is it will probably end up being:

1st - Ollie Dempsey
2nd - George Wardlaw
3rd - Nick Watson
4th - Darcy Wilson
5th - Darcy Jones

Other players that will get some votes: McKercher, Roberts, Humphries, Lohmann

I think Watson will come 2nd based on his finish to the season . Rest pretty spot on .

Dempsey is a very good player . Obviously rules allow it but not sure a 3rd year player should be eligible.
2 extra pre seasons and VFL games is a pretty decent advantage over new draftees out of the under 18s .
It's a minor thing but I would like it limited to players in their first year in the system.
( Yes that means Wardlaw too )

 

[tommyk72]

Watson won’t win. May have been a better chance had he played every game.

He’ll have to settle for a norm smith.

 

[RCAB]

Dempsey is over 2 years older than Watson, he really isn't well ahead of Watson.

Dempsey is 21, he's competing with the likes of Daicos, JHF, Weddle and D'Ambrosio. He's behind those guys.

 

[KermitJagger]

Lohmann
Poss - 11.35
Marks - 3.83
Tackles - 2.96
Goals - 1.17 (27 total)
Behinds - 1.09 (25 total)
Goal Assists - 0.35 (8 total)
Inside 50's - 1.96
Score Inv. - 5.00
1%ers - 0.96

Watson
Poss - 10.94
Marks - 2.09
Tackles - 1.74
Goals - 1.13 (18 total)
Behinds - 1.56 (25 total)
Goal Assists - 0.75 (12 total)
Inside 50's - 1.61
Score Inv. - 3.87
1%ers - 0.88

Dempsey
Poss - 17.65
Marks - 4.30
Tackles - 2.48
Goals - 0.91 (21 total)
Behinds - 0.48 (11 total)
Goal Assists - 1.00
Inside 50's - 2.30
Score Inv. - 5.43
1%ers - 1.00

Wilson
Poss - 15.35
Marks - 4.26
Tackles - 2.09
Goals - 0.65 (15 total)
Behinds - 0.61 (14 total)
Goal Assists - 0.43 (10 total)
Inside 50's - 2.43
Score Inv. - 3.39
1%ers - 0.91

Based on the stats you'd probably go:
Dempsey
Wilson
Watson = Lohmann

On a side note, Dempsey is the same age as MacDonald.

I think you've got your wires crossed with Watson's stats. He's averaging 2.3 I50s, 5.6 score involvements.

The other thing which is important to note is that Watson is also targeted in more 1:1 situations than the others and he has the best win rate of the 4 with 30.8%. He's actually got one of the best 1:1 win rates in the comp amongst small/medium forwards - on par with Jamie Elliott, better than Willie Rioli, Charlie Cameron, Jake Stringer.

 

[skwunk]

I think you've got your wires crossed with Watson's stats. He's averaging 2.3 I50s, 5.6 score involvements.

The other thing which is important to note is that Watson is also targeted in more 1:1 situations than the others and he has the best win rate of the 4 with 30.8%.

I was about to say those score involvements seemed crazy low, he's had 30 score involvements in the last 3 weeks alone.

 

[KermitJagger]

I was about to say those score involvements seemed crazy low, he's had 30 score involvements in the last 3 weeks alone.

Imagine the averages might be assuming a full season or something.

 

[Judd2Sewell]

I think you've got your wires crossed with Watson's stats. He's averaging 2.3 I50s, 5.6 score involvements.

The other thing which is important to note is that Watson is also targeted in more 1:1 situations than the others and he has the best win rate of the 4 with 30.8%.

I just have, I'll double check and adjust. Edit: adjusted

I wanted to include pressure acts too, as I figured that would favor Watson. But I can't find the numbers and couldn't be bothered going through each game individually on the AFL app.

 

[KermitJagger]

I just have, I'll double check and adjust.

I wanted to include pressure acts too, as I figured that would favor Watson. But I can't find the numbers and couldn't be bothered going through each game individually on the AFL app.

FWIW Wiz actually has the fewest pressure acts, but the equal 2nd most tackles and the equal most tackles I50. I'm not sure what I think about pressure acts any more, I did a deep dive into what constitutes pressure rating / pressure acts / pressure points recently and pressure acts is a pretty useless measure.

They're just a count of the action, someone who chases 25 times a game will have 25 pressure acts, where someone who applies physical pressure 15 times will have 15 pressure acts. The difference is in terms of how CD value those in terms of points, chasing is 1.2 and physical pressure is 3.75. The player with 25 pressure acts from chasing will have a pressure point rating of 30 and the player with 15 physical pressure acts will have a rating of 56.25.

For some reason they make the pressure acts stat publicly available but not the much more useful pressure points stat. Just Champion Data things.

	Tackles	Tackles I50	Pressure Acts	Avg Shots	Avg Goals	Score Inv	Off 1:1 Win Rate
Watson	2.5​	1.1​	12.7​	3.3​	1.1​	5.6​	30.8​
Dempsey	2.5​	0.8​	13.3​	1.9​	0.9​	5.4​	23.5​
Lohmann	3​	1.1​	15.8​	2.6​	1.2​	5​	9.1​
Wilson	2.1​	0.7​	14.3​	1.5​	0.7​	3.4​	N/A

 

[RCAB]

FWIW Wiz actually has the fewest pressure acts, but the equal 2nd most tackles and the equal most tackles I50. I'm not sure what I think about pressure acts any more, I did a deep dive into what constitutes pressure rating / pressure acts / pressure points recently and pressure acts is a pretty useless measure.

They're just a count of the action, someone who chases 25 times a game will have 25 pressure acts, where someone who applies physical pressure 15 times will have 15 pressure acts. The difference is in terms of how CD value those in terms of points, chasing is 1.2 and physical pressure is 3.75. The player with 25 pressure acts from chasing will have a pressure point rating of 30 and the player with 15 physical pressure acts will have a rating of 56.25.

For some reason they make the pressure acts stat publicly available but not the much more useful pressure points stat. Just Champion Data things.

	Tackles	Tackles I50	Pressure Acts	Avg Shots	Avg Goals	Score Inv	Off 1:1 Win Rate
Watson	2.5​	1.1​	12.7​	3.3​	1.1​	5.6​	30.8​
Dempsey	2.5​	0.8​	13.3​	1.9​	0.9​	5.4​	23.5​
Lohmann	3​	1.1​	15.8​	2.6​	1.2​	5​	9.1​
Wilson	2.1​	0.7​	14.3​	1.5​	0.7​	3.4​	N/A

A player could be running half arsed at the ball carrier and it will count as a pressure act.

Rioli rarely cracked the top 100 on pressure acts per game, yes, per-game. Actually, the year he won the Norm Smith he was ranked 100th in the league.

Yes, the best pressure player in the league was ranked 100th for pressure acts.

 

[Snoref]

He plays like a more skilful poppy, not quite like Cyril as he is probably more athletic than Cyril but Cyril was more skilful.

 

[CHUBBSS]

If Dempsey wins the rising star it will be like Homer beating all those kids in the power plant competition

Anyway I reckon Watson will end up top 2 from his draft class, his just so unique and he hasn’t even added his strength and running power yet, going to be frighteningly good

 

[crazywildhorse]

He absolutely speaks like a bloke who had his face caved in twice on the field.

“Aarh yeah, aaarh aargh nah, yeah aaarh yeah, I reckon, yeah”