Werewolf Werewolf - The US Election Edition - REPUBLICANS WIN!

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The 538 End of Day 1 Forecast

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Unfortunately, Nate shares the same hair stylist as Mike Pence and she
wasn't really in the mood to keep working tonight.

The algorithm has been adjusted again to try and take into account the horrible events of earlier this evening. The one change that made exactly zero difference was the Green Party's Howie Hawkins being found dead after not being able to get into the debate venue because no-one believed that he was actually a Presidential candidate. Sure, it's a sad day for his family, but we here at 538 care not for emotions (or personal grooming). We care only about the statistics, which, seems timely to bring you our latest forecast:

Republican = 18%
Democrat = 18%
Undecided = 64%
 
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Dickheads - I am a vig - head of the greens.

if I survive these morons protect me tonight Doc.
Nice ambush TIF and other evil dems and Pubs - up the Revolution!
Firstly, mice nelt.

Secondly, what sort of a shit vig draws that much attention to themselves on day one and comes off looking like blatant evil trying to deflect?

You practically parked your free candy van alongside the school carnival mate.

I simply returned the favour because I almost missed deadline and didn't have time to read up, but I'll give you there's clearly evil in the wagon that jumped on.

What a debacle. 🤦‍♂️
 

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4 Repulicans + 4 Democrats left.
28 players remaining. I guess that means Hoos wasn't modkilled after all.

REP 28 * 18% = 5.04 (5)
DEM 28 * 18% = 5.04 (5)
Undecided 28 * 64% = 17.92 (18)

We can also confirm that whoever the Republican & Democrat PM's kept the stolen votes they stole in N0 safe today through all the chaos.
 
With a country still reeling from the Booger Hole Bloodbath, news overnight of even more death and carnage started to bring out even more division. Accusations of terrorism towards the right-wing militia patrolling many US cities abounded on CNN and an expose from the New York Times about a the power of a resurgent Ku Klux Klan in the South seemed to support that notion. Meanwhile, Fox News commentators were all reading from the same script denouncing Antifa and the socialist agenda of the Democrats as the reasons behind the escalating violence.

However, the most surprising news of all was that Mike Pence's killer had somehow been caught and eliminated. In fact, it was so outlandish that a ghost - and not just any ghost, but the ghost of Lee Harvey Oswald - could be responsible for the Vice President's death, that it was only reported on OAN Network. Everyone else just thought it was nonsense until President Trump retweeted it out to his millions of supporters, sparking an even wilder conspiracy theory about the lizard people controlling the world: GHOST LIZARD PEOPLE!!!

Hoos (American Public) taken out by Republicans
por_please_ya (American Public) clinically executed by Democrats
beez (American Public) died alone in hospital thanks to Karen O'Firus
Mister M (Lee Harvey Oswald's Ghost) dispersed from this world once and for all by Q
 

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The 528 End of Night 2 Forecast

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I observe. That's what I do.

I've been stuck in an hours-long meetings arguing means vs medians in statistical reporting and it's not going to let up soon, so here's the skinny:

Republicans - 25%
Democrats - 17%
Undecided - 58%


It looks like incumbency might be holding the Republicans in good stead as they inch closer to that magic 50% mark ...
 
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